Manhattan
Metro Atlantic Athletic
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-9.5#329
Expected Predictive Rating-6.5#277
Pace69.8#165
Improvement-0.4#227

Offense
Total Offense-4.7#307
First Shot-2.8#257
After Offensive Rebound-1.9#273
Layup/Dunks-4.5#313
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.3#152
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.4#167
Freethrows+1.0#140
Improvement+0.9#68

Defense
Total Defense-4.9#328
First Shot-1.9#246
After Offensive Rebounds-3.0#324
Layups/Dunks-3.4#289
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.0#126
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.3#231
Freethrows+1.8#88
Improvement-1.3#318
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 1.8% 2.4% 1.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.8 15.7 15.9
.500 or above 18.4% 26.4% 9.8%
.500 or above in Conference 28.5% 34.5% 22.1%
Conference Champion 1.6% 2.3% 0.9%
Last Place in Conference 17.9% 14.0% 22.1%
First Four1.1% 1.3% 0.8%
First Round1.3% 1.8% 0.7%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Army (Home) - 51.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 10 - 2
Quad 31 - 41 - 6
Quad 410 - 1211 - 18


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 30   @ Maryland L 49-79 2%     0 - 1 -14.2 -15.4 +1.8
  Nov 15, 2024 162   Fordham W 78-76 27%     1 - 1 -1.2 +0.3 -1.7
  Nov 17, 2024 347   @ Fairleigh Dickinson L 82-85 50%     1 - 2 -12.6 +3.4 -16.0
  Nov 22, 2024 293   Army W 68-67 52%    
  Nov 26, 2024 58   @ Virginia L 51-73 2%    
  Nov 29, 2024 337   Le Moyne W 74-70 66%    
  Dec 06, 2024 180   @ St. Peter's L 60-72 14%    
  Dec 08, 2024 233   Marist L 68-71 40%    
  Dec 18, 2024 281   @ Wagner L 58-64 28%    
  Dec 21, 2024 279   @ Presbyterian L 70-76 29%    
  Jan 03, 2025 306   @ Siena L 66-70 34%    
  Jan 05, 2025 242   @ Rider L 68-77 22%    
  Jan 10, 2025 278   Mount St. Mary's L 71-72 48%    
  Jan 12, 2025 223   @ Merrimack L 63-73 20%    
  Jan 18, 2025 324   Niagara W 74-72 58%    
  Jan 23, 2025 271   Fairfield L 70-71 47%    
  Jan 25, 2025 278   @ Mount St. Mary's L 69-75 29%    
  Jan 31, 2025 247   Iona L 70-72 42%    
  Feb 02, 2025 333   @ Sacred Heart L 75-77 43%    
  Feb 08, 2025 180   St. Peter's L 63-69 32%    
  Feb 14, 2025 223   Merrimack L 66-70 38%    
  Feb 16, 2025 271   @ Fairfield L 67-74 28%    
  Feb 21, 2025 247   @ Iona L 67-75 25%    
  Feb 23, 2025 225   Quinnipiac L 72-76 38%    
  Feb 28, 2025 351   @ Canisius W 73-72 52%    
  Mar 02, 2025 324   @ Niagara L 71-75 38%    
  Mar 06, 2025 333   Sacred Heart W 78-74 63%    
  Mar 08, 2025 306   Siena W 69-67 55%    
Projected Record 10 - 18 8 - 12




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Metro Atlantic Athletic Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 1.6 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.0 0.5 0.1 0.0 2.6 2nd
3rd 0.2 0.9 1.5 0.6 0.1 0.0 3.3 3rd
4th 0.0 0.1 1.1 1.9 1.0 0.2 0.0 4.3 4th
5th 0.1 1.2 2.5 1.5 0.2 0.0 5.5 5th
6th 0.0 0.9 3.0 2.3 0.4 0.0 6.7 6th
7th 0.0 0.7 3.2 3.4 0.7 0.0 8.0 7th
8th 0.0 0.6 3.1 4.1 1.2 0.1 9.1 8th
9th 0.1 0.6 2.8 4.6 2.0 0.1 10.1 9th
10th 0.0 0.7 3.1 5.0 2.3 0.3 0.0 11.5 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 1.0 3.4 4.9 2.7 0.5 0.0 12.6 11th
12th 0.1 0.4 1.7 3.9 4.5 2.2 0.4 0.0 13.2 12th
13th 0.3 1.2 2.7 3.3 2.6 1.2 0.2 0.0 11.6 13th
Total 0.3 1.3 3.1 5.1 7.5 9.8 11.0 11.6 11.2 10.5 9.0 6.9 4.9 3.5 2.1 1.1 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 Total



Metro Atlantic Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
19-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0
18-2 100.0% 0.1    0.1 0.0
17-3 92.1% 0.3    0.2 0.0 0.0
16-4 73.3% 0.4    0.3 0.1 0.0
15-5 39.9% 0.4    0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
14-6 15.0% 0.3    0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
13-7 2.3% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 1.6% 1.6 0.8 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.0% 0.0
19-1 0.0% 0.0 0.0
18-2 0.1% 30.3% 30.3% 14.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
17-3 0.3% 21.9% 21.9% 14.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2
16-4 0.6% 15.5% 15.5% 15.2 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.5
15-5 1.1% 14.6% 14.6% 15.5 0.0 0.1 0.1 1.0
14-6 2.1% 12.8% 12.8% 15.8 0.0 0.0 0.2 1.8
13-7 3.5% 8.1% 8.1% 15.8 0.0 0.2 3.2
12-8 4.9% 5.8% 5.8% 16.0 0.0 0.3 4.6
11-9 6.9% 3.5% 3.5% 16.0 0.0 0.2 6.6
10-10 9.0% 1.8% 1.8% 16.0 0.0 0.2 8.9
9-11 10.5% 1.1% 1.1% 16.0 0.1 10.4
8-12 11.2% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.1 11.1
7-13 11.6% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 11.6
6-14 11.0% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 11.0
5-15 9.8% 9.8
4-16 7.5% 7.5
3-17 5.1% 5.1
2-18 3.1% 3.1
1-19 1.3% 1.3
0-20 0.3% 0.3
Total 100% 1.8% 1.8% 0.0% 15.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 1.5 98.2 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.1%