Portland
West Coast
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-6.7#289
Expected Predictive Rating-2.0#213
Pace68.7#194
Improvement+1.9#26

Offense
Total Offense-3.6#277
First Shot-0.4#199
After Offensive Rebound-3.2#332
Layup/Dunks-4.2#305
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.6#138
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.7#68
Freethrows-0.5#213
Improvement+1.3#34

Defense
Total Defense-3.2#277
First Shot-4.9#319
After Offensive Rebounds+1.8#70
Layups/Dunks-0.4#179
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.6#237
3 Pt Jumpshots-6.2#341
Freethrows+2.3#66
Improvement+0.6#96
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 12.0 14.0 11.3
.500 or above 3.8% 10.0% 2.4%
.500 or above in Conference 4.5% 7.8% 3.8%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 33.2% 23.9% 35.2%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: South Florida (Neutral) - 18.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 30 - 3
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 5
Quad 20 - 40 - 9
Quad 32 - 62 - 15
Quad 46 - 58 - 20


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2024 130   UC Santa Barbara L 53-94 29%     0 - 1 -41.9 -24.0 -16.6
  Nov 12, 2024 39   @ Oregon L 70-80 OT 4%     0 - 2 +4.4 -4.2 +9.9
  Nov 16, 2024 263   @ Long Beach St. W 63-61 33%     1 - 2 -0.3 -2.2 +2.2
  Nov 21, 2024 120   South Florida L 66-76 18%    
  Dec 01, 2024 294   Denver W 76-73 62%    
  Dec 06, 2024 123   @ Kent St. L 63-75 13%    
  Dec 10, 2024 217   UMKC L 69-70 46%    
  Dec 18, 2024 237   Cal St. Bakersfield W 69-68 50%    
  Dec 21, 2024 240   Lafayette W 68-67 51%    
  Dec 28, 2024 79   Washington St. L 68-79 16%    
  Dec 30, 2024 96   @ Oregon St. L 60-75 9%    
  Jan 02, 2025 1   @ Gonzaga L 61-93 0.2%   
  Jan 04, 2025 43   St. Mary's L 62-77 10%    
  Jan 09, 2025 57   @ San Francisco L 62-81 5%    
  Jan 16, 2025 291   Pacific W 73-70 61%    
  Jan 18, 2025 79   @ Washington St. L 65-82 7%    
  Jan 23, 2025 298   San Diego W 75-71 63%    
  Jan 25, 2025 1   Gonzaga L 64-90 1%    
  Jan 30, 2025 154   @ Loyola Marymount L 63-73 19%    
  Feb 01, 2025 248   @ Pepperdine L 70-75 32%    
  Feb 06, 2025 97   Santa Clara L 70-79 22%    
  Feb 13, 2025 96   Oregon St. L 63-72 22%    
  Feb 15, 2025 154   Loyola Marymount L 66-70 36%    
  Feb 19, 2025 43   @ St. Mary's L 59-80 4%    
  Feb 22, 2025 291   @ Pacific L 70-73 40%    
  Feb 27, 2025 248   Pepperdine W 73-72 53%    
  Mar 01, 2025 298   @ San Diego L 72-74 41%    
Projected Record 8 - 19 4 - 14




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected West Coast Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.3 3rd
4th 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.9 4th
5th 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.9 0.6 0.1 0.0 2.1 5th
6th 0.1 1.1 2.1 1.2 0.2 4.7 6th
7th 0.0 0.4 2.7 4.1 2.2 0.3 0.0 9.7 7th
8th 0.0 1.1 5.8 6.7 2.7 0.4 0.0 16.6 8th
9th 0.1 2.2 8.4 7.8 2.3 0.2 0.0 21.1 9th
10th 0.3 3.9 9.7 7.1 1.7 0.1 22.8 10th
11th 2.1 6.4 8.2 4.3 0.8 0.0 21.8 11th
Total 2.1 6.7 12.1 16.3 17.5 15.7 11.9 8.1 5.0 2.6 1.3 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 Total



West Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 0.0%
13-5 0.0%
12-6 0.0%
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 0.0% 0.0 0.0
13-5 0.0% 0.0
12-6 0.2% 2.7% 2.7% 11.5 0.0 0.0 0.2
11-7 0.5% 0.5
10-8 1.3% 1.3
9-9 2.6% 0.1% 0.1% 14.0 0.0 2.6
8-10 5.0% 5.0
7-11 8.1% 8.1
6-12 11.9% 11.9
5-13 15.7% 15.7
4-14 17.5% 17.5
3-15 16.3% 16.3
2-16 12.1% 12.1
1-17 6.7% 6.7
0-18 2.1% 2.1
Total 100% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 12.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.4%