UC Davis
Big West
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-3.5#223
Expected Predictive Rating+1.4#148
Pace74.4#56
Improvement-2.8#321

Offense
Total Offense-6.3#339
First Shot-2.2#236
After Offensive Rebound-4.1#353
Layup/Dunks-4.5#329
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.6#47
3 Pt Jumpshots-4.3#308
Freethrows+3.9#13
Improvement-2.4#333

Defense
Total Defense+2.8#99
First Shot+3.5#74
After Offensive Rebounds-0.6#238
Layups/Dunks+0.7#143
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.7#128
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.9#55
Freethrows-0.9#248
Improvement-0.4#216
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 1.4% 1.9% 0.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.9 13.8 14.1
.500 or above 33.5% 46.7% 22.4%
.500 or above in Conference 45.4% 60.2% 32.9%
Conference Champion 1.1% 1.9% 0.4%
Last Place in Conference 5.6% 1.9% 8.7%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round1.4% 1.9% 0.9%
Second Round0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Cal St. Bakersfield (Away) - 45.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 2
Quad 21 - 51 - 6
Quad 33 - 65 - 13
Quad 49 - 414 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 05, 2024 95   @ Washington L 73-79 14%     0 - 1 +2.4 -5.5 +8.8
  Nov 07, 2024 259   @ Idaho W 79-75 45%     1 - 1 +1.7 -1.1 +2.6
  Nov 17, 2024 94   @ Stanford L 65-79 13%     1 - 2 -5.6 -7.0 +1.9
  Nov 20, 2024 107   @ Grand Canyon W 75-68 15%     2 - 2 +14.4 +2.5 +11.5
  Nov 25, 2024 184   Norfolk St. L 55-76 53%     2 - 3 -25.2 -20.5 -4.8
  Nov 30, 2024 69   @ Oregon St. L 57-90 10%     2 - 4 -22.1 -5.9 -18.5
  Dec 05, 2024 271   Cal Poly W 77-66 70%     3 - 4 1 - 0 +2.1 -12.4 +12.9
  Dec 07, 2024 146   UC Santa Barbara W 71-60 46%     4 - 4 2 - 0 +8.5 +0.5 +8.6
  Dec 14, 2024 335   @ Sacramento St. W 69-62 66%     5 - 4 -0.7 -2.7 +2.2
  Dec 18, 2024 259   Idaho W 74-66 68%     6 - 4 -0.3 -6.9 +6.6
  Dec 21, 2024 204   @ Pepperdine L 46-85 33%     6 - 5 -37.9 -25.7 -12.3
  Jan 02, 2025 260   @ Cal St. Bakersfield L 66-67 46%    
  Jan 04, 2025 153   @ Cal St. Northridge L 71-78 27%    
  Jan 09, 2025 278   Cal St. Fullerton W 70-64 71%    
  Jan 11, 2025 258   Long Beach St. W 71-66 67%    
  Jan 16, 2025 271   @ Cal Poly L 79-80 47%    
  Jan 18, 2025 146   @ UC Santa Barbara L 66-73 26%    
  Jan 23, 2025 166   Hawaii L 67-68 50%    
  Jan 30, 2025 177   @ UC Riverside L 66-72 31%    
  Feb 01, 2025 77   @ UC Irvine L 61-75 10%    
  Feb 06, 2025 258   @ Long Beach St. L 68-69 45%    
  Feb 08, 2025 278   @ Cal St. Fullerton L 66-67 50%    
  Feb 13, 2025 177   UC Riverside W 70-69 51%    
  Feb 15, 2025 90   @ UC San Diego L 63-76 12%    
  Feb 20, 2025 260   Cal St. Bakersfield W 69-64 67%    
  Feb 22, 2025 153   Cal St. Northridge L 74-75 47%    
  Mar 02, 2025 166   @ Hawaii L 65-71 29%    
  Mar 06, 2025 77   UC Irvine L 64-72 23%    
  Mar 08, 2025 90   UC San Diego L 66-73 27%    
Projected Record 13 - 16 9 - 11




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 1.1 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 1.1 1.3 0.8 0.2 0.0 0.0 3.8 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 1.3 3.3 3.2 1.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 9.7 3rd
4th 0.0 0.2 2.1 4.9 3.9 1.2 0.1 12.4 4th
5th 0.2 2.4 6.2 4.3 1.1 0.1 0.0 14.2 5th
6th 0.1 2.2 6.5 4.7 1.1 0.1 14.7 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 1.9 6.2 4.9 1.0 0.0 14.2 7th
8th 0.1 1.5 5.2 4.5 1.0 0.0 12.3 8th
9th 0.1 1.2 3.6 3.4 0.8 0.0 9.1 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.8 2.3 2.1 0.6 0.0 6.0 10th
11th 0.1 0.5 0.9 0.9 0.3 0.0 2.6 11th
Total 0.1 0.6 1.8 4.4 7.6 11.2 13.9 15.0 14.3 11.7 8.6 5.6 3.1 1.4 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0 Total



Big West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0
18-2 95.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
17-3 86.0% 0.2    0.1 0.0
16-4 53.4% 0.3    0.1 0.2 0.0
15-5 24.3% 0.3    0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
14-6 6.3% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.9% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0% 0.0    0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 1.1% 1.1 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1 0.0% 0.0 0.0
18-2 0.0% 25.0% 25.0% 12.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
17-3 0.2% 16.1% 16.1% 12.4 0.0 0.0 0.2
16-4 0.6% 14.3% 14.3% 12.9 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.5
15-5 1.4% 11.7% 11.7% 13.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 1.2
14-6 3.1% 6.9% 6.9% 13.6 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 2.9
13-7 5.6% 4.8% 4.8% 13.7 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 5.3
12-8 8.6% 2.6% 2.6% 14.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 8.4
11-9 11.7% 1.4% 1.4% 14.5 0.0 0.1 0.1 11.5
10-10 14.3% 0.8% 0.8% 14.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 14.1
9-11 15.0% 0.5% 0.5% 15.2 0.0 0.1 0.0 15.0
8-12 13.9% 0.1% 0.1% 15.9 0.0 0.0 13.8
7-13 11.2% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 11.2
6-14 7.6% 7.6
5-15 4.4% 4.4
4-16 1.8% 1.8
3-17 0.6% 0.6
2-18 0.1% 0.1
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 1.4% 1.4% 0.0% 13.9 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.3 0.0 98.6 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.1%