UC Davis
Big West
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+0.9#147
Expected Predictive Rating+6.6#85
Pace78.1#26
Improvement+1.6#45

Offense
Total Offense-2.4#244
First Shot-1.7#235
After Offensive Rebound-0.7#220
Layup/Dunks-3.8#300
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.0#81
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.4#231
Freethrows+1.5#102
Improvement-0.9#302

Defense
Total Defense+3.3#82
First Shot+3.4#78
After Offensive Rebounds-0.1#194
Layups/Dunks+1.3#128
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.4#39
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.0#142
Freethrows-1.3#252
Improvement+2.5#3
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 8.2% 9.3% 5.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 12.8 12.7 13.1
.500 or above 71.9% 78.7% 56.4%
.500 or above in Conference 72.8% 76.1% 65.4%
Conference Champion 8.9% 10.5% 5.1%
Last Place in Conference 2.7% 2.1% 4.1%
First Four0.1% 0.0% 0.1%
First Round8.2% 9.3% 5.7%
Second Round1.3% 1.5% 0.8%
Sweet Sixteen0.2% 0.2% 0.3%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Norfolk St. (Home) - 69.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 21 - 31 - 5
Quad 35 - 57 - 10
Quad 411 - 317 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 05, 2024 83   @ Washington L 73-79 20%     0 - 1 +3.9 -4.4 +9.2
  Nov 07, 2024 285   @ Idaho W 79-75 66%     1 - 1 +0.8 +0.9 -0.3
  Nov 17, 2024 74   @ Stanford L 65-79 18%     1 - 2 -3.3 -5.9 +3.1
  Nov 20, 2024 107   @ Grand Canyon W 75-68 28%     2 - 2 +14.1 +0.7 +12.9
  Nov 25, 2024 192   Norfolk St. W 74-69 69%    
  Nov 30, 2024 98   @ Oregon St. L 67-74 25%    
  Dec 05, 2024 269   Cal Poly W 84-74 81%    
  Dec 07, 2024 128   UC Santa Barbara W 76-74 56%    
  Dec 14, 2024 306   @ Sacramento St. W 70-64 70%    
  Dec 18, 2024 285   Idaho W 78-68 82%    
  Dec 21, 2024 245   @ Pepperdine W 75-73 57%    
  Jan 02, 2025 237   @ Cal St. Bakersfield W 71-69 56%    
  Jan 04, 2025 194   @ Cal St. Northridge L 78-79 48%    
  Jan 09, 2025 275   Cal St. Fullerton W 75-65 80%    
  Jan 11, 2025 262   Long Beach St. W 75-66 79%    
  Jan 16, 2025 269   @ Cal Poly W 81-77 61%    
  Jan 18, 2025 128   @ UC Santa Barbara L 73-77 35%    
  Jan 23, 2025 174   Hawaii W 73-68 66%    
  Jan 30, 2025 199   @ UC Riverside L 73-74 48%    
  Feb 01, 2025 56   @ UC Irvine L 66-77 17%    
  Feb 06, 2025 262   @ Long Beach St. W 72-69 62%    
  Feb 08, 2025 275   @ Cal St. Fullerton W 72-68 62%    
  Feb 13, 2025 199   UC Riverside W 76-70 68%    
  Feb 15, 2025 149   @ UC San Diego L 71-74 40%    
  Feb 20, 2025 237   Cal St. Bakersfield W 74-66 74%    
  Feb 22, 2025 194   Cal St. Northridge W 81-76 68%    
  Mar 02, 2025 174   @ Hawaii L 70-71 46%    
  Mar 06, 2025 56   UC Irvine L 69-74 33%    
  Mar 08, 2025 149   UC San Diego W 74-71 61%    
Projected Record 16 - 13 11 - 9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.9 1.7 2.2 2.4 1.3 0.3 0.1 8.9 1st
2nd 0.1 1.0 2.6 5.4 4.8 2.6 0.8 0.1 17.3 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.4 4.4 5.6 3.3 1.1 0.1 16.0 3rd
4th 0.1 1.8 5.1 4.9 2.0 0.3 0.0 14.3 4th
5th 0.0 0.1 1.3 4.4 4.6 1.3 0.2 0.0 11.9 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 1.0 3.7 3.7 1.0 0.2 9.7 6th
7th 0.1 0.8 2.8 3.1 0.9 0.1 7.8 7th
8th 0.0 0.5 1.9 2.4 0.7 0.1 5.6 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.5 1.5 1.9 0.6 0.0 4.4 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.9 0.9 0.4 0.0 2.7 10th
11th 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.0 1.5 11th
Total 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.8 1.7 3.1 5.1 6.9 8.9 11.0 12.2 11.8 10.6 9.8 7.7 4.9 3.1 1.4 0.3 0.1 Total



Big West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
19-1 100.0% 0.3    0.3
18-2 95.1% 1.3    1.1 0.2
17-3 75.8% 2.4    1.7 0.7 0.0
16-4 44.3% 2.2    1.2 0.9 0.1
15-5 22.7% 1.7    0.7 0.8 0.2 0.0
14-6 8.7% 0.9    0.2 0.4 0.2
13-7 0.8% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.1% 0.0    0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 8.9% 8.9 5.2 2.9 0.6 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.1% 34.5% 34.5% 11.5 0.0 0.0 0.0
19-1 0.3% 46.4% 42.7% 3.6% 11.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 6.3%
18-2 1.4% 43.7% 43.7% 11.7 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.8
17-3 3.1% 32.7% 32.7% 12.0 0.0 0.2 0.7 0.2 2.1
16-4 4.9% 28.3% 28.3% 12.3 0.1 0.8 0.4 0.0 3.5
15-5 7.7% 18.1% 18.1% 12.7 0.5 0.7 0.2 6.3
14-6 9.8% 13.3% 13.3% 13.0 0.0 0.3 0.7 0.3 8.5
13-7 10.6% 9.7% 9.7% 13.3 0.1 0.5 0.4 0.0 9.6
12-8 11.8% 4.0% 4.0% 13.4 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 11.3
11-9 12.2% 3.9% 3.9% 13.7 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.0 11.8
10-10 11.0% 2.0% 2.0% 14.5 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 10.8
9-11 8.9% 1.5% 1.5% 14.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 8.7
8-12 6.9% 0.5% 0.5% 15.3 0.0 0.0 6.9
7-13 5.1% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 5.1
6-14 3.1% 3.1
5-15 1.7% 1.7
4-16 0.8% 0.8
3-17 0.4% 0.4
2-18 0.2% 0.2
1-19 0.0% 0.0
0-20
Total 100% 8.2% 8.2% 0.0% 12.8 0.0 0.0 0.5 2.9 3.0 1.4 0.3 0.1 91.8 0.0%