Utah St.
Mountain West
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+10.9#45
Expected Predictive Rating+18.8#14
Pace73.9#65
Improvement-1.7#301

Offense
Total Offense+5.6#46
First Shot+4.7#60
After Offensive Rebound+0.9#126
Layup/Dunks+5.3#38
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.8#217
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.3#282
Freethrows+3.5#34
Improvement-2.6#347

Defense
Total Defense+5.3#41
First Shot+6.4#21
After Offensive Rebounds-1.1#258
Layups/Dunks+5.3#41
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.6#329
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.6#242
Freethrows+5.3#2
Improvement+0.9#99
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.4% 0.4% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 1.1% 1.1% 0.2%
Top 4 Seed 5.0% 5.2% 1.4%
Top 6 Seed 11.4% 12.0% 3.5%
NCAA Tourney Bid 52.8% 54.0% 35.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 39.9% 41.2% 23.3%
Average Seed 8.6 8.5 9.5
.500 or above 99.7% 99.8% 97.9%
.500 or above in Conference 96.1% 96.8% 85.6%
Conference Champion 28.3% 29.4% 12.5%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.2%
First Four9.4% 9.5% 7.9%
First Round48.0% 49.2% 31.5%
Second Round25.3% 26.1% 14.7%
Sweet Sixteen9.0% 9.3% 4.9%
Elite Eight3.4% 3.6% 1.1%
Final Four1.3% 1.4% 0.2%
Championship Game0.5% 0.5% 0.0%
National Champion0.1% 0.1% 0.0%

Next Game: Wyoming (Home) - 93.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 11 - 1
Quad 1b2 - 23 - 3
Quad 26 - 28 - 6
Quad 37 - 116 - 7
Quad 49 - 025 - 8


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2024 352   Alcorn St. W 101-46 99%     1 - 0 +39.0 +20.1 +19.0
  Nov 09, 2024 198   Charlotte W 103-74 92%     2 - 0 +24.4 +27.9 -3.4
  Nov 18, 2024 206   Montana W 95-83 92%     3 - 0 +7.1 +12.7 -6.4
  Nov 22, 2024 48   Iowa W 77-69 51%     4 - 0 +18.7 +1.2 +16.8
  Nov 28, 2024 94   St. Bonaventure W 72-67 70%     5 - 0 +10.6 +4.2 +6.5
  Nov 29, 2024 70   North Texas W 61-57 61%     6 - 0 +12.0 +2.6 +9.9
  Dec 04, 2024 203   Wyoming W 81-65 93%    
  Dec 07, 2024 290   Utah Tech W 85-64 98%    
  Dec 14, 2024 133   South Florida W 82-70 87%    
  Dec 17, 2024 107   UC San Diego W 77-67 82%    
  Dec 22, 2024 35   @ St. Mary's L 68-72 34%    
  Dec 28, 2024 41   @ San Diego St. L 69-72 38%    
  Dec 31, 2024 49   @ Nevada L 71-73 42%    
  Jan 04, 2025 244   Fresno St. W 87-68 96%    
  Jan 07, 2025 213   @ San Jose St. W 78-68 82%    
  Jan 11, 2025 59   Boise St. W 77-73 66%    
  Jan 15, 2025 105   @ UNLV W 75-71 63%    
  Jan 22, 2025 49   Nevada W 74-70 63%    
  Jan 25, 2025 278   @ Air Force W 76-62 90%    
  Jan 29, 2025 105   UNLV W 78-68 81%    
  Feb 01, 2025 53   New Mexico W 84-80 64%    
  Feb 04, 2025 203   @ Wyoming W 78-68 80%    
  Feb 07, 2025 244   @ Fresno St. W 84-71 87%    
  Feb 11, 2025 108   Colorado St. W 76-66 82%    
  Feb 16, 2025 53   @ New Mexico L 81-83 44%    
  Feb 19, 2025 213   San Jose St. W 81-65 93%    
  Feb 22, 2025 41   San Diego St. W 72-69 59%    
  Feb 26, 2025 59   @ Boise St. L 74-76 45%    
  Mar 01, 2025 108   @ Colorado St. W 73-69 64%    
  Mar 08, 2025 278   Air Force W 79-59 96%    
Projected Record 23 - 7 14 - 6




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mountain West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.4 3.1 6.8 8.4 6.1 2.8 0.7 28.3 1st
2nd 0.0 0.7 4.1 8.3 5.9 1.8 0.2 20.9 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 0.9 4.6 7.0 4.0 0.6 0.0 17.2 3rd
4th 0.0 0.1 1.1 4.0 5.5 2.8 0.4 0.0 14.0 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 1.2 3.2 3.9 1.7 0.1 0.0 10.3 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 0.9 1.8 1.9 0.7 0.0 5.6 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.9 0.8 0.2 0.0 2.7 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.7 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.0 11th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.5 1.1 2.2 3.9 6.5 9.6 12.6 14.4 15.8 13.3 10.3 6.2 2.8 0.7 Total



Mountain West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.7    0.7
19-1 100.0% 2.8    2.7 0.0
18-2 97.5% 6.1    5.5 0.6 0.0
17-3 82.4% 8.4    6.0 2.2 0.2
16-4 51.2% 6.8    3.1 3.0 0.7 0.0
15-5 19.5% 3.1    0.7 1.4 0.8 0.2 0.0
14-6 3.1% 0.4    0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0
13-7 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 28.3% 28.3 18.7 7.4 1.9 0.4 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.7% 99.7% 53.6% 46.1% 2.8 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.4%
19-1 2.8% 99.9% 49.0% 50.8% 3.9 0.2 0.3 0.7 0.7 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.7%
18-2 6.2% 97.3% 40.6% 56.7% 5.7 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.0 1.2 1.1 0.8 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.2 95.5%
17-3 10.3% 93.3% 38.6% 54.6% 7.5 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.9 1.4 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.3 0.4 0.0 0.7 89.0%
16-4 13.3% 82.4% 30.5% 52.0% 9.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.2 1.8 2.2 2.8 2.0 0.0 2.3 74.7%
15-5 15.8% 65.3% 22.7% 42.6% 9.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.8 2.0 3.1 3.6 0.4 5.5 55.1%
14-6 14.4% 43.8% 16.2% 27.7% 10.4 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.9 3.3 0.3 0.0 8.1 33.0%
13-7 12.6% 28.6% 12.0% 16.6% 10.8 0.0 0.2 0.8 2.2 0.4 9.0 18.9%
12-8 9.6% 15.7% 9.5% 6.2% 10.9 0.0 0.2 1.0 0.2 8.1 6.9%
11-9 6.5% 9.5% 6.7% 2.8% 11.3 0.0 0.4 0.2 5.9 3.0%
10-10 3.9% 6.3% 5.5% 0.8% 11.2 0.0 0.1 0.1 3.7 0.9%
9-11 2.2% 4.3% 4.2% 0.1% 11.7 0.0 0.1 2.1 0.1%
8-12 1.1% 4.8% 4.8% 12.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.1
7-13 0.5% 0.4% 0.4% 12.0 0.0 0.5
6-14 0.1% 0.1
5-15 0.1% 0.1
4-16 0.0% 0.0
3-17 0.0% 0.0
2-18 0.0% 0.0
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 52.8% 21.4% 31.4% 8.6 0.4 0.6 1.6 2.3 2.8 3.6 4.0 5.1 7.1 10.4 13.1 1.7 0.0 0.0 47.2 39.9%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.2% 100.0% 1.9 46.1 27.6 19.7 6.6
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.1% 100.0% 2.6 31.0 17.2 27.6 10.3 13.8
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.1% 100.0% 2.8 2.4 35.7 45.2 14.3 2.4