Youngstown St.
Horizon
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-0.8#173
Expected Predictive Rating+2.1#153
Pace71.2#119
Improvement-0.1#181

Offense
Total Offense-1.8#224
First Shot-3.8#281
After Offensive Rebound+2.0#72
Layup/Dunks-1.8#234
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.4#197
3 Pt Jumpshots-4.1#300
Freethrows+2.6#58
Improvement-0.6#265

Defense
Total Defense+1.0#140
First Shot+2.2#109
After Offensive Rebounds-1.2#272
Layups/Dunks-4.0#312
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.0#129
3 Pt Jumpshots+6.9#22
Freethrows-1.8#275
Improvement+0.5#110
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 13.5% 14.8% 11.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.1 14.0 14.5
.500 or above 77.6% 84.4% 64.2%
.500 or above in Conference 78.4% 82.3% 70.7%
Conference Champion 16.4% 19.0% 11.5%
Last Place in Conference 0.8% 0.6% 1.3%
First Four0.6% 0.5% 0.8%
First Round13.3% 14.6% 10.7%
Second Round0.8% 1.0% 0.5%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Presbyterian (Neutral) - 66.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 20 - 20 - 3
Quad 34 - 54 - 8
Quad 414 - 518 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2024 350   @ Chicago St. W 80-60 81%     1 - 0 +10.1 +1.5 +7.8
  Nov 11, 2024 20   @ Ohio St. L 47-81 6%     1 - 1 -17.0 -16.9 -0.2
  Nov 16, 2024 90   @ Syracuse L 95-104 2OT 18%     1 - 2 +0.0 +4.4 -2.4
  Nov 21, 2024 278   Monmouth W 72-62 69%     2 - 2 +4.0 -7.3 +10.8
  Nov 22, 2024 258   Presbyterian W 73-69 66%    
  Nov 23, 2024 202   @ Stephen F. Austin L 65-67 44%    
  Nov 27, 2024 324   Western Michigan W 78-67 86%    
  Dec 04, 2024 253   @ Robert Morris W 70-69 52%    
  Dec 07, 2024 214   Oakland W 71-66 67%    
  Dec 14, 2024 120   Toledo L 77-78 49%    
  Dec 18, 2024 143   @ Wright St. L 75-80 33%    
  Dec 21, 2024 317   @ South Carolina Upstate W 78-73 67%    
  Dec 29, 2024 328   Detroit Mercy W 76-65 85%    
  Jan 01, 2025 360   @ IU Indianapolis W 76-65 83%    
  Jan 04, 2025 137   @ Purdue Fort Wayne L 74-79 31%    
  Jan 08, 2025 201   Northern Kentucky W 71-67 66%    
  Jan 11, 2025 219   Cleveland St. W 73-68 67%    
  Jan 17, 2025 211   @ Wisconsin-Milwaukee L 76-77 45%    
  Jan 19, 2025 252   @ Green Bay W 75-74 53%    
  Jan 22, 2025 253   Robert Morris W 73-66 73%    
  Jan 30, 2025 143   Wright St. W 78-77 55%    
  Feb 01, 2025 360   IU Indianapolis W 79-62 93%    
  Feb 06, 2025 214   @ Oakland L 68-69 46%    
  Feb 08, 2025 328   @ Detroit Mercy W 73-68 68%    
  Feb 12, 2025 137   Purdue Fort Wayne W 77-76 52%    
  Feb 16, 2025 219   @ Cleveland St. L 70-71 46%    
  Feb 21, 2025 211   Wisconsin-Milwaukee W 79-74 65%    
  Feb 23, 2025 252   Green Bay W 78-71 73%    
  Mar 01, 2025 201   @ Northern Kentucky L 68-70 43%    
Projected Record 17 - 12 12 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Horizon Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.4 1.7 3.3 4.6 3.8 1.9 0.6 0.2 16.4 1st
2nd 0.0 0.8 3.4 5.0 4.0 1.6 0.4 0.0 15.3 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.7 3.7 5.5 3.4 0.8 0.1 14.3 3rd
4th 0.0 0.7 3.5 5.6 2.9 0.5 13.2 4th
5th 0.0 0.4 2.8 4.8 2.3 0.2 0.0 10.5 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 2.3 4.3 2.2 0.2 9.3 6th
7th 0.0 0.3 2.1 3.2 2.0 0.2 0.0 7.9 7th
8th 0.1 0.4 1.7 2.4 1.3 0.1 0.0 6.0 8th
9th 0.0 0.4 1.2 1.8 1.0 0.1 4.6 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.4 0.0 0.0 2.1 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.4 11th
Total 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.2 2.3 4.2 5.9 7.3 9.8 11.6 12.7 12.4 10.6 8.1 6.4 4.2 1.9 0.6 0.2 Total



Horizon Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.2    0.2
19-1 100.0% 0.6    0.6
18-2 99.5% 1.9    1.8 0.1
17-3 90.2% 3.8    3.2 0.6
16-4 72.8% 4.6    2.9 1.5 0.2
15-5 40.7% 3.3    1.4 1.4 0.4 0.0
14-6 16.1% 1.7    0.3 0.8 0.5 0.1
13-7 3.0% 0.4    0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 16.4% 16.4 10.3 4.4 1.4 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.2% 71.0% 71.0% 10.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
19-1 0.6% 45.6% 45.6% 12.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.3
18-2 1.9% 40.2% 40.2% 12.8 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 1.1
17-3 4.2% 33.4% 33.4% 13.0 0.0 0.3 0.7 0.3 0.0 2.8
16-4 6.4% 29.7% 29.7% 13.5 0.1 0.8 0.8 0.2 4.5
15-5 8.1% 25.8% 25.8% 13.9 0.1 0.6 0.9 0.5 0.0 6.0
14-6 10.6% 19.5% 19.5% 14.3 0.3 1.0 0.7 0.1 8.6
13-7 12.4% 14.5% 14.5% 14.8 0.1 0.5 0.8 0.4 10.6
12-8 12.7% 10.3% 10.3% 14.9 0.0 0.3 0.7 0.2 11.4
11-9 11.6% 7.9% 7.9% 15.4 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.4 10.7
10-10 9.8% 4.6% 4.6% 15.5 0.0 0.2 0.2 9.4
9-11 7.3% 3.7% 3.7% 15.7 0.1 0.2 7.0
8-12 5.9% 2.1% 2.1% 16.0 0.1 5.7
7-13 4.2% 1.4% 1.4% 16.0 0.1 4.2
6-14 2.3% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 2.3
5-15 1.2% 1.2
4-16 0.6% 0.6
3-17 0.2% 0.2
2-18 0.0% 0.0
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 13.5% 13.5% 0.0% 14.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 1.0 2.9 4.1 3.6 1.8 86.5 0.0%