Youngstown St.
Horizon
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-1.4#187
Expected Predictive Rating-0.6#173
Pace71.2#110
Improvement+4.0#19

Offense
Total Offense-4.5#300
First Shot-4.3#301
After Offensive Rebound-0.2#200
Layup/Dunks-3.9#314
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.6#271
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.1#214
Freethrows+2.3#60
Improvement+2.0#58

Defense
Total Defense+3.1#94
First Shot+3.3#81
After Offensive Rebounds-0.2#205
Layups/Dunks-1.0#205
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.9#106
3 Pt Jumpshots+4.5#27
Freethrows-1.1#260
Improvement+2.0#41
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 12.5% 13.1% 9.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.5 14.5 14.9
.500 or above 88.6% 91.3% 74.8%
.500 or above in Conference 93.8% 95.7% 83.7%
Conference Champion 26.2% 28.9% 12.1%
Last Place in Conference 0.1% 0.0% 0.3%
First Four0.4% 0.4% 0.7%
First Round12.3% 12.9% 9.2%
Second Round0.6% 0.6% 0.3%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Detroit Mercy (Home) - 84.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 1
Quad 20 - 10 - 3
Quad 34 - 54 - 7
Quad 414 - 518 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2024 361   @ Chicago St. W 80-60 83%     1 - 0 +8.4 +1.5 +6.2
  Nov 11, 2024 29   @ Ohio St. L 47-81 6%     1 - 1 -17.7 -18.5 +0.7
  Nov 16, 2024 100   @ Syracuse L 95-104 2OT 19%     1 - 2 -1.2 +4.0 -3.2
  Nov 21, 2024 261   Monmouth W 72-62 65%     2 - 2 +4.6 -7.4 +11.6
  Nov 22, 2024 268   Presbyterian L 42-67 67%     2 - 3 -30.8 -32.9 +1.2
  Nov 23, 2024 213   @ Stephen F. Austin L 57-64 43%     2 - 4 -6.6 -6.9 -0.1
  Nov 27, 2024 293   Western Michigan L 62-73 80%     2 - 5 -21.1 -14.1 -7.5
  Dec 04, 2024 256   @ Robert Morris W 72-58 53%     3 - 5 1 - 0 +11.8 -3.5 +14.6
  Dec 07, 2024 183   Oakland W 66-50 61%     4 - 5 2 - 0 +11.8 -0.3 +14.5
  Dec 14, 2024 208   Toledo W 93-87 65%     5 - 5 +0.7 +11.6 -11.1
  Dec 18, 2024 168   @ Wright St. W 80-70 35%     6 - 5 3 - 0 +12.6 +5.6 +7.0
  Dec 21, 2024 342   @ South Carolina Upstate W 72-64 75%     7 - 5 -0.5 -13.7 +12.1
  Dec 29, 2024 321   Detroit Mercy W 74-63 84%    
  Jan 01, 2025 351   @ IU Indianapolis W 73-65 77%    
  Jan 04, 2025 160   @ Purdue Fort Wayne L 74-78 34%    
  Jan 08, 2025 205   Northern Kentucky W 67-63 63%    
  Jan 11, 2025 218   Cleveland St. W 71-66 67%    
  Jan 17, 2025 132   @ Wisconsin-Milwaukee L 71-77 29%    
  Jan 19, 2025 329   @ Green Bay W 76-71 69%    
  Jan 22, 2025 256   Robert Morris W 72-65 73%    
  Jan 30, 2025 168   Wright St. W 74-72 58%    
  Feb 01, 2025 351   IU Indianapolis W 76-62 90%    
  Feb 06, 2025 183   @ Oakland L 64-67 39%    
  Feb 08, 2025 321   @ Detroit Mercy W 71-66 67%    
  Feb 12, 2025 160   Purdue Fort Wayne W 77-75 56%    
  Feb 16, 2025 218   @ Cleveland St. L 68-69 45%    
  Feb 21, 2025 132   Wisconsin-Milwaukee L 73-74 50%    
  Feb 23, 2025 329   Green Bay W 79-68 85%    
  Mar 01, 2025 205   @ Northern Kentucky L 64-66 42%    
Projected Record 17 - 12 13 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Horizon Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.5 3.0 6.6 7.6 5.3 2.4 0.7 0.1 26.2 1st
2nd 0.0 0.6 4.4 8.4 6.1 1.9 0.3 0.0 21.6 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.5 3.8 7.6 3.9 0.6 0.0 16.6 3rd
4th 0.0 0.3 2.7 5.9 3.0 0.4 12.4 4th
5th 0.2 1.9 4.5 2.8 0.3 9.6 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 1.0 3.0 2.3 0.3 0.0 6.7 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.8 1.4 0.3 0.0 4.3 7th
8th 0.0 0.3 0.8 0.6 0.1 0.0 1.9 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.5 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 11th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.8 3.6 6.8 10.3 13.5 15.8 15.7 13.3 9.5 5.6 2.4 0.7 0.1 Total



Horizon Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
19-1 100.0% 0.7    0.7
18-2 99.3% 2.4    2.3 0.1
17-3 94.3% 5.3    4.6 0.7 0.0
16-4 79.9% 7.6    5.3 2.1 0.2
15-5 49.8% 6.6    3.1 2.8 0.7 0.0 0.0
14-6 19.1% 3.0    0.6 1.3 0.9 0.2 0.0
13-7 3.1% 0.5    0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 26.2% 26.2 16.8 7.1 1.9 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.1% 39.6% 39.6% 11.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
19-1 0.7% 34.8% 34.8% 12.7 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.5
18-2 2.4% 31.1% 31.1% 13.4 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.0 0.0 1.7
17-3 5.6% 25.2% 25.2% 13.7 0.0 0.5 0.7 0.2 0.0 4.2
16-4 9.5% 21.4% 21.4% 14.1 0.0 0.3 1.1 0.5 0.0 7.5
15-5 13.3% 17.2% 17.2% 14.5 0.2 1.0 1.0 0.1 11.0
14-6 15.7% 13.8% 13.8% 14.8 0.0 0.6 1.3 0.3 13.5
13-7 15.8% 10.8% 10.8% 15.1 0.0 0.2 1.0 0.4 14.1
12-8 13.5% 7.6% 7.6% 15.4 0.1 0.5 0.5 12.5
11-9 10.3% 4.8% 4.8% 15.6 0.0 0.2 0.3 9.8
10-10 6.8% 4.0% 4.0% 15.6 0.1 0.2 6.5
9-11 3.6% 2.4% 2.4% 16.0 0.0 0.1 3.5
8-12 1.8% 1.1% 1.1% 16.0 0.0 1.7
7-13 0.7% 0.9% 0.9% 16.0 0.0 0.7
6-14 0.2% 2.1% 2.1% 16.0 0.0 0.2
5-15 0.0% 0.0
4-16 0.0% 0.0
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 12.5% 12.5% 0.0% 14.5 0.0 0.3 1.5 4.0 4.9 1.8 87.5 0.0%