Florida Gulf Coast
Atlantic Sun
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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All team stats adjusted for opponents. See methodology page for details.

Predictive Rating -5.8 264
Results Rating -6.8 269
Consistency 0.14 116
Pace 68.9 167
Improvement -5.3 345

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense C- 250 C- C C D D
Defense D+ 259 D+ C- C D D+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 35% 297 C 59% 162 -2.1 257
2 Pt. Jumpers 48% 69 B- 41% 90 +3.0 46
Three Pointers 38% 239 D+ 32% 257 -2.4 264
Shot Selection/Accuracy D -1.1 316 C -0.1 167
1st FG Attempt C- 1.00 215
Second Chance C 29.4% 202 C 1.04 164 C 0.31 180
Opponents' Steals C 9.4% 174
Other Turnovers C 7.5% 217
Turnovers C 16.8% 190
Freethrows D 0.26 323 C 72% 198 D 0.19 310
Total Offense C- -2.9 250

Assists Opponents' Blocks
Close Shots C 47% 207 D+ 13.0% 308
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots C+ 30% 113 B 3.2% 57
Three Pointers B- 88% 94 C 0.8% 183
Total C- 54% 205 C 5.7% 204


Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 38% 196 C- 60% 219 +0.5 200
2 Pt. Jumpers 17% 293 C- 40% 255 -1.1 101
Three Pointers 45% 76 D+ 35% 253 +2.9 311
Shot Selection/Accuracy D+ +0.4 252 D+ +1.8 257
1st FG Attempt D+ 1.07 258
Second Chance C 30.2% 182 D+ 1.09 269 C- 0.33 235
Turnovers from Steals C+ 10.3% 113
Other Turnovers D- 6.0% 331
Turnovers C 16.4% 199
Freethrows D 0.35 309 D+ 74% 304 D 0.26 319
Total Defense D+ -3.0 259

Assists Blocks
Close Shots B- 44% 96 C+ 13.0% 91
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots D- 38% 335 C 5.0% 161
Three Pointers C- 84% 199 C- 0.8% 187
Total C- 57% 225 C+ 6.2% 135

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 17.3 163 17.1 147
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.19 125 0.19 246
Consistency 0.12 136 0.15 346
Improvement -7.1 363 +1.8 89

NCAA Tournament Selection
At-Large Selection Status Out of Consideration
Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Prediction Ranges
Pessimistic
5th Percentile 		Expected
50th Percentile 		Optimistic
95th Percentile
Predictive Rating Rank 279 267 250
Results Rating Rank 291 286 232
Conference Record 8 - 10 8 - 10 8 - 10
Conference Finish 5 5 5
NCAA Tourney Seed None None 16
NCAA Tourney Finish None None 1st Four

NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 5% 14% 0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 n/a
.500 or above 0% 0% 0%
.500 or above in Conference 0% 0% 0.0%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0.0%
First Four5% 14% 0%
First Round3% 8% 0%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Projected Record by Quadrant
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 3
Quad 20 - 00 - 3
Quad 32 - 72 - 10
Quad 412 - 814 - 18


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Fri, Nov 7 5 @Illinois L 70 - 113 1% -31  0% 0 - 1 F+ -18 C- -1 D+ D- A+ F -14 F F+ D-
 Tue, Nov 11 257 Georgia Southern L 94 - 95 60% -3  22% 0 - 2 D -9 B+ +9 C+ A+ C+ F -18 F B C-
 Sat, Nov 15 286 Chattanooga W 91 - 73 66% +13  97% 1 - 2 B- +8 A- +11 B A+ B- C- -3 B- B+ C-
 Wed, Nov 19 191 @Samford W 77 - 62 26% +9  93% 2 - 2 A- +16 C+ +2 B A F A+ +14 A B- C+
 Mon, Nov 24 315 Oral Roberts W 93 - 88 73% +0  52% 3 - 2 D+ -7 B +7 A- A- D+ F -15 F F+ A+
 Tue, Nov 25 218 Rice W 78 - 63 OT 52% -4  10% 4 - 2 B +9 F -11 D D- F A+ +18 A A- A+
 Wed, Nov 26 159 Kennesaw St. L 100 - 102 OT 39% -0  40% 4 - 3 C- -5 C+ +3 C+ C- B D- -7 F+ B+ A
 Wed, Dec 3 200 @Florida International L 83 - 89 26% -6  6% 4 - 4 D+ -5 C+ +2 D C+ B D- -7 C D- C
 Sun, Dec 7 125 Florida Atlantic L 76 - 81 30% +0  46% 4 - 5 D+ -5 C+ +2 B+ C+ F D- -7 B C+ C
 Sun, Dec 14 53 @New Mexico L 59 - 75 5% -5  33% 4 - 6 C- -2 D- -8 D D+ B- B +5 A+ C- A-
 Sat, Dec 20 51 @Central Florida L 80 - 102 4% -5  30% 4 - 7 D+ -8 B +6 A+ D F+ F -13 F D+ C-
 Thu, Jan 1 169 @Central Arkansas L 83 - 85 22% +3  69% 4 - 8 0 - 1 C +0 A+ +16 A+ C+ A- F -16 F+ F F
 Sat, Jan 3 342 @North Alabama W 72 - 55 64% +8  94% 5 - 8 1 - 1 B- +7 D- -6 C+ F+ F A+ +14 A+ A+ F+
 Thu, Jan 8 176 Austin Peay L 71 - 82 43% -3  22% 5 - 9 1 - 2 F+ -15 D -5 C C F+ F -10 C- F D+
 Sat, Jan 10 197 Lipscomb L 77 - 84 47% -1  30% 5 - 10 1 - 3 D- -12 C- -2 C+ C B F -10 D- D- B+
 Thu, Jan 15 204 Queens L 74 - 85 48% -6  14% 5 - 11 1 - 4 F+ -16 F -10 F C A D -6 B- C- F+
 Sat, Jan 17 303 West Georgia W 90 - 72 71% +3  69% 6 - 11 2 - 4 B- +6 B+ +8 B+ A+ D- C- -2 D+ A F+
 Thu, Jan 22 176 @Austin Peay L 62 - 83 23% -12  2% 6 - 12 2 - 5 F -19 F+ -9 D+ C F F -10 D F+ F
 Fri, Jan 23 197 @Lipscomb L 71 - 86 26% -5  31% 6 - 13 2 - 6 D- -14 B- +4 D- A+ B+ F -20 F F C-
 Thu, Jan 29 342 North Alabama W 72 - 64 82% +8  87% 7 - 13 3 - 6 D+ -8 D- -7 D+ D- F C -0 B F D+
 Sat, Jan 31 293 @Jacksonville W 68 - 49 46% +3  54% 8 - 13 4 - 6 B+ +14 D -5 F+ C+ C+ A+ +21 A A A+
 Thu, Feb 5 294 @Eastern Kentucky L 74 - 76 46% +6  71% 8 - 14 4 - 7 D+ -7 D- -8 C F F C+ +1 C+ F B-
 Sat, Feb 7 285 @Bellarmine L 65 - 81 42% -6  14% 8 - 15 4 - 8 F -20 F -18 F F D+ C- -3 F A+ D
 Wed, Feb 11 340 North Florida W 90 - 81 82% +7  86% 9 - 15 5 - 8 D+ -6 C- -1 B D- B- D -6 C- C D-
 Sat, Feb 14 309 Stetson W 78 - 76 73% +0  43% 10 - 15 6 - 8 D -10 D+ -3 D+ C- D+ D- -7 D F D
 Wed, Feb 18 293 Jacksonville W 86 - 84 69% +4  84% 11 - 15 7 - 8 D -9 A- +11 B+ B- B F -20 F B+ F
 Sat, Feb 21 169 Central Arkansas W 75 - 71 OT 42% -1  39% 12 - 15 8 - 8 C +0 D -5 F B A+ B +5 A F+ C-
 Thu, Feb 26 340 @North Florida L 70 - 76 64% +1  48% 12 - 16 8 - 9 F+ -15 F -13 F C- A+ C- -2 A D D
 Sat, Feb 28 309 @Stetson L 63 - 78 51% -7  4% 12 - 17 8 - 10 F -21 F -15 F+ F B- D- -6 F F A
 Wed, Mar 4 342 North Alabama W 69 - 58 74% +2  76% 13 - 17 C -2 D+ -4 F+ C A- B +4 D A+ B
 Fri, Mar 6 197 Lipscomb L 74 - 78 36%
Totals 13 - 18 8 - 10 -6 C- -3 B C D D+ -3 D+ C D



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings C- C B- D+ C 35% 48% 38% D C- C C C C D C D D+ C- C- D+ D+ 38% 17% 45% D+ D+ C D+ C- C D D+ D
1.05 59% 41% 32% 0 -1 1.00 29% 1.0 .31 17% .26 72% .19 1.13 60% 40% 35% +2 0 1.07 30% 1.1 .33 16% .35 74% .19
Nov
7		 Illinois C- C D- D+ C- 20% 45% 35% F D+ C F D- A+ C A+ B F F C- D+ F 38% 13% 49% C F B- F F+ D- F F F
0.93 54% 30% 30% -6 -5 0.80 25% 0.5 .13 1% .16 92% .15 1.51 86% 43% 37% +13 +1 1.31 39% 1.5 .61 9% .50 88% .44
Nov
11		 Georgia Southern B+ C- A+ B C+ 39% 20% 41% D C+ A+ D+ A+ C+ F F F F F F F F 34% 6% 60% D+ F A- D+ B C- B A- B+
1.29 57% 50% 38% +4 0 1.10 55% 1.0 .53 18% .18 45% .08 1.30 72% 100% 47% +20 +2 1.45 21% 1.2 .24 15% .29 67% .19
Nov
15		 Chattanooga A- A A+ D+ B+ 34% 28% 38% D- B B+ A A+ B- F A+ D C- B B+ B- B+ 42% 6% 52% F B- C A+ B+ C- F B+ F
1.32 70% 50% 32% +6 -1 1.12 39% 1.4 .55 12% .25 87% .21 1.06 52% 33% 31% -5 +2 0.96 21% 0.7 .15 14% .51 70% .35
Nov
19		 Samford C+ D- A+ C+ B+ 38% 40% 23% D- B A+ D+ A F C F D+ A+ A+ F A+ A+ 36% 22% 42% C A F A+ B- C+ D- A+ B-
1.12 50% 63% 36% +8 -3 1.13 42% 1.1 .45 25% .29 67% .19 0.90 39% 55% 24% -10 0 0.82 32% 0.7 .21 15% .41 54% .22
Nov
24		 Oral Roberts B A+ A D A+ 36% 30% 34% F A- A- B- A- D+ A+ C+ A+ F F+ C- F F 46% 10% 44% F+ F D F+ F+ A+ F D+ F
1.26 82% 50% 31% +11 -1 1.21 41% 1.2 .48 16% .55 71% .39 1.19 64% 40% 48% +12 +2 1.29 31% 1.1 .35 24% .45 76% .34
Nov
25		 Rice F F+ F A+ D 34% 30% 36% C D D F D- F A+ C- A+ A+ D C A+ A+ 39% 20% 41% F A A+ F A- A+ D B C-
0.98 53% 20% 44% -2 -2 0.96 28% 0.8 .23 20% .52 73% .38 0.79 62% 36% 14% -11 0 0.80 21% 1.1 .23 24% .33 65% .21
Nov
26		 Kennesaw St. C+ D+ C A B- 42% 20% 38% C C+ C- C+ C- B A+ D A D- F+ F C+ F+ 49% 7% 44% F+ F+ C- A+ B+ A F F F
1.15 52% 38% 42% +2 0 1.06 27% 1.0 .27 14% .52 72% .37 1.17 67% 50% 33% +5 +2 1.16 36% 0.7 .25 22% .53 81% .43
Dec
3		 Florida International C+ C+ F+ F D- 49% 11% 40% B+ D B+ D+ C+ B B- A+ A D- C+ A- C C+ 40% 14% 46% D C B F D- C F F F
1.09 59% 33% 27% -4 +2 0.98 41% 0.9 .38 18% .34 86% .29 1.17 55% 29% 35% -2 +1 1.00 28% 1.4 .41 17% .56 86% .48
Dec
7		 Florida Atlantic C+ B+ A+ D- B+ 47% 14% 39% B- B+ C+ C C+ F C- A+ B D- C+ A+ B- B+ 44% 17% 40% D B F+ A C+ C F F F
1.10 63% 57% 30% +2 +2 1.10 29% 1.0 .29 22% .29 88% .26 1.17 57% 25% 32% -4 +1 0.96 39% 0.9 .33 17% .56 84% .47
Dec
14		 New Mexico D- D- C D D+ 12% 24% 63% F+ D C- D D+ B- D F D- B A F A+ A+ 35% 4% 61% D+ A+ F A+ C- A- F F F
0.86 50% 42% 29% -5 -2 0.88 24% 0.9 .22 18% .25 64% .16 1.10 47% 100% 23% -11 +2 0.84 44% 0.8 .33 19% .49 89% .43
Dec
20		 Central Florida B F+ C+ A+ A+ 30% 21% 48% C- A+ D- D+ D F+ F F F F B+ A F F 36% 12% 52% D- F F A D+ C- A+ A+ A+
1.11 47% 42% 56% +13 -1 1.27 19% 1.0 .19 21% .09 60% .05 1.42 52% 29% 60% +17 +1 1.38 47% 1.0 .47 14% .19 58% .11
Jan
1		 Central Arkansas A+ A+ C A+ A+ 27% 16% 57% D+ A+ F+ A+ C+ A- D- A+ C F D- B F F 37% 20% 43% B- F+ F F F F F F F
1.29 79% 38% 45% +15 0 1.31 19% 1.8 .35 16% .22 92% .20 1.33 67% 30% 43% +7 0 1.16 34% 1.4 .47 11% .35 80% .28
Jan
3		 North Alabama D- C- B- A B- 40% 21% 38% D C+ D- D- F+ F F B- F A+ A A+ A A+ 48% 12% 40% D- A+ A+ A A+ F+ F C+ F
1.05 57% 45% 40% +5 0 1.12 28% 1.0 .28 19% .16 78% .13 0.80 42% 0% 25% -18 +2 0.70 15% 0.8 .13 15% .46 67% .31
Jan
8		 Austin Peay D C- A+ D+ B- 24% 31% 45% F C D+ B C F+ C D- C- F A- A+ F+ C 35% 10% 54% D C- D+ F F D+ F C+ F
1.03 58% 60% 32% +5 -2 1.08 28% 0.9 .25 22% .31 65% .20 1.19 47% 20% 38% -2 +1 1.00 31% 1.7 .53 14% .42 72% .31
Jan
10		 Lipscomb C- C A+ F+ B 35% 38% 27% F C+ D A- C B B F C F A- A+ F D- 39% 12% 49% C D- C F D- B+ F F F
1.08 61% 55% 29% +5 -3 1.08 26% 1.1 .29 15% .31 63% .20 1.17 50% 17% 48% +5 +1 1.14 25% 1.3 .32 20% .37 86% .31
Jan
15		 Queens F D- C+ F F 42% 25% 32% D+ F D A C A C A+ A+ D C- F A- B+ 40% 8% 53% F+ B- C- C C- F+ F D+ F
1.04 52% 40% 16% -11 0 0.80 29% 1.3 .36 10% .34 100% .34 1.20 62% 50% 29% -2 +2 1.02 31% 1.1 .33 11% .45 79% .35
Jan
17		 West Georgia B+ A+ F A+ A 43% 30% 26% F B+ C+ A+ A+ D- A+ B- A+ C- D B- C+ D+ 26% 25% 49% D+ D+ B A+ A F+ D A+ C+
1.28 80% 21% 50% +11 -1 1.22 32% 1.5 .48 17% .61 75% .46 1.02 60% 36% 32% -1 -1 0.96 26% 0.7 .19 13% .31 58% .18
Jan
22		 Austin Peay F+ C C C- C- 37% 27% 37% D- D+ A F+ C F F F F F B- F C- F+ 28% 24% 48% A D D- D F+ F B+ C B+
0.92 61% 38% 33% +1 -1 1.02 40% 0.6 .26 27% .18 44% .08 1.24 53% 54% 35% +3 -1 1.06 33% 1.3 .42 12% .25 73% .19
Jan
23		 Lipscomb B- A+ F B- D 17% 28% 54% F D- C A+ A+ B+ A D- B+ F B- A+ F F 19% 15% 66% A F F F F C- F F F
1.13 75% 15% 36% -2 -2 0.93 31% 1.6 .50 14% .37 65% .24 1.36 56% 0% 55% +14 -1 1.30 37% 1.3 .48 16% .30 88% .26
Jan
29		 North Alabama D- D A- C+ C- 27% 20% 53% F D+ D+ D- D- F F A+ D+ C F A+ A+ B+ 48% 24% 28% C+ B B- F F D+ F D F
1.09 54% 50% 35% +2 -1 1.04 31% 1.0 .31 20% .21 91% .19 0.97 68% 18% 8% -11 0 0.80 27% 1.8 .48 17% .43 71% .31
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Jan
31		 Jacksonville D D+ F B F+ 48% 25% 27% D+ F+ F+ A+ C+ C+ A- F C+ A+ C F A+ A 34% 30% 36% A A B A+ A A+ C- A+ B+
1.03 57% 25% 38% -2 0 0.98 22% 1.4 .31 14% .44 60% .26 0.74 56% 50% 6% -12 -1 0.74 26% 0.7 .18 24% .30 53% .16
Feb
5		 Eastern Kentucky D- A+ B- D C+ 21% 25% 54% F+ C D F F F F B F C+ F A B+ C 16% 22% 61% B- C+ D+ F F B- F F F
1.06 91% 46% 32% +7 -2 1.13 29% 0.7 .21 21% .24 77% .18 1.09 88% 27% 30% -1 -2 0.96 33% 1.3 .44 19% .44 80% .35
Feb
7		 Bellarmine F C- A- F F 19% 32% 49% F F F+ F F D+ D- F+ F+ C- D F F F 35% 12% 53% B- F A+ A+ A+ D C- D D+
0.97 60% 47% 27% -2 -3 0.92 28% 0.9 .25 16% .27 67% .18 1.20 67% 50% 44% +13 +1 1.29 4% 0.0 .00 13% .31 83% .26
Feb
11		 North Florida C- B- A A+ A 42% 32% 26% F B D D D- B- A+ F B+ D B+ F D+ C- 29% 11% 61% C C- F+ A C D- F A F
1.24 64% 53% 43% +11 -1 1.21 33% 1.1 .36 11% .46 53% .25 1.11 50% 50% 35% 0 +1 1.04 31% 0.9 .28 15% .39 71% .27
Feb
14		 Stetson D+ C- D- B+ D+ 43% 21% 36% C D+ C- C+ C- D+ F D F D- A+ F F D+ 52% 15% 33% F D C F F D B+ F B-
1.15 60% 33% 38% +2 0 1.07 31% 1.2 .36 16% .18 70% .12 1.12 41% 63% 47% +1 +2 1.08 26% 1.5 .39 16% .23 77% .18
Feb
18		 Jacksonville A- A A+ F A- 50% 26% 24% D+ B+ A D B- B A+ B+ A+ F F F F F 44% 25% 31% C+ F A+ D- B+ F F A+ D-
1.31 74% 58% 27% +11 0 1.24 40% 0.8 .33 12% .48 75% .36 1.28 81% 50% 40% +16 0 1.33 21% 1.2 .24 12% .45 54% .24
Feb
21		 Central Arkansas D C+ F+ F F 40% 17% 43% C F C- A+ B A+ F+ F F B A- A B+ A 34% 15% 51% C A C+ F F+ C- D+ F D-
1.04 63% 30% 23% -7 +1 0.90 26% 1.5 .38 11% .20 54% .11 0.99 50% 25% 30% -8 0 0.87 26% 1.5 .38 15% .30 78% .23
Feb
26		 North Florida F F B F F 37% 23% 40% D F D- A- C- A+ C+ B- B- C- C- C A+ A+ 37% 10% 54% D A D D D D F D+ F
1.01 38% 46% 17% -16 0 0.70 30% 1.4 .41 7% .30 74% .22 1.10 58% 40% 21% -10 +1 0.85 29% 1.2 .34 16% .45 81% .36
Feb
28		 Stetson F C- F F+ F 48% 19% 33% C+ F+ F F F B- C- C+ C D- B F F F 46% 17% 37% F+ F D+ F F A C+ B+ B-
0.93 60% 30% 29% -3 +1 0.98 17% 0.3 .06 13% .27 75% .20 1.15 52% 63% 53% +12 +1 1.28 28% 1.7 .48 24% .27 64% .17
Mar
4		 North Alabama D+ B+ D- F F+ 44% 26% 30% D- F+ C C+ C A- F D F B D+ F+ A D 48% 14% 38% D D A+ A A+ B A+ D A+
1.11 67% 36% 19% -4 0 0.94 34% 1.2 .40 11% .13 71% .09 0.93 58% 43% 26% -4 +2 0.98 21% 0.8 .17 21% .14 71% .10



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Sun Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 100.0 100.0 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
Total 100.0 Total



Atlantic Sun Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9
8-10 100.0% 5.1% 5.1% 16.0 5.1 94.9
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 5.1% 5.1% 0.0% 16.0 94.9 0.0%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 5.1% 100.0% 16.0 100.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 7.7%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 22.8%
Lose Out 64.4%