Liberty
Conference USA
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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All team stats adjusted for opponents. See methodology page for details.

Predictive Rating +3.3 115
Results Rating +8.5 70
Consistency 0.16 251
Pace 62.5 331
Improvement -4.2 327

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense B 67 A F B+ D- A
Defense C- 229 C- D- C+ B+ C

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 48% 10 B+ 65% 45 +8.6 7
2 Pt. Jumpers 13% 364 C 38% 174 -5.4 364
Three Pointers 46% 80 A- 39% 14 +6.1 22
Shot Selection/Accuracy A +2.4 1 A- +6.3 22
1st FG Attempt A 1.21 6
Second Chance F 17.4% 365 C- 0.98 258 F 0.17 364
Opponents' Steals B 7.9% 42
Other Turnovers B+ 5.7% 24
Turnovers B+ 13.7% 20
Freethrows D 0.26 312 D 68% 309 D- 0.18 331
Total Offense B +5.3 67

Assists Opponents' Blocks
Close Shots B- 53% 101 B- 9.4% 88
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots D+ 19% 261 B- 3.7% 88
Three Pointers D+ 79% 278 D 1.4% 305
Total B- 61% 74 C+ 5.3% 155


Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 39% 183 B 53% 58 -1.9 109
2 Pt. Jumpers 21% 164 D 42% 322 +1.0 270
Three Pointers 40% 193 D- 38% 326 +2.0 281
Shot Selection/Accuracy C +0.0 154 C- +1.0 219
1st FG Attempt C- 1.04 213
Second Chance C- 31.4% 238 F 1.23 363 D- 0.39 335
Turnovers from Steals C+ 9.8% 156
Other Turnovers B- 7.9% 99
Turnovers C+ 17.7% 121
Freethrows A- 0.23 16 D+ 74% 281 B+ 0.17 28
Total Defense C- -2.0 229

Assists Blocks
Close Shots B+ 40% 37 C+ 12.3% 120
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots B- 22% 115 C- 3.7% 248
Three Pointers D 88% 318 C 1.0% 126
Total C+ 53% 131 C 5.9% 151

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 18.4 289 18.2 298
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.12 327 0.13 54
Consistency 0.13 224 0.11 70
Improvement -2.4 297 -1.9 281

NCAA Tournament Selection
At-Large Selection Status Out of Consideration
Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Prediction Ranges
Pessimistic
5th Percentile 		Expected
50th Percentile 		Optimistic
95th Percentile
Predictive Rating Rank 131 115 102
Results Rating Rank 91 77 54
Conference Record 16 - 4 17 - 3 18 - 2
Conference Finish 1 1 1
NCAA Tourney Seed None None 12
NCAA Tourney Finish None None 1st Round

NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 25% 26% 21%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 12.5 12.4 12.7
.500 or above 100% 100% 100%
.500 or above in Conference 100% 100% 100%
Conference Champion 100% 100% 100%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0%
First Four0% 0% 0%
First Round25% 26% 21%
Second Round2% 2% 1%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%
Next Game: Louisiana Tech (Home) - 82.7% chance of victory

Projected Record by Quadrant
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b1 - 01 - 1
Quad 22 - 03 - 1
Quad 39 - 511 - 6
Quad 412 - 024 - 6


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Fri, Nov 7 144 College of Charleston W 90 - 75 69% +8  95% 1 - 0 B+ +13 A+ +25 A+ A- A+ F -10 D- F B
 Sun, Nov 9 125 Florida Atlantic W 88 - 68 64% +15  97% 2 - 0 A +20 A+ +16 A+ D- B+ B +4 A+ F B
 Mon, Nov 24 235 Vermont W 79 - 73 76% +10  95% 3 - 0 C+ +2 B- +5 A+ F C+ C- -3 C- F C+
 Tue, Nov 25 167 Towson L 69 - 72 65% +1  53% 3 - 1 C- -4 C+ +4 B D- A+ D- -8 D+ F C-
 Wed, Nov 26 110 Bradley L 64 - 74 50% -10  1% 3 - 2 D+ -7 D -5 B- F C C- -3 D F A+
 Sat, Dec 6 362 Coppin St. W 92 - 50 98% +34  97% 4 - 2 A +21 A- +11 A+ D C A +11 A A+ C
 Wed, Dec 10 36 @North Carolina St. L 45 - 85 10% -25  0% 4 - 3 F -23 F -23 F+ F F C- -2 D+ A+ C
 Sat, Dec 20 76 @Dayton W 64 - 61 24% -2  33% 5 - 3 B+ +14 B +7 A F A+ A- +7 A+ C- C-
 Sun, Dec 28 200 @Florida International W 97 - 94 OT 59% -0  38% 6 - 3 1 - 0 C+ +4 A +14 A- D+ A+ F -10 C- F C+
 Fri, Jan 2 159 Kennesaw St. W 81 - 73 72% +8  99% 7 - 3 2 - 0 B- +5 C- -0 A- F C B+ +5 A+ C- C+
 Sun, Jan 4 192 Jacksonville St. W 78 - 69 79% +4  70% 8 - 3 3 - 0 C+ +4 B+ +8 C- C A+ D+ -4 B+ F D-
 Thu, Jan 8 221 @Louisiana Tech W 72 - 56 65% +8  96% 9 - 3 4 - 0 A- +15 A- +11 B C- A+ A- +7 C+ A+ F
 Sat, Jan 10 107 @Sam Houston St. W 82 - 74 36% +5  84% 10 - 3 5 - 0 A- +15 B +7 A+ F C- A- +8 C+ B A+
 Thu, Jan 15 177 New Mexico St. W 73 - 71 76% +6  89% 11 - 3 6 - 0 C- -2 B+ +9 A+ F A F -11 D- F D
 Sat, Jan 17 260 UTEP W 80 - 69 87% +7  95% 12 - 3 7 - 0 C+ +2 A +12 A+ F A+ F+ -9 F A A-
 Wed, Jan 21 131 @Western Kentucky W 76 - 69 44% +5  81% 13 - 3 8 - 0 B+ +12 A- +11 A+ D C+ B- +2 C- F A+
 Sat, Jan 24 275 Delaware W 67 - 51 88% +7  80% 14 - 3 9 - 0 B- +7 D+ -3 A F A A+ +12 C+ A- A+
 Thu, Jan 29 163 @Middle Tennessee W 81 - 65 53% +12  90% 15 - 3 10 - 0 A +19 A+ +18 A+ F A+ B- +3 A F B-
 Wed, Feb 4 275 @Delaware W 75 - 69 74% +1  53% 16 - 3 11 - 0 C+ +3 B +6 A+ F C- C- -3 D- A- D+
 Sat, Feb 7 205 Missouri St. W 79 - 76 80% +7  86% 17 - 3 12 - 0 C- -2 B- +4 A- F+ C+ D -6 C- F D
 Wed, Feb 11 177 @New Mexico St. W 77 - 75 55% +1  43% 18 - 3 13 - 0 C+ +4 B- +4 C+ B A C -0 D+ F C+
 Sat, Feb 14 260 @UTEP W 73 - 64 72% +2  68% 19 - 3 14 - 0 B- +6 B+ +8 A F A+ C -1 F D B
 Thu, Feb 19 200 Florida International W 90 - 89 OT 79% +1  48% 20 - 3 15 - 0 C- -4 C+ +2 A F B- D -6 C- F B
 Sat, Feb 21 131 Western Kentucky L 73 - 94 66% -8  18% 20 - 4 15 - 1 F -22 C- -1 A+ F C+ F -21 F F D+
 Thu, Feb 26 159 @Kennesaw St. L 65 - 74 51% -3  29% 20 - 5 15 - 2 D+ -6 D+ -3 B F D- D+ -4 F B- B
 Sat, Feb 28 192 @Jacksonville St. W 81 - 78 59% -3  13% 21 - 5 16 - 2 C+ +4 A+ +15 A+ F A- F -11 D- F F
 Thu, Mar 5 221 Louisiana Tech W 73 - 63 83%
 Sat, Mar 7 107 Sam Houston St. W 79 - 77 59%
Totals 22 - 6 17 - 3 +3 B +5 B- A- A C- -2 A- D D-



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings B B+ C A- A- 48% 13% 46% A A F C- F B+ D D D- C- B D D- C- 39% 21% 40% C C- C- F D- C+ A- D+ B+
1.16 65% 38% 39% +6 +2 1.21 17% 1.0 .17 14% .26 68% .18 1.11 53% 42% 38% +1 0 1.04 31% 1.2 .39 18% .23 74% .20
Nov
7		 College of Charleston A+ B- A+ A+ A+ 44% 8% 48% A+ A+ C+ A+ A- A+ A- C B+ F A F F F+ 35% 22% 43% C D- F F F B C+ A+ B+
1.44 64% 50% 46% +12 +2 1.30 32% 1.3 .42 8% .30 71% .21 1.20 50% 50% 40% +4 0 1.09 36% 1.5 .55 19% .34 65% .22
Nov
9		 Florida Atlantic A+ A+ F A+ A+ 45% 7% 47% B+ A+ F+ C D- B+ F A+ D B A C+ A+ A+ 48% 22% 30% C- A+ D+ F F B F F F
1.30 72% 0% 46% +12 +2 1.31 19% 1.0 .19 13% .22 85% .19 1.00 45% 40% 14% -15 +1 0.74 34% 1.6 .54 19% .44 88% .38
Nov
24		 Vermont B- A- D+ A+ A+ 50% 6% 44% A+ A+ F A+ F C+ C- F F C- C F C- D+ 34% 20% 46% B- C- C F F C+ C+ C C+
1.17 69% 33% 43% +12 +3 1.31 10% 1.3 .14 12% .30 50% .15 1.08 59% 50% 35% +3 0 1.08 23% 1.4 .33 16% .27 73% .20
Nov
25		 Towson C+ A+ D- F C+ 44% 6% 50% A B F C+ D- A+ F A+ D- D- D F A+ D 35% 35% 30% B- D+ D F F C- C+ D+ C
1.09 71% 33% 26% -1 +2 1.06 18% 1.0 .18 9% .17 80% .14 1.14 63% 63% 14% +1 -2 1.00 39% 1.4 .55 16% .26 71% .19
Nov
26		 Bradley D D+ A+ B- C 43% 9% 48% A+ B- F F+ F C A- F D C- D+ C- F D- 35% 28% 37% B D F F F A+ B F C
1.00 55% 50% 36% +1 +2 1.09 17% 0.8 .13 19% .40 52% .21 1.15 63% 38% 41% +6 -1 1.11 42% 1.4 .58 23% .28 86% .24
Dec
6		 Coppin St. A- A+ D A+ A+ 40% 6% 55% B+ A+ D C- D C F F F A B+ A+ A A 31% 31% 39% B A C+ A+ A+ C C- C+ C-
1.35 76% 33% 52% +21 +2 1.49 31% 1.1 .34 16% .12 57% .07 0.74 47% 20% 26% -14 -2 0.71 28% 0.5 .13 22% .34 67% .23
Dec
10		 North Carolina St. F D+ F F 43% 0% 57% A+ F+ F F F F F F F C- D- A F+ D+ 46% 13% 41% D+ D+ B+ A+ A+ C C A B-
0.67 52% 21% -13 +3 0.82 15% 0.3 .05 25% .20 30% .06 1.26 68% 29% 41% +8 +2 1.20 26% 0.9 .24 12% .32 68% .22
Dec
20		 Dayton B B+ F A+ A- 55% 12% 33% A+ A F F F A+ F F F A- A+ F B- A+ 27% 16% 57% A- A+ D B+ C- C- A+ D A
1.07 63% 17% 44% +5 +2 1.16 13% 0.8 .10 10% .17 44% .07 1.02 33% 43% 32% -8 0 0.86 31% 1.1 .34 17% .30 80% .24
Dec
28		 Florida International A A+ F+ B+ A- 34% 5% 61% B A- D C D+ A+ F B- D- F A+ F D- C 60% 16% 24% F C- F F F C+ D- C- D
1.26 71% 33% 38% +8 +2 1.21 31% 1.0 .31 13% .24 75% .18 1.22 42% 78% 38% -1 +2 1.04 50% 1.3 .63 18% .37 70% .25
Jan
2		 Kennesaw St. C- C+ A+ A- B 56% 4% 40% A+ A- F C+ F C C- B C B+ A+ A- A A+ 40% 12% 48% C A+ F A C- C+ A+ C- A+
1.11 57% 50% 40% +4 +3 1.16 14% 1.0 .14 16% .39 79% .31 1.00 38% 29% 28% -14 +1 0.77 46% 0.8 .35 18% .22 69% .15
Jan
4		 Jacksonville St. B+ D- F B- D 50% 4% 46% A C- B- D- C A+ A+ C+ A+ D+ B+ A+ B A- 51% 10% 39% D B+ F+ F+ F D- C F F
1.23 50% 0% 36% -4 +3 1.00 31% 0.9 .28 11% .49 79% .39 1.08 48% 20% 32% -8 +2 0.90 34% 1.2 .40 14% .35 89% .31
Jan
8		 Louisiana Tech A- C F B- B- 46% 8% 46% A- B D+ B- C- A+ D+ A C+ A- A+ C+ F C+ 34% 22% 44% C+ C+ A+ A+ A+ F A- A+ A+
1.18 55% 25% 36% -1 +2 1.04 29% 1.1 .32 11% .30 81% .24 0.92 29% 36% 41% -6 0 0.90 26% 0.5 .14 13% .21 45% .09
Jan
10		 Sam Houston St. B A- A+ C+ A 58% 6% 36% A+ A+ F A+ F C- A- A A A- A+ F F B- 46% 16% 38% D C+ D- A+ B A+ B- F+ C
1.15 69% 67% 33% +8 +3 1.24 8% 2.0 .16 17% .39 78% .30 1.04 35% 75% 42% 0 +1 1.04 40% 0.8 .31 22% .25 79% .20
Jan
15		 New Mexico St. B+ B+ D+ A+ A+ 52% 14% 34% A A+ F F F A D+ C+ C- F C- C+ F F 19% 37% 44% A+ D- C- F F D A+ A+ A+
1.25 65% 33% 47% +10 +2 1.25 19% 0.8 .15 10% .34 78% .27 1.22 60% 37% 43% +6 -3 1.08 33% 1.3 .42 12% .08 50% .04
Jan
17		 UTEP A A+ A C+ A+ 52% 8% 40% A+ A+ F C- F A+ F A F F+ D+ F F F 33% 23% 44% D- F A+ C A A- A+ A+ A+
1.29 81% 50% 35% +13 +3 1.34 18% 1.0 .18 10% .20 82% .16 1.11 63% 64% 48% +16 -1 1.33 14% 1.0 .14 21% .08 50% .04
Jan
21		 Western Kentucky A- F F A+ A+ 33% 2% 65% A+ A+ F A+ D C+ B C+ B B- A+ B+ F D+ 32% 21% 47% B C- D+ F F A+ C- A+ B-
1.17 21% 0% 57% +10 +2 1.26 15% 1.3 .19 17% .45 71% .32 1.07 40% 30% 41% -3 -1 0.96 33% 1.3 .42 20% .33 65% .21
Jan
24		 Delaware D+ B D A A- 36% 6% 57% A A F F F A D F F A+ F A+ D+ C 33% 28% 40% B+ C+ A+ F A- A+ D A+ B
1.11 65% 33% 41% +8 +2 1.21 16% 0.4 .06 10% .24 62% .15 0.85 69% 27% 38% +3 -1 1.05 4% 2.0 .08 27% .29 54% .16
Jan
29		 Middle Tennessee A+ A A+ A+ A+ 52% 8% 40% A A+ F F F A+ F F+ F B- A+ A C+ A 26% 24% 50% B- A D F F B- D- B+ D+
1.32 70% 75% 48% +17 +3 1.42 0% 0.0 .00 8% .18 70% .12 1.06 45% 30% 33% -6 -1 0.88 34% 1.5 .51 18% .32 63% .20
Feb
4		 Delaware B A+ F A A+ 30% 9% 61% A- A+ F F F C- A A+ A+ C- F F D+ F 28% 24% 48% B+ D- A+ D- A- D+ A F B+
1.20 85% 25% 41% +13 +1 1.30 9% 0.0 .00 14% .37 90% .34 1.11 71% 50% 38% +9 -1 1.18 8% 1.0 .08 16% .17 89% .15
Feb
7		 Missouri St. B- A- A+ D B 48% 11% 41% A+ A- F B F+ C+ A+ F A- D B B+ F D+ 38% 29% 33% C+ C- D+ F F D F A+ C-
1.17 73% 60% 32% +8 +2 1.22 19% 1.2 .22 16% .50 64% .32 1.13 56% 29% 44% +1 -1 1.02 34% 1.4 .49 15% .45 54% .24
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Feb
11		 New Mexico St. B- D A+ D C- 42% 7% 51% A+ C+ D- A+ B A F A+ F C F D+ A- C- 34% 21% 45% D D+ B- F F C+ A+ F A
1.14 52% 75% 30% -3 +2 1.00 25% 1.7 .42 10% .15 89% .13 1.11 68% 42% 28% 0 0 1.02 30% 1.5 .45 15% .12 100% .12
Feb
14		 UTEP B+ A+ C C+ A- 37% 10% 53% A- A F F F A+ D+ F F C F B- F F 28% 34% 38% B F B- F D B B D B-
1.19 78% 40% 35% +8 +1 1.20 24% 0.8 .18 11% .33 56% .18 1.04 69% 31% 44% +7 -3 1.11 23% 1.3 .31 20% .22 73% .16
Feb
19		 Florida International C+ D+ A A+ A 47% 4% 49% A A F C F B- B- C B- D A- B- F C 54% 21% 25% D C- F C F B C+ F D-
1.14 54% 50% 48% +9 +3 1.25 17% 1.0 .17 19% .34 73% .25 1.12 48% 33% 50% 0 +1 1.04 41% 1.1 .44 20% .30 89% .27
Feb
21		 Western Kentucky C- A+ A+ F+ A 51% 2% 47% A+ A+ F B- F C+ A+ F C+ F C A+ F F 47% 14% 39% D- F D F F D+ F+ F F
1.05 78% 100% 29% +8 +3 1.24 4% 1.0 .04 17% .51 59% .30 1.36 54% 14% 50% +4 +2 1.14 34% 1.9 .66 13% .38 96% .36
Feb
26		 Kennesaw St. D+ B- F C+ C+ 45% 2% 52% A B F A+ F D- B A- A D+ A C- F F 48% 17% 35% C F C+ B- B- B A+ A+ A+
1.03 58% 0% 36% +1 +3 1.10 4% 2.0 .09 19% .45 83% .37 1.17 43% 38% 65% +9 +1 1.23 33% 0.9 .30 19% .23 58% .14
Feb
28		 Jacksonville St. A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ 44% 4% 52% A A+ F F F A- C- C C F B- F F D 59% 6% 35% F D- B- F F F C- C- C-
1.28 76% 50% 44% +16 +3 1.40 12% 0.0 .00 13% .32 78% .25 1.23 52% 67% 41% +2 +3 1.12 27% 1.5 .40 11% .35 70% .25



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference USA Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 7.5 43.5 49.0 100.0 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
Total 7.5 43.5 49.0 Total



Conference USA Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2 100.0% 49.0    49.0
17-3 100.0% 43.5    43.5
16-4 100.0% 7.5    7.5
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9
10-10
Total 100.0% 100.0 100.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2 49.0% 27.0% 27.0% 12.3 0.6 8.0 4.5 0.2 35.8
17-3 43.5% 24.4% 24.4% 12.6 0.1 4.4 5.7 0.4 32.9
16-4 7.5% 19.3% 19.3% 12.8 0.0 0.4 0.9 0.1 6.0
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9
10-10
9-11
8-12
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 25.3% 25.3% 0.0% 12.5 74.7 0.0%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 13.3% 100.0% 12.3 4.8 60.3 33.7 1.1
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 10.3%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 12.0%
Lose Out 2.5%