California Baptist
Western Athletic
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +1.7 #134
Expected Predictive Rating +5.5 #90
Pace 65.1 #277
Improvement +0.5 #163

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #182 D+ C+ C- C B-
Defense #103 B- B D+ C- C

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 46% #22 1.04 #309 +1.6 #122
2 Pt. Jumpers 18% #216 0.75 #177 -0.8 #226
Three Pointers 36% #297 0.98 #232 -3.3 #298
1st FG Attempt 0.97 #257 -2.6 #256
Freethrows 0.31 #166 72% #203 0.22 #169
Second Chance 37.6% #22 0.93 #302 0.35 #96
Turnovers 17.3% #224
Total Offense -0.6 #182

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 41% #121 1.05 #57 +0.9 #141
2 Pt. Jumpers 22% #113 0.78 #225 -0.9 #256
Three Pointers 37% #288 0.95 #88 +3.1 #61
1st FG Attempt 0.96 #77 +3.2 #77
Freethrows 0.32 #231 74% #284 0.24 #259
Second Chance 25.9% #35 0.98 #107 0.25 #44
Turnovers 15.1% #275
Total Defense +2.3 #103

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 1.6% #71 -0.1% #159
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -6.7% #295 -6.1% #66
Possession Length 18.3 #282 17.2 #183
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.13 #296 0.17 #180
Improvement -0.1 #184 +0.5 #154

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 26.1% 27.5% 20.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.0 13.0 13.2
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 99.3% 99.8% 97.2%
Conference Champion 40.5% 45.0% 23.8%
Last Place in Conference 0.1% 0.0% 0.3%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round26.1% 27.5% 20.6%
Second Round1.4% 1.5% 1.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Tarleton St. (Home) - 78.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 22 - 32 - 5
Quad 35 - 37 - 8
Quad 416 - 223 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 302 South Carolina Upstate W 87 - 75 88% +8  1 - 0 +1 +10 A+ D A+ -10 D+ C B-
 Fri, Nov 7 118 @UC Irvine W 69 - 61 34% +3  2 - 0 +14 +3 C B- F +11 A- A+ D-
 Fri, Nov 14 362 Western Illinois W 69 - 59 96% +6  3 - 0 -9 -3 F D A+ -5 D A F+
 Tue, Nov 18 291 UC Riverside W 80 - 57 87% +15  4 - 0 +12 -4 F+ C C- +14 A+ B- A+
 Fri, Nov 21 287 Grambling St. W 72 - 59 87% +13  5 - 0 +3 +2 A+ D+ F +1 C A+ C
 Tue, Nov 25 202 San Diego W 76 - 61 66% +2  6 - 0 +12 +1 D A+ F+ +12 B A+ C
 Sat, Nov 29 184 @Oregon St. W 75 - 69 51% +2  7 - 0 +7 +6 B F+ A +2 D+ A+ C
 Mon, Dec 1 72 @Colorado L 70 - 78 19% +2  7 - 1 +3 +2 D- C C +1 B C C+
 Wed, Dec 3 15 BYU L 60 - 91 7% -18  7 - 2 -13 -5 D- D D -8 C F D+
 Sat, Dec 6 104 @Utah L 85 - 91 29% -4  7 - 3 +1 +12 D- A+ D+ -11 B- F+ D+
 Fri, Dec 12 245 @Eastern Washington W 88 - 83 63% +5  8 - 3 +3 +12 B A F -8 D+ D D-
 Tue, Dec 16 266 Southern W 75 - 67 84% +4  9 - 3 -1 -0 D- D B+ -1 B- C B
 Sat, Dec 20 274 Sacramento St. W 74 - 67 85% +2  10 - 3 -2 -2 F A+ D -0 A- F C
 Mon, Dec 29 100 @Utah Valley L 66 - 73 28% -0  10 - 4 0 - 1 +1 -2 A+ F F +3 D+ A+ F
 Thu, Jan 1 163 @Texas Arlington L 51 - 63 46% -4  10 - 5 0 - 2 -9 -12 D+ D F +1 A C+ F+
 Sat, Jan 3 226 @Tarleton St. L 76 - 81 OT 59% -1  10 - 6 0 - 3 -6 -1 C+ B- F -5 D- A+ C
 Thu, Jan 8 210 Utah Tech W 84 - 72 77% +7  11 - 6 1 - 3 +6 +19 D+ A+ A+ -11 D A D
 Sat, Jan 10 284 Southern Utah W 58 - 55 86% +6  12 - 6 2 - 3 -7 -11 F B+ A- +4 A+ F C+
 Thu, Jan 15 267 @Abilene Christian W 74 - 58 68% +13  13 - 6 3 - 3 +13 +8 D C- A+ +6 B- A+ F
 Wed, Jan 21 210 Utah Tech W 73 - 64 77% +5  14 - 6 4 - 3 +3 +7 D- A+ A -3 A+ F F
 Sat, Jan 24 100 Utah Valley W 78 - 71 OT 50% +0  15 - 6 5 - 3 +9 +1 B D+ D +7 A+ A+ D
 Sat, Jan 31 163 @Texas Arlington W 87 - 77 OT 46% +5  16 - 6 6 - 3 +13 +10 C+ B A +2 B- A F+
 Thu, Feb 5 226 Tarleton St. W 76 - 68 79%
 Sat, Feb 7 267 Abilene Christian W 74 - 63 85%
 Thu, Feb 12 284 @Southern Utah W 76 - 70 70%
 Sat, Feb 14 210 @Utah Tech W 71 - 69 56%
 Thu, Feb 19 100 @Utah Valley L 68 - 74 28%
 Thu, Feb 26 163 Texas Arlington W 69 - 64 68%
 Sat, Feb 28 226 Tarleton St. W 76 - 68 79%
 Thu, Mar 5 267 Abilene Christian W 74 - 63 84%
 Sat, Mar 7 284 @Southern Utah W 76 - 70 70%
Totals 22 - 9 12 - 6 +2 -1 D+ C+ C- +2 B- B D+




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Western Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.7 6.7 16.0 13.2 3.8 40.5 1st
2nd 0.1 1.9 10.7 18.1 9.2 1.2 41.2 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.0 5.3 6.2 1.7 0.1 14.5 3rd
4th 0.4 1.4 1.4 0.2 3.4 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.3 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 6th
7th 0.0 0.0 0.0 7th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.6 2.6 8.7 17.9 26.5 25.3 14.5 3.8 Total



Western Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 100.0% 3.8    3.8
14-4 91.5% 13.2    9.7 3.5
13-5 63.3% 16.0    7.1 8.2 0.7
12-6 25.2% 6.7    1.7 3.4 1.5 0.1
11-7 4.2% 0.7    0.1 0.3 0.3 0.1
10-8 0.1% 0.0    0.0
9-9 0.0%
Total 40.5% 40.5 22.4 15.4 2.5 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 3.8% 39.9% 39.9% 12.1 0.1 1.1 0.3 2.3
14-4 14.5% 34.7% 34.7% 12.7 0.0 1.9 2.7 0.4 0.0 9.5
13-5 25.3% 32.0% 32.0% 13.0 0.0 1.7 4.9 1.5 0.0 17.2
12-6 26.5% 25.2% 25.2% 13.2 0.9 3.9 1.8 0.1 0.0 19.8
11-7 17.9% 18.0% 18.0% 13.4 0.2 1.8 1.2 0.1 14.7
10-8 8.7% 13.6% 13.6% 13.7 0.0 0.4 0.6 0.1 0.0 7.5
9-9 2.6% 13.0% 13.0% 14.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 2.3
8-10 0.6% 6.5% 6.5% 14.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.6
7-11 0.1% 0.1
6-12 0.0% 0.0
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 26.1% 26.1% 0.0% 13.0 73.9 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 1.5% 100.0% 12.1 6.9 74.4 18.7
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 1.3%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 1.0%