California Baptist
Western Athletic
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-0.1#163
Expected Predictive Rating-0.7#173
Pace65.4#254
Improvement-1.1#239

Offense
Total Offense-1.1#205
First Shot-0.8#199
After Offensive Rebound-0.2#205
Layup/Dunks+4.7#36
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.5#263
3 Pt Jumpshots-4.3#312
Freethrows+0.2#160
Improvement-5.7#355

Defense
Total Defense+1.0#145
First Shot+1.8#116
After Offensive Rebounds-0.9#258
Layups/Dunks-1.5#240
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.3#231
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.1#140
Freethrows+2.5#38
Improvement+4.7#17
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 8.6% 11.8% 0.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.7 14.7 n/a
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round8.6% 11.8% 0.0%
Second Round0.2% 0.3% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 3
Quad 20 - 50 - 8
Quad 34 - 54 - 13
Quad 413 - 217 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 263   Incarnate Word W 83-78 78%     1 - 0 -3.4 +8.1 -11.2
  Nov 09, 2024 137   Kennesaw St. W 88-84 55%     2 - 0 +2.6 +11.1 -8.7
  Nov 12, 2024 143   UC Riverside L 69-70 56%     2 - 1 -2.7 -2.6 -0.2
  Nov 15, 2024 300   LIU Brooklyn W 90-77 84%     3 - 1 +2.2 +20.4 -17.7
  Nov 20, 2024 125   Northern Colorado L 68-79 51%     3 - 2 -11.5 -9.9 -1.1
  Nov 23, 2024 294   Eastern Washington W 79-68 83%     4 - 2 +0.6 +5.2 -4.0
  Nov 26, 2024 45   SMU L 77-79 14%     4 - 3 +9.4 +14.7 -5.5
  Nov 27, 2024 258   Fresno St. W 86-81 2OT 69%     5 - 3 -0.3 -4.0 +2.8
  Dec 01, 2024 70   @ Central Florida L 59-74 15%     5 - 4 -4.1 -10.2 +6.0
  Dec 11, 2024 54   @ San Diego St. L 75-81 11%     5 - 5 +7.6 +22.5 -15.8
  Dec 16, 2024 118   @ Middle Tennessee L 64-75 29%     5 - 6 -5.3 -6.8 +1.6
  Dec 21, 2024 258   @ Fresno St. W 86-69 59%     6 - 6 +14.5 +17.1 -1.9
  Dec 28, 2024 262   Jackson St. W 79-73 78%     7 - 6 -2.4 -4.6 +1.6
  Dec 30, 2024 73   UC Irvine L 63-71 31%     7 - 7 -2.9 -1.5 -1.7
  Jan 04, 2025 146   Seattle W 61-59 57%     8 - 7 1 - 0 +0.2 -5.2 +5.5
  Jan 11, 2025 114   @ Utah Valley L 69-75 27%     8 - 8 1 - 1 +0.2 -0.4 +0.7
  Jan 16, 2025 275   @ Tarleton St. L 57-67 63%     8 - 9 1 - 2 -13.6 -1.6 -13.9
  Jan 18, 2025 211   @ Abilene Christian W 60-54 50%     9 - 9 2 - 2 +5.9 -5.3 +11.6
  Jan 23, 2025 114   Utah Valley L 69-74 47%     9 - 10 2 - 3 -4.3 +0.9 -5.4
  Jan 25, 2025 304   @ Southern Utah W 76-60 70%     10 - 10 3 - 3 +10.5 +8.7 +3.0
  Jan 30, 2025 211   Abilene Christian W 83-60 70%     11 - 10 4 - 3 +17.4 +17.2 +1.7
  Feb 06, 2025 304   Southern Utah L 57-60 85%     11 - 11 4 - 4 -14.0 -14.3 +0.1
  Feb 08, 2025 90   Grand Canyon W 85-71 38%     12 - 11 5 - 4 +17.0 +7.6 +8.0
  Feb 13, 2025 226   @ Texas Arlington L 79-82 OT 52%     12 - 12 5 - 5 -3.7 -3.2 -0.2
  Feb 15, 2025 293   Utah Tech W 86-83 83%     13 - 12 6 - 5 -7.4 +4.2 -11.7
  Feb 22, 2025 90   @ Grand Canyon L 64-66 21%     13 - 13 6 - 6 +6.5 -3.1 +9.6
  Feb 27, 2025 146   @ Seattle L 48-72 36%     13 - 14 6 - 7 -20.3 -16.8 -5.2
  Mar 01, 2025 293   @ Utah Tech W 61-57 68%     14 - 14 7 - 7 -0.9 -6.7 +6.3
  Mar 06, 2025 275   Tarleton St. W 68-48 80%     15 - 14 8 - 7 +10.9 +4.6 +8.8
  Mar 08, 2025 226   Texas Arlington W 70-68 72%     16 - 14 9 - 7 -4.2 -1.9 -2.2
  Mar 13, 2025 275   Tarleton St. W 66-60 73%    
Projected Record 17 - 14 9 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Western Athletic Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 100.0 100.0 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
Total 100.0 Total



Western Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3
12-4
11-5
10-6
9-7 0.0%
8-8
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3
12-4
11-5
10-6
9-7 100.0% 8.6% 8.6% 14.7 0.0 2.7 5.9 0.0 91.4
8-8
7-9
6-10
5-11
4-12
3-13
2-14
1-15
0-16
Total 100% 8.6% 8.6% 0.0% 14.7 0.0 2.7 5.9 0.0 91.4 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 8.6% 100.0% 14.7 0.3 31.2 68.0 0.5
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 11.8%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 52.4%
Lose Out 27.2%