California Baptist
Western Athletic
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+0.3#161
Expected Predictive Rating-1.0#185
Pace64.3#291
Improvement-0.1#192

Offense
Total Offense+0.9#154
First Shot+0.8#151
After Offensive Rebound+0.1#182
Layup/Dunks+5.5#23
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.4#259
3 Pt Jumpshots-4.0#305
Freethrows+0.6#141
Improvement-2.6#315

Defense
Total Defense-0.6#189
First Shot+0.5#163
After Offensive Rebounds-1.1#279
Layups/Dunks-1.9#257
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.5#238
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.7#162
Freethrows+2.2#46
Improvement+2.6#50
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 8.1% 8.6% 5.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.3 14.2 14.7
.500 or above 81.3% 85.9% 61.4%
.500 or above in Conference 87.0% 91.2% 69.4%
Conference Champion 1.7% 2.0% 0.4%
Last Place in Conference 0.1% 0.0% 0.6%
First Four0.1% 0.0% 0.4%
First Round8.1% 8.6% 5.7%
Second Round0.4% 0.4% 0.2%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Southern Utah (Home) - 81.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 2
Quad 20 - 40 - 7
Quad 33 - 53 - 12
Quad 414 - 317 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 291   Incarnate Word W 83-78 82%     1 - 0 -4.6 +6.3 -10.7
  Nov 09, 2024 170   Kennesaw St. W 88-84 61%     2 - 0 +1.4 +9.7 -8.6
  Nov 12, 2024 163   UC Riverside L 69-70 60%     2 - 1 -3.3 -1.8 -1.6
  Nov 15, 2024 327   LIU Brooklyn W 90-77 88%     3 - 1 +0.3 +18.7 -17.8
  Nov 20, 2024 154   Northern Colorado L 68-79 58%     3 - 2 -12.8 -10.8 -1.6
  Nov 23, 2024 252   Eastern Washington W 79-68 78%     4 - 2 +3.2 +7.2 -3.4
  Nov 26, 2024 42   SMU L 77-79 15%     4 - 3 +9.7 +15.7 -6.3
  Nov 27, 2024 259   Fresno St. W 86-81 2OT 72%     5 - 3 -0.6 -4.2 +2.6
  Dec 01, 2024 62   @ Central Florida L 59-74 15%     5 - 4 -3.6 -9.0 +5.3
  Dec 11, 2024 52   @ San Diego St. L 75-81 13%     5 - 5 +6.7 +22.7 -16.8
  Dec 16, 2024 120   @ Middle Tennessee L 64-75 33%     5 - 6 -6.2 -6.5 +0.5
  Dec 21, 2024 259   @ Fresno St. W 86-69 63%     6 - 6 +13.9 +16.9 -2.2
  Dec 28, 2024 284   Jackson St. W 79-73 82%     7 - 6 -3.2 -4.1 +0.3
  Dec 30, 2024 67   UC Irvine L 63-71 31%     7 - 7 -2.5 -0.7 -2.1
  Jan 04, 2025 162   Seattle W 61-59 60%     8 - 7 1 - 0 -0.3 -7.1 +7.0
  Jan 11, 2025 132   @ Utah Valley L 69-75 36%     8 - 8 1 - 1 -1.9 -0.8 -0.9
  Jan 16, 2025 247   @ Tarleton St. L 57-67 61%     8 - 9 1 - 2 -12.6 -2.0 -12.6
  Jan 18, 2025 242   @ Abilene Christian W 60-54 60%     9 - 9 2 - 2 +3.7 -7.0 +11.0
  Jan 23, 2025 132   Utah Valley L 69-74 54%     9 - 10 2 - 3 -5.9 +0.8 -6.8
  Jan 25, 2025 268   @ Southern Utah W 76-60 65%     10 - 10 3 - 3 +12.5 +8.6 +5.2
  Jan 30, 2025 242   Abilene Christian W 83-60 77%     11 - 10 4 - 3 +15.7 +15.7 +1.5
  Feb 06, 2025 268   Southern Utah W 76-67 81%    
  Feb 08, 2025 74   Grand Canyon L 70-75 35%    
  Feb 13, 2025 200   @ Texas Arlington L 73-74 47%    
  Feb 15, 2025 292   Utah Tech W 75-65 83%    
  Feb 22, 2025 74   @ Grand Canyon L 68-78 17%    
  Feb 27, 2025 162   @ Seattle L 68-70 39%    
  Mar 01, 2025 292   @ Utah Tech W 73-68 66%    
  Mar 06, 2025 247   Tarleton St. W 69-61 79%    
  Mar 08, 2025 200   Texas Arlington W 76-71 69%    
Projected Record 16 - 14 9 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Western Athletic Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 1.0 0.4 1.7 1st
2nd 0.2 1.7 3.4 2.1 0.2 7.6 2nd
3rd 0.1 4.6 17.2 20.1 9.3 1.3 52.5 3rd
4th 0.0 1.9 11.1 8.2 1.5 0.1 22.8 4th
5th 0.4 4.5 3.7 0.5 9.1 5th
6th 0.0 1.7 2.3 0.2 4.2 6th
7th 0.3 1.2 0.2 1.7 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.0 9th
Total 0.1 0.5 3.4 9.0 19.6 26.0 23.3 13.1 4.5 0.6 Total



Western Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3 70.2% 0.4    0.1 0.2 0.1
12-4 22.9% 1.0    0.2 0.5 0.4 0.0
11-5 2.1% 0.3    0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
10-6 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
9-7 0.0%
8-8 0.0%
Total 1.7% 1.7 0.4 0.8 0.5 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3 0.6% 17.5% 17.5% 13.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.5
12-4 4.5% 23.1% 23.1% 13.5 0.1 0.5 0.4 0.1 3.5
11-5 13.1% 14.5% 14.5% 13.9 0.0 0.4 1.2 0.2 0.0 11.2
10-6 23.3% 9.3% 9.3% 14.3 0.2 1.1 0.8 0.1 21.2
9-7 26.0% 6.8% 6.8% 14.6 0.1 0.6 1.0 0.1 24.2
8-8 19.6% 3.9% 3.9% 15.0 0.1 0.5 0.1 18.8
7-9 9.0% 2.8% 2.8% 15.2 0.2 0.1 8.7
6-10 3.4% 2.6% 2.6% 15.7 0.0 0.1 3.3
5-11 0.5% 6.0% 6.0% 16.0 0.0 0.5
4-12 0.1% 0.1
3-13
2-14
1-15
0-16
Total 100% 8.1% 8.1% 0.0% 14.3 0.1 1.3 3.5 2.8 0.5 91.9 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.3%