California Baptist
Western Athletic
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +0.7 #147
Expected Predictive Rating +3.4 #120
Pace 64.7 #298
Improvement -3.6 #339

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #176 C- C+ D+ C+ B+
Defense #133 C+ A- D+ D+ C

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 48% #8 1.04 #311 +2.5 #102
2 Pt. Jumpers 16% #262 0.81 #107 -1.0 #225
Three Pointers 36% #291 0.96 #246 -3.6 #298
1st FG Attempt 0.97 #235 -2.1 #232
Freethrows 17.8 #160 74% #133 13.3 #142
Second Chance 38.3% #22 0.92 #317 0.35 #118
Turnovers 17.9% #256
Total Offense -0.2 #176

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 41% #117 1.09 #103 +0.0 #181
2 Pt. Jumpers 22% #117 0.81 #265 -1.3 #276
Three Pointers 37% #285 0.97 #135 +2.8 #82
1st FG Attempt 0.99 #130 +1.5 #130
Freethrows 18.4 #240 76% #306 13.9 #86
Second Chance 25.8% #34 0.97 #87 0.25 #35
Turnovers 15.1% #276
Total Defense +1.0 #133

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 2.5% #41 -0.1% #161
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -6.5% #279 -2.9% #126
Possession Length 18.1 #264 17.4 #207
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.12 #318 0.18 #185
Improvement -1.3 #267 -2.3 #312

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 15.5% 16.0% 10.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.6 13.5 14.1
.500 or above 98.5% 98.9% 93.8%
.500 or above in Conference 74.7% 77.3% 48.6%
Conference Champion 9.1% 9.7% 2.9%
Last Place in Conference 1.6% 1.0% 7.6%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
First Round15.5% 16.0% 10.6%
Second Round0.7% 0.8% 0.2%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Southern Utah (Home) - 91.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 21 - 41 - 5
Quad 35 - 56 - 10
Quad 415 - 221 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 287 South Carolina Upstate W 87 - 75 84%  +8  1 - 0 +2 +9 A F A+ -7 C- C B+
 Fri, Nov 7 121 @UC Irvine W 69 - 61 33%  +3  2 - 0 +13 +1 C C+ F +12 A A+ F
 Fri, Nov 14 358 Western Illinois W 69 - 59 95%  +6  3 - 0 -8 -3 F F A+ -4 D A+ F
 Tue, Nov 18 295 UC Riverside W 80 - 57 85%  +15  4 - 0 +12 -4 F C F +15 A+ A- A+
 Fri, Nov 21 246 Grambling St. W 72 - 59 79%  +13  5 - 0 +5 +3 A+ D- F +4 C+ A+ C+
 Tue, Nov 25 222 San Diego W 76 - 61 65%  +2  6 - 0 +12 +1 D A+ F +11 B A+ C
 Sat, Nov 29 182 @Oregon St. W 75 - 69 47%  +2  7 - 0 +7 +6 B- F A+ +2 D+ A+ C
 Mon, Dec 1 77 @Colorado L 70 - 78 18%  +2  7 - 1 +3 +2 D- C- C +0 B+ C C
 Wed, Dec 3 8 BYU L 44 - 66 4%  -18  7 - 2 -2 +2 D C A+ -14 C- F F
 Sat, Dec 6 117 @Utah L 85 - 91 30%  -4  7 - 3 +0 +12 D A+ D -12 C+ F D-
 Fri, Dec 12 255 @Eastern Washington W 88 - 83 62%  +5  8 - 3 +3 +10 C A+ F -8 C- F D-
 Tue, Dec 16 256 Southern W 75 - 67 81%  +4  9 - 3 -1 -1 F F B+ +0 B C B+
 Sat, Dec 20 296 Sacramento St. W 74 - 67 86%  +2  10 - 3 -4 -1 F A+ F -3 B+ F C-
 Mon, Dec 29 101 @Utah Valley L 66 - 73 24%  -0  10 - 4 0 - 1 +1 -2 A+ F F +3 C- A+ F
 Thu, Jan 1 156 @Texas Arlington L 51 - 63 42%  -4  10 - 5 0 - 2 -9 -12 D D F +2 A+ C+ F
 Sat, Jan 3 172 @Tarleton St. L 76 - 81 OT 45%  -1  10 - 6 0 - 3 -3 -0 C A+ F -2 D A+ B-
 Thu, Jan 8 227 Utah Tech W 84 - 72 76%  +7  11 - 6 1 - 3 +5 +18 D- A+ A+ -11 D A D-
 Sat, Jan 10 329 Southern Utah W 79 - 65 91% 
 Thu, Jan 15 202 @Abilene Christian W 69 - 68 50% 
 Wed, Jan 21 227 Utah Tech W 74 - 67 76% 
 Sat, Jan 24 101 Utah Valley L 70 - 71 46% 
 Sat, Jan 31 156 @Texas Arlington L 65 - 67 42% 
 Thu, Feb 5 172 Tarleton St. W 76 - 71 67% 
 Sat, Feb 7 202 Abilene Christian W 71 - 65 72% 
 Thu, Feb 12 329 @Southern Utah W 76 - 68 78% 
 Sat, Feb 14 227 @Utah Tech W 71 - 70 55% 
 Thu, Feb 19 101 @Utah Valley L 67 - 74 25% 
 Thu, Feb 26 156 Texas Arlington W 68 - 64 63% 
 Sat, Feb 28 172 Tarleton St. W 76 - 71 66% 
 Thu, Mar 5 202 Abilene Christian W 71 - 65 71% 
 Sat, Mar 7 329 @Southern Utah W 76 - 68 78% 
Totals 20 - 11 10 - 8 +1 +0 C- C+ D+ +1 C+ A- D+




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Western Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.6 2.9 3.4 1.8 0.3 9.1 1st
2nd 0.3 3.4 9.6 8.3 2.8 0.3 24.5 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.4 4.5 11.0 6.6 1.2 0.0 23.7 3rd
4th 0.0 0.7 4.4 9.4 4.8 0.5 0.0 19.8 4th
5th 0.1 1.0 3.6 6.2 2.7 0.2 13.8 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 1.2 2.7 2.9 1.2 0.1 8.4 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.6 7th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.5 3.9 7.2 12.2 17.0 19.4 17.4 12.3 6.2 2.1 0.3 Total



Western Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 100.0% 0.3    0.3 0.0
14-4 87.2% 1.8    1.4 0.4
13-5 54.9% 3.4    1.8 1.5 0.1
12-6 23.6% 2.9    0.7 1.5 0.6 0.1
11-7 3.7% 0.6    0.1 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0
10-8 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
9-9 0.0%
Total 9.1% 9.1 4.3 3.7 1.0 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 0.3% 48.5% 48.5% 11.7 0.0 0.1 0.2
14-4 2.1% 41.6% 41.6% 12.6 0.0 0.4 0.4 0.1 1.2
13-5 6.2% 34.2% 34.2% 12.9 0.5 1.2 0.4 4.1
12-6 12.3% 26.7% 26.7% 13.3 0.3 1.9 1.0 0.1 9.0
11-7 17.4% 18.5% 18.5% 13.5 0.2 1.4 1.4 0.2 14.2
10-8 19.4% 13.8% 13.8% 13.8 0.0 0.8 1.5 0.4 0.0 16.7
9-9 17.0% 9.3% 9.3% 14.1 0.0 0.3 0.9 0.4 0.0 15.4
8-10 12.2% 8.0% 8.0% 14.6 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.1 11.2
7-11 7.2% 5.4% 5.4% 14.9 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.1 6.8
6-12 3.9% 4.4% 4.4% 15.2 0.0 0.1 0.1 3.7
5-13 1.5% 4.7% 4.7% 15.6 0.0 0.0 1.4
4-14 0.4% 2.4% 2.4% 16.0 0.0 0.4
3-15 0.1% 4.3% 4.3% 16.0 0.0 0.1
2-16 0.0% 0.0
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 15.5% 15.5% 0.0% 13.6 84.5 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.2% 100.0% 11.7 27.3 72.7