Cleveland St.
Horizon
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+0.5#157
Expected Predictive Rating+3.1#125
Pace65.9#242
Improvement+7.7#4

Offense
Total Offense-1.4#216
First Shot-3.2#269
After Offensive Rebound+1.9#78
Layup/Dunks-1.4#231
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.4#51
3 Pt Jumpshots-4.7#320
Freethrows+0.5#150
Improvement+5.0#7

Defense
Total Defense+1.8#120
First Shot+3.2#83
After Offensive Rebounds-1.3#292
Layups/Dunks+0.7#142
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.4#70
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.3#135
Freethrows-0.2#194
Improvement+2.8#43
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 21.1% 23.7% 17.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.1 13.9 14.3
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 99.9%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 85.2% 92.0% 75.6%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.1% 0.0% 0.1%
First Round21.1% 23.6% 17.4%
Second Round1.1% 1.4% 0.7%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Northern Kentucky (Away) - 58.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 1
Quad 20 - 20 - 4
Quad 36 - 47 - 7
Quad 414 - 320 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 18   @ Michigan L 53-101 6%     0 - 1 -29.4 -14.6 -11.7
  Nov 09, 2024 55   @ Kansas St. L 64-77 13%     0 - 2 -0.6 -1.9 +1.2
  Nov 12, 2024 226   @ Valparaiso W 75-67 56%     1 - 2 +7.0 +2.1 +5.1
  Nov 16, 2024 300   Eastern Michigan W 71-63 84%     2 - 2 -2.2 -3.9 +2.1
  Nov 19, 2024 92   @ Minnesota L 47-58 22%     2 - 3 -2.5 -17.6 +14.3
  Nov 23, 2024 148   Kent St. L 52-68 58%     2 - 4 -17.5 -14.2 -4.5
  Nov 26, 2024 344   NJIT W 56-53 91%     3 - 4 -11.3 -16.3 +5.2
  Nov 29, 2024 282   Morehead St. L 69-71 82%     3 - 5 -11.2 -5.6 -5.6
  Dec 05, 2024 133   @ Wisconsin-Milwaukee L 67-79 36%     3 - 6 0 - 1 -7.9 +1.5 -10.4
  Dec 07, 2024 347   @ Green Bay W 83-61 83%     4 - 6 1 - 1 +12.5 +5.3 +7.5
  Dec 19, 2024 188   Oakland W 92-75 66%     5 - 6 2 - 1 +13.2 +23.9 -9.3
  Dec 29, 2024 196   Wright St. W 78-64 67%     6 - 6 3 - 1 +9.9 +6.6 +4.4
  Jan 04, 2025 330   IU Indianapolis W 67-61 89%     7 - 6 4 - 1 -7.1 -4.5 -1.5
  Jan 08, 2025 194   @ Robert Morris W 80-69 48%     8 - 6 5 - 1 +11.9 +8.7 +3.3
  Jan 11, 2025 219   @ Youngstown St. W 80-72 55%     9 - 6 6 - 1 +7.2 +10.2 -2.8
  Jan 15, 2025 244   Northern Kentucky W 76-58 77%     10 - 6 7 - 1 +10.6 +9.4 +2.9
  Jan 19, 2025 330   @ IU Indianapolis W 73-62 79%     11 - 6 8 - 1 +2.9 -1.2 +5.1
  Jan 22, 2025 323   Detroit Mercy W 65-50 88%     12 - 6 9 - 1 +2.6 -5.5 +9.3
  Jan 25, 2025 347   Green Bay W 81-66 91%     13 - 6 10 - 1 +0.5 +6.9 -5.1
  Jan 30, 2025 149   @ Purdue Fort Wayne W 68-58 39%     14 - 6 11 - 1 +13.4 +0.3 +14.0
  Feb 05, 2025 244   @ Northern Kentucky W 66-63 58%    
  Feb 08, 2025 133   Wisconsin-Milwaukee W 72-71 57%    
  Feb 12, 2025 194   Robert Morris W 72-67 69%    
  Feb 16, 2025 219   Youngstown St. W 72-66 74%    
  Feb 21, 2025 323   @ Detroit Mercy W 70-62 76%    
  Feb 23, 2025 188   @ Oakland L 65-66 47%    
  Feb 27, 2025 196   @ Wright St. L 72-73 47%    
  Mar 01, 2025 149   Purdue Fort Wayne W 76-74 59%    
Projected Record 19 - 9 16 - 4




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Horizon Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.3 5.1 18.2 26.1 22.0 11.0 2.5 85.2 1st
2nd 0.0 1.4 5.5 2.5 9.4 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 2.4 1.2 0.0 3.9 3rd
4th 0.6 0.5 0.0 1.2 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.3 5th
6th 0.1 0.0 0.1 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
Total 0.1 1.1 4.6 11.8 20.8 26.1 22.0 11.0 2.5 Total



Horizon Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1 100.0% 2.5    2.5
18-2 100.0% 11.0    11.0
17-3 100.0% 22.0    22.0
16-4 100.0% 26.1    23.2 2.8 0.1
15-5 87.9% 18.2    10.4 6.9 0.9
14-6 43.1% 5.1    0.8 2.5 1.5 0.3 0.0
13-7 6.3% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10
Total 85.2% 85.2 69.9 12.2 2.7 0.4 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1 2.5% 34.0% 34.0% 12.5 0.0 0.4 0.3 0.0 1.7
18-2 11.0% 27.7% 27.7% 13.5 0.2 1.4 1.4 0.1 8.0
17-3 22.0% 25.2% 25.2% 13.8 0.1 1.5 3.1 0.8 16.4
16-4 26.1% 22.0% 22.0% 14.2 0.7 3.2 1.8 0.1 20.3
15-5 20.8% 17.8% 17.8% 14.5 0.2 1.6 1.8 0.1 17.1
14-6 11.8% 13.6% 13.6% 14.8 0.0 0.4 1.0 0.1 10.2
13-7 4.6% 12.1% 12.1% 15.2 0.0 0.4 0.2 4.1
12-8 1.1% 6.5% 6.5% 15.6 0.0 0.0 1.0
11-9 0.1% 0.1
10-10
9-11
8-12
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 21.1% 21.1% 0.0% 14.1 0.0 0.8 4.1 9.8 5.9 0.5 78.9 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.9% 100.0% 12.5 3.5 51.8 40.0 4.7
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.5%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.8%