Cleveland St.
Horizon
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -8.3 #306
Expected Predictive Rating -7.0 #279
Pace 71.6 #106
Improvement +5.2 #16

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #150 C+ C- D B+ C
Defense #360 D- F+ D C C-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 33% #323 1.07 #278 -4.7 #331
2 Pt. Jumpers 16% #278 0.66 #321 -2.5 #304
Three Pointers 51% #18 1.18 #15 +9.5 #3
1st FG Attempt 1.06 #112 +2.3 #112
Freethrows 0.35 #48 77% #42 0.27 #25
Second Chance 26.8% #287 1.07 #111 0.29 #240
Turnovers 19.3% #327
Total Offense +0.3 #150

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 35% #277 1.32 #344 -1.0 #209
2 Pt. Jumpers 17% #298 0.91 #353 +0.2 #170
Three Pointers 48% #24 1.06 #236 -4.5 #340
1st FG Attempt 1.12 #330 -5.3 #330
Freethrows 0.28 #132 78% #361 0.22 #204
Second Chance 38.3% #362 1.07 #261 0.41 #351
Turnovers 14.4% #313
Total Defense -8.7 #360

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 0.4% #167 0.6% #221
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 4.1% #106 9.7% #332
Possession Length 17.2 #165 16.6 #69
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.20 #96 0.22 #335
Improvement +3.6 #23 +1.6 #91

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.7% 0.9% 0.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 11.3% 24.7% 6.9%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 3.8% 0.9% 4.7%
First Four0.6% 0.8% 0.6%
First Round0.4% 0.6% 0.3%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Oakland (Home) - 24.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 21 - 21 - 4
Quad 32 - 83 - 12
Quad 46 - 89 - 20


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 279 @Loyola Chicago L 88 - 91 33% -2  0 - 1 -7 +10 C+ A- F -17 D C F
 Mon, Nov 10 63 @Northwestern L 63 - 110 4% -24  0 - 2 -35 -8 C C F -24 F F D-
 Sat, Nov 15 145 Kent St. L 95 - 102 19% -2  0 - 3 -6 +15 A A+ F -20 D F F
 Sun, Nov 16 234 Radford W 87 - 82 34% -9  1 - 3 +1 -2 C F D+ +2 A- D- C+
 Wed, Nov 19 160 Valparaiso L 75 - 90 31% -12  1 - 4 -18 +3 C D+ A- -22 F F D
 Sat, Nov 22 145 @Kent St. L 71 - 91 13% -14  1 - 5 -16 -8 D+ D F -6 F C+ A-
 Fri, Nov 28 54 @Missouri L 59 - 86 3% -19  1 - 6 -14 -10 C- F F -4 C- F A-
 Wed, Dec 3 193 @Northern Kentucky L 80 - 95 20% -8  1 - 7 0 - 1 -14 +5 B+ B F -19 F F B
 Sat, Dec 6 278 Detroit Mercy L 59 - 71 55% -4  1 - 8 0 - 2 -22 -14 F C- F -9 C- B- F
 Wed, Dec 17 120 @UAB L 77 - 101 10% -7  1 - 9 -18 +3 A F D -20 F D+ D
 Sun, Dec 21 254 Wisconsin-Milwaukee L 71 - 81 50% +0  1 - 10 0 - 3 -18 -1 F+ D A+ -18 D F+ F
 Mon, Dec 29 340 IU Indianapolis W 99 - 86 73% +10  2 - 10 1 - 3 -2 +9 C+ C B- -12 B- F+ D-
 Sun, Jan 4 216 @Purdue Fort Wayne L 71 - 74 22% +4  2 - 11 1 - 4 -3 +1 D- A+ D -5 C C- D
 Fri, Jan 9 129 @Oakland L 72 - 97 11% -13  2 - 12 1 - 5 -20 -6 F C+ C- -13 B- F B
 Sun, Jan 11 278 @Detroit Mercy L 84 - 94 32% -11  2 - 13 1 - 6 -14 +2 A- F F -15 F F A+
 Thu, Jan 15 258 Green Bay L 73 - 88 51% -2  2 - 14 1 - 7 -23 +2 B F+ D+ -28 F F D
 Sat, Jan 17 225 Youngstown St. W 80 - 78 43% +1  3 - 14 2 - 7 -5 +5 A+ C- D- -10 C A F
 Wed, Jan 21 144 @Wright St. W 85 - 79 13% -0  4 - 14 3 - 7 +10 +14 B+ D A- -4 B F+ F
 Fri, Jan 30 258 @Green Bay W 89 - 82 29% +5  5 - 14 4 - 7 +5 +17 A+ A+ F+ -12 D+ F D-
 Sun, Feb 1 254 @Wisconsin-Milwaukee W 90 - 88 28% +4  6 - 14 5 - 7 -0 +16 A+ B+ C- -16 F F C-
 Wed, Feb 4 129 Oakland L 83 - 90 25%
 Sat, Feb 7 340 @IU Indianapolis W 90 - 89 51%
 Thu, Feb 12 220 Robert Morris L 78 - 80 42%
 Sun, Feb 15 144 Wright St. L 78 - 84 28%
 Wed, Feb 18 225 @Youngstown St. L 76 - 84 23%
 Sun, Feb 22 216 Purdue Fort Wayne L 80 - 82 42%
 Wed, Feb 25 193 Northern Kentucky L 81 - 84 39%
 Sat, Feb 28 220 @Robert Morris L 75 - 83 23%
Totals 9 - 19 8 - 12 -8 +0 C+ C- D -9 D- F+ D




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Horizon Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 0.0 2nd
3rd 0.2 0.6 0.3 0.0 1.1 3rd
4th 0.2 2.3 1.5 0.1 4.1 4th
5th 0.0 2.6 3.8 0.5 0.0 7.0 5th
6th 0.8 6.9 1.8 0.0 9.5 6th
7th 0.2 6.2 5.8 0.1 12.3 7th
8th 0.1 4.1 12.9 1.2 18.4 8th
9th 0.1 3.9 13.3 5.7 0.1 23.2 9th
10th 3.8 11.8 7.6 0.4 23.5 10th
11th 0.6 0.3 0.0 0.8 11th
Total 4.5 16.1 25.3 26.0 16.9 8.2 2.7 0.4 0.0 Total



Horizon Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7 0.0%
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7 0.0% 0.0
12-8 0.4% 3.4% 3.4% 15.7 0.0 0.0 0.4
11-9 2.7% 4.2% 4.2% 16.0 0.1 2.5
10-10 8.2% 1.9% 1.9% 16.0 0.2 8.0
9-11 16.9% 1.2% 1.2% 16.0 0.2 16.7
8-12 26.0% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.1 25.9
7-13 25.3% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.1 25.2
6-14 16.1% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 16.1
5-15 4.5% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 4.5
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 0.7% 0.7% 0.0% 16.0 99.3 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 3.2%