Detroit Mercy
Horizon
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-10.0#323
Expected Predictive Rating-7.0#282
Pace66.9#220
Improvement-1.1#238

Offense
Total Offense-7.8#350
First Shot-8.3#357
After Offensive Rebound+0.4#152
Layup/Dunks-7.5#358
2 Pt Jumpshots+6.8#3
3 Pt Jumpshots-5.8#340
Freethrows-1.7#288
Improvement-3.3#333

Defense
Total Defense-2.1#236
First Shot-1.4#220
After Offensive Rebounds-0.7#252
Layups/Dunks-0.5#191
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.1#26
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.7#288
Freethrows-0.4#210
Improvement+2.3#65
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.2% 0.2% 0.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 0.3% 1.4% 0.1%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 1.0% 0.3% 1.1%
First Four0.2% 0.2% 0.2%
First Round0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Robert Morris (Away) - 14.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 1
Quad 20 - 30 - 4
Quad 32 - 102 - 14
Quad 48 - 89 - 22


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2024 128   @ Loyola Chicago L 65-87 10%     0 - 1 -17.6 -5.4 -11.9
  Nov 10, 2024 316   Niagara W 84-78 OT 56%     1 - 1 -5.6 -1.2 -4.9
  Nov 16, 2024 201   Toledo L 67-82 30%     1 - 2 -19.4 -14.7 -4.2
  Nov 20, 2024 255   @ Ball St. W 70-59 25%     2 - 2 +8.0 -3.2 +11.7
  Nov 23, 2024 58   @ Wake Forest L 57-67 3%     2 - 3 +2.2 -4.2 +5.9
  Nov 26, 2024 238   Tulsa L 44-63 30%     2 - 4 -23.5 -26.1 +0.8
  Nov 27, 2024 121   Rhode Island L 75-81 13%     2 - 5 -3.7 +4.0 -7.7
  Nov 30, 2024 300   @ Eastern Michigan W 98-89 OT 32%     3 - 5 +3.7 +9.6 -6.9
  Dec 05, 2024 149   Purdue Fort Wayne W 79-78 21%     4 - 5 1 - 0 -0.6 +4.1 -4.7
  Dec 07, 2024 196   Wright St. L 72-80 29%     4 - 6 1 - 1 -12.1 -2.1 -10.4
  Dec 14, 2024 126   @ Davidson L 51-86 9%     4 - 7 -30.4 -19.7 -12.2
  Dec 18, 2024 244   @ Northern Kentucky L 60-73 24%     4 - 8 1 - 2 -15.4 -8.7 -7.3
  Dec 22, 2024 17   @ Wisconsin L 53-76 1%     4 - 9 -4.0 -10.5 +5.5
  Dec 29, 2024 219   @ Youngstown St. L 64-73 19%     4 - 10 1 - 3 -9.8 -12.5 +3.5
  Jan 02, 2025 194   Robert Morris W 78-76 OT 28%     5 - 10 2 - 3 -2.1 +1.0 -3.1
  Jan 04, 2025 133   Wisconsin-Milwaukee L 56-64 19%     5 - 11 2 - 4 -8.9 -17.1 +8.2
  Jan 09, 2025 330   @ IU Indianapolis L 61-95 43%     5 - 12 2 - 5 -42.1 -15.9 -28.5
  Jan 11, 2025 149   @ Purdue Fort Wayne L 67-90 11%     5 - 13 2 - 6 -19.6 -3.2 -17.8
  Jan 18, 2025 188   Oakland L 59-65 28%     5 - 14 2 - 7 -9.8 -6.7 -4.1
  Jan 22, 2025 157   @ Cleveland St. L 50-65 12%     5 - 15 2 - 8 -12.0 -15.3 +2.0
  Jan 25, 2025 196   @ Wright St. L 50-67 16%     5 - 16 2 - 9 -16.2 -18.5 +0.1
  Jan 30, 2025 244   Northern Kentucky W 68-57 40%     6 - 16 3 - 9 +3.6 -3.8 +7.7
  Feb 01, 2025 347   Green Bay W 67-57 67%     7 - 16 4 - 9 -4.5 -8.3 +4.7
  Feb 05, 2025 194   @ Robert Morris L 64-75 14%    
  Feb 08, 2025 219   Youngstown St. L 66-70 37%    
  Feb 16, 2025 188   @ Oakland L 59-70 14%    
  Feb 19, 2025 330   IU Indianapolis W 72-69 64%    
  Feb 21, 2025 157   Cleveland St. L 62-70 24%    
  Feb 27, 2025 347   @ Green Bay L 70-71 47%    
  Mar 01, 2025 133   @ Wisconsin-Milwaukee L 64-78 9%    
Projected Record 9 - 21 6 - 14




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Horizon Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.0 3rd
4th 4th
5th 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 6th
7th 0.1 0.5 0.7 0.1 1.3 7th
8th 0.1 1.4 5.0 4.8 1.1 0.0 12.4 8th
9th 9.9 24.8 16.9 3.7 0.2 55.5 9th
10th 7.6 15.3 6.3 1.0 0.0 30.4 10th
11th 0.1 0.0 0.1 11th
Total 7.7 25.3 32.5 23.0 9.1 2.1 0.3 0.0 Total



Horizon Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9 0.0% 0.0
10-10 0.3% 0.3
9-11 2.1% 1.0% 1.0% 16.0 0.0 2.0
8-12 9.1% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 9.0
7-13 23.0% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.1 23.0
6-14 32.5% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.1 32.5
5-15 25.3% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 25.3
4-16 7.7% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 7.7
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 16.0 0.2 99.8 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 6.1%