Detroit Mercy
Horizon
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -6.7 #281
Expected Predictive Rating -7.0 #268
Pace 70.3 #154
Improvement +4.4 #15

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #223 D C- B- C F
Defense #316 C- D F C- D

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 32% #333 1.10 #255 -5.1 #328
2 Pt. Jumpers 36% #5 0.82 #95 +7.2 #3
Three Pointers 32% #336 0.93 #275 -5.7 #337
1st FG Attempt 0.94 #276 -3.6 #276
Freethrows 15.3 #290 79% #15 12.1 #206
Second Chance 32.1% #143 0.94 #294 0.30 #216
Turnovers 15.2% #92
Total Offense -2.2 #223

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 38% #194 1.21 #245 -0.8 #206
2 Pt. Jumpers 15% #320 0.68 #94 +2.4 #34
Three Pointers 46% #50 1.04 #225 -3.3 #310
1st FG Attempt 1.05 #236 -1.8 #238
Freethrows 19.1 #269 70% #98 13.4 #129
Second Chance 32.0% #229 1.17 #312 0.37 #299
Turnovers 13.6% #330
Total Defense -4.6 #316

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -5.1% #362 1.3% #285
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -2.1% #213 2.2% #224
Possession Length 17.0 #152 16.4 #51
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.17 #190 0.21 #309
Improvement +3.2 #23 +1.2 #103

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 2.1% 2.4% 1.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.7 15.7 15.9
.500 or above 4.6% 5.8% 1.3%
.500 or above in Conference 31.0% 37.1% 15.3%
Conference Champion 0.4% 0.6% 0.1%
Last Place in Conference 1.4% 0.5% 3.5%
First Four1.1% 1.2% 1.0%
First Round1.6% 1.9% 0.8%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Cleveland St. (Home) - 71.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 20 - 4
Quad 32 - 82 - 12
Quad 48 - 710 - 18


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 184 @Illinois-Chicago L 71 - 91 22%  -6  0 - 1 -19 -9 F F C -8 D- F B-
 Fri, Nov 7 59 @Notre Dame L 70 - 102 5%  -17  0 - 2 -20 -1 B C- D- -16 D- F F
 Sat, Nov 15 180 @Toledo L 83 - 90 22%  -4  0 - 3 -5 +2 D D+ A- -7 F C- A-
 Tue, Nov 18 197 Eastern Michigan L 62 - 72 44%  +1  0 - 4 -15 -12 F C- C- -3 D C B
 Fri, Nov 21 14 @Michigan St. L 56 - 84 1%  -16  0 - 5 -7 -2 B- C F -6 B- F C
 Sun, Nov 23 102 @DePaul L 75 - 95 9%  -6  0 - 6 -12 +12 A D+ B- -25 F F F
 Sat, Nov 29 354 @Niagara W 70 - 66 64%  +6  1 - 6 -6 -3 F C- B -3 D C- F
 Wed, Dec 3 355 IU Indianapolis W 92 - 78 82%  +10  2 - 6 1 - 0 -2 +8 F A+ A+ -11 C C- D
 Sat, Dec 6 321 @Cleveland St. W 71 - 59 51%  +4  3 - 6 2 - 0 +5 -0 F F A+ +7 A+ D C+
 Sun, Dec 14 243 @Purdue Fort Wayne L 77 - 81 31%  -2  3 - 7 2 - 1 -6 +5 D- D+ A+ -11 D+ C- F
 Mon, Dec 29 210 @Youngstown St. W 73 - 68 25%  +7  4 - 7 3 - 1 +5 +2 B- F C- +3 A+ A F
 Fri, Jan 2 206 Robert Morris L 77 - 85 45%  -0  4 - 8 3 - 2 -14 +2 B B- F -16 C F B-
 Fri, Jan 9 148 Wright St. L 82 - 84 34%  -6  4 - 9 3 - 3 -4 +7 D+ A+ A+ -12 F B+ C
 Sun, Jan 11 321 Cleveland St. W 82 - 76 72% 
 Thu, Jan 15 174 @Northern Kentucky L 73 - 82 21% 
 Sat, Jan 17 355 @IU Indianapolis W 88 - 84 63% 
 Wed, Jan 21 243 Purdue Fort Wayne W 77 - 76 54% 
 Sat, Jan 24 124 Oakland L 81 - 87 29% 
 Fri, Jan 30 174 Northern Kentucky L 76 - 79 40% 
 Wed, Feb 4 226 @Wisconsin-Milwaukee L 75 - 81 29% 
 Sat, Feb 7 249 @Green Bay L 71 - 76 33% 
 Thu, Feb 12 148 @Wright St. L 69 - 79 18% 
 Sun, Feb 15 210 Youngstown St. L 74 - 75 47% 
 Fri, Feb 20 226 Wisconsin-Milwaukee L 78 - 79 49% 
 Sun, Feb 22 249 Green Bay W 74 - 73 54% 
 Wed, Feb 25 206 @Robert Morris L 71 - 78 25% 
 Sat, Feb 28 124 @Oakland L 78 - 90 14% 
Totals 9 - 18 8 - 12 -7 -2 D C- B- -5 C- D F




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Horizon Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.4 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.4 0.1 0.0 1.3 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.5 1.6 1.2 0.2 0.0 3.5 3rd
4th 0.0 0.5 2.6 2.1 0.4 0.0 5.6 4th
5th 0.0 0.5 3.7 4.1 0.7 0.0 9.1 5th
6th 0.0 0.4 3.9 6.1 1.6 0.0 12.0 6th
7th 0.0 0.4 4.0 7.5 3.4 0.1 15.4 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.8 4.7 9.3 4.8 0.5 20.2 8th
9th 0.0 0.5 2.8 7.6 9.6 4.7 0.7 0.0 25.9 9th
10th 0.2 1.1 2.2 1.9 0.8 0.1 6.3 10th
11th 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.4 11th
Total 0.3 1.8 5.2 10.3 15.5 18.5 17.5 14.1 9.0 4.6 2.2 0.8 0.2 0.0 0.0 Total



Horizon Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3 100.0% 0.0    0.0
16-4 87.5% 0.0    0.0 0.0
15-5 56.8% 0.1    0.0 0.1 0.0
14-6 22.9% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0
13-7 3.4% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.4% 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3 0.0% 0.0
16-4 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
15-5 0.2% 20.5% 20.5% 14.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2
14-6 0.8% 11.1% 11.1% 14.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.7
13-7 2.2% 9.9% 9.9% 15.3 0.0 0.1 0.1 2.0
12-8 4.6% 6.7% 6.7% 15.4 0.2 0.1 4.3
11-9 9.0% 5.0% 5.0% 15.9 0.1 0.4 8.6
10-10 14.1% 2.8% 2.8% 16.0 0.0 0.4 13.7
9-11 17.5% 1.5% 1.5% 16.0 0.3 17.2
8-12 18.5% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.1 18.3
7-13 15.5% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.1 15.4
6-14 10.3% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 10.2
5-15 5.2% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 5.2
4-16 1.8% 1.8
3-17 0.3% 0.3
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 2.1% 2.1% 0.0% 15.7 97.9 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.2%