Detroit Mercy
Horizon
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-9.0#321
Expected Predictive Rating-5.3#258
Pace67.6#219
Improvement-0.6#220

Offense
Total Offense-5.3#324
First Shot-6.1#339
After Offensive Rebound+0.8#131
Layup/Dunks-7.4#355
2 Pt Jumpshots+7.2#3
3 Pt Jumpshots-4.4#314
Freethrows-1.5#275
Improvement-0.5#215

Defense
Total Defense-3.7#290
First Shot-3.4#290
After Offensive Rebounds-0.2#207
Layups/Dunks-0.7#195
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.0#37
3 Pt Jumpshots-4.4#335
Freethrows-0.3#209
Improvement-0.1#190
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.6% 1.0% 0.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.8 15.7 15.9
.500 or above 1.4% 4.3% 0.8%
.500 or above in Conference 10.3% 23.3% 7.8%
Conference Champion 0.1% 0.4% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 18.2% 8.1% 20.1%
First Four0.4% 0.5% 0.4%
First Round0.4% 0.7% 0.3%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Youngstown St. (Away) - 16.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 30 - 5
Quad 32 - 82 - 13
Quad 48 - 810 - 21


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2024 121   @ Loyola Chicago L 65-87 9%     0 - 1 -16.4 -4.6 -11.3
  Nov 10, 2024 320   Niagara W 84-78 OT 61%     1 - 1 -6.0 -1.9 -4.5
  Nov 16, 2024 208   Toledo L 67-82 36%     1 - 2 -20.3 -14.2 -5.6
  Nov 20, 2024 252   @ Ball St. W 70-59 25%     2 - 2 +9.1 -0.7 +10.3
  Nov 23, 2024 89   @ Wake Forest L 57-67 5%     2 - 3 -0.7 -6.2 +5.0
  Nov 26, 2024 239   Tulsa L 44-63 33%     2 - 4 -23.4 -26.6 +1.5
  Nov 27, 2024 93   Rhode Island L 75-81 9%     2 - 5 -0.5 +4.7 -5.2
  Nov 30, 2024 305   @ Eastern Michigan W 98-89 OT 35%     3 - 5 +4.1 +10.2 -7.2
  Dec 05, 2024 160   Purdue Fort Wayne W 79-78 28%     4 - 5 1 - 0 -2.1 +3.2 -5.2
  Dec 07, 2024 168   Wright St. L 72-80 30%     4 - 6 1 - 1 -11.4 -2.5 -9.4
  Dec 14, 2024 122   @ Davidson L 51-86 9%     4 - 7 -29.5 -18.3 -12.6
  Dec 18, 2024 205   @ Northern Kentucky L 60-73 18%     4 - 8 1 - 2 -12.1 -7.0 -5.6
  Dec 22, 2024 34   @ Wisconsin L 53-76 2%     4 - 9 -7.7 -12.1 +3.4
  Dec 29, 2024 187   @ Youngstown St. L 63-74 16%    
  Jan 02, 2025 256   Robert Morris L 69-70 47%    
  Jan 04, 2025 132   Wisconsin-Milwaukee L 71-79 24%    
  Jan 09, 2025 351   @ IU Indianapolis W 71-70 51%    
  Jan 11, 2025 160   @ Purdue Fort Wayne L 71-83 13%    
  Jan 18, 2025 183   Oakland L 64-69 33%    
  Jan 22, 2025 218   @ Cleveland St. L 65-74 20%    
  Jan 25, 2025 168   @ Wright St. L 69-81 14%    
  Jan 30, 2025 205   Northern Kentucky L 65-69 36%    
  Feb 01, 2025 329   Green Bay W 77-73 63%    
  Feb 05, 2025 256   @ Robert Morris L 66-73 27%    
  Feb 08, 2025 187   Youngstown St. L 66-71 33%    
  Feb 16, 2025 183   @ Oakland L 61-72 16%    
  Feb 19, 2025 351   IU Indianapolis W 73-67 72%    
  Feb 21, 2025 218   Cleveland St. L 68-71 39%    
  Feb 27, 2025 329   @ Green Bay L 74-76 41%    
  Mar 01, 2025 132   @ Wisconsin-Milwaukee L 68-82 11%    
Projected Record 10 - 20 7 - 13




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Horizon Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.8 3rd
4th 0.0 0.2 0.7 0.5 0.1 1.5 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 1.1 1.3 0.2 0.0 2.9 5th
6th 0.0 0.4 1.9 2.4 0.7 0.0 5.4 6th
7th 0.1 1.0 3.5 4.1 1.6 0.1 10.4 7th
8th 0.0 0.5 3.1 6.8 6.9 2.5 0.2 20.1 8th
9th 0.1 1.8 6.6 10.4 7.8 2.4 0.3 0.0 29.4 9th
10th 0.1 1.9 5.8 6.6 3.5 0.8 0.1 18.8 10th
11th 0.4 1.9 3.5 3.1 1.2 0.2 0.0 10.4 11th
Total 0.4 2.1 5.6 10.7 15.0 17.2 16.4 13.2 9.1 5.5 2.9 1.2 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0 Total



Horizon Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4 100.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
15-5 45.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
14-6 32.4% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
13-7 4.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.2% 0.0    0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.1% 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4 0.0% 0.0
15-5 0.0% 5.0% 5.0% 15.0 0.0 0.0
14-6 0.1% 12.7% 12.7% 14.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
13-7 0.5% 4.9% 4.9% 15.5 0.0 0.0 0.4
12-8 1.2% 4.7% 4.7% 15.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.2
11-9 2.9% 2.3% 2.3% 15.6 0.0 0.0 2.9
10-10 5.5% 1.8% 1.8% 15.9 0.0 0.1 5.4
9-11 9.1% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.1 9.0
8-12 13.2% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.1 13.2
7-13 16.4% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.1 16.4
6-14 17.2% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 17.2
5-15 15.0% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 15.0
4-16 10.7% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 10.7
3-17 5.6% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 5.6
2-18 2.1% 2.1
1-19 0.4% 0.4
0-20
Total 100% 0.6% 0.6% 0.0% 15.8 0.0 0.1 0.5 99.5 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.3%