Detroit Mercy
Horizon
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -6.5 #278
Expected Predictive Rating -6.1 #261
Pace 71.2 #116
Improvement +4.5 #24

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #211 D+ C C+ C- F
Defense #312 C- C- D- D D

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 30% #349 1.08 #267 -5.9 #348
2 Pt. Jumpers 36% #5 0.77 #158 +5.9 #6
Three Pointers 34% #318 1.00 #204 -3.8 #309
1st FG Attempt 0.94 #296 -3.8 #296
Freethrows 0.28 #259 75% #89 0.21 #215
Second Chance 32.9% #121 0.92 #307 0.30 #200
Turnovers 15.6% #114
Total Offense -1.8 #211

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 40% #150 1.21 #250 -1.7 #234
2 Pt. Jumpers 15% #334 0.72 #107 +2.4 #23
Three Pointers 45% #66 1.04 #223 -2.7 #297
1st FG Attempt 1.06 #247 -2.0 #246
Freethrows 0.36 #322 72% #140 0.26 #318
Second Chance 31.7% #228 1.09 #274 0.35 #263
Turnovers 13.5% #335
Total Defense -4.8 #312

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -5.0% #361 1.6% #317
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -2.5% #218 2.3% #222
Possession Length 17.3 #185 16.2 #31
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.18 #133 0.20 #278
Improvement +3.6 #24 +0.9 #132

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 2.1% 2.9% 1.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.9 15.8 16.0
.500 or above 1.7% 3.9% 0.5%
.500 or above in Conference 33.4% 56.4% 21.3%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.4% 0.1% 0.5%
First Four1.5% 1.7% 1.4%
First Round1.4% 2.1% 1.0%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Wisconsin-Milwaukee (Away) - 34.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 1
Quad 20 - 40 - 5
Quad 32 - 82 - 12
Quad 49 - 611 - 18


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 135 @Illinois-Chicago L 71 - 91 15% -6  0 - 1 -15 -7 F F C+ -6 D+ F B-
 Fri, Nov 7 81 @Notre Dame L 70 - 102 7% -17  0 - 2 -22 -4 C+ F+ D -16 D F F
 Sat, Nov 15 159 @Toledo L 83 - 90 19% -4  0 - 3 -4 +2 D C- B -6 D- C- B
 Tue, Nov 18 237 Eastern Michigan L 62 - 72 53% +1  0 - 4 -17 -12 F C+ C- -5 D+ C- C+
 Fri, Nov 21 10 @Michigan St. L 56 - 84 1% -16  0 - 5 -5 -1 C+ C F -4 B+ F C
 Sun, Nov 23 94 @DePaul L 75 - 95 8% -9  0 - 6 -11 +12 B C B- -24 F F F
 Sat, Nov 29 349 @Niagara W 70 - 66 60% +6  1 - 6 -5 -2 F C B- -3 C- C- F
 Wed, Dec 3 340 IU Indianapolis W 92 - 78 78% +10  2 - 6 1 - 0 -1 +9 F A+ A+ -10 C C- D
 Sat, Dec 6 306 @Cleveland St. W 71 - 59 45% +4  3 - 6 2 - 0 +7 -1 F+ F A +9 A+ D+ C+
 Sun, Dec 14 216 @Purdue Fort Wayne L 77 - 81 27% -2  3 - 7 2 - 1 -4 +6 D- C A+ -11 D+ C- F
 Mon, Dec 29 225 @Youngstown St. W 73 - 68 28% +7  4 - 7 3 - 1 +4 +1 C+ F C- +4 A B+ F
 Fri, Jan 2 220 Robert Morris L 77 - 85 49% -0  4 - 8 3 - 2 -14 +2 B- B- F -16 C+ F C+
 Fri, Jan 9 144 Wright St. L 82 - 84 33% -6  4 - 9 3 - 3 -4 +6 D+ A+ B+ -10 D B+ C+
 Sun, Jan 11 306 Cleveland St. W 94 - 84 68% +11  5 - 9 4 - 3 -1 +4 C B- F -6 F+ A+ C-
 Thu, Jan 15 193 @Northern Kentucky L 71 - 96 24% -12  5 - 10 4 - 4 -24 -6 F B- A+ -16 F C F
 Sat, Jan 17 340 @IU Indianapolis W 80 - 77 58% -1  6 - 10 5 - 4 -6 -4 F F C -2 C+ F C
 Wed, Jan 21 216 Purdue Fort Wayne L 76 - 83 49% -2  6 - 11 5 - 5 -13 -2 D- F+ A- -11 C- B- F
 Sat, Jan 24 129 Oakland L 87 - 95 30% -4  6 - 12 5 - 6 -9 +11 A+ C C- -21 F+ D+ F
 Fri, Jan 30 193 Northern Kentucky W 90 - 77 45% +9  7 - 12 6 - 6 +8 +14 A+ A- D+ -6 B- A- F
 Wed, Feb 4 254 @Wisconsin-Milwaukee L 77 - 81 34%
 Sat, Feb 7 258 @Green Bay L 74 - 78 35%
 Thu, Feb 12 144 @Wright St. L 73 - 83 16%
 Sun, Feb 15 225 Youngstown St. W 77 - 76 50%
 Fri, Feb 20 254 Wisconsin-Milwaukee W 80 - 78 57%
 Sun, Feb 22 258 Green Bay W 77 - 75 57%
 Wed, Feb 25 220 @Robert Morris L 72 - 78 27%
 Sat, Feb 28 129 @Oakland L 78 - 89 14%
Totals 10 - 17 9 - 11 -7 -2 D+ C C+ -5 C- C- D-




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Horizon Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.3 2nd
3rd 0.4 1.7 1.6 0.3 4.0 3rd
4th 0.4 5.6 5.6 1.5 0.1 13.1 4th
5th 0.0 4.2 9.5 2.1 0.0 15.9 5th
6th 0.9 11.3 4.1 0.1 16.5 6th
7th 0.1 6.7 9.1 0.5 16.5 7th
8th 0.1 2.4 11.1 1.5 0.0 15.0 8th
9th 1.0 6.8 4.4 0.1 12.2 9th
10th 2.5 3.7 0.4 6.6 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.0 11th
Total 3.6 13.0 23.5 26.5 20.3 9.5 3.1 0.5 0.1 Total



Horizon Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6 36.4% 0.0    0.0 0.0
13-7 0.0%
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6 0.1% 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.5% 10.4% 10.4% 15.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.5
12-8 3.1% 7.5% 7.5% 15.3 0.2 0.1 2.9
11-9 9.5% 5.3% 5.3% 16.0 0.0 0.5 9.0
10-10 20.3% 3.0% 3.0% 16.0 0.6 19.6
9-11 26.5% 1.5% 1.5% 16.0 0.4 26.1
8-12 23.5% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.2 23.3
7-13 13.0% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.1 12.9
6-14 3.6% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 3.6
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 2.1% 2.1% 0.0% 15.9 97.9 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 2.3%