Florida A&M
Southwestern Athletic
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -9.6 #317
Expected Predictive Rating -8.4 #299
Pace 68.1 #201
Improvement +3.2 #51

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #337 D+ D F+ D C-
Defense #263 D+ C C+ D D+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 36% #237 1.17 #158 -1.1 #220
2 Pt. Jumpers 24% #105 0.67 #314 +0.3 #163
Three Pointers 40% #211 0.90 #323 -3.0 #287
1st FG Attempt 0.94 #299 -3.8 #299
Freethrows 0.28 #255 65% #350 0.18 #308
Second Chance 27.6% #268 0.86 #352 0.24 #335
Turnovers 20.5% #353
Total Offense -6.7 #337

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 42% #93 1.23 #273 -3.5 #297
2 Pt. Jumpers 18% #276 0.76 #185 +1.1 #105
Three Pointers 40% #203 1.08 #272 -0.9 #228
1st FG Attempt 1.08 #288 -3.3 #289
Freethrows 0.34 #293 78% #362 0.26 #326
Second Chance 32.4% #265 0.99 #115 0.32 #195
Turnovers 17.4% #131
Total Defense -2.9 #263

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -1.2% #266 1.3% #286
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -6.4% #293 5.1% #281
Possession Length 17.7 #229 16.5 #60
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.15 #238 0.22 #334
Improvement +1.2 #115 +2.0 #73

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 6.2% 7.9% 5.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 10.2% 18.2% 4.8%
.500 or above in Conference 75.6% 89.8% 66.0%
Conference Champion 8.4% 14.4% 4.3%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four5.6% 7.1% 4.5%
First Round3.2% 4.2% 2.6%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Alabama St. (Away) - 40.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 30 - 4
Quad 20 - 10 - 4
Quad 30 - 30 - 7
Quad 411 - 1011 - 17


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 70 @South Florida L 67 - 102 4% -15  0 - 1 -24 -10 F B F -10 D- C B
 Sat, Nov 8 142 Kennesaw St. L 72 - 92 23% -9  0 - 2 -22 -12 F D C -8 F A- C+
 Tue, Nov 11 44 @Central Florida L 60 - 97 2% -22  0 - 3 -22 -11 D+ F F+ -9 F D A+
 Mon, Nov 17 34 @Georgia L 57 - 87 2% -20  0 - 4 -13 -13 C F F +3 A D- B+
 Tue, Dec 2 295 @Jacksonville L 82 - 85 OT 32% +0  0 - 5 -8 +4 A+ F+ F -12 D D+ F
 Wed, Dec 17 295 Jacksonville W 72 - 65 54% +9  1 - 5 -4 +1 C- F A- -4 D A+ C
 Fri, Dec 19 226 @Tarleton St. L 54 - 78 20% -14  1 - 6 -25 -23 F F F +1 C F A+
 Sun, Dec 21 51 @TCU L 56 - 80 3% -5  1 - 7 -11 -4 C+ F A+ -8 C C- C+
 Sun, Dec 28 115 @Georgia Tech L 65 - 89 8% -17  1 - 8 -18 -6 C- F+ C -10 F F A+
 Sat, Jan 3 236 @Bethune-Cookman L 83 - 87 21% -4  1 - 9 0 - 1 -5 +9 C+ C+ C -14 F C D-
 Sat, Jan 10 266 Southern W 67 - 59 48% +4  2 - 9 1 - 1 -1 -6 F+ C- F +5 C A+ B+
 Mon, Jan 12 287 Grambling St. W 91 - 84 53% +3  3 - 9 2 - 1 -3 +12 A- A- D+ -16 D- F F
 Sat, Jan 17 331 @Arkansas Pine Bluff W 71 - 67 42% +1  4 - 9 3 - 1 -4 -1 C+ C- F -2 C F+ C+
 Mon, Jan 19 365 @Mississippi Valley W 62 - 48 85% +13  5 - 9 4 - 1 -7 -12 F C- F +7 A- A F
 Sat, Jan 24 348 Alcorn St. W 66 - 58 70% -0  6 - 9 5 - 1 -7 -10 C- B- F +4 C+ B A
 Mon, Jan 26 337 Jackson St. L 65 - 66 68% +3  6 - 10 5 - 2 -15 -6 D- F B- -9 C F D+
 Sat, Jan 31 293 @Alabama A&M L 65 - 72 31% -8  6 - 11 5 - 3 -12 -2 D D F -11 D- B- C-
 Mon, Feb 2 322 @Alabama St. L 72 - 75 40%
 Sat, Feb 7 309 Texas Southern W 76 - 74 59%
 Mon, Feb 9 339 Prairie View W 78 - 73 67%
 Sat, Feb 14 337 @Jackson St. L 74 - 75 46%
 Mon, Feb 16 348 @Alcorn St. L 72 - 73 48%
 Thu, Feb 19 293 Alabama A&M W 70 - 69 54%
 Thu, Feb 19 322 Alabama St. W 75 - 72 62%
 Thu, Feb 26 266 @Southern L 69 - 76 26%
 Sat, Feb 28 287 @Grambling St. L 67 - 72 31%
 Thu, Mar 5 236 Bethune-Cookman L 71 - 73 42%
Totals 11 - 16 10 - 8 -10 -7 D+ D F+ -3 D+ C C+




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southwestern Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.7 3.1 3.4 1.1 0.2 8.4 1st
2nd 0.7 6.3 5.8 1.2 0.0 14.1 2nd
3rd 0.1 5.3 7.6 1.4 0.0 14.4 3rd
4th 1.3 9.4 2.4 0.0 13.2 4th
5th 0.0 6.0 5.5 0.1 11.7 5th
6th 1.0 8.4 1.1 10.4 6th
7th 0.0 4.2 4.0 0.0 8.2 7th
8th 0.8 5.9 0.5 7.2 8th
9th 0.1 2.5 2.9 0.0 5.4 9th
10th 0.0 0.8 2.8 0.4 3.9 10th
11th 0.4 1.7 1.0 0.0 3.1 11th
12th 12th
Total 0.5 2.5 7.0 14.4 20.2 22.0 17.1 10.3 4.6 1.1 0.2 Total



Southwestern Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 100.0% 0.2    0.2 0.0
14-4 96.4% 1.1    0.9 0.2
13-5 73.1% 3.4    1.7 1.5 0.2 0.0
12-6 29.6% 3.1    0.6 1.4 0.9 0.2 0.0
11-7 3.8% 0.7    0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0
10-8 0.0% 0.0    0.0
9-9 0.0%
Total 8.4% 8.4 3.3 3.2 1.2 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 0.2% 25.7% 25.7% 15.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
14-4 1.1% 18.7% 18.7% 16.0 0.2 0.9
13-5 4.6% 13.4% 13.4% 16.0 0.0 0.6 4.0
12-6 10.3% 10.0% 10.0% 16.0 0.0 1.0 9.3
11-7 17.1% 8.7% 8.7% 16.0 1.5 15.7
10-8 22.0% 7.4% 7.4% 16.0 1.6 20.4
9-9 20.2% 4.8% 4.8% 16.0 1.0 19.2
8-10 14.4% 1.0% 1.0% 16.0 0.1 14.3
7-11 7.0% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 7.0
6-12 2.5% 2.5
5-13 0.5% 0.5
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 6.2% 6.2% 0.0% 16.0 93.9 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.5%