Florida A&M
Southwestern Athletic
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -10.7 328
Results Rating -10.3 324
Pace 69.6 143
Improvement +2.0 105

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense D- 349 D D- F D+ D+
Defense D+ 257 D C B- D D+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 36% 260 C- 57% 207 -2.0 257
2 Pt. Jumpers 49% 57 D 33% 330 +0.3 157
Three Pointers 39% 215 D 31% 303 -2.7 273
Shot Selection/Accuracy D+ -0.7 281 D -3.7 309
1st FG Attempt D 0.93 316
Second Chance D+ 27.0% 279 F 0.82 360 D- 0.22 348
Turnovers F 21.2% 358
Freethrows C- 0.29 225 D- 67% 336 D+ 0.20 283
Total Offense D- -7.9 349

Assists Blocks (Opponents')
Close Shots D- 38% 327 B 8.8% 60
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots C+ 28% 135 B- 3.7% 83
Three Pointers C 85% 170 F 2.5% 363
Total D+ 50% 302 C+ 5.0% 112

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 43% 61 C- 60% 246 +3.8 311
2 Pt. Jumpers 19% 242 D+ 41% 281 -0.3 168
Three Pointers 38% 265 D- 38% 333 +0.8 225
Shot Selection/Accuracy D+ +0.6 276 D +3.6 316
1st FG Attempt D 1.11 321
Second Chance C- 31.7% 237 B- 0.97 83 C 0.31 173
Turnovers B- 18.2% 94
Freethrows D+ 0.34 284 F+ 77% 353 D 0.26 317
Total Defense D+ -2.8 257

Assists Blocks
Close Shots C- 50% 207 C- 10.1% 203
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots C 27% 206 D 2.1% 327
Three Pointers C+ 83% 142 C- 0.7% 187
Total C 56% 192 C- 5.1% 213

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 17.7 227 16.6 53
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.16 210 0.24 352
Improvement +0.1 #177 +1.9 #84

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Prediction Sensitivity
Pessimistic
5th Percentile 		Expected
50th Percentile 		Optimistic
95th Percentile
Predictive Rating Rank 340 328 311
Results Rating Rank 340 325 299
Conference Record 8 - 10 9 - 9 10 - 8
Conference Finish 9 7 4
NCAA Tourney Seed None None None
NCAA Tourney Finish None None None

NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 4% 7% 3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 0% 1% 0%
.500 or above in Conference 64% 100% 54%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0%
First Four4% 7% 3%
First Round2% 3% 1%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Next Game: Southern (Away) - 21.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 30 - 4
Quad 20 - 00 - 4
Quad 30 - 20 - 6
Quad 410 - 1110 - 18


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 58 @South Florida L 67 - 102 3% -15  17% 0 - 1 F -23 F -12 F B F D- -7 D- C B+
 Sat, Nov 8 165 Kennesaw St. L 72 - 92 24% -9  10% 0 - 2 F -23 F -15 F D C+ D -5 F A C+
 Tue, Nov 11 51 @Central Florida L 60 - 97 2% -22  0% 0 - 3 F -23 F -15 D+ F F+ D -6 F F A+
 Mon, Nov 17 32 @Georgia L 57 - 87 1% -20  1% 0 - 4 D- -12 F -17 C- F+ F A- +7 A D- B+
 Tue, Dec 2 306 @Jacksonville L 82 - 85 OT 31% +0  42% 0 - 5 D -9 C +0 A+ F F F+ -9 D- D+ F
 Wed, Dec 17 306 Jacksonville W 72 - 65 53% +9  99% 1 - 5 C- -5 D+ -3 C- F B C -1 D- A+ C+
 Fri, Dec 19 230 @Tarleton St. L 54 - 78 17% -14  19% 1 - 6 F -25 F -24 F F F B- +2 C- F A+
 Sun, Dec 21 50 @TCU L 56 - 80 2% -5  43% 1 - 7 D -10 D- -7 C+ F A D -5 C C- B-
 Sun, Dec 28 140 @Georgia Tech L 65 - 89 9% -17  0% 1 - 8 F -20 F -11 D F B- F+ -8 F F A+
 Sat, Jan 3 240 @Bethune-Cookman L 83 - 87 19% -4  4% 1 - 9 0 - 1 D+ -5 B +7 C+ C+ C F -12 F C+ F+
 Sat, Jan 10 258 Southern W 67 - 59 42% +4  81% 2 - 9 1 - 1 C -1 F+ -9 F+ D+ F A +9 C+ A+ A-
 Mon, Jan 12 296 Grambling St. W 91 - 84 51% +3  69% 3 - 9 2 - 1 C- -4 A- +11 A A F F -15 F F F+
 Sat, Jan 17 329 @Arkansas Pine Bluff W 71 - 67 39% +1  65% 4 - 9 3 - 1 C- -4 D -5 C+ C- F C+ +1 C+ F B-
 Mon, Jan 19 365 @Mississippi Valley W 62 - 48 81% +13  99% 5 - 9 4 - 1 D+ -6 F -15 F D F A +10 A- A F+
 Sat, Jan 24 345 Alcorn St. W 66 - 58 68% -0  42% 6 - 9 5 - 1 D+ -8 F -13 C- C+ F B+ +6 C+ B+ A+
 Mon, Jan 26 337 Jackson St. L 65 - 66 66% +3  85% 6 - 10 5 - 2 F+ -16 F -10 F+ F C+ D -6 C F D+
 Sat, Jan 31 310 @Alabama A&M L 65 - 72 31% -8  0% 6 - 11 5 - 3 D- -13 D -5 D- D- F F+ -8 D- B- C-
 Mon, Feb 2 312 @Alabama St. L 66 - 79 33% -3  32% 6 - 12 5 - 4 F -19 F -13 F+ F F D -6 F A A
 Sat, Feb 7 305 Texas Southern L 57 - 62 53% -4  14% 6 - 13 5 - 5 F+ -17 F -18 F F F C+ +1 D- A A+
 Mon, Feb 9 331 Prairie View W 100 - 96 63% +13  94% 7 - 13 6 - 5 D -10 C- -0 A B- F F -11 F D+ A
 Sat, Feb 14 337 @Jackson St. L 60 - 80 43% -12  0% 7 - 14 6 - 6 F -29 F -20 F F F+ F+ -9 F C D+
 Mon, Feb 16 345 @Alcorn St. W 86 - 78 45% +10  94% 8 - 14 7 - 6 C -2 B- +4 F A B+ D -6 C+ F F+
 Thu, Feb 19 310 Alabama A&M L 61 - 63 54% -1  17% 8 - 15 7 - 7 D- -14 F -13 D F F+ C -1 F C A-
 Sat, Feb 21 312 Alabama St. W 76 - 63 56% +5  77% 9 - 15 8 - 7 C +1 D+ -3 C+ F+ D B +4 C+ A- F+
 Thu, Feb 26 258 @Southern L 70 - 78 22%
 Sat, Feb 28 296 @Grambling St. L 65 - 71 30%
 Thu, Mar 5 240 Bethune-Cookman L 70 - 73 37%
Totals 10 - 17 9 - 9 -11 D- -8 A+ D D+ D+ -3 D D- D+



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings D- C- D D D 36% 49% 39% D+ D D+ F D- F C- D- D+ D+ C- D+ D- D 43% 19% 38% D+ D C- B- C B- D+ F+ D
0.97 57% 33% 31% -4 -1 0.93 27% 0.8 .22 21% .29 67% .20 1.13 60% 41% 38% +4 +1 1.11 32% 1.0 .31 18% .34 77% .22
Nov
3		 South Florida F B- F F F 42% 17% 40% B+ F C- A+ B F A+ C A+ D- C+ A+ F D- 55% 2% 43% F+ D- F A C B+ F F F
0.84 59% 11% 14% -16 +1 0.71 28% 1.3 .35 26% .44 69% .30 1.27 54% 0% 41% +1 +4 1.12 49% 0.9 .46 19% .61 85% .52
Nov
8		 Kennesaw St. F F F F F 49% 20% 31% C+ F C F D C+ A D+ B+ D F C F F 47% 15% 38% C- F A+ F A C+ F+ D+ F+
0.89 41% 25% 22% -16 +1 0.71 30% 0.8 .23 15% .48 73% .35 1.14 72% 38% 40% +10 +1 1.25 15% 1.5 .22 17% .42 71% .30
Nov
11		 Central Florida F D+ D+ D- D- 42% 16% 42% B D+ D- F F F+ A F C- D B- A+ F F 56% 16% 28% F F F B- F A+ C+ C+ C+
0.81 52% 38% 29% -6 +1 0.92 18% 0.3 .05 21% .38 55% .21 1.30 56% 22% 69% +11 +2 1.28 47% 1.1 .53 21% .27 75% .21
Nov
17		 Georgia F F+ B+ D+ D+ 39% 20% 41% C+ C- B- F F+ F B- F C- A- F F A+ A+ 46% 10% 44% D+ A F A- D- B+ F F F
0.75 44% 44% 32% -6 0 0.91 36% 0.5 .17 33% .27 57% .16 1.14 82% 60% 5% -6 +2 0.94 53% 0.9 .47 17% .55 83% .46
Dec
2		 Jacksonville C A+ F A+ A+ 33% 28% 39% F+ A+ F A+ F F F F F F+ C A+ F+ D 39% 12% 49% D- D- D- C+ D+ F C- B- C
1.11 83% 20% 62% +20 -1 1.39 8% 2.0 .16 23% .11 50% .05 1.15 57% 14% 38% -1 +1 1.03 33% 1.0 .33 12% .29 68% .20
Dec
17		 Jacksonville D+ B+ C+ D+ C 39% 31% 31% F+ C- D F F B A+ F B+ C B+ A+ F D 49% 11% 40% F D- A- A+ A+ C+ C- D- D+
1.10 68% 40% 33% +4 -1 1.08 27% 0.4 .10 12% .51 59% .30 1.00 48% 0% 47% -1 +2 1.04 23% 0.6 .13 18% .30 75% .23
Dec
19		 Tarleton St. F F+ F F F 43% 13% 45% B F F D F F B+ F C B- A F F C+ 61% 20% 18% F C- D- F F A+ F+ C+ D-
0.70 50% 17% 19% -16 +1 0.72 23% 1.0 .23 30% .44 63% .27 1.00 43% 50% 44% -4 +2 0.98 34% 1.3 .46 26% .40 74% .29
Dec
21		 TCU D- D- A+ D+ B 32% 34% 34% F C+ F F F A C+ F F+ D D- A+ D C 36% 16% 48% C C F+ B+ C- B- D- F F
0.86 47% 56% 31% +1 -2 1.00 13% 0.5 .06 15% .27 47% .13 1.23 67% 13% 38% +2 0 1.06 42% 0.9 .39 17% .41 86% .35
Dec
28		 Georgia Tech F C- C+ F D+ 25% 27% 48% D D C+ F F B- D+ F F F+ F D- F F 67% 16% 18% F F F B- F A+ F F+ F
0.88 53% 38% 28% -6 -2 0.87 30% 0.6 .18 15% .25 38% .10 1.20 70% 43% 63% +16 +3 1.40 44% 1.1 .48 27% .41 77% .31
Jan
3		 Bethune-Cookman B B D- A- B 35% 29% 35% F C+ F+ A+ C+ C B A+ A- F F D- B+ F 41% 24% 35% C+ F B+ F+ C+ F+ F F F
1.16 61% 33% 39% +2 -1 1.04 24% 1.6 .39 15% .36 82% .30 1.21 80% 42% 29% +7 0 1.16 22% 1.2 .26 14% .55 76% .42
Jan
10		 Southern F+ C+ F F+ F 38% 14% 48% B- F+ B F D+ F B A+ A A B- F A+ C+ 32% 29% 39% B- C+ C- A+ A+ A- F B- F
1.00 63% 17% 30% -4 +1 0.95 38% 0.8 .31 27% .41 85% .35 0.88 54% 58% 19% -4 -2 0.90 31% 0.5 .15 21% .51 67% .34
Jan
12		 Grambling St. A- A+ A+ C- A+ 28% 21% 51% F+ A B- A A F A+ A A+ F D+ C+ D- F+ 50% 18% 32% F+ F C F F F+ F F F
1.26 77% 70% 33% +12 -1 1.23 37% 1.3 .48 23% .47 81% .38 1.16 60% 33% 38% +2 +1 1.08 28% 1.4 .40 17% .43 85% .36
Jan
17		 Arkansas Pine Bluff D A+ F C B- 38% 19% 43% D+ C+ C- C- C- F A+ F B+ C+ D- B- B+ C 33% 28% 40% B- C+ A F F B- D- F F
1.08 81% 13% 33% +4 0 1.10 34% 1.1 .38 24% .48 67% .32 1.02 64% 33% 29% -2 -1 0.95 18% 2.0 .36 20% .36 84% .30
Jan
19		 Mississippi Valley F C D- F F 33% 20% 47% D+ F C- F+ D F F+ B+ D A A C A+ B+ 15% 45% 40% A A- B A+ A F+ C+ C- C+
0.96 60% 33% 29% -4 0 0.93 37% 1.1 .40 30% .33 80% .26 0.75 43% 38% 21% -10 -5 0.72 20% 0.5 .10 17% .26 71% .19
Jan
24		 Alcorn St. F B- F C- C- 53% 10% 38% B C- D A C+ F D F F+ B+ B+ F A+ B- 52% 19% 29% F C+ C A+ B+ A+ D- D F+
0.99 67% 25% 33% +3 +2 1.13 33% 1.4 .48 29% .30 64% .19 0.87 48% 67% 21% -5 +1 0.94 26% 0.6 .16 26% .30 73% .22
Jan
26		 Jackson St. F A+ F F D 25% 29% 46% F F+ D F F C+ D+ F F D F A+ D D+ 21% 40% 40% A+ C F D F D+ F B+ F
1.05 92% 21% 27% -1 -2 0.96 31% 0.8 .26 15% .32 53% .17 1.06 67% 24% 35% -3 -4 0.88 38% 1.1 .41 18% .41 71% .29
Jan
31		 Alabama A&M D F F A+ D 41% 27% 32% D D- B+ F D- F A+ B A+ F+ B- A+ F F+ 32% 23% 45% C D- F+ A+ B- C- F F F
1.04 41% 27% 54% 0 -1 1.00 38% 0.6 .24 21% .48 75% .36 1.15 50% 20% 45% +1 -1 1.02 31% 0.7 .22 16% .44 91% .40
Feb
2		 Alabama St. F F A+ D F 47% 14% 39% B- F+ F F F F D B D+ D B- F F F 35% 25% 39% C+ F C- A+ A A C F+ D+
0.91 43% 57% 32% -6 +1 0.94 24% 0.9 .21 23% .32 78% .25 1.09 50% 54% 50% +11 -1 1.22 31% 0.5 .14 23% .29 75% .22
Feb
7		 Texas Southern F F D+ D F 30% 26% 44% F F A- F F F A- D B C+ A+ F F F+ 46% 26% 28% D+ D- D- A+ A A+ A F B+
0.89 46% 36% 32% -6 -1 0.88 41% 0.3 .12 25% .44 67% .29 0.97 38% 67% 46% +3 0 1.09 30% 0.6 .17 23% .20 80% .16
Feb
9		 Prairie View C- B F A+ A 47% 27% 25% D+ A B- B- B- F A F B- F F+ A+ F F 52% 22% 26% F F C- D+ D+ A F A F
1.16 65% 20% 71% +13 0 1.27 39% 1.2 .45 27% .46 66% .30 1.12 64% 25% 43% +4 +1 1.11 24% 1.1 .27 21% .59 68% .40
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Feb
14		 Jackson St. F F F F F 31% 29% 40% F F F F F F+ A+ A+ A+ F+ D- F+ D- F 52% 26% 22% F F F A+ C D+ D- D+ F+
0.86 50% 23% 22% -14 -2 0.71 20% 0.9 .17 19% .48 89% .43 1.15 62% 46% 36% +5 0 1.12 38% 0.7 .26 17% .33 79% .26
Feb
16		 Alcorn St. B- D F B- F+ 35% 24% 41% F F C- A+ A B+ A+ D+ A+ D C+ C+ B C+ 46% 29% 25% C C+ C- F F F+ F F F
1.20 56% 27% 37% -1 -1 0.98 36% 1.7 .61 15% .50 70% .35 1.09 54% 33% 31% -4 -1 0.92 27% 1.8 .47 15% .38 87% .33
Feb
19		 Alabama A&M F D- F B D 31% 16% 53% D+ D D F F F+ F C F C D B- F F 45% 27% 27% D+ F A+ F C A- B+ F C+
0.97 53% 25% 38% 0 0 1.02 28% 0.6 .17 19% .14 71% .10 1.00 60% 33% 42% +3 0 1.07 13% 2.0 .25 21% .28 86% .24
Feb
21		 Alabama St. D+ A+ B- F B- 40% 21% 38% D+ C+ C F F+ D A+ F B B A B- F+ C 34% 30% 36% B+ C+ A+ D- A- F+ F A+ C
1.09 79% 40% 28% +5 0 1.13 34% 0.8 .26 20% .50 61% .30 0.90 41% 33% 39% -5 -2 0.90 17% 1.0 .17 14% .40 50% .20



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southwestern Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 0.1 1.3 1.4 2nd
3rd 1.5 1.3 2.8 3rd
4th 0.1 6.2 0.3 6.6 4th
5th 2.4 7.3 9.7 5th
6th 0.3 16.6 3.2 20.1 6th
7th 11.2 21.8 0.2 33.3 7th
8th 16.7 2.0 18.6 8th
9th 7.0 0.1 7.1 9th
10th 0.5 0.5 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 11th
12th 12th
Total 35.6 42.9 18.5 3.0 Total



Southwestern Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7 3.0% 8.5% 8.5% 16.0 0.3 2.7
10-8 18.5% 7.8% 7.8% 16.0 1.5 17.1
9-9 42.9% 5.0% 5.0% 16.0 2.1 40.8
8-10 35.6% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.1 35.5
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 4.0% 4.0% 0.0% 16.0 96.0 0.0%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.3% 100.0% 16.0 100.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.4%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.8%
Lose Out 34.5%