McNeese St.
Southland
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+6.5#87
Expected Predictive Rating+5.2#92
Pace64.4#287
Improvement-1.7#266

Offense
Total Offense+3.3#87
First Shot+3.4#84
After Offensive Rebound-0.1#191
Layup/Dunks+3.6#60
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.9#121
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.4#288
Freethrows+2.3#56
Improvement+0.2#172

Defense
Total Defense+3.2#90
First Shot+5.2#40
After Offensive Rebounds-1.9#322
Layups/Dunks+7.4#14
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.9#103
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.5#284
Freethrows-0.7#243
Improvement-1.9#286
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 67.2% 67.2% 66.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 12.3 12.3 12.7
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 99.8% 99.9% 98.3%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round67.2% 67.2% 66.4%
Second Round11.6% 11.7% 10.8%
Sweet Sixteen2.4% 2.5% 1.9%
Elite Eight0.2% 0.2% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Northwestern St. (Home) - 94.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 13 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 21 - 21 - 4
Quad 36 - 37 - 7
Quad 416 - 024 - 7


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 114   South Dakota St. L 73-80 64%     0 - 1 -4.0 -2.5 -1.2
  Nov 11, 2024 5   @ Alabama L 64-72 8%     0 - 2 +14.2 +2.1 +11.7
  Nov 18, 2024 70   North Texas W 68-61 55%     1 - 2 +12.3 +6.7 +6.2
  Nov 22, 2024 135   Illinois St. W 76-68 69%     2 - 2 +9.5 +10.9 -0.3
  Nov 24, 2024 190   Longwood W 84-69 78%     3 - 2 +13.6 +9.3 +4.3
  Nov 25, 2024 90   Liberty L 58-62 52%     3 - 3 +2.2 -1.1 +2.7
  Dec 03, 2024 64   Santa Clara L 67-74 52%     3 - 4 -1.0 +0.9 -2.5
  Dec 14, 2024 35   Mississippi St. L 63-66 26%     3 - 5 +10.2 +0.5 +9.4
  Dec 22, 2024 301   @ Louisiana W 64-56 86%     4 - 5 +2.7 -3.0 +6.6
  Dec 28, 2024 351   New Orleans W 86-61 97%     5 - 5 1 - 0 +9.7 +12.9 -0.9
  Dec 30, 2024 228   SE Louisiana W 79-51 88%     6 - 5 2 - 0 +21.8 +7.2 +15.6
  Jan 04, 2025 343   @ Texas A&M - Commerce W 75-56 92%     7 - 5 3 - 0 +9.7 +0.6 +9.5
  Jan 06, 2025 293   @ Northwestern St. W 92-69 85%     8 - 5 4 - 0 +18.4 +27.3 -6.8
  Jan 11, 2025 197   Nicholls St. W 80-71 84%     9 - 5 5 - 0 +4.8 +2.2 +2.3
  Jan 13, 2025 290   @ Houston Christian W 75-59 85%     10 - 5 6 - 0 +11.4 +0.1 +11.5
  Jan 18, 2025 218   Lamar W 75-64 87%     11 - 5 7 - 0 +5.3 +8.8 -2.3
  Jan 20, 2025 270   Stephen F. Austin W 79-59 91%     12 - 5 8 - 0 +11.4 +14.4 -1.2
  Jan 25, 2025 264   @ UT Rio Grande Valley W 93-63 82%     13 - 5 9 - 0 +26.7 +22.1 +6.0
  Jan 27, 2025 186   @ TX A&M Corpus Christi W 74-73 70%     14 - 5 10 - 0 +2.2 +4.5 -2.3
  Feb 01, 2025 197   @ Nicholls St. L 63-71 71%     14 - 6 10 - 1 -7.2 -5.8 -1.8
  Feb 03, 2025 291   Incarnate Word W 67-65 93%     15 - 6 11 - 1 -7.6 -0.3 -6.8
  Feb 08, 2025 293   Northwestern St. W 74-58 94%    
  Feb 10, 2025 343   Texas A&M - Commerce W 78-57 98%    
  Feb 15, 2025 351   @ New Orleans W 82-65 94%    
  Feb 17, 2025 228   @ SE Louisiana W 73-65 75%    
  Feb 22, 2025 186   TX A&M Corpus Christi W 76-66 84%    
  Feb 24, 2025 264   UT Rio Grande Valley W 81-66 92%    
  Mar 01, 2025 218   @ Lamar W 71-64 74%    
  Mar 03, 2025 270   Stephen F. Austin W 72-57 92%    
Projected Record 22 - 7 18 - 2




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southland Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.1 1.0 5.1 18.2 39.4 36.0 99.8 1st
2nd 0.1 0.1 0.2 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.0 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
Total 0.2 1.1 5.1 18.2 39.4 36.0 Total



Southland Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1 100.0% 36.0    36.0
18-2 100.0% 39.4    39.4
17-3 100.0% 18.2    18.2
16-4 100.0% 5.1    4.5 0.6
15-5 91.8% 1.0    0.5 0.4 0.1
14-6 36.8% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
13-7
12-8
11-9
10-10
Total 99.8% 99.8 98.7 1.0 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1 36.0% 70.5% 70.5% 11.9 0.0 5.4 17.8 2.1 0.0 10.6
18-2 39.4% 67.8% 67.8% 12.4 0.7 15.0 10.3 0.7 0.0 12.7
17-3 18.2% 64.0% 64.0% 12.7 0.0 4.5 6.0 1.1 0.0 6.6
16-4 5.1% 54.0% 54.0% 13.2 0.4 1.6 0.7 0.0 2.4
15-5 1.1% 53.6% 53.6% 13.3 0.0 0.4 0.2 0.5
14-6 0.2% 0.0 0.0 0.1
13-7
12-8
11-9
10-10
9-11
8-12
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 67.2% 67.2% 0.0% 12.3 0.0 6.1 37.7 20.5 2.9 0.1 32.9 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 25.4% 100.0% 11.9 0.1 21.3 70.1 8.4 0.1
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 5.6%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 5.0%