McNeese St.
Southland
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +6.7 #87
Expected Predictive Rating +10.7 #56
Pace 66.9 #241
Improvement -2.0 #287

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #80 C+ B- A C+ C+
Defense #94 B F A+ D- C

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 42% #90 1.18 #148 +2.5 #101
2 Pt. Jumpers 19% #196 0.92 #21 +1.3 #107
Three Pointers 39% #235 0.97 #236 -2.1 #263
1st FG Attempt 1.05 #131 +1.8 #131
Freethrows 17.7 #162 76% #62 13.6 #122
Second Chance 36.2% #40 1.02 #216 0.37 #85
Turnovers 13.1% #18
Total Offense +3.9 #80

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 32% #328 1.09 #99 +4.9 #38
2 Pt. Jumpers 17% #269 0.63 #42 +2.2 #42
Three Pointers 51% #13 0.94 #102 -3.1 #301
1st FG Attempt 0.94 #65 +3.9 #66
Freethrows 20.6 #324 72% #171 14.9 #46
Second Chance 38.6% #358 1.11 #260 0.43 #351
Turnovers 23.4% #3
Total Defense +2.8 #94

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 0.8% #140 -0.2% #155
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 2.6% #143 -7.6% #62
Possession Length 16.1 #75 19.1 #359
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.26 #23 0.14 #60
Improvement +0.4 #156 -2.4 #318

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 49.3% 49.9% 42.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Average Seed 12.0 12.0 12.3
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 99.9%
Conference Champion 65.0% 66.9% 41.2%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
First Round49.3% 49.8% 42.6%
Second Round8.9% 9.2% 5.4%
Sweet Sixteen1.7% 1.7% 1.0%
Elite Eight0.2% 0.2% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: SE Louisiana (Home) - 92.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 12 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 23 - 13 - 3
Quad 37 - 310 - 5
Quad 414 - 124 - 7


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Fri, Nov 7 61 @Santa Clara L 67 - 79 30%  -5  0 - 1 +0 +1 F A+ C -2 B- B+ A+
 Fri, Nov 14 310 Louisiana W 88 - 62 95%  +18  1 - 1 +14 +17 A+ F C -1 A+ F A+
 Sun, Nov 23 70 George Washington W 92 - 86 44%  +6  2 - 1 +14 +15 C+ A+ A+ -1 A+ F A+
 Mon, Nov 24 91 Murray St. W 73 - 60 52%  +16  3 - 1 +19 -3 C F A+ +22 A+ D+ A+
 Tue, Nov 25 123 Middle Tennessee W 72 - 62 67%  -3  4 - 1 +12 +17 F A+ A+ -3 C B- A
 Mon, Dec 1 165 @Incarnate Word L 67 - 71 66%  -5  4 - 2 0 - 1 -2 -2 F A+ D -0 D- F A+
 Fri, Dec 5 288 Northwestern St. W 92 - 54 93%  +24  5 - 2 1 - 1 +28 +17 A+ C B +12 B- A- A+
 Tue, Dec 9 141 @Rhode Island W 66 - 64 60%  +2  6 - 2 +6 -2 D+ F A+ +8 D- C+ A+
 Fri, Dec 12 324 East Texas A&M W 102 - 66 96%  +26  7 - 2 2 - 1 +23 +14 A+ A F +5 B- C A+
 Mon, Dec 15 300 @Houston Christian W 78 - 68 86%  -1  8 - 2 3 - 1 +5 +15 B+ A+ A- -8 B F C
 Mon, Dec 29 1 @Michigan L 71 - 112 3%  -30  8 - 3 -11 +3 C C- A+ -8 C- F A+
 Fri, Jan 2 231 Lamar W 82 - 70 89%  +4  9 - 3 4 - 1 +5 +21 A B A+ -14 A+ F C
 Mon, Jan 5 112 Stephen F. Austin W 66 - 64 71%  -2  10 - 3 5 - 1 +3 +5 B- C- A -2 C+ F A+
 Sat, Jan 10 260 SE Louisiana W 77 - 62 93% 
 Mon, Jan 12 215 Nicholls St. W 80 - 67 89% 
 Sat, Jan 17 220 @UT Rio Grande Valley W 76 - 69 74% 
 Mon, Jan 19 183 @TX A&M Corpus Christi W 72 - 67 69% 
 Sat, Jan 24 236 New Orleans W 84 - 70 90% 
 Mon, Jan 26 260 @SE Louisiana W 74 - 65 81% 
 Sat, Jan 31 231 @Lamar W 72 - 64 76% 
 Mon, Feb 2 112 @Stephen F. Austin L 70 - 71 48% 
 Sat, Feb 7 165 Incarnate Word W 78 - 68 83% 
 Mon, Feb 9 300 Houston Christian W 79 - 62 95% 
 Sat, Feb 14 324 @East Texas A&M W 80 - 66 90% 
 Mon, Feb 16 288 @Northwestern St. W 77 - 66 84% 
 Sat, Feb 21 183 TX A&M Corpus Christi W 75 - 64 85% 
 Mon, Feb 23 220 UT Rio Grande Valley W 79 - 66 88% 
 Sat, Feb 28 236 @New Orleans W 81 - 73 76% 
 Mon, Mar 2 215 @Nicholls St. W 77 - 70 72% 
Totals 23 - 6 18 - 4 +7 +4 C+ B- A +3 B F A+




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southland Finish

0-22 1-21 2-20 3-19 4-18 5-17 6-16 7-15 8-14 9-13 10-12 11-11 12-10 13-9 14-8 15-7 16-6 17-5 18-4 19-3 20-2 21-1 22-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.4 2.3 7.9 15.2 19.3 14.4 5.5 65.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.7 2.9 6.8 8.2 5.8 2.1 0.2 26.7 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.3 1.3 2.1 1.6 0.5 0.1 5.8 3rd
4th 0.1 0.5 0.7 0.4 0.1 1.7 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.5 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 6th
7th 0.0 0.0 0.1 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 0.0 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.0 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.2 2.7 5.8 10.8 16.6 21.1 21.3 14.6 5.5 Total



Southland Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
22-0
21-1 100.0% 5.5    5.5
20-2 98.6% 14.4    13.6 0.9
19-3 90.2% 19.3    16.0 3.3 0.0
18-4 72.2% 15.2    10.5 4.5 0.2
17-5 47.6% 7.9    4.2 3.3 0.4 0.0
16-6 21.6% 2.3    0.7 1.1 0.4 0.0
15-7 7.1% 0.4    0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0
14-8 0.4% 0.0    0.0 0.0
13-9 0.0%
12-10 0.0%
11-11 0.0%
Total 65.0% 65.0 50.6 13.2 1.1 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
22-0
21-1 5.5% 67.5% 66.5% 1.0% 10.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 2.5 0.4 1.8 3.0%
20-2 14.6% 60.4% 60.3% 0.1% 11.6 0.0 0.0 3.6 4.9 0.2 5.8 0.2%
19-3 21.3% 55.3% 55.3% 11.9 2.2 8.5 1.1 0.0 9.5
18-4 21.1% 50.1% 50.1% 12.2 0.6 7.4 2.4 0.1 10.5
17-5 16.6% 44.9% 44.9% 12.4 0.1 4.4 2.8 0.2 9.1
16-6 10.8% 40.2% 40.2% 12.6 0.0 2.1 2.0 0.2 6.4
15-7 5.8% 31.1% 31.1% 12.8 0.6 1.0 0.2 0.0 4.0
14-8 2.7% 24.0% 24.0% 12.9 0.2 0.4 0.1 2.0
13-9 1.2% 15.2% 15.2% 12.9 0.0 0.1 0.0 1.0
12-10 0.4% 14.1% 14.1% 13.4 0.0 0.0 0.3
11-11 0.1% 4.3% 4.3% 15.0 0.0 0.1
10-12 0.0% 0.0
9-13 0.0% 0.0
8-14
7-15 0.0% 0.0
6-16
5-17
4-18
3-19
2-20
1-21
0-22
Total 100% 49.3% 49.3% 0.1% 12.0 50.7 0.1%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 3.7% 100.0% 10.7 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.8 1.5 6.3 14.5 66.2 10.4
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 1.1% 4.4% 11.1 4.0 0.4
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.7% 0.7% 11.0 0.7