McNeese St.
Southland
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +6.6 #85
Expected Predictive Rating +9.3 #65
Pace 65.4 #265
Improvement -2.5 #287

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #78 C C+ A- C+ C+
Defense #101 C+ D- A+ D- C

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 43% #54 1.19 #137 +3.4 #69
2 Pt. Jumpers 20% #179 0.84 #59 +0.8 #127
Three Pointers 36% #283 0.94 #279 -3.9 #311
1st FG Attempt 1.03 #159 +0.4 #159
Freethrows 0.30 #193 77% #27 0.23 #133
Second Chance 36.1% #38 0.97 #261 0.35 #99
Turnovers 13.2% #20
Total Offense +4.3 #78

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 33% #323 1.12 #128 +4.0 #54
2 Pt. Jumpers 17% #284 0.67 #44 +2.0 #47
Three Pointers 50% #11 1.00 #159 -4.3 #334
1st FG Attempt 0.98 #122 +1.7 #122
Freethrows 0.38 #345 73% #222 0.27 #346
Second Chance 35.6% #336 1.09 #277 0.39 #334
Turnovers 23.7% #2
Total Defense +2.3 #101

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 0.7% #142 0.0% #170
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 0.1% #171 -3.4% #109
Possession Length 16.5 #99 19.0 #356
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.25 #22 0.14 #65
Improvement -0.5 #213 -2.0 #291

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 51.8% 55.8% 48.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.2% 0.4% 0.0%
Average Seed 11.9 11.8 12.1
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 51.0% 79.5% 25.6%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
First Round51.8% 55.8% 48.2%
Second Round8.0% 9.0% 7.0%
Sweet Sixteen1.2% 1.5% 0.9%
Elite Eight0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Stephen F. Austin (Away) - 47.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 12 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 23 - 13 - 3
Quad 36 - 210 - 5
Quad 415 - 225 - 6


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Fri, Nov 7 46 @Santa Clara L 67 - 79 22% -5  0 - 1 +3 +3 F A+ C+ -1 B- B- A+
 Fri, Nov 14 303 Louisiana W 88 - 62 94% +18  1 - 1 +15 +16 A+ F C+ +0 A+ F A+
 Sun, Nov 23 79 George Washington W 92 - 86 48% +6  2 - 1 +13 +16 C+ A+ A+ -3 B+ F A+
 Mon, Nov 24 106 Murray St. W 73 - 60 59% +16  3 - 1 +17 -5 D+ F A+ +22 A+ C- A+
 Tue, Nov 25 154 Middle Tennessee W 72 - 62 74% -3  4 - 1 +10 +17 F A+ A -5 D+ B B+
 Mon, Dec 1 248 @Incarnate Word L 67 - 71 80% -5  4 - 2 0 - 1 -6 -3 D C+ D -3 F F A+
 Fri, Dec 5 270 Northwestern St. W 92 - 54 92% +24  5 - 2 1 - 1 +29 +18 A+ C- B +13 B- A- A+
 Tue, Dec 9 119 @Rhode Island W 66 - 64 53% +2  6 - 2 +8 -1 C- F A+ +9 C- C A+
 Fri, Dec 12 311 East Texas A&M W 102 - 66 95% +26  7 - 2 2 - 1 +24 +15 A+ B+ D +5 C+ C+ A+
 Mon, Dec 15 297 @Houston Christian W 78 - 68 86% -1  8 - 2 3 - 1 +5 +13 C+ A+ A- -7 B F D+
 Mon, Dec 29 1 @Michigan L 71 - 112 3% -30  8 - 3 -13 +2 D+ C- A+ -8 D+ F B+
 Fri, Jan 2 197 Lamar W 82 - 70 87% +4  9 - 3 4 - 1 +7 +21 A- B+ A+ -12 A+ F C-
 Mon, Jan 5 105 Stephen F. Austin W 66 - 64 70% -2  10 - 3 5 - 1 +3 +5 B D- A -2 B- F A+
 Sat, Jan 10 271 SE Louisiana W 73 - 61 92% +7  11 - 3 6 - 1 +3 +7 B- D- A- -3 C+ F A+
 Mon, Jan 12 249 Nicholls St. W 94 - 68 91% +15  12 - 3 7 - 1 +18 +12 C+ B- A+ +4 D+ A- A+
 Sat, Jan 17 181 @UT Rio Grande Valley L 76 - 79 69% -10  12 - 4 7 - 2 -2 +11 D+ C A+ -13 F F B
 Mon, Jan 19 196 @TX A&M Corpus Christi W 69 - 53 72% +6  13 - 4 8 - 2 +17 +13 D+ A+ B- +7 C A+ B
 Sat, Jan 24 218 New Orleans W 82 - 63 88% +9  14 - 4 9 - 2 +13 +4 D+ C+ C +9 C B- A+
 Tue, Jan 27 271 @SE Louisiana W 76 - 66 82% +8  15 - 4 10 - 2 +7 +9 B- C- B -2 D+ F A+
 Sat, Jan 31 197 @Lamar W 64 - 63 72% +3  16 - 4 11 - 2 +2 +7 F+ C A+ -5 C C C+
 Mon, Feb 2 105 @Stephen F. Austin L 70 - 71 47%
 Sat, Feb 7 248 Incarnate Word W 80 - 65 92%
 Mon, Feb 9 297 Houston Christian W 81 - 63 95%
 Sat, Feb 14 311 @East Texas A&M W 78 - 65 89%
 Mon, Feb 16 270 @Northwestern St. W 77 - 67 82%
 Sat, Feb 21 196 TX A&M Corpus Christi W 75 - 63 87%
 Mon, Feb 23 181 UT Rio Grande Valley W 78 - 67 86%
 Sat, Feb 28 218 @New Orleans W 81 - 74 74%
 Mon, Mar 2 249 @Nicholls St. W 78 - 69 79%
Totals 23 - 6 18 - 4 +7 +4 C C+ A- +2 C+ D- A+




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southland Finish

0-22 1-21 2-20 3-19 4-18 5-17 6-16 7-15 8-14 9-13 10-12 11-11 12-10 13-9 14-8 15-7 16-6 17-5 18-4 19-3 20-2 21-1 22-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 2.0 10.1 22.9 15.9 51.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 1.4 5.2 14.0 18.5 9.4 48.7 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 3rd
4th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
Total 0.0 0.3 1.6 5.4 16.0 28.7 32.2 15.9 Total



Southland Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
22-0
21-1
20-2 100.0% 15.9    13.8 2.1
19-3 70.9% 22.9    13.6 9.3
18-4 35.3% 10.1    4.2 5.9
17-5 12.4% 2.0    0.6 1.3 0.0
16-6 3.7% 0.2    0.0 0.2 0.0
15-7 1.6% 0.0    0.0 0.0
14-8 0.0%
13-9 0.0%
12-10
11-11
Total 51.0% 51.0 32.2 18.8 0.1



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
22-0
21-1
20-2 15.9% 58.7% 58.3% 0.4% 11.4 0.1 5.2 4.0 0.1 6.6 1.0%
19-3 32.2% 55.2% 55.1% 0.1% 11.9 3.6 13.2 1.0 14.4 0.2%
18-4 28.7% 50.9% 50.9% 12.1 1.1 11.3 2.2 0.0 14.1
17-5 16.0% 44.9% 44.9% 12.2 0.2 5.1 1.8 0.0 8.8
16-6 5.4% 42.5% 42.5% 12.4 0.0 1.4 0.8 0.0 3.1
15-7 1.6% 35.7% 35.7% 12.5 0.3 0.3 0.0 1.0
14-8 0.3% 29.6% 29.6% 12.9 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.2
13-9 0.0% 0.0 0.0
12-10
11-11
10-12
9-13
8-14
7-15
6-16
5-17
4-18
3-19
2-20
1-21
0-22
Total 100% 51.8% 51.7% 0.1% 11.9 48.2 0.2%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 9.2% 100.0% 11.4 1.2 55.4 42.8 0.5
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 4.0% 0.8% 11.3 0.5 0.3
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 2.7% 1.3% 11.0 1.3