NC Central
Mid-Eastern
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-7.3#295
Expected Predictive Rating-9.0#313
Pace66.4#229
Improvement+1.0#145

Offense
Total Offense-1.8#223
First Shot-3.4#277
After Offensive Rebound+1.6#96
Layup/Dunks-0.4#199
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.1#246
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.4#254
Freethrows+0.6#142
Improvement+1.5#99

Defense
Total Defense-5.6#331
First Shot-3.5#285
After Offensive Rebounds-2.1#326
Layups/Dunks-4.9#336
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.8#110
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.3#86
Freethrows-1.7#296
Improvement-0.6#215
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 9.9% 11.9% 8.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 15.9 16.0
.500 or above 7.0% 12.5% 2.6%
.500 or above in Conference 76.4% 91.7% 64.3%
Conference Champion 3.3% 6.1% 1.2%
Last Place in Conference 0.3% 0.1% 0.4%
First Four8.8% 9.8% 8.0%
First Round5.5% 6.8% 4.4%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Howard (Away) - 44.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 10 - 3
Quad 33 - 33 - 6
Quad 49 - 1111 - 17


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 81   @ George Mason L 58-75 6%     0 - 1 -7.2 -4.2 -3.5
  Nov 08, 2024 236   Gardner-Webb L 82-88 48%     0 - 2 -12.9 +2.2 -14.8
  Nov 12, 2024 107   @ High Point L 60-76 10%     0 - 3 -9.5 -5.3 -6.8
  Nov 15, 2024 254   Georgia Southern L 75-80 42%     0 - 4 -10.4 -6.1 -3.8
  Nov 16, 2024 208   William & Mary W 78-76 32%     1 - 4 -0.4 -0.4 +0.0
  Nov 17, 2024 205   @ Winthrop L 75-77 23%     1 - 5 -1.7 +1.6 -3.3
  Nov 22, 2024 278   @ Georgia St. L 79-93 37%     1 - 6 -18.0 +8.0 -27.0
  Dec 05, 2024 204   Radford L 67-70 40%     1 - 7 -7.6 -11.0 +3.4
  Dec 07, 2024 236   @ Gardner-Webb W 78-77 30%     2 - 7 -0.9 +2.6 -3.5
  Dec 10, 2024 39   @ West Virginia L 45-79 3%     2 - 8 -19.6 -12.7 -11.1
  Dec 14, 2024 190   @ Longwood W 77-70 21%     3 - 8 +8.1 +4.7 +3.5
  Dec 20, 2024 190   Longwood L 67-82 37%     3 - 9 -18.9 -7.4 -11.8
  Dec 28, 2024 333   @ N.C. A&T L 72-85 54%     3 - 10 -21.4 -2.0 -20.1
  Jan 04, 2025 362   @ Coppin St. L 61-63 77%     3 - 11 0 - 1 -17.3 -15.5 -1.7
  Jan 07, 2025 329   @ Morgan St. L 98-102 2OT 53%     3 - 12 0 - 2 -12.1 -1.0 -10.3
  Jan 11, 2025 361   Maryland Eastern Shore W 88-69 86%     4 - 12 1 - 2 -0.2 +9.4 -8.9
  Jan 13, 2025 314   Delaware St. W 75-72 65%     5 - 12 2 - 2 -8.3 +0.0 -8.2
  Jan 25, 2025 229   South Carolina St. W 82-77 46%     6 - 12 3 - 2 -1.2 +3.2 -4.7
  Feb 03, 2025 185   @ Norfolk St. L 78-81 21%     6 - 13 3 - 3 -1.8 +13.0 -15.2
  Feb 08, 2025 310   @ Howard L 78-79 44%    
  Feb 15, 2025 362   Coppin St. W 76-63 90%    
  Feb 17, 2025 329   Morgan St. W 82-76 73%    
  Feb 22, 2025 361   @ Maryland Eastern Shore W 75-68 72%    
  Feb 24, 2025 314   @ Delaware St. L 74-75 44%    
  Mar 01, 2025 310   Howard W 80-76 65%    
  Mar 03, 2025 185   Norfolk St. L 70-74 38%    
  Mar 06, 2025 229   @ South Carolina St. L 69-75 27%    
Projected Record 11 - 16 8 - 6




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mid-Eastern Finish

0-14 1-13 2-12 3-11 4-10 5-9 6-8 7-7 8-6 9-5 10-4 11-3 12-2 13-1 14-0 Total
1st 0.5 1.9 0.9 3.3 1st
2nd 0.0 1.9 9.4 4.4 0.2 15.9 2nd
3rd 0.0 1.6 13.8 7.5 0.2 23.2 3rd
4th 0.9 11.0 9.5 0.2 21.6 4th
5th 0.5 7.5 10.9 0.6 19.6 5th
6th 0.9 5.1 7.5 1.8 15.3 6th
7th 0.1 0.5 0.4 0.1 1.1 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 8th
Total 0.1 1.4 6.1 16.0 25.3 25.9 17.7 6.5 1.1 Total



Mid-Eastern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
14-0
13-1
12-2
11-3 81.3% 0.9    0.5 0.4
10-4 29.7% 1.9    0.3 1.1 0.6
9-5 2.9% 0.5    0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1
8-6 0.0%
7-7 0.0%
Total 3.3% 3.3 0.8 1.5 0.8 0.2 0.1



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
14-0
13-1
12-2
11-3 1.1% 28.0% 28.0% 15.3 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.8
10-4 6.5% 19.0% 19.0% 16.0 0.1 1.2 5.3
9-5 17.7% 16.1% 16.1% 16.0 0.0 2.8 14.8
8-6 25.9% 9.3% 9.3% 16.0 2.4 23.5
7-7 25.3% 6.8% 6.8% 16.0 1.7 23.6
6-8 16.0% 6.6% 6.6% 16.0 1.1 14.9
5-9 6.1% 4.3% 4.3% 16.0 0.3 5.8
4-10 1.4% 1.4% 1.4% 16.0 0.0 1.4
3-11 0.1% 0.1
2-12
1-13
0-14
Total 100% 9.9% 9.9% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 0.3 9.6 90.1 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.3% 100.0% 15.3 3.3 66.7 30.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.3%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.3%