NC Central
Mid-Eastern
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -13.9 352
Results Rating -13.4 346
Pace 66.7 234
Improvement -1.3 233

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense D 328 D- D+ D+ C C-
Defense F+ 352 F+ D C+ C D+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 42% 88 D 52% 315 -0.5 202
2 Pt. Jumpers 58% 22 D+ 34% 289 +0.8 133
Three Pointers 33% 334 D 31% 289 -5.4 337
Shot Selection/Accuracy C- -0.3 233 D- -4.8 332
1st FG Attempt D- 0.92 329
Second Chance C- 28.2% 243 D+ 0.97 274 D+ 0.27 261
Turnovers D+ 18.0% 268
Freethrows C 0.30 199 C+ 73% 156 C 0.22 179
Total Offense D -6.4 328

Assists Blocks (Opponents')
Close Shots B- 53% 103 F 16.2% 359
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots B+ 39% 29 B 3.3% 65
Three Pointers D 78% 315 C+ 0.7% 140
Total C 56% 166 F+ 7.9% 347

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 37% 246 F+ 67% 358 +2.1 254
2 Pt. Jumpers 15% 329 D+ 41% 289 -1.5 67
Three Pointers 48% 20 D- 38% 335 +6.5 357
Shot Selection/Accuracy D+ +0.5 265 F +6.4 360
1st FG Attempt F+ 1.16 360
Second Chance F 37.1% 358 B- 0.97 96 D 0.36 303
Turnovers C+ 17.4% 142
Freethrows C 0.30 188 C- 73% 234 C 0.22 198
Total Defense F+ -7.5 352

Assists Blocks
Close Shots D+ 53% 284 C 10.5% 190
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots D+ 31% 285 C 4.6% 189
Three Pointers D 88% 305 C+ 1.3% 96
Total D- 63% 331 C- 5.1% 207

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 17.9 241 17.3 180
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.18 136 0.25 362
Improvement +1.3 #120 -2.6 #304

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Prediction Sensitivity
Pessimistic
5th Percentile 		Expected
50th Percentile 		Optimistic
95th Percentile
Predictive Rating Rank 357 351 337
Results Rating Rank 356 345 327
Conference Record 6 - 8 8 - 6 9 - 5
Conference Finish 5 4 2
NCAA Tourney Seed None None None
NCAA Tourney Finish None None None

NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 4% 4% 3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 0% 0% 0%
.500 or above in Conference 89% 100% 77%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0%
First Four4% 4% 3%
First Round1% 1% 1%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Next Game: Delaware St. (Away) - 50.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 40 - 4
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 4
Quad 20 - 10 - 6
Quad 30 - 40 - 9
Quad 48 - 98 - 18


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 24 @North Carolina St. L 65 - 114 1% -28  0% 0 - 1 F -30 D -5 C C- F+ F -23 F F C
 Fri, Nov 7 22 @Virginia L 62 - 81 0% -19  0% 0 - 2 C +1 B- +4 D C+ B+ D -5 C- D- A-
 Sun, Nov 9 173 @Appalachian St. L 54 - 76 7% -16  0% 0 - 3 F -20 F -14 F D- D- D- -8 B+ F D-
 Fri, Nov 14 27 @North Carolina L 53 - 97 1% -20  0% 0 - 4 F -26 F -15 F D- B- F -11 D+ F B-
 Sat, Nov 22 87 @Dayton L 55 - 74 2% -19  2% 0 - 5 D -9 F -11 F A+ F C+ +0 B- C+ F
 Tue, Nov 25 297 @South Carolina Upstate L 67 - 82 20% -10  3% 0 - 6 F -20 D- -8 F C B F -13 F C- A
 Wed, Dec 3 201 @James Madison L 62 - 67 9% -4  12% 0 - 7 C- -4 D- -8 F C+ F B- +3 A- B- D+
 Sat, Dec 6 273 N.C. A&T L 54 - 69 33% +1  57% 0 - 8 F -24 F -28 F F D B +4 B- D+ A+
 Tue, Dec 9 25 @Kentucky L 67 - 103 1% -19  0% 0 - 9 F+ -17 C- -1 C C- C- F -15 F C D
 Sat, Dec 20 262 Longwood L 72 - 74 31% -2  24% 0 - 10 D -11 D- -7 F D- B- D+ -3 C- F A
 Mon, Dec 29 115 @Penn St. L 67 - 90 4% -8  23% 0 - 11 F+ -17 D- -6 C+ A+ F F -11 F A+ B-
 Sat, Jan 3 302 Norfolk St. W 69 - 67 40% +3  78% 1 - 11 1 - 0 D -9 D- -8 D F D C -1 C+ B D+
 Sat, Jan 10 363 @Coppin St. W 88 - 77 56% -3  35% 2 - 11 2 - 0 C- -4 A +14 D+ A B+ F -18 F B D-
 Mon, Jan 12 350 @Morgan St. W 89 - 78 37% +4  79% 3 - 11 3 - 0 C +0 A- +10 A+ F B F+ -9 F B+ D
 Sat, Jan 17 202 Howard L 69 - 83 21% -5  23% 3 - 12 3 - 1 F -19 D -4 B- F C- F -15 D F D+
 Mon, Feb 2 349 Maryland Eastern Shore W 65 - 63 60% +4  89% 4 - 12 4 - 1 D- -14 D- -8 A F D D- -7 F F A+
 Sat, Feb 7 302 @Norfolk St. L 68 - 75 21% -3  18% 4 - 13 4 - 2 D- -12 F -11 D+ F F C- -2 D- F+ A+
 Mon, Feb 9 361 Delaware St. W 72 - 63 73% +0  50% 5 - 13 5 - 2 D -11 B- +5 C C+ A+ F -15 F F A-
 Sat, Feb 14 363 Coppin St. L 56 - 58 76% +2  69% 5 - 14 5 - 3 F -23 F -20 F D+ B D+ -3 D+ B+ F
 Mon, Feb 16 350 Morgan St. W 80 - 76 60% +11  90% 6 - 14 6 - 3 D- -13 D- -7 D B+ F D -5 D+ C+ C+
 Wed, Feb 18 357 @South Carolina St. L 72 - 85 44% -5  6% 6 - 15 6 - 4 F -25 D -4 C- F D+ F -22 F A F
 Sat, Feb 21 202 @Howard L 67 - 100 9% -17  0% 6 - 16 6 - 5 F -32 D -6 F A+ C F -26 F F D
 Sat, Feb 28 361 @Delaware St. W 69 - 68 51%
 Mon, Mar 2 349 @Maryland Eastern Shore L 65 - 68 37%
 Thu, Mar 5 357 South Carolina St. W 76 - 71 66%
Totals 8 - 17 8 - 6 -14 D -6 F D- C- F+ -7 D C+ C



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings D D D+ D D- 42% 58% 33% C- D- C- D+ D+ D+ C C+ C F+ F+ D+ D- F 37% 15% 48% D+ F+ F B- D C+ C C- C
0.99 52% 34% 31% -5 0 0.92 28% 1.0 .27 18% .30 73% .22 1.19 67% 41% 38% +6 +1 1.16 37% 1.0 .36 17% .30 73% .22
Nov
3		 North Carolina St. D B+ D+ F+ C 37% 21% 42% D+ C D A- C- F+ A+ D A+ F F A+ F F 26% 9% 64% C+ F F F+ F C F A- F
0.89 63% 33% 28% -3 0 0.95 21% 1.1 .24 25% .51 64% .33 1.57 93% 20% 44% +17 +1 1.38 45% 1.4 .65 12% .47 70% .33
Nov
7		 Virginia B- F F A+ D- 43% 29% 29% B- D A F C+ B+ A+ A A+ D F A+ D D+ 22% 15% 63% A C- F B D- A- F+ A+ C+
0.99 33% 21% 43% -12 -1 0.78 36% 0.7 .25 14% .41 82% .33 1.29 80% 29% 38% +7 0 1.15 53% 1.0 .53 19% .37 58% .22
Nov
9		 Appalachian St. F F F F+ F 44% 13% 44% B+ F F B- D- D- A+ A+ A+ D- C- A- A+ B+ 33% 15% 52% C B+ D F F D- F F F
0.84 38% 17% 29% -15 +1 0.75 19% 1.0 .19 17% .38 90% .34 1.18 60% 29% 25% -8 0 0.87 33% 1.6 .55 12% .52 72% .37
Nov
14		 North Carolina F F F D+ F 31% 28% 41% C F C+ F D- B- A+ C A+ F F D+ C- D+ 33% 15% 52% C D+ F F F B- F D- F
0.76 24% 20% 32% -17 -1 0.65 26% 0.5 .13 13% .33 70% .23 1.38 75% 43% 36% +8 0 1.19 43% 1.5 .64 14% .58 74% .43
Nov
22		 Dayton F C- F F F 38% 38% 24% D- F D+ A+ A+ F D+ A+ C+ C+ F+ D A C+ 31% 15% 54% B+ B- D A C+ F A A+ A+
0.83 53% 12% 27% -14 -2 0.69 26% 1.9 .50 27% .27 85% .23 1.12 71% 38% 28% -1 0 1.00 33% 1.0 .33 11% .32 58% .19
Nov
25		 South Carolina Upstate D- F F C+ F 51% 20% 29% C+ F B+ F C B A+ B A+ F F A- F F 48% 16% 36% F+ F F A C- A F D F
0.97 36% 20% 36% -14 +1 0.76 37% 0.9 .35 13% .54 75% .40 1.19 71% 29% 50% +14 +1 1.32 39% 0.8 .29 23% .49 73% .36
Dec
3		 James Madison D- F F D- F 42% 17% 42% B- F D+ A C+ F F+ C+ D- B- A+ A C+ A 38% 10% 53% D A- D+ A B- D+ F C+ F
0.97 45% 25% 30% -10 +1 0.83 27% 1.2 .33 17% .28 73% .21 1.05 40% 25% 33% -9 +1 0.88 32% 0.8 .26 16% .60 69% .41
Dec
6		 N.C. A&T F F F F F 46% 21% 33% C+ F D- F F D A+ B A+ B B- D- A+ B 38% 23% 40% D B- F+ B- D+ A+ F B F
0.75 45% 20% 13% -20 +1 0.63 21% 0.4 .09 15% .49 73% .36 0.96 53% 44% 25% -6 0 0.90 36% 1.0 .36 29% .69 71% .49
Dec
9		 Kentucky C- B D- D C+ 35% 33% 33% D+ C D- A C- C- C B C+ F F F D- F 40% 11% 49% D- F A+ F C D A+ F B+
0.93 61% 29% 29% -4 -2 0.90 19% 1.0 .19 18% .29 76% .22 1.43 87% 50% 39% +17 +1 1.39 27% 1.6 .42 13% .22 93% .21
Dec
20		 Longwood D- A+ F F F 40% 23% 36% D F D- D+ D- B- A+ A+ A+ D+ D- F A+ C- 38% 18% 44% D C- F C F A F B- F
1.02 84% 27% 12% -4 0 0.94 23% 0.9 .19 17% .51 80% .41 1.04 65% 50% 25% -1 0 1.00 44% 0.9 .42 25% .45 71% .32
Dec
29		 Penn St. D- A+ C D+ B- 36% 30% 34% D- C+ A+ A+ A+ F F+ F F F F F F F 31% 10% 60% C- F B- A+ A+ B- A+ D+ A
0.98 75% 38% 33% +6 -1 1.11 42% 1.7 .71 34% .15 57% .09 1.32 81% 60% 45% +19 +1 1.42 28% 0.8 .21 16% .23 77% .17
Jan
3		 Norfolk St. D- B F F D- 50% 14% 36% C+ D A+ F F D A D B+ C B- F A+ C+ 43% 26% 32% D+ C+ F A+ B D+ D+ C+ C-
1.03 68% 29% 22% -3 +2 1.00 45% 0.3 .14 19% .46 68% .31 1.00 50% 50% 27% -4 0 0.94 40% 0.6 .24 18% .36 65% .24
Jan
10		 Coppin St. A F F+ A+ C 27% 32% 41% F D+ D- A+ A B+ A+ B- A+ F C F F F 27% 38% 35% A+ F C A B D- A F+ B+
1.35 45% 31% 53% +6 -2 1.10 30% 1.9 .56 14% .64 78% .50 1.18 54% 44% 65% +18 -3 1.31 29% 0.8 .21 20% .23 75% .17
Jan
12		 Morgan St. A- B+ A+ A+ A+ 64% 20% 16% C+ A+ F F F B A+ B+ A+ F+ F A+ F F 33% 27% 40% C- F D A+ B+ D F B F
1.30 68% 67% 57% +18 +2 1.41 17% 0.8 .13 13% .55 76% .42 1.14 73% 25% 39% +5 -1 1.09 33% 0.5 .17 16% .57 70% .40
Jan
17		 Howard D D- A+ C+ B- 41% 12% 47% C+ B- D+ F F C- D- F F F F F A+ D+ 48% 12% 40% D- D F F+ F D+ A- C+ A-
1.01 50% 67% 35% +1 +1 1.06 30% 0.7 .22 20% .27 60% .16 1.21 64% 50% 24% -2 +2 1.02 46% 1.2 .57 19% .27 73% .20
Feb
2		 Maryland Eastern Shore D- A+ A+ B A+ 43% 14% 43% B- A D- F F D D+ F F+ D- A+ C F F 44% 21% 36% D- F F F F A+ C B+ C+
1.05 74% 50% 37% +10 +1 1.25 27% 0.1 .03 18% .31 63% .20 1.02 41% 38% 57% +5 0 1.13 46% 1.3 .58 36% .23 67% .15
Feb
7		 Norfolk St. F F A+ D+ C- 45% 24% 31% D D+ F F F F F A F C- C- F B D+ 55% 7% 38% F D- F C F+ A+ F F F
0.95 48% 67% 31% +1 0 1.04 21% 0.8 .18 22% .25 79% .20 1.05 57% 67% 31% 0 +3 1.07 39% 1.0 .39 28% .52 78% .41
Feb
9		 Delaware St. B- C A- C C 56% 24% 20% C- C A- D- C+ A+ C B+ C+ F F F C+ F 27% 41% 32% A- F F F F A- D D- D-
1.23 64% 45% 33% +5 +1 1.13 40% 1.0 .40 12% .33 76% .25 1.08 64% 47% 31% +4 -4 1.02 41% 1.0 .41 24% .34 73% .25
Feb
14		 Coppin St. F F F F F 37% 22% 41% D F C D- D+ B F F F D+ D+ F A+ C 47% 8% 45% F D+ C A+ B+ F A+ A+ A+
0.90 37% 27% 29% -14 0 0.75 35% 1.0 .35 14% .17 44% .07 0.93 58% 50% 22% -7 +2 0.92 28% 0.7 .19 14% .22 50% .11
Feb
16		 Morgan St. D- F C+ A+ D 48% 22% 30% D D C- A+ B+ F C A B D B+ A+ F C- 41% 21% 38% F D+ F A+ C+ C+ D- C D
1.10 41% 40% 50% 0 +1 1.02 33% 1.5 .52 22% .44 80% .35 1.04 48% 17% 43% -4 0 0.95 47% 0.5 .23 19% .39 74% .29
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Feb
18		 South Carolina St. D D A- A- C 39% 22% 39% F+ C- D- F F D+ B F D+ F F C- F F 34% 26% 40% F+ F B A+ A F C+ F F+
1.08 56% 50% 39% +4 0 1.11 31% 1.0 .31 18% .44 58% .26 1.27 76% 38% 50% +16 -1 1.32 25% 0.7 .17 13% .29 88% .26
Feb
21		 Howard D D+ D F F 55% 20% 25% C+ F C+ A+ A+ C C F D- F F A+ F F 48% 12% 40% D- F F D F D C- C- C-
0.94 54% 30% 8% -14 +1 0.76 34% 1.9 .66 20% .33 58% .19 1.40 79% 17% 55% +20 +2 1.46 43% 1.2 .50 18% .34 75% .26



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mid-Eastern Finish

0-14 1-13 2-12 3-11 4-10 5-9 6-8 7-7 8-6 9-5 10-4 11-3 12-2 13-1 14-0 Total
1st 0.2 0.2 1st
2nd 3.0 8.7 11.7 2nd
3rd 3.4 22.4 4.6 30.4 3rd
4th 0.5 25.9 12.9 39.4 4th
5th 6.1 7.4 0.1 13.7 5th
6th 4.3 0.0 4.3 6th
7th 0.3 0.3 7th
8th 8th
Total 11.3 36.7 38.4 13.5 Total



Mid-Eastern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
14-0
13-1
12-2
11-3
10-4
9-5 1.7% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1
8-6 0.0%
7-7 0.0%
Total 0.2% 0.2 0.0 0.1 0.1



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
14-0
13-1
12-2
11-3
10-4
9-5 13.5% 5.9% 5.9% 16.0 0.8 12.7
8-6 38.4% 4.4% 4.4% 16.0 1.7 36.8
7-7 36.7% 2.8% 2.8% 16.0 1.0 35.7
6-8 11.3% 2.3% 2.3% 16.0 0.3 11.1
5-9
4-10
3-11
2-12
1-13
0-14
Total 100% 3.8% 3.8% 0.0% 16.0 96.2 0.0%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.8% 100.0% 16.0 100.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 2.8%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 4.7%
Lose Out 6.9%