NC Central
Mid-Eastern
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-6.2#274
Expected Predictive Rating-6.9#280
Pace66.0#255
Improvement+1.0#120

Offense
Total Offense-1.9#224
First Shot-3.3#274
After Offensive Rebound+1.4#103
Layup/Dunks-0.8#214
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.7#203
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.1#240
Freethrows+0.2#166
Improvement-0.4#209

Defense
Total Defense-4.3#309
First Shot-2.6#261
After Offensive Rebounds-1.7#310
Layups/Dunks-5.3#344
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.4#157
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.7#40
Freethrows-1.4#282
Improvement+1.4#81
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 13.6% 15.6% 11.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.9 15.8 15.9
.500 or above 31.3% 42.4% 20.3%
.500 or above in Conference 80.2% 83.6% 76.8%
Conference Champion 15.4% 17.8% 13.1%
Last Place in Conference 1.8% 1.3% 2.3%
First Four9.4% 9.5% 9.3%
First Round9.0% 10.9% 7.2%
Second Round0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: N.C. A&T (Away) - 49.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 20 - 20 - 3
Quad 32 - 42 - 7
Quad 411 - 913 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 82   @ George Mason L 58-75 7%     0 - 1 -6.9 -5.7 -1.7
  Nov 08, 2024 230   Gardner-Webb L 82-88 52%     0 - 2 -12.7 +1.6 -14.0
  Nov 12, 2024 123   @ High Point L 60-76 14%     0 - 3 -10.7 -4.6 -8.6
  Nov 15, 2024 242   Georgia Southern L 75-80 43%     0 - 4 -9.5 -5.3 -3.9
  Nov 16, 2024 221   William & Mary W 78-76 39%     1 - 4 -1.3 -2.0 +0.7
  Nov 17, 2024 190   @ Winthrop L 75-77 23%     1 - 5 -0.5 +3.4 -4.0
  Nov 22, 2024 272   @ Georgia St. L 79-93 37%     1 - 6 -17.0 +11.1 -29.1
  Dec 05, 2024 213   Radford L 67-70 47%     1 - 7 -8.6 -10.1 +1.5
  Dec 07, 2024 230   @ Gardner-Webb W 78-77 29%     2 - 7 +0.3 +2.5 -2.2
  Dec 10, 2024 39   @ West Virginia L 45-79 4%     2 - 8 -19.3 -13.7 -9.8
  Dec 14, 2024 172   @ Longwood W 77-70 21%     3 - 8 +9.4 +7.5 +2.0
  Dec 20, 2024 172   Longwood L 67-82 40%     3 - 9 -18.6 -5.1 -13.9
  Dec 28, 2024 324   @ N.C. A&T L 77-78 50%    
  Jan 04, 2025 362   @ Coppin St. W 71-63 77%    
  Jan 06, 2025 350   @ Morgan St. W 78-75 61%    
  Jan 11, 2025 358   Maryland Eastern Shore W 77-66 84%    
  Jan 13, 2025 327   Delaware St. W 76-70 72%    
  Jan 25, 2025 253   South Carolina St. W 72-70 57%    
  Feb 01, 2025 255   @ Howard L 72-76 35%    
  Feb 03, 2025 184   @ Norfolk St. L 67-75 23%    
  Feb 15, 2025 362   Coppin St. W 74-60 90%    
  Feb 17, 2025 350   Morgan St. W 81-72 79%    
  Feb 22, 2025 358   @ Maryland Eastern Shore W 74-69 67%    
  Feb 24, 2025 327   @ Delaware St. W 73-72 50%    
  Mar 01, 2025 255   Howard W 75-73 57%    
  Mar 03, 2025 184   Norfolk St. L 70-72 43%    
  Mar 06, 2025 253   @ South Carolina St. L 69-73 35%    
Projected Record 12 - 15 8 - 6




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mid-Eastern Finish

0-14 1-13 2-12 3-11 4-10 5-9 6-8 7-7 8-6 9-5 10-4 11-3 12-2 13-1 14-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.6 3.5 5.7 3.9 1.5 0.2 15.4 1st
2nd 0.0 1.4 7.1 8.8 3.2 0.4 21.0 2nd
3rd 0.1 2.2 8.4 8.8 2.0 0.1 21.7 3rd
4th 0.1 2.4 8.2 7.2 1.3 0.0 19.2 4th
5th 0.1 1.9 5.7 4.4 0.7 0.0 12.9 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 1.1 3.1 2.0 0.3 6.5 6th
7th 0.0 0.0 0.5 1.2 0.7 0.1 0.0 2.5 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.7 8th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.0 2.5 5.8 10.2 15.1 17.8 17.9 14.4 9.0 4.3 1.5 0.2 Total



Mid-Eastern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
14-0 100.0% 0.2    0.2
13-1 100.0% 1.5    1.5 0.0
12-2 91.0% 3.9    3.1 0.8 0.0
11-3 63.4% 5.7    3.0 2.4 0.4 0.0
10-4 24.2% 3.5    0.7 1.7 0.9 0.1
9-5 3.6% 0.6    0.0 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.0
8-6 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
7-7 0.0%
Total 15.4% 15.4 8.4 5.1 1.6 0.3 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
14-0 0.2% 43.6% 43.6% 13.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
13-1 1.5% 33.9% 33.9% 15.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.1 1.0
12-2 4.3% 29.8% 29.8% 15.6 0.0 0.5 0.8 3.0
11-3 9.0% 26.8% 26.8% 15.8 0.0 0.4 2.0 6.6
10-4 14.4% 19.4% 19.4% 16.0 0.1 2.7 11.6
9-5 17.9% 14.9% 14.9% 16.0 0.0 2.6 15.3
8-6 17.8% 10.7% 10.7% 16.0 1.9 15.9
7-7 15.1% 7.3% 7.3% 16.0 1.1 14.0
6-8 10.2% 5.3% 5.3% 16.0 0.5 9.7
5-9 5.8% 3.7% 3.7% 16.0 0.2 5.6
4-10 2.5% 3.4% 3.4% 16.0 0.1 2.4
3-11 1.0% 2.1% 2.1% 16.0 0.0 0.9
2-12 0.3% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.0 0.3
1-13 0.0% 4.3% 4.3% 16.0 0.0 0.0
0-14 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 13.6% 13.6% 0.0% 15.9 0.0 0.0 0.2 1.3 12.1 86.4 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 13.3 11.5 57.7 23.1 7.7
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.1%