Northwestern St.
Southland
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-7.0#290
Expected Predictive Rating-4.5#244
Pace64.0#309
Improvement-1.3#268

Offense
Total Offense-4.2#293
First Shot-5.3#324
After Offensive Rebound+1.1#112
Layup/Dunks-2.7#282
2 Pt Jumpshots+3.3#30
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.7#260
Freethrows-3.3#346
Improvement-0.7#239

Defense
Total Defense-2.7#260
First Shot-3.9#302
After Offensive Rebounds+1.2#82
Layups/Dunks-0.1#168
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.9#267
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.9#268
Freethrows-1.0#255
Improvement-0.6#231
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 1.5% 2.8% 1.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.4 14.4 15.4
.500 or above 11.8% 35.1% 11.4%
.500 or above in Conference 53.7% 71.7% 53.4%
Conference Champion 1.4% 3.6% 1.3%
Last Place in Conference 2.2% 0.7% 2.2%
First Four0.4% 0.1% 0.4%
First Round1.3% 2.7% 1.3%
Second Round0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Texas (Away) - 1.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 4
Quad 20 - 20 - 6
Quad 31 - 51 - 11
Quad 410 - 711 - 18


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 08, 2024 18   @ Texas Tech L 65-86 2%     0 - 1 -3.1 +1.5 -5.2
  Nov 11, 2024 35   @ Oklahoma L 57-73 3%     0 - 2 -0.7 -8.4 +7.3
  Nov 16, 2024 186   @ Rice L 75-77 OT 21%     0 - 3 -0.3 +3.6 -3.9
  Nov 22, 2024 334   Louisiana Monroe L 63-65 74%     0 - 4 -15.5 -10.6 -5.0
  Nov 24, 2024 197   North Alabama W 71-58 41%     1 - 4 +8.2 +3.0 +6.7
  Nov 29, 2024 56   @ LSU L 53-77 5%     1 - 5 -11.6 -12.7 +1.0
  Dec 05, 2024 300   @ Incarnate Word W 72-70 41%     2 - 5 1 - 0 -2.5 +3.5 -5.7
  Dec 07, 2024 346   @ Houston Christian W 64-57 57%     3 - 5 2 - 0 -1.8 -4.2 +3.5
  Dec 14, 2024 128   @ California L 66-84 14%     3 - 6 -13.1 -1.2 -13.5
  Dec 29, 2024 33   @ Texas L 57-80 2%    
  Jan 04, 2025 238   Nicholls St. W 70-69 51%    
  Jan 06, 2025 91   McNeese St. L 61-71 17%    
  Jan 11, 2025 356   Texas A&M - Commerce W 72-63 80%    
  Jan 13, 2025 189   @ TX A&M Corpus Christi L 66-74 22%    
  Jan 18, 2025 225   SE Louisiana L 65-66 48%    
  Jan 20, 2025 343   New Orleans W 75-67 76%    
  Jan 25, 2025 213   @ Stephen F. Austin L 59-66 25%    
  Jan 27, 2025 196   @ Lamar L 63-71 23%    
  Feb 01, 2025 356   @ Texas A&M - Commerce W 69-66 61%    
  Feb 03, 2025 227   UT Rio Grande Valley L 73-74 48%    
  Feb 08, 2025 91   @ McNeese St. L 58-74 7%    
  Feb 10, 2025 238   @ Nicholls St. L 66-72 30%    
  Feb 15, 2025 213   Stephen F. Austin L 62-63 45%    
  Feb 17, 2025 196   Lamar L 66-68 42%    
  Feb 22, 2025 343   @ New Orleans W 72-70 56%    
  Feb 24, 2025 225   @ SE Louisiana L 63-69 28%    
  Mar 01, 2025 346   Houston Christian W 71-63 76%    
  Mar 03, 2025 300   @ Incarnate Word L 69-71 42%    
Projected Record 11 - 17 10 - 10




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southland Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 1.4 1st
2nd 0.0 0.4 1.5 2.1 1.4 0.4 0.1 0.0 5.9 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.5 2.4 3.6 1.6 0.3 0.0 0.0 8.4 3rd
4th 0.0 0.4 3.2 4.6 2.0 0.2 0.0 10.5 4th
5th 0.0 0.3 3.0 5.7 2.5 0.3 0.0 11.9 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 2.8 6.4 3.5 0.4 0.0 13.4 6th
7th 0.0 0.3 2.4 6.3 4.3 0.6 0.0 13.9 7th
8th 0.0 0.3 2.4 5.9 4.3 0.8 0.0 13.7 8th
9th 0.0 0.3 1.9 4.6 3.4 0.7 0.0 11.0 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 1.2 2.6 1.7 0.4 0.0 6.2 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.3 0.8 0.1 0.0 2.9 11th
12th 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.9 12th
Total 0.1 0.2 1.1 3.1 5.7 9.2 12.4 14.6 14.9 13.4 10.4 7.4 4.1 2.1 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.0 Total



Southland Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0
18-2 96.5% 0.1    0.1 0.0
17-3 60.0% 0.2    0.1 0.1 0.0
16-4 48.4% 0.4    0.2 0.2 0.0
15-5 18.8% 0.4    0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0
14-6 4.2% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.4% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0% 0.0    0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 1.4% 1.4 0.6 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
18-2 0.1% 21.1% 21.1% 13.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
17-3 0.3% 21.3% 21.3% 14.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3
16-4 0.9% 14.6% 14.6% 14.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.7
15-5 2.1% 11.0% 11.0% 15.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 1.9
14-6 4.1% 8.2% 8.2% 15.4 0.0 0.2 0.2 3.7
13-7 7.4% 4.0% 4.0% 15.6 0.0 0.1 0.2 7.1
12-8 10.4% 1.6% 1.6% 15.8 0.0 0.1 10.2
11-9 13.4% 0.9% 0.9% 15.9 0.0 0.1 13.3
10-10 14.9% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.1 14.9
9-11 14.6% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 14.6
8-12 12.4% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 12.4
7-13 9.2% 9.2
6-14 5.7% 5.7
5-15 3.1% 3.1
4-16 1.1% 1.1
3-17 0.2% 0.2
2-18 0.1% 0.1
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 1.5% 1.5% 0.0% 15.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.6 0.8 98.5 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.1%