Northwestern St.
Southland
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
Switch to All-time Team Page
Predictive Rating -6.3 275
Results Rating -8.5 303
Pace 64.1 303
Improvement +5.3 21

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense D+ 269 D D+ C C+ D
Defense D+ 251 D D- C+ D+ D+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 36% 249 D- 51% 336 -4.0 317
2 Pt. Jumpers 50% 52 C+ 40% 94 +3.7 34
Three Pointers 35% 298 C- 32% 258 -3.8 308
Shot Selection/Accuracy D -1.2 323 D+ -2.9 282
1st FG Attempt D 0.94 308
Second Chance D- 24.4% 333 B- 1.11 65 D+ 0.27 271
Turnovers C 16.8% 172
Freethrows C+ 0.31 158 B- 74% 121 C+ 0.23 133
Total Offense D+ -3.8 269

Assists Blocks (Opponents')
Close Shots D+ 42% 277 C- 12.1% 256
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots C 24% 184 B 3.1% 58
Three Pointers D+ 80% 264 D- 1.7% 332
Total D 48% 323 C 5.9% 213

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 41% 128 C- 60% 245 +2.3 263
2 Pt. Jumpers 19% 241 F+ 44% 345 +0.4 220
Three Pointers 41% 189 D+ 36% 276 +1.2 238
Shot Selection/Accuracy D+ +0.4 247 D +3.3 305
1st FG Attempt D 1.10 304
Second Chance D 33.6% 303 D- 1.15 332 D- 0.39 338
Turnovers C+ 17.4% 136
Freethrows D+ 0.34 282 C 72% 185 D+ 0.24 273
Total Defense D+ -2.6 251

Assists Blocks
Close Shots D+ 53% 287 D+ 8.2% 288
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots B- 22% 112 D- 1.5% 346
Three Pointers C 85% 199 D+ 0.4% 278
Total C- 57% 219 D 3.8% 316

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 18.7 313 17.0 132
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.14 267 0.17 188
Improvement -2.2 #296 +7.6 #1

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Prediction Sensitivity
Pessimistic
5th Percentile 		Expected
50th Percentile 		Optimistic
95th Percentile
Predictive Rating Rank 291 271 244
Results Rating Rank 320 295 260
Conference Record 7 - 15 8 - 14 9 - 13
Conference Finish 10 8 7
NCAA Tourney Seed None None None
NCAA Tourney Finish None None None

NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0% 0% 0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 0% 0% 0%
.500 or above in Conference 0% 0% 0%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0%
Last Place in Conference 3% 0% 7%
First Four0% 0% 0%
First Round0% 0% 0%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Next Game: Incarnate Word (Home) - 60.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 30 - 4
Quad 20 - 40 - 8
Quad 32 - 42 - 12
Quad 46 - 108 - 22


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 34 @Texas A&M L 68 - 98 2% -19  0% 0 - 1 D- -13 D -5 D C- D+ D -5 B- F B-
 Thu, Nov 6 137 @North Texas L 53 - 80 16% -8  3% 0 - 2 F -23 D -6 C F F F -22 F F C+
 Tue, Nov 11 342 @North Alabama L 83 - 87 OT 61% -5  4% 0 - 3 D- -13 D+ -3 C F C F -10 D F C-
 Tue, Nov 18 127 @San Francisco L 64 - 84 14% -15  1% 0 - 4 F+ -15 C- -2 D C D- F -15 F C D-
 Fri, Nov 21 62 @Grand Canyon L 72 - 85 6% -8  1% 0 - 5 C -1 B +7 A F A- F+ -8 F+ D C+
 Sat, Nov 29 258 Southern L 73 - 75 59% -8  6% 0 - 6 D -11 D -5 D C+ D+ D -5 F D B+
 Fri, Dec 5 81 @McNeese St. L 54 - 92 7% -24  0% 0 - 7 0 - 1 F -28 F -14 D F F+ F -16 F C- B-
 Sun, Dec 7 287 @SE Louisiana W 76 - 68 43% -3  18% 1 - 7 1 - 1 C+ +4 B +6 C- A+ F+ C- -2 C+ D- C-
 Sat, Dec 13 70 @California L 70 - 79 6% -1  38% 1 - 8 C+ +2 C+ +3 A- C F C -1 B- F B+
 Mon, Dec 29 216 Lamar L 61 - 76 49% -12  12% 1 - 9 1 - 2 F -21 F -13 F F+ D- F+ -9 F B- B+
 Wed, Dec 31 102 Stephen F. Austin L 64 - 74 22% -7  5% 1 - 10 1 - 3 D -8 D -5 D F+ A+ D+ -4 D+ B+ C+
 Sat, Jan 3 206 New Orleans W 74 - 68 47% -5  16% 2 - 10 2 - 3 C +1 C- -1 F A+ C C+ +1 B- C+ D
 Mon, Jan 5 256 @Nicholls St. L 72 - 74 35% -2  30% 2 - 11 2 - 4 C- -4 D -5 F+ C A- C+ +0 F+ A- D+
 Sat, Jan 10 205 TX A&M Corpus Christi W 79 - 78 46% -7  8% 3 - 11 3 - 4 C- -4 B +7 A A- F+ F -11 F C- F
 Mon, Jan 12 145 UT Rio Grande Valley W 64 - 63 34% -4  4% 4 - 11 4 - 4 C -1 F+ -9 D- D+ D- A- +8 B- B A-
 Sat, Jan 17 269 @Incarnate Word L 74 - 76 38% +4  80% 4 - 12 4 - 5 D+ -5 C- -1 B- F F D+ -4 C F A-
 Mon, Jan 19 298 @Houston Christian L 80 - 82 45% +4  91% 4 - 13 4 - 6 D+ -7 A+ +23 B A+ B+ F -31 F F C
 Tue, Jan 27 102 @Stephen F. Austin L 67 - 69 10% -8  0% 4 - 14 4 - 7 B- +6 D -5 F B- B+ A +11 A- C- C+
 Sat, Jan 31 206 @New Orleans L 64 - 75 25% -4  20% 4 - 15 4 - 8 D -10 F -10 C- F C- C -1 C F C
 Mon, Feb 2 256 Nicholls St. L 58 - 61 58% -9  9% 4 - 16 4 - 9 D- -11 F -16 F B- C B +5 A F B+
 Wed, Feb 4 308 East Texas A&M L 68 - 74 70% -0  34% 4 - 17 4 - 10 F+ -18 D+ -3 B- F A F -15 F F+ C-
 Sat, Feb 7 308 @East Texas A&M L 48 - 52 47% -6  0% 4 - 18 4 - 11 D -10 F -25 F B F A+ +15 A+ A+ D-
 Mon, Feb 9 216 @Lamar W 70 - 68 28% +3  82% 5 - 18 5 - 11 C+ +2 C- -0 D- D+ A B- +2 D+ A- C
 Sat, Feb 14 287 SE Louisiana W 69 - 66 66% -2  15% 6 - 18 6 - 11 D+ -7 C -0 C- D A D- -7 D- F A+
 Mon, Feb 16 81 McNeese St. L 64 - 75 17% -11  0% 6 - 19 6 - 12 D+ -7 D+ -3 C- F A D -5 B D- F
 Sat, Feb 21 298 Houston Christian W 71 - 53 68% +10  88% 7 - 19 7 - 12 B- +7 D+ -2 F C A+ A+ +11 A D A
 Mon, Feb 23 269 Incarnate Word W 73 - 70 61%
 Sat, Feb 28 205 @TX A&M Corpus Christi L 64 - 71 26%
 Mon, Mar 2 145 @UT Rio Grande Valley L 66 - 76 17%
Totals 8 - 21 8 - 14 -6 D+ -4 A+ D+ D D+ -3 C- B- C+



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings D+ D- C+ C- D+ 36% 50% 35% D D D- B- D+ C C+ B- C+ D+ C- F+ D+ D 41% 19% 41% D+ D D D- D- C+ D+ C D+
1.03 51% 40% 32% -3 -1 0.94 24% 1.1 .27 17% .31 74% .23 1.12 60% 44% 36% +3 0 1.10 34% 1.2 .39 17% .34 72% .23
Nov
3		 Texas A&M D F A- C+ D 39% 27% 35% C- D C- C C- D+ A- C- B+ D D+ A+ C+ B- 43% 7% 50% C- B- F D F B- D C+ D+
0.90 37% 46% 35% -5 -1 0.90 27% 0.9 .24 21% .35 71% .25 1.30 64% 25% 34% +2 +2 1.10 44% 1.1 .46 16% .36 74% .27
Nov
6		 North Texas D F A+ D- B- 16% 41% 44% F C C F F F A+ B A+ F F F F F 38% 14% 48% C F F F F C+ F A- D-
0.90 40% 54% 29% 0 -4 0.94 33% 0.3 .10 27% .63 74% .46 1.35 69% 50% 45% +14 +1 1.31 46% 1.3 .58 19% .46 64% .29
Nov
11		 North Alabama D+ B+ C+ C- C+ 40% 31% 29% F C F F F C A+ A A+ F B- B+ F+ D+ 51% 15% 34% D- D F F F C- F C- F
1.11 67% 44% 33% +5 -1 1.10 20% 0.3 .07 15% .46 83% .38 1.17 50% 29% 38% -4 +2 0.98 40% 1.5 .60 17% .60 68% .41
Nov
18		 San Francisco C- F C A D 35% 30% 35% D D C+ D C D- A+ D- A+ F D- F F F 38% 3% 60% F F D+ B C D- F C F
1.03 33% 38% 40% -5 -1 0.88 29% 1.0 .29 16% .50 69% .35 1.35 67% 100% 46% +15 +2 1.38 35% 1.0 .35 13% .57 71% .41
Nov
21		 Grand Canyon B A+ A+ D+ A+ 22% 38% 40% F A F D+ F A- A F+ B+ F+ F D- C F 40% 17% 43% C- F+ F A- D C+ F C- F
1.04 73% 53% 30% +6 -3 1.08 9% 1.0 .09 15% .41 67% .27 1.23 71% 43% 33% +5 +1 1.14 46% 0.9 .42 17% .68 77% .53
Nov
29		 Southern D F A+ A+ D- 36% 22% 42% C- D C- A- C+ D+ F F F D B- A+ F F+ 56% 14% 30% F F F+ C D B+ A A+ A+
1.06 22% 55% 48% -1 0 1.00 31% 1.3 .39 20% .27 67% .18 1.08 54% 14% 53% +3 +2 1.12 35% 1.0 .35 20% .24 54% .13
Dec
5		 McNeese St. F F D+ C D 22% 13% 65% C- D F F F F+ F C- F F F D+ F F 57% 13% 30% F F F A+ C- B- C+ C C+
0.81 40% 33% 33% -5 0 0.91 23% 0.8 .17 28% .23 73% .17 1.37 70% 43% 50% +15 +2 1.36 50% 0.7 .37 15% .28 75% .21
Dec
7		 SE Louisiana B B- D A- C+ 36% 38% 26% F C- A A+ A+ F+ A+ B- A+ C- F B- A+ C 35% 28% 37% C+ C+ C+ F D- C- F D+ F
1.15 64% 33% 40% +3 -2 1.03 41% 1.6 .67 23% .53 78% .41 1.03 80% 33% 13% -6 -1 0.88 26% 1.2 .32 17% .55 70% .38
Dec
13		 California C+ C+ D- A+ A+ 26% 28% 46% F A- F A+ C F C- A+ A- C B- A+ F B+ 38% 15% 48% F+ B- D F F B+ D D+ D-
1.04 58% 31% 43% +4 -2 1.07 17% 1.6 .28 21% .28 87% .25 1.18 56% 0% 43% 0 +1 1.04 31% 1.6 .50 18% .38 81% .31
Dec
29		 Lamar F F A- D- D- 33% 37% 30% F F F C- F+ D- A+ D- A F+ F F C- F 38% 28% 34% F+ F A+ F B- B+ B C B
0.92 43% 44% 31% -4 -3 0.88 20% 1.0 .20 20% .53 64% .34 1.15 79% 57% 35% +14 -1 1.28 25% 1.2 .29 20% .19 70% .13
Dec
31		 Stephen F. Austin D D C F D- 48% 20% 32% B- D F A+ F+ A+ A+ F A D+ F+ D- A C- 46% 18% 36% F D+ D+ A+ B+ C+ F D F
0.97 50% 40% 25% -8 +1 0.88 14% 1.4 .20 11% .43 64% .27 1.13 65% 44% 28% +1 +1 1.06 34% 0.8 .26 14% .35 70% .25
Jan
3		 New Orleans C- F F+ D+ F 44% 20% 36% C F C A+ A+ C A+ A A+ C+ F F A+ C 23% 33% 44% A+ B- D+ B C+ D A+ F A
1.13 35% 33% 31% -13 +1 0.78 34% 1.5 .51 15% .47 81% .38 1.03 75% 47% 22% -1 -3 0.94 37% 0.9 .34 17% .24 85% .20
Jan
5		 Nicholls St. D C A+ F F+ 43% 14% 43% C+ F+ D- A C A- C+ F+ C- C+ F D A D- 51% 10% 39% F F+ C A+ A- D+ F A+ F
1.04 62% 57% 24% -2 +1 1.00 29% 1.3 .39 17% .37 71% .26 1.07 72% 40% 26% +3 +2 1.12 25% 0.7 .17 14% .52 48% .25
Jan
10		 TX A&M Corpus Christi B C+ A- A+ A+ 55% 21% 24% B- A C A+ A- F+ B+ A- A F F F B- F 40% 26% 34% B F B- F C- F F C+ F
1.16 61% 44% 50% +9 +1 1.21 28% 1.4 .40 24% .46 79% .37 1.15 68% 50% 31% +6 0 1.13 26% 1.1 .29 13% .48 64% .31
Jan
12		 UT Rio Grande Valley F+ C F+ F+ D- 35% 23% 42% C- D- F A- D+ D- A A A+ A- C A B+ B+ 45% 8% 47% F B- A+ F B A- A F B+
0.97 60% 30% 28% -5 -1 0.91 22% 1.0 .22 20% .43 78% .34 0.95 59% 25% 30% -3 +2 1.00 14% 1.8 .24 21% .13 100% .13
Jan
17		 Incarnate Word C- A- A C- B 47% 19% 35% C B- F B- F F A+ B- A+ D+ A+ F D C 35% 28% 37% B- C C- F F A- F F F
1.12 70% 50% 33% +7 +1 1.19 21% 1.2 .25 20% .47 76% .36 1.15 27% 67% 38% -1 -1 0.98 33% 1.9 .63 20% .47 88% .42
Jan
19		 Houston Christian A+ C+ A+ B B 46% 15% 39% C+ B A+ A- A+ B+ A+ A- A+ F C F F F 41% 13% 46% F+ F F F F C F D F
1.44 63% 67% 38% +9 +1 1.22 48% 1.3 .61 14% .51 79% .40 1.48 56% 60% 56% +17 +1 1.38 50% 1.4 .68 18% .48 73% .35
Jan
27		 Stephen F. Austin D F D- C F 43% 31% 26% D F D+ A+ B- B+ F+ D F A B B+ C+ B+ 30% 36% 34% A- A- A+ F C- C+ F+ B+ D+
0.94 32% 33% 33% -13 -1 0.74 26% 1.4 .35 14% .21 69% .15 0.97 50% 32% 33% -5 -3 0.87 24% 1.4 .34 14% .29 61% .18
Jan
31		 New Orleans F F+ A+ F+ C- 40% 26% 34% D C- F F F C- F B+ F C A- F+ D+ C+ 43% 25% 32% C- C D- F F C F C+ F
0.95 48% 57% 28% -2 -1 0.96 23% 0.8 .17 16% .16 78% .12 1.11 47% 45% 36% -2 0 0.98 39% 1.4 .55 19% .49 74% .37
Feb
2		 Nicholls St. F D F F F 41% 20% 39% C- F D- A+ B- C B B- B+ B A+ F B A+ 45% 25% 30% C+ A F C- F B+ D F F
0.92 56% 11% 18% -16 0 0.70 29% 1.5 .44 21% .40 80% .32 0.96 35% 45% 31% -10 0 0.82 33% 1.1 .36 19% .33 76% .25
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Feb
4		 East Texas A&M D+ D+ A+ A B+ 40% 25% 35% D- B- F A+ F A F+ F F F D+ A+ F F 43% 6% 51% F F A+ F F+ C- B F C-
1.08 53% 58% 41% +7 0 1.15 13% 1.5 .19 13% .25 50% .13 1.17 62% 0% 44% +7 +2 1.20 15% 2.0 .31 17% .19 90% .17
Feb
7		 East Texas A&M F F F F F 37% 31% 33% F F C+ B+ B F D+ A+ C+ A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ 42% 12% 46% D- A+ F+ A+ A+ D- F C F
0.72 17% 27% 25% -23 -1 0.53 34% 1.3 .43 23% .29 80% .23 0.78 41% 17% 25% -16 +1 0.73 29% 0.1 .04 15% .37 67% .25
Feb
9		 Lamar C- B D- D D 34% 34% 32% F D- F A D+ A D D D- B- A D F D 30% 39% 30% B- D+ B- A+ A- C F D+ F
1.06 65% 29% 31% -2 -2 0.94 22% 1.3 .27 12% .34 65% .22 1.03 43% 44% 43% +2 -3 1.00 31% 0.7 .23 17% .40 73% .29
Feb
14		 SE Louisiana C C+ C- B C 33% 35% 33% F+ C- F+ B- D A C A+ B D- D- F A+ F 35% 38% 28% A D- F F F A+ F+ C+ D-
1.10 63% 35% 38% +2 -2 1.02 23% 1.2 .27 14% .37 85% .32 1.06 64% 53% 18% +1 -2 1.00 46% 1.2 .57 26% .39 67% .26
Feb
16		 McNeese St. D+ A D- F C- 43% 33% 25% D- C- C F F A A+ A A+ D B B- C C+ 27% 35% 38% A+ B C- D- D- F C A+ B+
1.01 71% 31% 20% -2 -1 0.95 34% 0.6 .21 20% .54 81% .44 1.18 53% 37% 33% -2 -3 0.93 36% 1.1 .41 8% .29 59% .17
Feb
21		 Houston Christian D+ D+ B- F F+ 40% 35% 25% F F F A+ C A+ B+ A- A- A+ A+ C B- A 39% 25% 36% B- A B F D A B- B- B-
1.12 58% 41% 25% -2 -2 0.94 23% 1.6 .37 11% .34 79% .27 0.84 35% 36% 31% -11 -1 0.80 24% 1.2 .30 22% .24 67% .16



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southland Finish

0-22 1-21 2-20 3-19 4-18 5-17 6-16 7-15 8-14 9-13 10-12 11-11 12-10 13-9 14-8 15-7 16-6 17-5 18-4 19-3 20-2 21-1 22-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 0.1 0.1 5th
6th 0.7 0.7 6th
7th 16.0 17.6 2.3 35.9 7th
8th 5.9 31.5 4.7 42.2 8th
9th 13.0 1.7 14.6 9th
10th 6.1 0.0 6.1 10th
11th 0.4 0.4 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 12th
Total 25.4 49.2 22.3 3.1 Total



Southland Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
22-0
21-1
20-2
19-3
18-4
17-5
16-6
15-7
14-8
13-9
12-10
11-11
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
22-0
21-1
20-2
19-3
18-4
17-5
16-6
15-7
14-8
13-9
12-10
11-11
10-12 3.1% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 3.0
9-13 22.3% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.1 22.3
8-14 49.2% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.1 49.1
7-15 25.4% 25.4
6-16
5-17
4-18
3-19
2-20
1-21
0-22
Total 100% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 16.0 99.8 0.0%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.5%
Lose Out 25.4%