Northwestern St.
Southland
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -6.2 #270
Expected Predictive Rating -8.5 #300
Pace 64.7 #292
Improvement +4.9 #18

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #221 C- D+ C- C+ D+
Defense #300 D- D- C D D+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 37% #231 1.02 #329 -3.6 #302
2 Pt. Jumpers 27% #70 0.86 #50 +3.8 #30
Three Pointers 37% #269 1.04 #155 -1.8 #246
1st FG Attempt 0.99 #226 -1.6 #227
Freethrows 0.32 #130 74% #131 0.24 #117
Second Chance 25.0% #327 1.10 #77 0.28 #260
Turnovers 17.4% #228
Total Offense -2.0 #221

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 42% #105 1.28 #327 -4.3 #319
2 Pt. Jumpers 17% #297 0.90 #348 +0.3 #161
Three Pointers 42% #156 1.09 #289 -2.0 #275
1st FG Attempt 1.14 #342 -6.0 #342
Freethrows 0.35 #312 72% #147 0.25 #307
Second Chance 33.6% #301 1.19 #349 0.40 #344
Turnovers 17.0% #156
Total Defense -4.2 #300

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -1.8% #301 1.5% #302
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -1.4% #198 10.2% #338
Possession Length 19.0 #334 16.5 #57
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.12 #303 0.20 #272
Improvement -0.4 #201 +5.3 #5

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.2% 0.4% 0.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 12.2% 18.8% 3.1%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 8.5% 4.4% 14.1%
First Four0.2% 0.3% 0.1%
First Round0.2% 0.3% 0.1%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Nicholls St. (Home) - 57.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 30 - 4
Quad 20 - 30 - 7
Quad 31 - 62 - 13
Quad 47 - 89 - 21


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 27 @Texas A&M L 68 - 98 2% -19  0 - 1 -11 -1 D C- C -8 B- F C+
 Thu, Nov 6 147 @North Texas L 53 - 80 17% -8  0 - 2 -23 -3 C F F -25 F F C+
 Tue, Nov 11 326 @North Alabama L 83 - 87 OT 54% -5  0 - 3 -11 +1 C+ F C -12 D F C
 Tue, Nov 18 97 @San Francisco L 64 - 84 9% -15  0 - 4 -12 +3 D+ C D -17 F C+ D
 Fri, Nov 21 65 @Grand Canyon L 72 - 85 6% -8  0 - 5 -1 +9 A+ F A- -11 F+ F+ C
 Sat, Nov 29 266 Southern L 73 - 75 61% -8  0 - 6 -11 -2 D B- C- -9 F D+ B
 Fri, Dec 5 85 @McNeese St. L 54 - 92 8% -24  0 - 7 0 - 1 -28 -13 D+ F F -18 F C- B-
 Sun, Dec 7 271 @SE Louisiana W 76 - 68 39% -3  1 - 7 1 - 1 +5 +9 C A+ D- -4 C+ D- C-
 Sat, Dec 13 64 @California L 70 - 79 6% -1  1 - 8 +3 +7 A- C+ F -4 C+ F A-
 Mon, Dec 29 197 Lamar L 61 - 76 47% -12  1 - 9 1 - 2 -20 -10 F+ F+ D+ -12 F B B
 Wed, Dec 31 105 Stephen F. Austin L 64 - 74 24% -7  1 - 10 1 - 3 -9 -3 D+ F+ A+ -7 D+ B+ C
 Sat, Jan 3 218 New Orleans W 74 - 68 50% -5  2 - 10 2 - 3 -0 +1 F A+ C- -0 B- C+ D
 Mon, Jan 5 249 @Nicholls St. L 72 - 74 35% -2  2 - 11 2 - 4 -4 -1 F+ B- A- -4 D- B+ D+
 Sat, Jan 10 196 TX A&M Corpus Christi W 79 - 78 47% -7  3 - 11 3 - 4 -4 +9 A+ B+ D- -14 F C F+
 Mon, Jan 12 181 UT Rio Grande Valley W 64 - 63 43% -4  4 - 11 4 - 4 -4 -6 D- D+ D +3 B- C+ B+
 Sat, Jan 17 248 @Incarnate Word L 74 - 76 35% +4  4 - 12 4 - 5 -4 +4 B F+ D- -8 C F A+
 Mon, Jan 19 297 @Houston Christian L 80 - 82 45% +4  4 - 13 4 - 6 -7 +24 C+ A+ B -31 F F C
 Tue, Jan 27 105 @Stephen F. Austin L 67 - 69 11% -8  4 - 14 4 - 7 +5 -2 F C+ B- +7 B+ C C+
 Sat, Jan 31 218 @New Orleans L 64 - 75 28% -4  4 - 15 4 - 8 -11 -9 C- F D -3 C F C
 Mon, Feb 2 249 Nicholls St. W 74 - 72 58%
 Wed, Feb 4 311 East Texas A&M W 74 - 68 71%
 Sat, Feb 7 311 @East Texas A&M L 71 - 72 49%
 Mon, Feb 9 197 @Lamar L 66 - 73 26%
 Sat, Feb 14 271 SE Louisiana W 70 - 67 61%
 Mon, Feb 16 85 McNeese St. L 67 - 77 18%
 Sat, Feb 21 297 Houston Christian W 74 - 69 67%
 Mon, Feb 23 248 Incarnate Word W 74 - 72 58%
 Sat, Feb 28 196 @TX A&M Corpus Christi L 65 - 72 27%
 Mon, Mar 2 181 @UT Rio Grande Valley L 68 - 76 24%
Totals 9 - 20 9 - 13 -6 -2 C- D+ C- -4 D- D- C




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southland Finish

0-22 1-21 2-20 3-19 4-18 5-17 6-16 7-15 8-14 9-13 10-12 11-11 12-10 13-9 14-8 15-7 16-6 17-5 18-4 19-3 20-2 21-1 22-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.6 0.4 0.1 1.1 3rd
4th 0.1 1.0 1.2 0.2 2.4 4th
5th 0.0 1.1 3.4 0.9 0.0 5.4 5th
6th 0.6 4.9 3.1 0.2 8.8 6th
7th 0.0 0.7 7.0 7.6 1.0 0.0 16.2 7th
8th 0.0 1.1 9.3 13.3 3.1 0.1 26.8 8th
9th 0.3 5.8 9.4 2.4 0.0 18.0 9th
10th 0.0 2.1 7.1 2.3 0.1 11.7 10th
11th 0.7 3.7 2.0 0.1 6.4 11th
12th 0.4 1.5 1.2 0.1 3.2 12th
Total 0.4 2.2 7.3 16.1 21.7 23.3 16.8 8.6 2.9 0.6 0.1 Total



Southland Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
22-0
21-1
20-2
19-3
18-4
17-5
16-6
15-7
14-8 0.0%
13-9 0.0%
12-10 0.0%
11-11 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
22-0
21-1
20-2
19-3
18-4
17-5
16-6
15-7
14-8 0.1% 0.1
13-9 0.6% 2.5% 2.5% 16.0 0.0 0.6
12-10 2.9% 0.9% 0.9% 16.0 0.0 2.9
11-11 8.6% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.1 8.5
10-12 16.8% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.1 16.7
9-13 23.3% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 23.3
8-14 21.7% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 21.7
7-15 16.1% 16.1
6-16 7.3% 7.3
5-17 2.2% 2.2
4-18 0.4% 0.4
3-19
2-20
1-21
0-22
Total 100% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 16.0 99.8 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.4%