Northwestern St.
Southland
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -7.1 #288
Expected Predictive Rating -9.9 #318
Pace 64.4 #306
Improvement +4.3 #17

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #240 D+ D C- B+ D-
Defense #321 F D+ C D+ D-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 35% #292 0.98 #339 -5.4 #336
2 Pt. Jumpers 28% #46 0.85 #56 +4.3 #22
Three Pointers 37% #260 1.05 #136 -1.2 #226
1st FG Attempt 0.97 #242 -2.3 #243
Freethrows 20.2 #54 74% #141 14.9 #58
Second Chance 24.3% #329 1.07 #160 0.26 #293
Turnovers 17.3% #225
Total Offense -2.4 #240

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 43% #74 1.36 #354 -6.8 #354
2 Pt. Jumpers 15% #324 0.83 #292 +1.4 #94
Three Pointers 42% #157 1.10 #294 -2.4 #277
1st FG Attempt 1.17 #357 -7.7 #357
Freethrows 19.4 #289 72% #148 13.9 #88
Second Chance 35.7% #334 1.02 #165 0.37 #285
Turnovers 16.8% #170
Total Defense -4.7 #321

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -2.5% #324 2.0% #339
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -2.1% #212 13.0% #349
Possession Length 18.5 #307 16.6 #74
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.13 #288 0.21 #296
Improvement -1.0 #255 +5.3 #1

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.2% 0.3% 0.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.8 15.8 15.9
.500 or above 0.4% 0.8% 0.1%
.500 or above in Conference 14.4% 23.5% 8.1%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 15.0% 7.6% 20.1%
First Four0.2% 0.2% 0.1%
First Round0.2% 0.3% 0.1%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: TX A&M Corpus Christi (Home) - 40.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 2
Quad 20 - 50 - 7
Quad 31 - 71 - 14
Quad 47 - 88 - 21


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 40 @Texas A&M L 68 - 98 3%  -19  0 - 1 -14 -3 F D C -9 C+ F C
 Thu, Nov 6 133 @North Texas L 53 - 80 14%  -8  0 - 2 -22 -3 B- F F -24 F F C+
 Tue, Nov 11 293 @North Alabama L 83 - 87 OT 40%  -5  0 - 3 -8 +4 B F C -12 F F C+
 Tue, Nov 18 100 @San Francisco L 64 - 84 9%  -15  0 - 4 -12 +4 D- C+ D -18 F B D+
 Fri, Nov 21 83 @Grand Canyon L 72 - 85 6%  -8  0 - 5 -3 +8 A+ F A+ -11 F D- C
 Sat, Nov 29 256 Southern L 73 - 75 56%  -8  0 - 6 -11 -2 F C+ D -8 F D+ B+
 Fri, Dec 5 87 @McNeese St. L 54 - 92 7%  -24  0 - 7 0 - 1 -28 -12 C- F F -18 F C B-
 Sun, Dec 7 260 @SE Louisiana W 76 - 68 33%  -3  1 - 7 1 - 1 +5 +9 C A+ F -3 C+ F C
 Sat, Dec 13 84 @California L 70 - 79 7%  -1  1 - 8 +1 +5 A C F -5 B- F A
 Mon, Dec 29 231 Lamar L 61 - 76 49%  -12  1 - 9 1 - 2 -22 -9 F F C- -14 F B+ A-
 Wed, Dec 31 112 Stephen F. Austin L 64 - 74 22%  -7  1 - 10 1 - 3 -9 -3 D+ F A+ -7 F A+ C
 Sat, Jan 3 236 New Orleans W 74 - 68 50%  -5  2 - 10 2 - 3 -1 +0 F A+ C- -1 C B- D+
 Mon, Jan 5 215 @Nicholls St. L 72 - 74 25%  -2  2 - 11 2 - 4 -2 +1 F C A+ -3 D- A D
 Sat, Jan 10 183 TX A&M Corpus Christi L 68 - 70 41% 
 Mon, Jan 12 220 UT Rio Grande Valley L 71 - 72 47% 
 Sat, Jan 17 165 @Incarnate Word L 67 - 76 19% 
 Mon, Jan 19 300 @Houston Christian L 69 - 71 41% 
 Sat, Jan 24 324 East Texas A&M W 75 - 69 71% 
 Mon, Jan 26 112 @Stephen F. Austin L 62 - 76 10% 
 Sat, Jan 31 236 @New Orleans L 73 - 79 29% 
 Mon, Feb 2 215 Nicholls St. L 72 - 73 46% 
 Sat, Feb 7 324 @East Texas A&M W 72 - 71 50% 
 Mon, Feb 9 231 @Lamar L 64 - 70 29% 
 Sat, Feb 14 260 SE Louisiana W 69 - 67 56% 
 Mon, Feb 16 87 McNeese St. L 66 - 77 16% 
 Sat, Feb 21 300 Houston Christian W 72 - 68 63% 
 Mon, Feb 23 165 Incarnate Word L 70 - 73 38% 
 Sat, Feb 28 183 @TX A&M Corpus Christi L 65 - 73 22% 
 Mon, Mar 2 220 @UT Rio Grande Valley L 68 - 75 27% 
Totals 8 - 21 8 - 14 -7 -2 D+ D C- -5 F D+ C




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southland Finish

0-22 1-21 2-20 3-19 4-18 5-17 6-16 7-15 8-14 9-13 10-12 11-11 12-10 13-9 14-8 15-7 16-6 17-5 18-4 19-3 20-2 21-1 22-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.5 0.1 0.0 1.4 3rd
4th 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.2 0.9 0.3 0.0 3.0 4th
5th 0.1 0.6 2.2 1.7 0.4 0.0 5.1 5th
6th 0.1 1.0 3.7 3.1 0.8 0.1 8.7 6th
7th 0.1 0.9 4.3 5.0 1.3 0.1 0.0 11.6 7th
8th 0.0 0.9 5.0 7.0 2.1 0.1 15.2 8th
9th 0.0 1.0 5.4 7.4 2.6 0.3 0.0 16.7 9th
10th 0.0 1.1 5.1 7.0 2.9 0.3 0.0 16.4 10th
11th 0.1 1.2 4.0 5.6 2.4 0.3 0.0 13.6 11th
12th 0.2 1.1 2.7 2.8 1.1 0.1 8.1 12th
Total 0.2 1.3 3.9 7.9 12.8 15.9 16.6 15.2 11.8 7.3 4.0 2.0 0.8 0.2 0.1 Total



Southland Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
22-0
21-1
20-2
19-3
18-4
17-5
16-6 16.7% 0.0    0.0 0.0
15-7 0.0%
14-8 0.0%
13-9 0.0%
12-10 0.0%
11-11 0.0%
Total 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
22-0
21-1
20-2
19-3
18-4
17-5
16-6 0.1% 0.1
15-7 0.2% 2.6% 2.6% 15.0 0.0 0.2
14-8 0.8% 3.8% 3.8% 15.0 0.0 0.8
13-9 2.0% 1.5% 1.5% 15.7 0.0 0.0 2.0
12-10 4.0% 1.0% 1.0% 16.0 0.0 4.0
11-11 7.3% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.0 7.2
10-12 11.8% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 11.7
9-13 15.2% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 15.2
8-14 16.6% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 16.6
7-15 15.9% 15.9
6-16 12.8% 12.8
5-17 7.9% 7.9
4-18 3.9% 3.9
3-19 1.3% 1.3
2-20 0.2% 0.2
1-21
0-22
Total 100% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 15.8 99.8 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.2%