Portland St.
Big Sky
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +0.3 150
Results Rating +1.8 135
Pace 68.5 178
Improvement +0.7 167

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense D+ 283 C- C- D C- B-
Defense B 56 B C+ B- F+ C-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 44% 35 D+ 55% 260 +2.1 102
2 Pt. Jumpers 40% 155 D+ 34% 288 -1.5 259
Three Pointers 37% 267 C 34% 171 -1.9 247
Shot Selection/Accuracy B- +0.7 91 C- -1.9 247
1st FG Attempt C- 0.99 210
Second Chance C 30.6% 177 D+ 0.95 291 C- 0.29 221
Turnovers D 19.1% 320
Freethrows C 0.31 186 D+ 70% 267 C- 0.21 206
Total Offense D+ -4.3 283

Assists Blocks (Opponents')
Close Shots B- 54% 90 C 11.3% 197
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots C 25% 164 C 5.5% 219
Three Pointers B 91% 43 C+ 0.8% 157
Total B- 60% 79 D+ 6.4% 267

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 41% 110 B- 55% 92 +0.4 195
2 Pt. Jumpers 21% 159 B- 35% 85 -0.4 155
Three Pointers 38% 275 A- 29% 21 -4.2 30
Shot Selection/Accuracy C- +0.2 196 B+ -4.3 37
1st FG Attempt B 0.94 48
Second Chance C+ 29.4% 139 C+ 1.00 131 C+ 0.29 125
Turnovers B- 18.5% 79
Freethrows D- 0.37 333 D 75% 312 F+ 0.27 344
Total Defense B +4.6 56

Assists Blocks
Close Shots C- 50% 206 C+ 12.6% 106
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots D 33% 312 C 5.2% 155
Three Pointers C- 86% 249 A 2.4% 18
Total C 57% 205 B- 7.2% 66

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 18.3 275 16.5 35
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.15 226 0.19 257
Improvement -1.3 #253 +2.0 #74

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Prediction Sensitivity
Pessimistic
5th Percentile 		Expected
50th Percentile 		Optimistic
95th Percentile
Predictive Rating Rank 181 155 131
Results Rating Rank 170 139 112
Conference Record 12 - 6 14 - 4 15 - 3
Conference Finish 1 1 1
NCAA Tourney Seed None None 13
NCAA Tourney Finish None None 1st Round

NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 24% 27% 22%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 13.9 13.6 14.1
.500 or above 100% 100% 100%
.500 or above in Conference 100% 100% 100%
Conference Champion 100% 100% 100%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0%
First Four0% 0% 0%
First Round24% 27% 22%
Second Round1% 1% 1%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Next Game: Montana St. (Away) - 40.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 15 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 20 - 20 - 3
Quad 38 - 48 - 7
Quad 410 - 318 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Tue, Nov 4 77 @Stanford L 79 - 89 17% -6  7% 0 - 1 C +1 C- -1 A+ F F B- +3 C+ D+ A+
 Wed, Nov 12 127 @San Francisco L 70 - 80 31% -12  0% 0 - 2 C- -5 D+ -3 D- B F C- -2 D+ C C
 Mon, Nov 17 332 Cal St. Bakersfield W 93 - 80 91% +7  99% 1 - 2 C -1 B +6 A+ A D- D- -8 C- F A-
 Tue, Nov 25 189 @Utah Tech W 68 - 63 46% +1  48% 2 - 2 B- +6 F+ -9 D- D F A+ +15 B A+ B
 Wed, Dec 3 293 @South Dakota W 77 - 71 69% +5  80% 3 - 2 C +1 D- -8 D+ F C- A- +8 A+ F A
 Sat, Dec 6 239 Nebraska Omaha L 55 - 60 77% -2  17% 3 - 3 D- -12 F -14 F C- D- C+ +1 A+ F B
 Wed, Dec 17 66 @Colorado L 73 - 84 15% -1  30% 3 - 4 C +1 C +0 D+ A+ D- C+ +1 B B- B+
 Sat, Dec 20 162 @Tulane L 61 - 63 41% -3  13% 3 - 5 C +1 F+ -8 F C+ D A +9 A+ C+ A+
 Thu, Jan 1 211 @Weber St. W 95 - 90 OT 50% +0  46% 4 - 5 1 - 0 B- +5 C +1 D+ C B B- +3 B+ B F
 Sat, Jan 3 252 @Idaho St. W 93 - 87 OT 59% -5  22% 5 - 5 2 - 0 C+ +4 B+ +9 A F A- D -5 F+ A- F+
 Sat, Jan 10 276 Sacramento St. W 96 - 69 82% +14  82% 6 - 5 3 - 0 A- +18 A- +11 A+ F B- B+ +6 A- A+ F
 Thu, Jan 15 168 Northern Colorado W 76 - 73 64% -1  35% 7 - 5 4 - 0 C -0 D -4 C+ A F B +4 D- A+ B
 Sat, Jan 17 304 Northern Arizona W 63 - 52 86% +5  70% 8 - 5 5 - 0 C -0 F -12 F C- D- A+ +13 B- A+ A
 Thu, Jan 22 186 @Eastern Washington W 65 - 61 46% +5  95% 9 - 5 6 - 0 B- +5 F+ -10 F B+ D- A+ +15 A+ B- C+
 Sat, Jan 24 187 @Idaho W 69 - 66 46% +5  84% 10 - 5 7 - 0 C+ +4 D+ -3 A- F C A- +7 B- A B+
 Thu, Jan 29 194 Montana L 60 - 64 70% -5  9% 10 - 6 7 - 1 D -9 F -16 F C+ F B+ +7 C+ A+ A
 Sat, Jan 31 164 Montana St. W 63 - 54 64% +3  65% 11 - 6 8 - 1 B- +6 D -5 A F F A+ +12 A+ D A
 Mon, Feb 2 252 Idaho St. W 88 - 65 78% +13  95% 12 - 6 9 - 1 A- +15 A+ +17 B+ B+ A+ C+ +1 A- F A+
 Sat, Feb 7 276 @Sacramento St. W 74 - 73 64% -1  35% 13 - 6 10 - 1 C- -2 D+ -3 F A B C+ +1 B- A- F+
 Thu, Feb 12 304 @Northern Arizona W 77 - 68 71% +1  57% 14 - 6 11 - 1 C+ +4 B- +5 B+ B- F C +0 B- F+ F
 Sat, Feb 14 168 @Northern Colorado L 65 - 77 41% 14 - 7 11 - 2 D -9
 Thu, Feb 19 187 Idaho W 77 - 67 68% +9  89% 15 - 7 12 - 2 B- +5 C +1 C- A C B +5 B C+ B
 Sat, Feb 21 186 Eastern Washington L 55 - 67 68% -2  21% 15 - 8 12 - 3 F+ -17 F -22 F F A B +5 A+ F+ C
 Thu, Feb 26 164 @Montana St. L 67 - 69 41%
 Sat, Feb 28 194 @Montana L 70 - 71 48%
 Mon, Mar 2 211 Weber St. W 76 - 70 72%
Totals 17 - 9 14 - 4 +0 D+ -4 D C- B- B +5 C D+ C-



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings D+ D+ D+ C C- 44% 40% 37% B- C- C D+ C- D C D+ C- B B- B- A- B+ 41% 21% 38% C- B C+ C+ C+ B- D- D F+
1.03 55% 34% 34% -2 +1 0.99 31% 1.0 .29 19% .31 70% .21 1.02 55% 35% 29% -4 0 0.94 29% 1.0 .29 18% .37 75% .23
Nov
4		 Stanford C- B- F+ A+ A+ 33% 19% 48% B- A+ D+ F F F F+ C- F+ B- C+ A+ C- B 58% 8% 34% F+ C+ B F D+ A+ F F F
0.98 61% 30% 50% +11 0 1.24 24% 0.0 .00 26% .27 75% .20 1.11 55% 25% 35% -2 +3 1.04 31% 1.2 .38 21% .57 81% .46
Nov
12		 San Francisco D+ F F D+ F 44% 15% 41% B+ D- A- C- B F D D- D C- C A+ F C- 40% 9% 51% F+ D+ F A+ C C F C- F
1.02 46% 25% 32% -9 +1 0.87 35% 1.1 .37 19% .23 69% .16 1.17 58% 0% 42% +3 +2 1.11 41% 0.9 .35 16% .43 72% .31
Nov
17		 Cal St. Bakersfield B B+ F A+ A+ 55% 11% 34% A A+ C A+ A D- A F B- D- A+ D F+ C- 34% 32% 34% C- C- C+ F F A- F D F
1.26 65% 20% 56% +13 +3 1.34 37% 1.4 .52 20% .44 65% .29 1.08 38% 40% 38% -5 -2 0.89 30% 1.9 .58 23% .51 79% .40
Nov
25		 Utah Tech F+ C- F F+ D- 43% 19% 38% C- D- A F D F A+ C- A+ A+ D- B A+ B 43% 21% 36% C B A+ A+ A+ B A- F B
0.96 60% 22% 28% -6 0 0.91 41% 0.6 .26 24% .44 71% .31 0.89 67% 33% 25% -2 0 0.98 10% 0.7 .06 18% .17 80% .14
Dec
3		 South Dakota D- C- F B+ D- 75% 9% 15% A+ D+ F+ F F C- A+ F+ A A- A+ B- A+ A+ 62% 12% 26% F A+ D- F F A F A- F
1.00 58% 0% 38% -3 +4 1.04 25% 0.8 .19 17% .41 69% .28 0.93 39% 33% 23% -17 +3 0.74 33% 1.3 .43 22% .57 68% .38
Dec
6		 Nebraska Omaha F A- A+ F F 33% 7% 60% B F C- C- C- D- B+ F D C+ B+ A+ B A+ 45% 15% 40% F+ A+ F F F B D- F F
0.95 71% 67% 15% -11 +1 0.84 29% 1.0 .29 17% .36 53% .19 1.04 50% 0% 31% -11 +1 0.83 37% 1.4 .50 19% .34 88% .30
Dec
17		 Colorado C C- D+ F+ D+ 44% 28% 28% C D+ C A+ A+ D- B+ C- B C+ C F A B 44% 21% 35% C B D+ B+ B- B+ F F F
1.02 55% 36% 29% -4 -1 0.92 27% 1.8 .48 20% .35 70% .24 1.18 61% 55% 28% +1 0 1.06 34% 0.8 .28 17% .44 85% .37
Dec
20		 Tulane F+ F A+ F F 40% 21% 38% C F C- B C+ D C- F D A A F A+ A+ 50% 18% 32% D- A+ F A+ C+ A+ F F+ F
0.93 42% 60% 22% -9 0 0.85 32% 1.1 .35 20% .31 63% .19 0.96 45% 50% 14% -14 +1 0.77 36% 0.6 .22 23% .59 83% .50
Jan
1		 Weber St. C F+ F A+ D 45% 16% 39% C+ D+ B- D C B A- F B- B- C- A A B+ 42% 14% 44% C B+ B+ B- B F F B- F
1.13 52% 10% 44% -1 +1 1.02 33% 1.0 .33 14% .40 66% .26 1.07 58% 25% 28% -6 +1 0.93 27% 0.9 .25 12% .56 69% .39
Jan
3		 Idaho St. B+ A+ A+ C+ A+ 45% 17% 38% B- A F+ F F A- A- A A+ D D+ C F F 35% 10% 56% D+ F+ C- A+ A- F+ F A F
1.26 75% 67% 35% +13 +1 1.30 22% 0.5 .11 11% .40 85% .33 1.18 61% 40% 41% +7 +1 1.19 33% 0.7 .24 14% .47 67% .31
Jan
10		 Sacramento St. A- A A+ A+ A+ 50% 9% 41% B A+ A- F F B- C A B- B+ C C- A+ A- 29% 38% 33% A A- A+ A+ A+ F F+ C- F+
1.33 70% 60% 45% +15 +2 1.37 42% 0.5 .23 15% .33 80% .26 0.95 56% 38% 17% -9 -3 0.78 17% 0.6 .10 7% .42 79% .33
Jan
15		 Northern Colorado D C+ A F+ B- 43% 26% 32% D C+ A C+ A F A+ D- A+ B F A+ F F 26% 16% 58% B- D- A+ A+ A+ B F B+ D-
1.05 60% 50% 27% 0 0 1.02 37% 1.2 .43 24% .51 71% .36 1.01 77% 25% 41% +9 0 1.20 13% 0.0 .00 19% .33 68% .22
Jan
17		 Northern Arizona F F+ F D+ F 47% 9% 45% B F B- F+ C- D- A F B- A+ A- C+ F+ B- 40% 26% 35% C+ B- A+ A+ A+ A D C D+
1.02 50% 25% 33% -5 +2 0.96 37% 0.9 .34 19% .38 63% .24 0.84 47% 36% 40% -2 -1 0.98 14% 0.0 .00 21% .31 67% .21
Jan
22		 Eastern Washington F+ C F F F 56% 19% 25% B- F D+ A+ B+ D- F A D- A+ A- A- B+ A+ 42% 29% 29% B- A+ A- D- B- C+ F C F
0.96 59% 22% 17% -9 +2 0.88 29% 1.6 .46 19% .24 85% .20 0.90 47% 31% 31% -8 -1 0.84 24% 1.3 .30 19% .42 74% .31
Jan
24		 Idaho D+ D- A A+ B- 66% 12% 22% A+ A- F F F C F+ D- F A- C A+ B B 47% 11% 42% F+ B- B- A+ A B+ F B+ F
1.03 52% 50% 55% +4 +3 1.16 13% 0.0 .00 15% .28 69% .19 0.98 57% 20% 32% -4 +2 0.98 26% 0.7 .17 19% .46 68% .31
Jan
29		 Montana F F+ C F F 40% 20% 40% C+ F C B- C+ F A+ C A+ B+ F D+ A+ C 44% 29% 27% B+ C+ B- A+ A+ A F D F
0.88 50% 38% 19% -12 0 0.78 30% 1.1 .33 25% .58 70% .41 0.93 78% 42% 18% +3 -1 1.07 20% 0.4 .08 25% .48 80% .39
Jan
31		 Montana St. D B A A+ A+ 44% 23% 33% C- A B+ F F F C- F D A+ A D- A+ A+ 24% 37% 39% A+ A+ F B D A C F D
1.03 63% 50% 43% +9 0 1.21 37% 0.5 .17 23% .25 67% .17 0.88 45% 47% 17% -10 -3 0.76 36% 0.9 .33 21% .27 85% .23
Feb
2		 Idaho St. A+ D- A+ A+ B+ 54% 20% 26% B- B+ C+ A B+ A+ C B- C+ C+ C A+ B+ A 51% 14% 35% D- A- F D+ F A+ F C F
1.42 52% 60% 54% +9 +1 1.22 31% 1.3 .41 6% .33 79% .26 1.05 58% 0% 31% -7 +2 0.92 47% 1.1 .50 24% .58 74% .43
Feb
7		 Sacramento St. D+ F D F F 47% 16% 37% C F A C+ A B A+ B+ A+ C+ A+ A+ F B- 33% 26% 41% C B- A- B+ A- F+ F F+ F
1.08 42% 38% 21% -15 +1 0.75 44% 1.2 .51 15% .45 77% .34 1.07 40% 17% 42% -6 -1 0.87 21% 1.0 .21 12% .50 83% .41
Feb
12		 Northern Arizona B- A- A D+ B+ 61% 16% 24% B B+ F A+ B- F A+ A A+ C C+ F A+ B 32% 16% 52% D+ B- C F F+ F C- F D-
1.22 70% 50% 33% +9 +2 1.24 20% 2.0 .40 21% .54 81% .44 1.08 56% 75% 23% -3 0 0.96 24% 1.4 .32 11% .28 81% .23
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Feb
14		 Northern Colorado
Feb
19		 Idaho C F+ D+ A+ C 28% 34% 38% D- C- B- A+ A C C+ F D+ B B- A+ D B 37% 22% 41% B- B C B- C+ B B+ D B
1.12 50% 35% 42% +1 -2 1.00 29% 1.5 .43 15% .36 67% .24 0.98 53% 18% 38% -4 0 0.94 28% 0.9 .26 19% .23 77% .18
Feb
21		 Eastern Washington F F F F F 51% 18% 31% C+ F F F F A F+ A+ D+ B B+ C- A+ A+ 38% 32% 30% A- A+ B F F+ C F D+ F
0.83 38% 11% 25% -19 +1 0.67 23% 0.8 .19 12% .26 87% .22 1.01 50% 40% 21% -8 -1 0.83 27% 1.6 .42 18% .41 77% .31



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Sky Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 9.8 35.2 39.7 15.3 100.0 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
Total 9.8 35.2 39.7 15.3 Total



Big Sky Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 100.0% 15.3    15.3
14-4 100.0% 39.7    39.7
13-5 100.0% 35.2    35.2
12-6 100.0% 9.8    2.9 5.3 1.6
11-7
10-8
9-9
Total 100.0% 100.0 93.1 5.3 1.6



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 15.3% 30.8% 30.8% 13.3 0.5 2.6 1.6 0.0 10.6
14-4 39.7% 26.0% 26.0% 13.9 0.1 2.6 6.2 1.3 0.0 29.4
13-5 35.2% 22.1% 22.1% 14.2 0.0 0.9 4.4 2.4 0.1 27.4
12-6 9.8% 16.1% 16.1% 14.4 0.1 0.7 0.7 0.0 8.2
11-7
10-8
9-9
8-10
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 24.4% 24.4% 0.0% 13.9 75.6 0.0%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 4.7% 100.0% 13.3 10.1 55.3 33.8 0.9
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 2.8%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 4.6%
Lose Out 3.9%