Portland St.
Big Sky
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
Switch to All-time Team Page
Predictive Rating +0.0 #154
Expected Predictive Rating +0.8 #154
Pace 70.8 #138
Improvement +0.8 #130

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #244 C D+ D- C- B-
Defense #100 B C B- F D

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 43% #69 1.15 #189 +2.5 #104
2 Pt. Jumpers 17% #247 0.61 #333 -2.4 #296
Three Pointers 40% #207 1.03 #155 -0.3 #191
1st FG Attempt 1.01 #184 -0.1 #182
Freethrows 17.7 #165 68% #307 12.0 #219
Second Chance 30.1% #207 0.92 #311 0.28 #270
Turnovers 19.0% #310
Total Offense -2.5 #244

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 44% #44 1.05 #64 -0.8 #208
2 Pt. Jumpers 17% #264 0.67 #84 +1.8 #67
Three Pointers 39% #248 0.94 #93 +2.7 #85
1st FG Attempt 0.94 #71 +3.7 #71
Freethrows 20.5 #323 76% #318 15.6 #36
Second Chance 30.4% #163 1.10 #251 0.33 #217
Turnovers 18.4% #86
Total Defense +2.5 #100

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 1.5% #81 1.6% #305
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -1.9% #206 -8.6% #47
Possession Length 17.7 #215 15.9 #23
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.18 #153 0.20 #265
Improvement +0.2 #170 +0.7 #141

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 19.3% 20.3% 13.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.0 14.0 14.5
.500 or above 80.1% 83.7% 61.3%
.500 or above in Conference 92.1% 94.5% 79.7%
Conference Champion 36.7% 39.8% 20.4%
Last Place in Conference 0.5% 0.2% 2.0%
First Four0.4% 0.3% 0.9%
First Round19.2% 20.2% 13.5%
Second Round0.9% 1.0% 0.5%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Sacramento St. (Home) - 83.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 15 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 20 - 20 - 4
Quad 35 - 45 - 8
Quad 411 - 416 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Tue, Nov 4 79 @Stanford L 79 - 89 16%  -6  0 - 1 +1 +2 A+ F F +0 C+ C A+
 Wed, Nov 12 100 @San Francisco L 70 - 80 22%  -12  0 - 2 -2 +3 D A- F -5 D B- C
 Mon, Nov 17 294 Cal St. Bakersfield W 93 - 80 84%  +7  1 - 2 +3 +11 A+ A F -9 D F A
 Tue, Nov 25 227 @Utah Tech W 68 - 63 52%  +1  2 - 2 +4 -7 F D F +11 B+ A+ C+
 Wed, Dec 3 290 @South Dakota W 77 - 71 66%  +5  3 - 2 +2 -7 D F D+ +9 A+ F A+
 Sat, Dec 6 257 Nebraska Omaha L 55 - 60 79%  -2  3 - 3 -14 -12 F D+ F -2 A+ F B-
 Wed, Dec 17 77 @Colorado L 73 - 84 16%  -1  3 - 4 -0 +1 D+ A+ F -2 B+ B- B
 Sat, Dec 20 176 @Tulane L 61 - 63 43%  -3  3 - 5 -0 -7 F C F +7 A+ C+ A+
 Thu, Jan 1 212 @Weber St. W 95 - 90 OT 50%  +0  4 - 5 1 - 0 +5 +4 C C- C+ -0 B+ A- F
 Sat, Jan 3 187 @Idaho St. W 93 - 87 OT 46%  -5  5 - 5 2 - 0 +7 +14 A+ F A+ -7 D B F
 Sat, Jan 10 296 Sacramento St. W 82 - 71 84% 
 Thu, Jan 15 161 Northern Colorado W 76 - 73 62% 
 Sat, Jan 17 302 Northern Arizona W 75 - 64 84% 
 Thu, Jan 22 255 @Eastern Washington W 78 - 76 59% 
 Sat, Jan 24 195 @Idaho L 71 - 72 47% 
 Thu, Jan 29 178 Montana W 78 - 74 65% 
 Sat, Jan 31 153 Montana St. W 71 - 68 61% 
 Mon, Feb 2 187 Idaho St. W 74 - 69 68% 
 Sat, Feb 7 296 @Sacramento St. W 79 - 74 66% 
 Thu, Feb 12 302 @Northern Arizona W 72 - 67 67% 
 Sat, Feb 14 161 @Northern Colorado L 73 - 76 41% 
 Thu, Feb 19 195 Idaho W 74 - 69 69% 
 Sat, Feb 21 255 Eastern Washington W 81 - 73 78% 
 Thu, Feb 26 153 @Montana St. L 68 - 71 39% 
 Sat, Feb 28 178 @Montana L 75 - 77 44% 
 Mon, Mar 2 212 Weber St. W 78 - 72 70% 
Totals 15 - 11 12 - 6 +0 -3 C D+ D- +3 B C B-




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Sky Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.4 2.8 7.5 10.3 8.6 4.9 2.0 0.3 36.7 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 3.3 7.8 6.7 2.6 0.4 0.0 21.1 2nd
3rd 0.2 2.6 6.5 4.5 1.0 0.1 14.8 3rd
4th 0.1 1.4 5.0 3.5 0.6 0.0 10.6 4th
5th 0.0 0.8 3.1 2.7 0.4 0.0 7.1 5th
6th 0.0 0.4 1.9 2.1 0.3 0.0 4.8 6th
7th 0.2 1.0 1.2 0.3 0.0 2.8 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.7 0.2 1.4 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.6 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 10th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.9 2.2 4.3 7.1 10.9 14.0 15.7 15.2 12.9 9.0 4.9 2.0 0.3 Total



Big Sky Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.3    0.3
17-1 100.0% 2.0    2.0
16-2 99.3% 4.9    4.7 0.1
15-3 95.7% 8.6    7.7 0.9 0.0
14-4 79.6% 10.3    7.3 2.8 0.3
13-5 49.2% 7.5    3.1 3.3 1.0 0.1 0.0
12-6 17.6% 2.8    0.5 1.3 0.8 0.2 0.0
11-7 2.6% 0.4    0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 36.7% 36.7 25.6 8.5 2.2 0.4 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.3% 52.5% 52.5% 11.7 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1
17-1 2.0% 44.1% 44.1% 12.6 0.0 0.4 0.4 0.1 1.1
16-2 4.9% 39.0% 39.0% 13.2 0.0 0.3 1.0 0.6 0.0 3.0
15-3 9.0% 32.8% 32.8% 13.6 0.1 1.1 1.5 0.2 6.1
14-4 12.9% 27.7% 27.7% 13.8 0.0 1.0 2.0 0.5 9.4
13-5 15.2% 22.9% 22.9% 14.1 0.0 0.5 1.9 1.0 0.0 11.7
12-6 15.7% 16.5% 16.5% 14.4 0.2 1.2 1.1 0.0 13.1
11-7 14.0% 13.2% 13.2% 14.8 0.0 0.5 1.2 0.1 12.2
10-8 10.9% 10.1% 10.1% 15.2 0.0 0.8 0.3 9.8
9-9 7.1% 7.6% 7.6% 15.6 0.2 0.3 6.6
8-10 4.3% 4.0% 4.0% 16.0 0.0 0.2 4.1
7-11 2.2% 2.5% 2.5% 16.0 0.1 2.2
6-12 0.9% 2.7% 2.7% 16.0 0.0 0.9
5-13 0.4% 1.3% 1.3% 16.0 0.0 0.4
4-14 0.1% 0.1
3-15 0.0% 0.0
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 19.3% 19.3% 0.0% 14.0 80.7 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.2% 100.0% 11.7 37.5 53.1 9.4