Portland St.
Big Sky
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
Switch to All-time Team Page
Overall
Predictive Rating-3.0#215
Expected Predictive Rating-2.3#208
Pace71.4#97
Improvement+3.0#59

Offense
Total Offense-2.6#242
First Shot-4.4#300
After Offensive Rebound+1.8#81
Layup/Dunks+3.3#72
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.6#272
3 Pt Jumpshots-4.0#301
Freethrows-2.1#303
Improvement-0.9#242

Defense
Total Defense-0.4#184
First Shot+0.3#170
After Offensive Rebounds-0.7#249
Layups/Dunks-0.6#196
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.9#35
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.1#243
Freethrows+0.1#182
Improvement+4.0#22
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 11.6% 13.5% 9.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.4 15.3 15.5
.500 or above 74.2% 86.4% 63.1%
.500 or above in Conference 83.0% 92.8% 74.0%
Conference Champion 2.3% 3.9% 0.8%
Last Place in Conference 0.3% 0.1% 0.6%
First Four2.0% 1.8% 2.2%
First Round10.7% 12.8% 8.8%
Second Round0.2% 0.2% 0.2%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Idaho (Away) - 47.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 0
Quad 20 - 30 - 3
Quad 33 - 63 - 9
Quad 413 - 516 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 103   @ Washington St. L 92-100 17%     0 - 1 -1.0 +10.1 -10.1
  Nov 12, 2024 311   @ San Diego W 85-76 62%     1 - 1 +2.9 -5.3 +6.5
  Nov 22, 2024 133   @ Wisconsin-Milwaukee L 74-91 25%     1 - 2 -12.9 +2.7 -15.5
  Nov 23, 2024 119   St. Thomas L 65-91 30%     1 - 3 -23.6 -11.0 -12.1
  Nov 24, 2024 151   Wofford W 79-74 35%     2 - 3 +5.8 +7.2 -1.2
  Nov 30, 2024 292   Utah Tech W 71-68 74%     3 - 3 -6.6 -3.9 -2.5
  Dec 04, 2024 162   @ Seattle L 74-91 29%     3 - 4 -14.3 +6.3 -21.2
  Dec 07, 2024 331   Denver L 67-68 83%     3 - 5 -14.1 -4.2 -10.1
  Dec 18, 2024 302   @ Pacific W 81-75 60%     4 - 5 +0.5 +0.6 -0.4
  Dec 21, 2024 258   @ Cal St. Bakersfield W 59-58 50%     5 - 5 -2.1 -15.5 +13.4
  Jan 04, 2025 337   @ Sacramento St. L 53-56 72%     5 - 6 0 - 1 -12.0 -13.6 +1.1
  Jan 09, 2025 252   Eastern Washington W 64-59 68%     6 - 6 1 - 1 -2.8 -13.1 +10.2
  Jan 11, 2025 249   Idaho W 75-63 67%     7 - 6 2 - 1 +4.3 -0.3 +5.5
  Jan 16, 2025 154   @ Northern Colorado L 69-72 28%     7 - 7 2 - 2 +0.1 -2.4 +2.4
  Jan 18, 2025 250   @ Northern Arizona W 80-69 49%     8 - 7 3 - 2 +8.2 +10.3 -1.5
  Jan 23, 2025 286   Weber St. W 74-56 73%     9 - 7 4 - 2 +8.7 +1.4 +8.8
  Jan 25, 2025 234   Idaho St. W 76-59 64%     10 - 7 5 - 2 +10.3 +0.9 +9.8
  Jan 30, 2025 207   @ Montana L 78-92 38%     10 - 8 5 - 3 -13.8 +7.9 -22.5
  Feb 01, 2025 189   @ Montana St. L 73-74 34%     10 - 9 5 - 4 +0.1 +4.7 -4.7
  Feb 06, 2025 249   @ Idaho L 74-75 48%    
  Feb 08, 2025 252   @ Eastern Washington L 73-74 48%    
  Feb 13, 2025 250   Northern Arizona W 76-71 69%    
  Feb 15, 2025 154   Northern Colorado L 77-78 47%    
  Feb 20, 2025 234   @ Idaho St. L 70-71 43%    
  Feb 22, 2025 286   @ Weber St. W 72-71 52%    
  Feb 27, 2025 189   Montana St. W 72-71 55%    
  Mar 01, 2025 207   Montana W 76-74 58%    
  Mar 03, 2025 337   Sacramento St. W 73-62 86%    
Projected Record 15 - 13 10 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Sky Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.6 1.1 0.7 2.3 1st
2nd 0.7 5.2 7.7 3.6 0.3 17.4 2nd
3rd 1.2 10.3 13.8 4.6 0.4 0.0 30.3 3rd
4th 0.4 7.5 10.7 2.0 0.1 20.7 4th
5th 0.0 3.1 8.3 2.0 0.0 13.4 5th
6th 0.0 0.6 5.3 2.2 0.0 8.2 6th
7th 0.1 2.2 2.4 0.1 4.7 7th
8th 0.0 0.5 1.6 0.2 2.3 8th
9th 0.1 0.4 0.2 0.7 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.1 10th
Total 0.1 1.0 4.6 11.3 19.3 23.7 21.0 12.9 5.0 1.0 Total



Big Sky Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 65.0% 0.7    0.3 0.3 0.0
13-5 21.3% 1.1    0.2 0.7 0.2
12-6 4.3% 0.6    0.0 0.3 0.2 0.1
11-7 0.2% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 2.3% 2.3 0.6 1.3 0.4 0.1



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 1.0% 23.0% 23.0% 13.5 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.8
13-5 5.0% 25.4% 25.4% 14.7 0.0 0.4 0.8 0.1 3.8
12-6 12.9% 16.6% 16.6% 15.2 0.2 1.3 0.6 10.8
11-7 21.0% 13.9% 13.9% 15.5 0.1 1.3 1.6 18.1
10-8 23.7% 11.0% 11.0% 15.7 0.0 0.8 1.8 21.1
9-9 19.3% 8.1% 8.1% 15.8 0.3 1.3 17.7
8-10 11.3% 5.2% 5.2% 15.9 0.1 0.5 10.7
7-11 4.6% 4.1% 4.1% 16.0 0.2 4.4
6-12 1.0% 3.0% 3.0% 16.0 0.0 1.0
5-13 0.1% 0.1
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 11.6% 11.6% 0.0% 15.4 0.0 0.1 0.8 4.5 6.1 88.5 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.2% 100.0% 13.5 13.0 30.4 52.2 4.3
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.2%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.3%