Sacramento St.
Big Sky
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -7.6 #296
Expected Predictive Rating -12.1 #331
Pace 79.3 #15
Improvement -2.0 #288

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #289 F B- C- C D-
Defense #271 C- D+ C- D+ D-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 36% #261 0.96 #349 -5.3 #332
2 Pt. Jumpers 28% #42 0.72 #221 +2.7 #59
Three Pointers 36% #288 0.81 #349 -6.2 #341
1st FG Attempt 0.84 #360 -8.9 #360
Freethrows 17.7 #166 73% #181 12.8 #168
Second Chance 30.3% #198 1.21 #28 0.37 #87
Turnovers 17.3% #224
Total Offense -4.4 #289

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 42% #89 1.10 #113 -0.9 #212
2 Pt. Jumpers 15% #334 0.93 #353 +0.9 #132
Three Pointers 43% #118 1.02 #196 -1.3 #233
1st FG Attempt 1.04 #223 -1.3 #222
Freethrows 19.2 #276 74% #240 14.1 #72
Second Chance 31.7% #220 1.13 #289 0.36 #269
Turnovers 15.9% #221
Total Defense -3.2 #271

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -2.5% #323 2.0% #340
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -15.4% #357 0.6% #190
Possession Length 15.5 #40 16.5 #68
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.19 #131 0.21 #300
Improvement -0.1 #190 -2.0 #298

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 1.4% 2.4% 1.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.9 15.9 16.0
.500 or above 0.5% 1.9% 0.2%
.500 or above in Conference 10.8% 25.3% 8.1%
Conference Champion 0.4% 1.7% 0.2%
Last Place in Conference 38.4% 21.4% 41.7%
First Four1.2% 1.8% 1.1%
First Round0.9% 1.6% 0.7%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Portland St. (Away) - 16.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 3
Quad 20 - 20 - 5
Quad 31 - 101 - 15
Quad 46 - 77 - 22


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Tue, Nov 11 181 UC Santa Barbara L 87 - 92 38%  -6  0 - 1 -9 +5 B+ C C -14 D+ C- F
 Fri, Nov 14 171 @UC Davis L 73 - 77 18%  +2  0 - 2 -2 -2 F B- D +1 A+ D C
 Sun, Nov 16 289 Presbyterian W 64 - 62 60%  -4  1 - 2 -8 -9 F A+ F +1 B+ A F
 Tue, Nov 18 38 @UCLA L 48 - 79 2%  -19  1 - 3 -15 -19 F C- B +4 A- F A+
 Fri, Nov 21 84 @California L 67 - 91 6%  -18  1 - 4 -14 -5 F B- B+ -7 F B- B
 Sat, Nov 29 144 @Pacific L 54 - 68 14%  -6  1 - 5 -10 -18 F D C- +8 B- B+ B+
 Tue, Dec 2 32 @Baylor L 88 - 110 2%  -7  1 - 6 -5 +15 F A+ D+ -18 F F A-
 Sat, Dec 20 147 @California Baptist L 67 - 74 14%  -2  1 - 7 -3 -1 F A+ D+ -3 A+ F C+
 Mon, Dec 22 211 @Cal St. Northridge L 88 - 100 22%  -4  1 - 8 -12 +2 D- F A+ -12 F A+ F
 Thu, Jan 1 187 @Idaho St. L 84 - 97 21%  -10  1 - 9 0 - 1 -12 -2 F B+ C- -8 F B- F
 Sat, Jan 3 212 @Weber St. L 82 - 95 23%  -10  1 - 10 0 - 2 -13 -0 B- F F -12 D- F C
 Sat, Jan 10 154 @Portland St. L 71 - 82 16% 
 Thu, Jan 15 302 Northern Arizona W 77 - 74 62% 
 Sat, Jan 17 161 Northern Colorado L 79 - 83 35% 
 Thu, Jan 22 195 @Idaho L 74 - 82 22% 
 Sat, Jan 24 255 @Eastern Washington L 81 - 86 32% 
 Thu, Jan 29 153 Montana St. L 73 - 78 33% 
 Sat, Jan 31 178 Montana L 81 - 84 38% 
 Mon, Feb 2 212 Weber St. L 80 - 82 44% 
 Sat, Feb 7 154 Portland St. L 74 - 79 34% 
 Thu, Feb 12 161 @Northern Colorado L 76 - 86 17% 
 Sat, Feb 14 302 @Northern Arizona L 74 - 77 40% 
 Thu, Feb 19 255 Eastern Washington W 84 - 83 53% 
 Sat, Feb 21 195 Idaho L 77 - 79 41% 
 Thu, Feb 26 178 @Montana L 78 - 87 20% 
 Sat, Feb 28 153 @Montana St. L 70 - 81 17% 
 Mon, Mar 2 187 Idaho St. L 76 - 79 40% 
Totals 6 - 21 5 - 13 -8 -4 F B- C- -3 C- D+ C-




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Sky Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.4 1st
2nd 0.1 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.8 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 0.8 0.7 0.1 0.0 1.7 3rd
4th 0.1 1.0 1.4 0.2 0.0 2.8 4th
5th 0.1 1.3 2.4 0.8 0.0 4.6 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 1.6 3.5 1.7 0.1 7.2 6th
7th 0.0 0.3 2.6 5.3 2.9 0.3 11.4 7th
8th 0.1 0.9 4.5 8.0 4.5 0.6 0.0 18.6 8th
9th 0.0 0.6 3.0 7.5 9.1 4.7 0.7 0.0 25.6 9th
10th 0.6 2.8 6.3 8.2 6.2 2.6 0.4 0.0 27.0 10th
Total 0.6 2.8 6.9 11.2 14.7 16.5 15.9 12.2 8.4 5.6 3.2 1.3 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 Total



Big Sky Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 100.0% 0.0    0.0
14-4 100.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
13-5 80.0% 0.2    0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-6 29.1% 0.1    0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 4.5% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.4% 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 0.0% 0.0
14-4 0.0% 0.0
13-5 0.2% 17.8% 17.8% 15.1 0.0 0.0 0.2
12-6 0.4% 15.1% 15.1% 15.4 0.0 0.0 0.4
11-7 1.3% 7.5% 7.5% 16.0 0.0 0.1 1.2
10-8 3.2% 5.8% 5.8% 16.0 0.2 3.0
9-9 5.6% 4.1% 4.1% 16.0 0.2 5.4
8-10 8.4% 2.6% 2.6% 16.0 0.2 8.2
7-11 12.2% 1.3% 1.3% 16.0 0.2 12.0
6-12 15.9% 1.0% 1.0% 16.0 0.2 15.7
5-13 16.5% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.1 16.4
4-14 14.7% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.1 14.6
3-15 11.2% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 11.2
2-16 6.9% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 6.9
1-17 2.8% 2.8
0-18 0.6% 0.6
Total 100% 1.4% 1.4% 0.0% 15.9 98.6 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.4%