Sacramento St.
Big Sky
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -6.3 #274
Expected Predictive Rating -5.4 #251
Pace 76.4 #24
Improvement +1.7 #114

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #233 D- C C+ B- D
Defense #294 D+ D+ C C D-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 35% #293 1.04 #311 -4.5 #328
2 Pt. Jumpers 28% #49 0.69 #297 +1.9 #84
Three Pointers 38% #250 0.92 #296 -3.5 #303
1st FG Attempt 0.90 #337 -6.1 #337
Freethrows 0.32 #127 77% #33 0.25 #84
Second Chance 27.8% #261 1.18 #29 0.33 #140
Turnovers 15.7% #123
Total Offense -2.3 #233

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 43% #67 1.14 #156 -2.2 #253
2 Pt. Jumpers 14% #351 0.93 #360 +1.4 #80
Three Pointers 43% #104 1.04 #218 -1.6 #260
1st FG Attempt 1.07 #266 -2.4 #267
Freethrows 0.31 #204 73% #234 0.22 #216
Second Chance 33.4% #294 1.09 #280 0.37 #305
Turnovers 16.4% #199
Total Defense -4.0 #294

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -2.4% #320 2.3% #353
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -9.7% #330 2.4% #224
Possession Length 16.2 #72 16.3 #41
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.20 #103 0.20 #266
Improvement +3.2 #43 -1.5 #267

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 2.4% 3.0% 1.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 15.9 16.0
.500 or above 0.3% 0.5% 0.1%
.500 or above in Conference 25.4% 37.8% 12.9%
Conference Champion 0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Last Place in Conference 6.8% 2.6% 11.0%
First Four2.0% 2.4% 1.7%
First Round1.5% 1.9% 1.1%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Weber St. (Home) - 50.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 3
Quad 20 - 30 - 6
Quad 33 - 103 - 16
Quad 46 - 39 - 20


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Tue, Nov 11 130 UC Santa Barbara L 87 - 92 31% -6  0 - 1 -6 +7 B C+ C+ -13 C- C- F
 Fri, Nov 14 189 @UC Davis L 73 - 77 24% +2  0 - 2 -3 -2 F+ C+ D+ -1 B+ D C
 Sun, Nov 16 262 Presbyterian W 64 - 62 60% -4  1 - 2 -7 -9 F+ A F +3 A B+ D
 Tue, Nov 18 35 @UCLA L 48 - 79 3% -19  1 - 3 -14 -17 F C B- +4 B F A+
 Fri, Nov 21 64 @California L 67 - 91 6% -18  1 - 4 -12 -4 F B B- -7 F B- B-
 Sat, Nov 29 125 @Pacific L 54 - 68 14% -6  1 - 5 -9 -17 F D+ C +9 B- B+ B
 Tue, Dec 2 47 @Baylor L 88 - 110 4% -7  1 - 6 -7 +14 F+ A+ C- -19 F F B-
 Sat, Dec 20 134 @California Baptist L 67 - 74 15% -2  1 - 7 -2 +0 F A+ C- -3 A+ F B-
 Mon, Dec 22 187 @Cal St. Northridge L 88 - 100 24% -4  1 - 8 -11 +4 D D- A+ -13 F A+ F
 Thu, Jan 1 227 @Idaho St. L 84 - 97 29% -10  1 - 9 0 - 1 -14 -2 F B- C+ -10 D- C- F
 Sat, Jan 3 221 @Weber St. L 82 - 95 28% -10  1 - 10 0 - 2 -13 -0 C+ D- F+ -12 D F+ C-
 Sat, Jan 10 149 @Portland St. L 69 - 96 17% -14  1 - 11 0 - 3 -23 +0 F+ F A+ -23 F B- F+
 Thu, Jan 15 313 Northern Arizona W 83 - 69 71% +1  2 - 11 1 - 3 +2 +6 D- A+ A+ -4 D+ B- B
 Sat, Jan 17 190 Northern Colorado W 93 - 89 OT 45% -7  3 - 11 2 - 3 -1 +4 C- C+ B+ -6 D+ B C
 Thu, Jan 22 185 @Idaho L 76 - 86 23% -7  3 - 12 2 - 4 -9 +1 F A+ B -10 F B- C+
 Sat, Jan 24 245 @Eastern Washington L 67 - 75 33% -7  3 - 13 2 - 5 -10 -3 F D+ D -7 B+ F D-
 Thu, Jan 29 166 Montana St. W 83 - 80 39% +3  4 - 13 3 - 5 -0 +6 A+ F C -7 C D+ B-
 Sat, Jan 31 158 Montana W 86 - 79 38% +8  5 - 13 4 - 5 +4 +10 A+ F B- -6 B F B
 Mon, Feb 2 221 Weber St. W 83 - 82 50%
 Sat, Feb 7 149 Portland St. L 73 - 77 36%
 Thu, Feb 12 190 @Northern Colorado L 78 - 85 25%
 Sat, Feb 14 313 @Northern Arizona L 77 - 78 49%
 Thu, Feb 19 245 Eastern Washington W 82 - 81 54%
 Sat, Feb 21 185 Idaho L 78 - 80 43%
 Thu, Feb 26 158 @Montana L 75 - 84 19%
 Sat, Feb 28 166 @Montana St. L 72 - 81 20%
 Mon, Mar 2 227 Idaho St. W 78 - 77 51%
Totals 8 - 19 7 - 11 -6 -2 D- C C+ -4 D+ D+ C




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Sky Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 1st
2nd 0.1 0.5 0.3 0.0 0.9 2nd
3rd 0.2 1.7 1.3 0.1 3.2 3rd
4th 0.3 4.0 3.7 0.5 0.0 8.5 4th
5th 0.2 4.8 7.9 1.6 0.0 14.5 5th
6th 0.1 4.4 11.6 3.1 0.0 19.1 6th
7th 0.0 2.6 11.3 5.5 0.3 19.6 7th
8th 1.4 8.7 7.2 0.6 17.9 8th
9th 1.0 6.0 6.2 0.8 0.0 14.0 9th
10th 0.9 0.9 0.2 2.0 10th
Total 1.9 8.4 17.8 23.8 22.7 15.4 7.2 2.2 0.5 0.0 Total



Big Sky Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 33.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0
12-6 15.0% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 1.6% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.1% 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 0.0% 0.0
12-6 0.5% 5.0% 5.0% 15.4 0.0 0.0 0.5
11-7 2.2% 8.9% 8.9% 15.7 0.1 0.1 2.0
10-8 7.2% 6.9% 6.9% 16.0 0.0 0.5 6.7
9-9 15.4% 4.3% 4.3% 16.0 0.7 14.8
8-10 22.7% 2.3% 2.3% 16.0 0.5 22.2
7-11 23.8% 1.2% 1.2% 16.0 0.3 23.5
6-12 17.8% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.1 17.6
5-13 8.4% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.1 8.3
4-14 1.9% 1.9
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 2.4% 2.4% 0.0% 16.0 97.6 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 1.1%