Sacramento St.
Big Sky
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-11.7#346
Expected Predictive Rating-15.6#351
Pace62.0#341
Improvement-2.3#285

Offense
Total Offense-9.0#356
First Shot-7.1#344
After Offensive Rebound-1.8#291
Layup/Dunks-2.6#279
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.6#320
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.6#160
Freethrows-2.5#319
Improvement-1.4#266

Defense
Total Defense-2.7#259
First Shot-1.6#227
After Offensive Rebounds-1.1#271
Layups/Dunks+2.7#79
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.3#222
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.7#316
Freethrows-0.4#217
Improvement-0.8#230
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.3% 0.6% 0.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 2.2% 6.5% 1.2%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 75.9% 50.9% 81.9%
First Four0.3% 0.6% 0.2%
First Round0.2% 0.4% 0.1%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Northern Arizona (Away) - 19.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 20 - 20 - 3
Quad 31 - 61 - 10
Quad 45 - 146 - 24


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 08, 2024 263   @ Fresno St. L 57-64 20%     0 - 1 -9.6 -14.5 +4.8
  Nov 12, 2024 77   @ UC San Diego L 54-64 3%     0 - 2 +0.2 -6.8 +5.8
  Nov 16, 2024 153   Cal St. Northridge L 69-79 20%     0 - 3 -12.6 -4.2 -8.5
  Nov 24, 2024 123   @ California L 77-83 7%     0 - 4 -0.6 +2.1 -2.6
  Nov 27, 2024 287   @ Air Force W 63-61 23%     1 - 4 -2.0 -5.2 +3.4
  Nov 30, 2024 359   Mercyhurst L 60-66 73%     1 - 5 -24.1 -13.2 -11.6
  Dec 04, 2024 337   @ Denver L 59-80 36%     1 - 6 -29.0 -12.6 -18.7
  Dec 07, 2024 234   Nebraska Omaha L 60-70 32%     1 - 7 -16.9 -14.3 -3.2
  Dec 14, 2024 249   UC Davis L 62-69 36%     1 - 8 -15.0 -7.8 -7.4
  Dec 17, 2024 75   @ Oregon St. L 45-82 3%     1 - 9 -26.8 -21.4 -7.0
  Jan 04, 2025 248   Portland St. W 56-53 36%     2 - 9 1 - 0 -4.9 -9.9 +5.5
  Jan 09, 2025 253   Idaho L 67-80 37%     2 - 10 1 - 1 -21.2 -3.6 -19.4
  Jan 11, 2025 252   Eastern Washington L 54-65 37%     2 - 11 1 - 2 -19.2 -20.5 +0.6
  Jan 16, 2025 264   @ Northern Arizona L 62-71 19%    
  Jan 18, 2025 149   @ Northern Colorado L 63-78 7%    
  Jan 23, 2025 246   Idaho St. L 60-64 35%    
  Jan 25, 2025 217   Weber St. L 63-69 30%    
  Jan 30, 2025 190   @ Montana St. L 58-71 11%    
  Feb 01, 2025 213   @ Montana L 61-73 13%    
  Feb 06, 2025 252   @ Eastern Washington L 63-72 18%    
  Feb 08, 2025 253   @ Idaho L 62-71 19%    
  Feb 13, 2025 149   Northern Colorado L 66-75 20%    
  Feb 15, 2025 264   Northern Arizona L 65-68 40%    
  Feb 20, 2025 217   @ Weber St. L 60-72 14%    
  Feb 22, 2025 246   @ Idaho St. L 57-67 19%    
  Feb 27, 2025 213   Montana L 64-70 30%    
  Mar 01, 2025 190   Montana St. L 61-68 26%    
  Mar 03, 2025 248   @ Portland St. L 61-71 19%    
Projected Record 5 - 23 4 - 14




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Sky Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.2 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.3 3rd
4th 0.1 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.8 4th
5th 0.1 0.7 0.6 0.0 1.4 5th
6th 0.0 1.0 1.3 0.3 2.6 6th
7th 0.0 1.1 2.6 0.8 0.0 4.6 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 1.6 4.3 2.3 0.2 8.5 8th
9th 0.0 1.0 4.1 7.7 4.9 0.6 18.3 9th
10th 5.3 13.8 19.8 16.0 7.1 1.2 0.0 63.3 10th
Total 5.3 13.8 20.9 20.3 16.4 11.5 6.5 3.1 1.5 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 Total



Big Sky Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 100.0% 0.0    0.0
12-6 40.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
11-7 1.7% 0.0    0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 0.0% 0.0
12-6 0.1% 36.0% 36.0% 16.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.2% 1.7% 1.7% 16.0 0.0 0.2
10-8 0.4% 5.8% 5.8% 16.0 0.0 0.4
9-9 1.5% 2.7% 2.7% 16.0 0.0 1.4
8-10 3.1% 1.6% 1.6% 16.0 0.1 3.1
7-11 6.5% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.0 6.5
6-12 11.5% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 11.5
5-13 16.4% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 16.4
4-14 20.3% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.1 20.2
3-15 20.9% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 20.8
2-16 13.8% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 13.8
1-17 5.3% 5.3
0-18
Total 100% 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% 16.0 0.3 99.7 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 4.1%