Stephen F. Austin
Southland
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +4.3 #105
Expected Predictive Rating +6.9 #80
Pace 66.1 #253
Improvement +0.1 #182

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #141 C- C+ A- F D
Defense #79 B- C C- C C

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 33% #328 1.07 #282 -4.9 #334
2 Pt. Jumpers 27% #61 0.78 #134 +2.8 #56
Three Pointers 41% #192 1.08 #90 +1.0 #140
1st FG Attempt 1.00 #205 -1.1 #206
Freethrows 0.22 #360 65% #359 0.14 #363
Second Chance 33.2% #107 1.00 #210 0.33 #130
Turnovers 13.1% #18
Total Offense +0.8 #141

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 42% #102 1.05 #56 +0.3 #167
2 Pt. Jumpers 22% #102 0.79 #245 -1.2 #277
Three Pointers 36% #323 0.92 #59 +4.4 #27
1st FG Attempt 0.95 #65 +3.6 #65
Freethrows 0.29 #164 72% #180 0.21 #161
Second Chance 29.9% #149 1.05 #224 0.31 #178
Turnovers 15.8% #230
Total Defense +3.5 #79

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -2.5% #321 0.0% #167
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 0.4% #166 -7.0% #58
Possession Length 17.8 #232 17.5 #240
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.08 #361 0.15 #104
Improvement -0.7 #219 +0.8 #139

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 35.1% 37.7% 32.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 12.5 12.4 12.7
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 67.8% 89.6% 43.4%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round35.1% 37.7% 32.0%
Second Round3.4% 4.1% 2.6%
Sweet Sixteen0.4% 0.5% 0.3%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: McNeese St. (Home) - 52.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 21 - 21 - 3
Quad 36 - 26 - 5
Quad 419 - 125 - 6


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Fri, Nov 7 168 Arkansas St. W 90 - 65 78% +16  1 - 0 +21 +10 C- A+ F+ +10 A+ A- C-
 Tue, Nov 11 233 @Rice W 81 - 69 70% +8  2 - 0 +11 +9 B- C B +3 B A F
 Fri, Nov 14 267 Abilene Christian W 76 - 66 89% +1  3 - 0 +1 +4 C- D A+ -2 B B F+
 Tue, Nov 18 146 @Fresno St. L 78 - 80 52% +1  3 - 1 +2 +13 C+ A+ B -11 F D- C
 Fri, Nov 21 283 @Pepperdine W 63 - 60 78% -3  4 - 1 -1 -7 F+ A B- +6 B- C B+
 Sat, Nov 29 163 @Texas Arlington L 61 - 66 56% +3  4 - 2 -2 +1 D+ C+ B- -4 D+ B- C
 Wed, Dec 3 181 UT Rio Grande Valley W 73 - 60 80% +8  5 - 2 1 - 0 +8 +1 D- C A+ +8 A+ A F
 Sun, Dec 7 360 Louisiana Monroe W 96 - 76 97% +11  6 - 2 +2 +11 A- D+ A+ -9 A- F F
 Wed, Dec 17 196 TX A&M Corpus Christi W 69 - 60 82% +1  7 - 2 2 - 0 +4 +3 C+ C A- +1 C+ D C+
 Mon, Dec 29 311 @East Texas A&M W 75 - 48 83% +6  8 - 2 3 - 0 +21 +8 D+ C+ A- +15 B- A+ B+
 Wed, Dec 31 270 @Northwestern St. W 74 - 64 76% +7  9 - 2 4 - 0 +7 +3 D+ F B+ +4 B+ B+ F
 Sat, Jan 3 271 @SE Louisiana W 73 - 63 76% +8  10 - 2 5 - 0 +7 +6 D C+ B +2 B- F+ C
 Mon, Jan 5 85 @McNeese St. L 64 - 66 30% +2  10 - 3 5 - 1 +8 +5 C- B+ C +3 C A+ D+
 Sat, Jan 10 297 Houston Christian W 85 - 67 91% +15  11 - 3 6 - 1 +7 +15 C- B A+ -6 D- C A-
 Mon, Jan 12 248 Incarnate Word W 56 - 46 87% +7  12 - 3 7 - 1 +2 -19 F C C+ +22 A+ A+ B+
 Sat, Jan 17 218 @New Orleans W 84 - 79 67% +1  13 - 3 8 - 1 +5 +11 A- F A+ -6 D- D C-
 Mon, Jan 19 249 @Nicholls St. W 79 - 62 73% +16  14 - 3 9 - 1 +15 +11 B+ F B- +5 A+ D- C-
 Sat, Jan 24 197 @Lamar W 88 - 81 64% +4  15 - 3 10 - 1 +8 +21 A+ D- A+ -13 D F C
 Tue, Jan 27 270 Northwestern St. W 69 - 67 89% +8  16 - 3 11 - 1 -7 -11 F D+ B+ +4 A+ D- D-
 Sat, Jan 31 271 SE Louisiana W 85 - 58 89% +21  17 - 3 12 - 1 +18 +24 A+ A+ A+ -2 C+ F B+
 Mon, Feb 2 85 McNeese St. W 71 - 70 53%
 Sat, Feb 7 197 Lamar W 73 - 63 82%
 Mon, Feb 9 311 East Texas A&M W 78 - 62 94%
 Sat, Feb 14 181 @UT Rio Grande Valley W 72 - 69 61%
 Mon, Feb 16 196 @TX A&M Corpus Christi W 69 - 65 63%
 Sat, Feb 21 249 Nicholls St. W 78 - 66 87%
 Mon, Feb 23 218 New Orleans W 81 - 70 84%
 Sat, Feb 28 297 @Houston Christian W 75 - 66 80%
 Mon, Mar 2 248 @Incarnate Word W 74 - 68 72%
Totals 24 - 5 19 - 3 +4 +1 C- C+ A- +3 B- C C-




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southland Finish

0-22 1-21 2-20 3-19 4-18 5-17 6-16 7-15 8-14 9-13 10-12 11-11 12-10 13-9 14-8 15-7 16-6 17-5 18-4 19-3 20-2 21-1 22-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 1.9 10.3 23.8 22.6 8.9 67.8 1st
2nd 0.1 0.9 4.1 9.9 12.2 4.7 32.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 3rd
4th 0.0 0.0 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
Total 0.0 0.2 1.1 4.4 11.8 22.5 28.5 22.6 8.9 Total



Southland Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
22-0
21-1 100.0% 8.9    8.9
20-2 100.0% 22.6    20.5 2.1
19-3 83.6% 23.8    14.6 9.3
18-4 45.7% 10.3    4.4 5.9
17-5 16.0% 1.9    0.5 1.3 0.0
16-6 5.1% 0.2    0.0 0.2 0.0
15-7 1.4% 0.0    0.0 0.0
14-8 0.0%
13-9 0.0%
12-10
11-11
Total 67.8% 67.8 48.9 18.8 0.1



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
22-0
21-1 8.9% 43.9% 43.9% 11.8 1.0 2.8 0.2 5.0
20-2 22.6% 41.8% 41.8% 12.3 0.4 5.7 3.2 0.1 13.2
19-3 28.5% 36.2% 36.2% 12.6 0.1 4.5 5.3 0.5 0.0 18.2
18-4 22.5% 30.5% 30.5% 12.8 0.0 2.0 4.1 0.8 0.0 15.6
17-5 11.8% 27.5% 27.5% 13.0 0.6 2.0 0.6 0.0 8.5
16-6 4.4% 23.0% 23.0% 13.2 0.1 0.6 0.3 3.4
15-7 1.1% 19.8% 19.8% 13.7 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.9
14-8 0.2% 11.1% 11.1% 14.0 0.0 0.0 0.2
13-9 0.0% 0.0
12-10
11-11
10-12
9-13
8-14
7-15
6-16
5-17
4-18
3-19
2-20
1-21
0-22
Total 100% 35.1% 35.1% 0.0% 12.5 64.9 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 3.9% 100.0% 11.8 24.6 70.2 5.2
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 3.2%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 1.8%