Stephen F. Austin
Southland
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +3.9 #112
Expected Predictive Rating +4.7 #102
Pace 65.8 #273
Improvement -0.8 #228

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #151 C- B- A- F D-
Defense #78 B B- D C- C

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 34% #302 1.02 #324 -5.0 #327
2 Pt. Jumpers 26% #67 0.81 #105 +3.0 #52
Three Pointers 39% #214 1.05 #134 -0.1 #184
1st FG Attempt 0.97 #232 -2.0 #231
Freethrows 12.1 #356 65% #345 7.9 #363
Second Chance 33.9% #92 1.08 #138 0.37 #89
Turnovers 13.9% #36
Total Offense +0.4 #151

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 43% #68 1.03 #47 +0.1 #177
2 Pt. Jumpers 22% #114 0.76 #197 -0.8 #242
Three Pointers 35% #331 0.95 #116 +4.3 #40
1st FG Attempt 0.95 #76 +3.5 #76
Freethrows 18.9 #264 70% #92 13.3 #139
Second Chance 28.7% #107 1.00 #127 0.29 #102
Turnovers 14.8% #288
Total Defense +3.5 #78

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -2.2% #304 0.2% #182
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -1.9% #204 -7.0% #66
Possession Length 17.9 #241 18.0 #299
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.08 #364 0.17 #170
Improvement -2.0 #300 +1.2 #99

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 29.6% 30.3% 21.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 12.9 12.9 13.3
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 99.8%
.500 or above in Conference 99.8% 99.9% 98.7%
Conference Champion 41.4% 43.3% 19.8%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round29.6% 30.3% 21.5%
Second Round3.0% 3.2% 1.6%
Sweet Sixteen0.5% 0.5% 0.4%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Houston Christian (Home) - 92.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 0
Quad 20 - 20 - 2
Quad 36 - 47 - 6
Quad 417 - 123 - 8


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Fri, Nov 7 126 Arkansas St. W 90 - 65 68%  +16  1 - 0 +24 +11 C A+ F +11 A+ A+ C
 Tue, Nov 11 245 @Rice W 81 - 69 71%  +8  2 - 0 +10 +10 B C+ B +1 B C F
 Fri, Nov 14 202 Abilene Christian W 76 - 66 81%  +1  3 - 0 +5 +5 C D+ A+ -0 A- A- F
 Tue, Nov 18 157 @Fresno St. L 78 - 80 54%  +1  3 - 1 +1 +11 C A+ B -10 F D C
 Fri, Nov 21 274 @Pepperdine W 63 - 60 76%  -3  4 - 1 -1 -6 F A+ B +6 B- C A-
 Sat, Nov 29 156 @Texas Arlington L 61 - 66 54%  +3  4 - 2 -2 +1 D B- B -4 C- B- C
 Wed, Dec 3 220 UT Rio Grande Valley W 73 - 60 83%  +8  5 - 2 1 - 0 +7 +0 F C- A+ +7 A+ A+ F
 Sun, Dec 7 356 Louisiana Monroe W 96 - 76 96%  +11  6 - 2 +3 +10 A- F A+ -7 A+ F F
 Wed, Dec 17 183 TX A&M Corpus Christi W 69 - 60 79%  +1  7 - 2 2 - 0 +4 +3 B- C+ B+ +2 C+ C- B-
 Mon, Dec 29 324 @East Texas A&M W 75 - 48 85%  +6  8 - 2 3 - 0 +20 +7 D- B- A +15 B A+ B
 Wed, Dec 31 288 @Northwestern St. W 74 - 64 78%  +7  9 - 2 4 - 0 +6 +3 D F A- +4 B+ B+ F
 Sat, Jan 3 260 @SE Louisiana W 73 - 63 74%  +8  10 - 2 5 - 0 +7 +5 D C+ B- +3 C+ F C+
 Mon, Jan 5 87 @McNeese St. L 64 - 66 29%  +2  10 - 3 5 - 1 +8 +5 C B- D+ +2 B- A+ D
 Sat, Jan 10 300 Houston Christian W 76 - 61 92% 
 Mon, Jan 12 165 Incarnate Word W 74 - 66 77% 
 Sat, Jan 17 236 @New Orleans W 77 - 72 68% 
 Mon, Jan 19 215 @Nicholls St. W 73 - 69 65% 
 Sat, Jan 24 231 @Lamar W 68 - 63 68% 
 Mon, Jan 26 288 Northwestern St. W 76 - 62 90% 
 Sat, Jan 31 260 SE Louisiana W 73 - 60 88% 
 Mon, Feb 2 87 McNeese St. W 71 - 70 52% 
 Sat, Feb 7 231 Lamar W 71 - 60 84% 
 Mon, Feb 9 324 East Texas A&M W 79 - 62 95% 
 Sat, Feb 14 220 @UT Rio Grande Valley W 72 - 68 65% 
 Mon, Feb 16 183 @TX A&M Corpus Christi W 69 - 66 60% 
 Sat, Feb 21 215 Nicholls St. W 76 - 66 81% 
 Mon, Feb 23 236 New Orleans W 80 - 69 84% 
 Sat, Feb 28 300 @Houston Christian W 73 - 64 79% 
 Mon, Mar 2 165 @Incarnate Word W 71 - 69 55% 
Totals 22 - 7 17 - 5 +4 +0 C- B- A- +3 B B- D




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southland Finish

0-22 1-21 2-20 3-19 4-18 5-17 6-16 7-15 8-14 9-13 10-12 11-11 12-10 13-9 14-8 15-7 16-6 17-5 18-4 19-3 20-2 21-1 22-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 1.9 6.0 11.1 12.0 7.7 2.3 41.4 1st
2nd 0.2 1.4 5.7 11.1 12.0 8.3 2.5 0.1 41.2 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 0.9 2.9 4.0 2.3 0.7 0.1 11.0 3rd
4th 0.1 0.4 1.2 1.5 0.6 0.1 0.0 3.9 4th
5th 0.0 0.1 0.7 0.6 0.2 0.0 1.7 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.6 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 11th
12th 12th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.4 3.0 6.0 10.6 15.5 18.7 19.4 14.5 7.8 2.3 Total



Southland Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
22-0
21-1 100.0% 2.3    2.3
20-2 98.4% 7.7    6.9 0.9
19-3 83.0% 12.0    8.8 3.2 0.0
18-4 57.0% 11.1    6.7 4.2 0.2
17-5 32.2% 6.0    2.6 3.0 0.4 0.0
16-6 12.4% 1.9    0.6 1.0 0.4 0.0
15-7 3.1% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0
14-8 0.4% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
13-9 0.0%
12-10 0.0%
11-11 0.0%
Total 41.4% 41.4 27.9 12.3 1.1 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
22-0
21-1 2.3% 47.8% 47.8% 11.3 0.0 0.0 0.7 0.4 0.0 1.2
20-2 7.8% 47.9% 47.9% 12.1 0.4 2.4 0.9 0.0 4.1
19-3 14.5% 39.0% 39.0% 12.6 0.1 2.7 2.6 0.3 8.9
18-4 19.4% 35.5% 35.5% 12.9 0.0 1.9 3.9 1.0 0.0 12.5
17-5 18.7% 29.6% 29.6% 13.2 0.8 3.1 1.6 0.1 13.2
16-6 15.5% 23.8% 23.8% 13.4 0.3 1.7 1.6 0.2 11.8
15-7 10.6% 17.5% 17.5% 13.6 0.1 0.7 0.9 0.2 8.7
14-8 6.0% 13.1% 13.1% 13.9 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.2 5.2
13-9 3.0% 8.1% 8.1% 14.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 2.8
12-10 1.4% 5.3% 5.3% 13.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.3
11-11 0.5% 1.0% 1.0% 16.0 0.0 0.5
10-12 0.2% 11.8% 11.8% 15.8 0.0 0.0 0.2
9-13 0.0% 0.0
8-14 0.0% 0.0
7-15
6-16
5-17
4-18
3-19
2-20
1-21
0-22
Total 100% 29.6% 29.6% 0.0% 12.9 70.4 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 1.1% 100.0% 11.3 0.5 2.7 60.6 35.3 0.9
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.8%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.4%