Tennessee St.
Ohio Valley
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -3.7 224
Results Rating -1.9 197
Pace 74.9 33
Improvement +2.7 81

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense C 170 D+ C+ C+ C- D-
Defense D+ 277 D- C- B D- F+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 39% 157 C 59% 158 +0.6 158
2 Pt. Jumpers 63% 8 D+ 35% 260 +3.1 47
Three Pointers 30% 353 D 30% 314 -7.2 354
Shot Selection/Accuracy D- -1.2 328 D+ -2.2 260
1st FG Attempt D+ 0.95 291
Second Chance C+ 31.6% 150 C 1.04 164 C+ 0.33 135
Turnovers C+ 16.5% 157
Freethrows D+ 0.28 266 B- 75% 108 C- 0.21 224
Total Offense C -0.3 170

Assists Blocks (Opponents')
Close Shots C 47% 205 B- 9.7% 113
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots D 17% 298 A- 1.5% 10
Three Pointers D- 75% 341 C- 1.2% 265
Total D- 45% 344 B- 4.6% 73

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 45% 27 D+ 61% 254 +5.0 335
2 Pt. Jumpers 14% 353 F 47% 358 -1.4 81
Three Pointers 41% 169 D 37% 318 +2.2 288
Shot Selection/Accuracy F+ +1.3 358 D- +4.2 330
1st FG Attempt D- 1.14 341
Second Chance C- 31.4% 223 C- 1.08 257 C- 0.34 251
Turnovers B 18.9% 66
Freethrows D- 0.37 339 C- 73% 250 D- 0.27 339
Total Defense D+ -3.4 277

Assists Blocks
Close Shots C 48% 164 D+ 9.1% 245
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots C- 29% 248 C 5.3% 140
Three Pointers C 84% 162 B 1.6% 63
Total C 56% 204 C 5.5% 182

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 16.7 106 16.6 54
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.20 93 0.22 336
Improvement +5.0 #7 -2.2 #296

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Prediction Sensitivity
Pessimistic
5th Percentile 		Expected
50th Percentile 		Optimistic
95th Percentile
Predictive Rating Rank 252 229 201
Results Rating Rank 241 204 148
Conference Record 13 - 7 14 - 6 15 - 5
Conference Finish 4 2 1
NCAA Tourney Seed None None 15
NCAA Tourney Finish None None 1st Round

NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 23% 31% 19%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 15.5 15.4 15.7
.500 or above 100% 100% 100%
.500 or above in Conference 100% 100% 100%
Conference Champion 33% 78% 5%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0%
First Four4% 3% 5%
First Round21% 29% 17%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Next Game: Southeast Missouri St. (Away) - 38.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 21 - 01 - 2
Quad 32 - 33 - 5
Quad 415 - 618 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Sat, Nov 8 67 @Belmont L 79 - 87 9% -6  2% 0 - 1 C+ +3 D -4 F C- B A +9 B- A+ B+
 Sun, Nov 16 147 @Western Kentucky L 82 - 95 24% -9  0% 0 - 2 D -9 C+ +2 B- F C F -11 F F+ D-
 Thu, Nov 20 15 @Tennessee L 60 - 89 2% -22  0% 0 - 3 D+ -7 F -11 D- D+ F A- +7 B D+ A-
 Tue, Nov 25 223 @UNC Asheville W 75 - 73 38% -3  17% 1 - 3 C +1 D+ -3 D- A- F B +4 F B- A+
 Sun, Nov 30 274 @Chattanooga W 70 - 64 49% +8  99% 2 - 3 C+ +3 D+ -3 F B- B- B+ +6 A- D F
 Wed, Dec 3 310 @Alabama A&M L 53 - 80 58% -9  0% 2 - 4 F -33 F -21 F C+ F F -14 F F A+
 Sat, Dec 13 118 @UNLV W 63 - 60 18% -2  15% 3 - 4 B +9 F -13 F+ A- F A+ +22 A+ A A+
 Thu, Dec 18 217 Tennessee Martin W 78 - 71 60% -1  28% 4 - 4 1 - 0 C +1 C+ +2 B- D+ A C -1 B+ D B-
 Sat, Dec 20 222 Southeast Missouri St. L 82 - 91 61% -10  5% 4 - 5 1 - 1 F+ -15 C- -1 D F+ A F -14 F F A+
 Tue, Dec 30 309 @Tennessee Tech W 88 - 76 58% +9  83% 5 - 5 2 - 1 B- +6 A- +9 C- A+ C- D+ -3 F B+ B
 Sat, Jan 3 299 @Arkansas Little Rock W 84 - 79 56% +3  88% 6 - 5 3 - 1 C -0 C +1 F A A- C- -2 C F C+
 Thu, Jan 8 362 @Western Illinois W 90 - 68 86% +14  95% 7 - 5 4 - 1 B- +7 B +6 C A C- C+ +0 B D D+
 Sat, Jan 10 324 @Eastern Illinois L 70 - 74 64% -8  0% 7 - 6 4 - 2 D- -11 D+ -3 D- F B- F+ -8 F D- D
 Thu, Jan 15 280 Morehead St. W 105 - 100 OT 72% +5  94% 8 - 6 5 - 2 C- -5 A +12 A+ B C+ F -17 D- C- F
 Sat, Jan 17 339 Southern Indiana W 73 - 67 85% +4  78% 9 - 6 6 - 2 D -9 D+ -4 C- F A+ D+ -5 F C B-
 Thu, Jan 22 260 @SIU Edwardsville L 66 - 74 46% -2  36% 9 - 7 6 - 3 D -11 C +1 F B- A F -12 F B- B
 Sat, Jan 24 272 @Lindenwood W 96 - 86 48% +5  85% 10 - 7 7 - 3 B- +7 A +11 A+ C D D -6 F C+ C+
 Thu, Jan 29 299 Arkansas Little Rock W 70 - 63 76% -2  30% 11 - 7 8 - 3 C- -4 F+ -10 F+ C D B+ +6 A+ F C+
 Mon, Feb 2 309 Tennessee Tech L 85 - 90 78% -10  3% 11 - 8 8 - 4 F+ -17 B- +5 D+ A B- F -22 F B- D+
 Thu, Feb 5 324 Eastern Illinois W 77 - 68 82% +3  81% 12 - 8 9 - 4 C- -4 C +0 D+ F A+ D+ -4 F F A+
 Sat, Feb 7 362 Western Illinois W 83 - 56 94% +21  99% 13 - 8 10 - 4 B- +6 C +1 C+ F B B+ +6 B- B+ B-
 Thu, Feb 12 339 @Southern Indiana W 73 - 71 69% -3  19% 14 - 8 11 - 4 D+ -7 C +0 F A+ F D- -7 F D+ C+
 Sat, Feb 14 280 @Morehead St. L 86 - 94 50% -6  14% 14 - 9 11 - 5 D- -12 B+ +8 F B A F -19 F F B
 Thu, Feb 19 272 Lindenwood W 89 - 80 71% -2  40% 15 - 9 12 - 5 C -0 C +1 F A+ B C- -2 F+ C+ A
 Sat, Feb 21 260 SIU Edwardsville W 80 - 53 69% +16  93% 16 - 9 13 - 5 A +18 A +12 A+ B+ D- A +9 C- B+ A
 Thu, Feb 26 222 @Southeast Missouri St. L 76 - 79 38%
 Sat, Feb 28 217 @Tennessee Martin L 71 - 74 37%
Totals 17 - 10 14 - 6 -4 C +0 F+ D+ D- D+ -3 D B- C-



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings C C D+ D D+ 39% 63% 30% D- D+ C+ C C+ C+ D+ B- C- D+ D+ F D D- 45% 14% 41% F+ D- C- C- C- B D- C- D-
1.08 59% 35% 30% -2 -1 0.95 32% 1.0 .33 16% .28 75% .21 1.13 61% 47% 37% +4 +1 1.14 31% 1.1 .34 19% .37 73% .20
Nov
8		 Belmont D F F C- F 32% 30% 38% D- F B F+ C- B C+ A+ B+ A F A+ A+ B+ 57% 6% 37% F B- B A+ A+ B+ F B- F
0.97 45% 21% 33% -10 -2 0.79 36% 0.8 .30 16% .29 85% .25 1.07 76% 0% 26% +4 +3 1.16 24% 0.9 .21 21% .51 67% .34
Nov
16		 Western Kentucky C+ F A A+ B 30% 28% 42% D B- C F F C A+ B A+ F F F A+ F+ 68% 8% 25% F F C- F F+ D- F B F
1.07 47% 50% 43% +6 -2 1.10 29% 0.4 .11 18% .54 74% .40 1.24 64% 75% 15% 0 +4 1.09 33% 1.3 .42 12% .47 72% .34
Nov
20		 Tennessee F A+ F F D- 24% 29% 47% D- D- B+ F D+ F A+ A+ A+ A- C A+ C+ A- 46% 12% 42% D- B A+ F D+ A- F F F
0.76 73% 23% 19% -11 -2 0.76 30% 0.6 .18 28% .44 76% .33 1.12 61% 17% 33% -2 +2 1.02 36% 1.5 .54 21% .56 89% .50
Nov
25		 UNC Asheville D+ D+ C+ F D- 49% 26% 25% D+ D- B+ B+ A- F C- A C+ B D+ F F F 35% 43% 22% C+ F C+ B B- A+ F B+ F
1.02 54% 43% 23% -5 0 0.92 38% 1.1 .41 20% .29 76% .22 0.99 62% 63% 63% +21 -3 1.38 28% 0.9 .24 31% .55 64% .36
Nov
30		 Chattanooga D+ F F+ D F 43% 26% 30% D+ F D- A+ B- B- F A+ C- B+ B+ A+ A- A+ 35% 4% 62% F A- B F D F B- F C
1.07 48% 29% 31% -8 0 0.85 26% 1.6 .41 12% .26 93% .24 0.98 50% 0% 28% -10 +2 0.87 17% 1.7 .28 11% .24 86% .21
Dec
3		 Alabama A&M F F+ F F F 33% 33% 35% F F A+ F C+ F B+ F D+ F D F F F 42% 19% 40% F+ F F B F A+ F C F
0.81 50% 25% 18% -15 -2 0.67 47% 0.7 .34 21% .39 55% .22 1.23 61% 50% 47% +11 +1 1.26 41% 0.9 .38 23% .54 74% .40
Dec
13		 UNLV F C A+ F F+ 46% 28% 26% C- F+ B+ B+ A- F F F F A+ C+ C+ A+ A+ 51% 12% 37% F A+ C- A+ A A+ F A+ F
0.88 57% 50% 8% -8 0 0.86 36% 1.2 .44 25% .24 38% .09 0.84 57% 40% 20% -8 +2 0.90 33% 0.5 .18 25% .60 59% .36
Dec
18		 Tennessee Martin C+ B- A- C B+ 41% 43% 17% F B- F A- D+ A D+ A C C A- F A+ A- 43% 16% 41% D- B+ C- D D B- F F+ F
1.10 64% 43% 33% +4 -3 1.06 24% 1.1 .27 14% .30 78% .23 1.00 47% 57% 22% -9 +1 0.86 37% 1.0 .37 23% .53 72% .38
Dec
20		 Southeast Missouri St. C- B- F B+ C- 40% 36% 25% F D D F F+ A A+ D+ A+ F D- F F F 44% 13% 42% D- F D- F F A+ F F F
1.07 62% 26% 38% -1 -2 0.96 23% 0.9 .21 13% .54 72% .39 1.19 65% 67% 42% +12 +1 1.29 32% 1.7 .54 25% .50 76% .38
Dec
30		 Tennessee Tech A- B F A+ C+ 25% 37% 39% F C- A- A+ A+ C- F A+ F D+ F D+ D- F 42% 20% 38% D F B- A- B+ B B A- B+
1.25 64% 29% 45% +5 -3 1.05 39% 1.6 .64 16% .12 86% .10 1.08 76% 40% 37% +10 0 1.22 28% 0.9 .24 21% .24 69% .16
Jan
3		 Arkansas Little Rock C C+ F F F 49% 25% 26% D+ F C- A+ A A- B A+ A C- C A C+ C+ 42% 27% 31% F+ C D F F C+ F F+ F
1.13 64% 14% 27% -6 0 0.91 35% 1.3 .45 15% .33 81% .27 1.06 60% 23% 33% -4 -1 0.94 33% 1.2 .41 19% .48 72% .35
Jan
8		 Western Illinois B B- D C+ C 57% 17% 26% B- C C- A+ A C- B+ F C+ C+ C+ A+ A+ A+ 71% 4% 25% F B D- D+ D D+ F F F
1.25 67% 33% 36% +5 +2 1.15 32% 1.7 .55 15% .38 65% .25 0.94 50% 0% 8% -17 +4 0.77 29% 1.0 .29 15% .56 74% .41
Jan
10		 Eastern Illinois D+ F A+ F+ D 34% 25% 42% D- D- D F F B- B+ D- B- F+ B A- F F 47% 21% 32% F F D- D D- D A F+ B+
1.02 50% 54% 27% -3 -1 0.94 29% 0.6 .18 18% .39 73% .28 1.08 48% 27% 53% +2 +1 1.08 31% 1.1 .34 16% .19 82% .16
Jan
15		 Morehead St. A A- A- A+ A+ 39% 34% 27% F A+ D A+ B C+ B+ D+ B F A- F F D- 40% 26% 33% C- D- C- C- C- F F F F
1.35 68% 47% 67% +20 -2 1.39 31% 1.3 .41 14% .39 69% .27 1.29 48% 53% 42% +4 -1 1.09 36% 0.9 .33 10% .49 85% .42
Jan
17		 Southern Indiana D+ B- F D D+ 52% 20% 29% C+ C- F C+ F A+ F D+ F D+ B+ F D- F 35% 17% 48% D F D B+ C B- A+ C- A+
1.08 62% 27% 31% -1 +1 1.02 21% 1.0 .21 7% .22 71% .16 0.99 44% 44% 36% -2 0 0.98 33% 0.7 .23 19% .17 67% .11
Jan
22		 SIU Edwardsville C C- F F F 43% 24% 33% C+ F A+ F+ B- A A- A A+ F F A+ F F 41% 24% 34% F+ F F A+ B- B F C- F
1.04 55% 25% 18% -13 0 0.76 46% 0.8 .37 11% .39 82% .32 1.17 76% 20% 50% +11 0 1.24 34% 0.7 .24 21% .50 68% .34
Jan
24		 Lindenwood A B- A+ A+ A+ 56% 23% 21% C A+ C- C+ C D F C- F D C+ F F F 38% 28% 34% A- F A- F C+ C+ D F F
1.23 63% 64% 46% +12 +1 1.29 31% 1.1 .34 19% .16 70% .11 1.10 55% 47% 39% +4 -1 1.08 24% 1.3 .31 20% .35 91% .32
Jan
29		 Arkansas Little Rock F+ C D- D+ F+ 43% 23% 34% D+ F+ F+ A+ C D A+ F B+ B+ B A+ A+ A+ 28% 30% 43% C A+ D+ F F C+ A- F C+
1.01 63% 30% 33% 0 0 1.02 27% 1.2 .33 20% .42 61% .25 0.91 53% 19% 22% -15 -2 0.69 33% 1.4 .44 19% .16 89% .14
Feb
2		 Tennessee Tech B- C+ B+ F+ D+ 41% 29% 30% D+ D+ A+ F+ A B- C C+ C F A+ D F F 35% 15% 50% D F C+ C+ B- D+ F C F
1.23 61% 44% 29% +1 -1 1.02 48% 1.1 .50 13% .28 76% .22 1.30 38% 43% 65% +17 0 1.37 29% 1.0 .29 17% .44 76% .33
Feb
5		 Eastern Illinois C A+ F F C- 43% 27% 29% D- D+ F D F A+ A+ C A D+ D+ D+ F+ F 47% 18% 36% F F B F F A+ C- A C+
1.12 77% 29% 20% 0 -1 1.00 21% 1.0 .21 10% .44 78% .34 0.99 57% 38% 38% +1 +1 1.07 23% 1.8 .42 25% .29 67% .19
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Feb
7		 Western Illinois C A+ D+ F B 45% 29% 26% F+ C+ C- F F B F A+ D- B+ B D- A+ B 35% 24% 41% D+ B- D+ A+ B+ B- F F+ F
1.22 85% 35% 27% +8 -1 1.17 33% 0.4 .12 12% .20 92% .18 0.82 47% 42% 20% -12 -1 0.78 26% 0.6 .16 19% .40 73% .29
Feb
12		 Southern Indiana C F F A+ F 37% 42% 21% F F A+ B+ A+ F A+ A+ A+ D- D F C- F 49% 23% 28% D- F F A- D+ C+ F A+ F
1.10 38% 28% 44% -9 -3 0.79 46% 1.1 .51 21% .54 86% .46 1.07 57% 50% 33% +2 0 1.07 41% 0.7 .28 18% .63 44% .28
Feb
14		 Morehead St. B+ F F A F+ 31% 33% 35% F F B- B B A A+ A+ A+ F D+ F F F 54% 11% 35% F F F F F B F D- F
1.24 47% 25% 41% -4 -2 0.90 39% 1.1 .41 10% .58 89% .51 1.36 60% 80% 50% +14 +2 1.35 44% 1.2 .52 20% .51 79% .40
Feb
19		 Lindenwood C C- D+ F F+ 38% 38% 25% F F A A+ A+ B A+ C A+ C- C+ D+ F F 49% 22% 29% C- F+ B- C- C+ A F D- F
1.12 57% 33% 21% -7 -2 0.84 41% 1.4 .57 15% .46 71% .33 1.01 56% 36% 40% +1 +1 1.06 28% 1.1 .31 24% .41 72% .30
Feb
21		 SIU Edwardsville A A- A+ A+ A+ 42% 21% 38% B- A+ B B+ B+ D- F+ B- D- A D B+ B C 28% 22% 50% D C- A+ D- B+ A B A+ A+
1.26 65% 60% 44% +13 0 1.29 38% 1.1 .42 19% .25 77% .19 0.83 62% 30% 30% -3 -1 0.93 18% 1.2 .21 24% .23 27% .06



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Ohio Valley Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 17.7 15.1 32.7 1st
2nd 1.1 21.4 22.5 2nd
3rd 11.1 6.2 17.2 3rd
4th 27.5 27.5 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
Total 39.7 45.2 15.1 Total



Ohio Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5 100.0% 15.1    9.6 5.5
14-6 39.1% 17.7    0.2 2.2 8.1 7.2
13-7 0.0%
12-8
11-9
10-10
Total 32.7% 32.7 9.7 7.7 8.1 7.2



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5 15.1% 35.5% 35.5% 15.1 0.0 0.7 3.5 1.2 9.7
14-6 45.2% 25.7% 25.7% 15.6 0.2 4.4 7.0 33.6
13-7 39.7% 16.4% 16.4% 15.8 0.0 1.4 5.0 33.2
12-8
11-9
10-10
9-11
8-12
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 23.5% 23.5% 0.0% 15.5 76.5 0.0%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 5.3% 100.0% 15.1 0.2 12.3 65.4 22.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 3.3%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 6.4%
Lose Out 15.3%