Tennessee St.
Ohio Valley
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -3.2 #219
Expected Predictive Rating +0.8 #157
Pace 75.8 #41
Improvement +1.3 #112

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #255 F C C D+ D-
Defense #183 D C B- F F

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 41% #126 1.11 #243 +0.1 #177
2 Pt. Jumpers 31% #24 0.63 #315 +2.1 #77
Three Pointers 29% #360 0.83 #341 -8.8 #360
1st FG Attempt 0.88 #340 -6.7 #342
Freethrows 14.5 #317 77% #51 11.2 #268
Second Chance 30.4% #196 1.11 #113 0.34 #147
Turnovers 16.7% #183
Total Offense -2.8 #255

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 47% #11 1.26 #298 -7.6 #360
2 Pt. Jumpers 14% #348 0.88 #329 +1.7 #76
Three Pointers 39% #240 0.93 #89 +2.6 #92
1st FG Attempt 1.08 #286 -3.4 #286
Freethrows 22.2 #347 75% #285 16.7 #14
Second Chance 31.7% #219 1.01 #149 0.32 #181
Turnovers 18.1% #94
Total Defense -0.4 #183

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -2.3% #314 3.1% #362
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -11.1% #338 3.5% #244
Possession Length 16.6 #124 16.1 #31
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.20 #98 0.24 #348
Improvement +2.4 #48 -1.1 #250

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 22.9% 26.1% 18.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.0 14.9 15.2
.500 or above 94.9% 97.8% 90.4%
.500 or above in Conference 96.8% 98.8% 93.8%
Conference Champion 32.2% 40.2% 20.2%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four1.8% 1.5% 2.3%
First Round22.1% 25.4% 17.2%
Second Round0.4% 0.5% 0.2%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Eastern Illinois (Away) - 60.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 16 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 1
Quad 20 - 10 - 2
Quad 32 - 22 - 4
Quad 415 - 618 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Sat, Nov 8 73 @Belmont L 79 - 87 10%  -6  0 - 1 +3 -1 F C C+ +5 B A+ B
 Sun, Nov 16 155 @Western Kentucky L 82 - 95 28%  -9  0 - 2 -10 +3 C F C- -12 F F D
 Thu, Nov 20 16 @Tennessee L 60 - 89 2%  -22  0 - 3 -8 -9 F D F +4 B+ C A+
 Tue, Nov 25 239 @UNC Asheville W 75 - 73 43%  -3  1 - 3 +1 -2 F B+ F +3 F A A+
 Sun, Nov 30 273 @Chattanooga W 70 - 64 51%  +8  2 - 3 +3 -0 F C A +3 A- F F
 Wed, Dec 3 303 @Alabama A&M L 53 - 80 57%  -9  2 - 4 -32 -18 F C F -16 F F A+
 Sat, Dec 13 142 @UNLV W 63 - 60 25%  -2  3 - 4 +7 -8 D- B- F +15 A- A+ A+
 Thu, Dec 18 235 Tennessee Martin W 78 - 71 65%  +15  4 - 4 1 - 0 -0 +2 C+ F C+ -2 A+ B- A+
 Sat, Dec 20 218 Southeast Missouri St. L 82 - 91 61%  -10  4 - 5 1 - 1 -15 +0 D- F A+ -14 F F A+
 Tue, Dec 30 313 @Tennessee Tech W 88 - 76 62%  +9  5 - 5 2 - 1 +6 +12 C- A+ C+ -6 F B B-
 Sat, Jan 3 299 @Arkansas Little Rock W 84 - 79 56%  +3  6 - 5 3 - 1 +0 +4 F A A+ -4 C+ F D
 Thu, Jan 8 358 @Western Illinois W 90 - 68 80%  +14  7 - 5 4 - 1 +10 +10 C A+ D+ -1 B- C+ D+
 Sat, Jan 10 309 @Eastern Illinois W 72 - 69 60% 
 Thu, Jan 15 308 Morehead St. W 79 - 70 79% 
 Sat, Jan 17 333 Southern Indiana W 81 - 70 83% 
 Thu, Jan 22 275 @SIU Edwardsville W 71 - 70 52% 
 Sat, Jan 24 240 @Lindenwood L 77 - 79 44% 
 Tue, Jan 27 313 Tennessee Tech W 81 - 72 80% 
 Thu, Jan 29 299 Arkansas Little Rock W 78 - 70 76% 
 Thu, Feb 5 309 Eastern Illinois W 75 - 66 78% 
 Sat, Feb 7 358 Western Illinois W 79 - 64 91% 
 Thu, Feb 12 333 @Southern Indiana W 78 - 73 66% 
 Sat, Feb 14 308 @Morehead St. W 76 - 73 59% 
 Thu, Feb 19 240 Lindenwood W 80 - 76 65% 
 Sat, Feb 21 275 SIU Edwardsville W 74 - 68 72% 
 Sat, Feb 28 235 @Tennessee Martin L 72 - 74 42% 
Totals 16 - 10 13 - 6 -3 -3 F C C +0 D C B-




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Ohio Valley Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 1.2 5.7 10.1 9.5 4.7 1.1 32.2 1st
2nd 0.0 1.4 7.1 9.8 5.6 1.4 0.1 25.3 2nd
3rd 0.0 1.0 5.8 7.6 2.9 0.4 0.0 17.6 3rd
4th 0.0 0.4 3.5 5.4 1.8 0.2 0.0 11.3 4th
5th 0.1 1.6 3.4 1.1 0.1 6.3 5th
6th 0.0 0.6 2.0 1.1 0.0 3.8 6th
7th 0.0 0.3 1.0 0.7 0.1 2.1 7th
8th 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.1 0.9 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.4 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.0 11th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.7 2.2 4.9 9.1 13.8 17.7 18.6 16.0 10.9 4.8 1.1 Total



Ohio Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2 100.0% 1.1    1.0 0.0
17-3 97.7% 4.7    4.3 0.4 0.0
16-4 87.4% 9.5    7.2 2.2 0.1
15-5 62.9% 10.1    5.3 4.1 0.7 0.0
14-6 30.9% 5.7    1.5 2.5 1.5 0.2
13-7 6.5% 1.2    0.1 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.0
12-8 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 32.2% 32.2 19.5 9.5 2.7 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2 1.1% 54.3% 54.3% 12.8 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.5
17-3 4.8% 45.3% 45.3% 14.0 0.0 0.5 1.2 0.5 2.6
16-4 10.9% 40.6% 40.6% 14.6 0.1 1.6 2.4 0.2 6.5
15-5 16.0% 34.1% 34.1% 15.0 0.1 0.9 3.4 1.1 10.5
14-6 18.6% 25.3% 25.3% 15.3 0.0 0.4 2.5 1.8 13.9
13-7 17.7% 18.2% 18.2% 15.5 0.0 0.1 1.3 1.9 14.5
12-8 13.8% 11.2% 11.2% 15.7 0.4 1.1 12.3
11-9 9.1% 6.0% 6.0% 15.9 0.1 0.5 8.6
10-10 4.9% 5.0% 5.0% 16.0 0.0 0.2 4.7
9-11 2.2% 2.1% 2.1% 15.8 0.0 0.0 2.1
8-12 0.7% 0.7
7-13 0.3% 0.3
6-14 0.0% 0.0
5-15 0.0% 0.0
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 22.9% 22.9% 0.0% 15.0 77.1 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.6% 100.0% 12.8 1.8 29.8 55.3 13.2
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.2%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.3%