Tennessee St.
Ohio Valley
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-8.9#317
Expected Predictive Rating-16.7#355
Pace75.7#33
Improvement-2.2#296

Offense
Total Offense-4.9#312
First Shot-5.4#325
After Offensive Rebound+0.5#150
Layup/Dunks+2.6#90
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.7#131
3 Pt Jumpshots-6.0#347
Freethrows-2.6#323
Improvement-1.6#297

Defense
Total Defense-4.0#296
First Shot-3.0#276
After Offensive Rebounds-1.0#264
Layups/Dunks-1.9#258
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.6#137
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.2#181
Freethrows-1.9#313
Improvement-0.6#228
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 4.6% 6.3% 2.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 7.9% 12.2% 3.7%
.500 or above in Conference 38.6% 51.3% 25.9%
Conference Champion 3.6% 5.9% 1.3%
Last Place in Conference 15.8% 9.0% 22.6%
First Four4.1% 5.6% 2.7%
First Round2.6% 3.6% 1.6%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Southeast Missouri St. (Home) - 49.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 0
Quad 20 - 20 - 2
Quad 30 - 40 - 6
Quad 410 - 1310 - 19


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 08, 2024 97   @ Colorado St. L 79-87 OT 7%     0 - 1 +0.0 +0.0 +1.1
  Nov 10, 2024 159   @ Wyoming L 66-81 14%     0 - 2 -12.0 -6.0 -5.9
  Nov 13, 2024 255   Howard L 84-88 OT 36%     0 - 3 -9.1 +2.8 -11.7
  Nov 16, 2024 360   Alabama A&M W 81-71 79%     1 - 3 -7.3 -11.5 +2.9
  Nov 25, 2024 172   @ Chattanooga L 78-85 15%     1 - 4 -4.6 -1.9 -2.2
  Nov 26, 2024 185   Bryant L 85-97 23%     1 - 5 -13.2 -1.0 -10.5
  Dec 01, 2024 176   UNC Asheville L 74-92 31%     1 - 6 -21.8 -5.3 -15.9
  Dec 10, 2024 108   @ Western Kentucky L 60-84 8%     1 - 7 -16.8 -11.4 -3.6
  Dec 19, 2024 325   @ Southern Indiana L 75-77 40%     1 - 8 0 - 1 -8.3 -5.7 -2.5
  Dec 21, 2024 276   @ Morehead St. L 68-74 30%     1 - 9 0 - 2 -9.4 -2.0 -7.8
  Jan 02, 2025 270   Southeast Missouri St. L 75-76 50%    
  Jan 04, 2025 244   Arkansas Little Rock L 71-72 45%    
  Jan 09, 2025 347   @ Lindenwood W 75-74 50%    
  Jan 11, 2025 331   @ Western Illinois L 70-72 44%    
  Jan 16, 2025 281   SIU Edwardsville W 73-72 52%    
  Jan 18, 2025 326   Eastern Illinois W 74-71 62%    
  Jan 21, 2025 288   Tennessee Martin W 75-74 53%    
  Jan 23, 2025 328   Tennessee Tech W 77-73 63%    
  Jan 30, 2025 244   @ Arkansas Little Rock L 68-75 25%    
  Feb 01, 2025 270   @ Southeast Missouri St. L 73-79 29%    
  Feb 06, 2025 331   Western Illinois W 73-69 65%    
  Feb 08, 2025 347   Lindenwood W 77-71 71%    
  Feb 13, 2025 326   @ Eastern Illinois L 71-74 41%    
  Feb 15, 2025 281   @ SIU Edwardsville L 70-75 31%    
  Feb 18, 2025 288   @ Tennessee Martin L 72-77 32%    
  Feb 22, 2025 328   @ Tennessee Tech L 74-76 41%    
  Feb 27, 2025 276   Morehead St. W 73-72 52%    
  Mar 01, 2025 325   Southern Indiana W 76-73 62%    
Projected Record 10 - 18 9 - 11




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Ohio Valley Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 0.8 1.3 0.8 0.4 0.1 0.0 3.6 1st
2nd 0.3 1.6 2.3 1.1 0.2 0.0 5.6 2nd
3rd 0.2 2.1 3.1 1.4 0.2 0.0 7.1 3rd
4th 0.1 2.0 4.3 1.9 0.2 0.0 8.5 4th
5th 0.1 1.4 5.0 2.8 0.3 0.0 9.6 5th
6th 0.0 0.9 4.9 4.2 0.5 0.0 10.6 6th
7th 0.0 0.7 4.2 5.6 1.1 0.0 11.7 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 0.6 3.4 5.6 1.8 0.1 11.4 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.7 3.0 5.3 2.3 0.2 11.6 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 1.1 2.9 4.3 2.2 0.3 10.8 10th
11th 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.7 2.7 2.7 1.4 0.3 0.0 9.6 11th
Total 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.8 3.8 6.3 9.4 11.9 13.3 14.0 12.5 10.0 7.1 4.8 2.6 1.1 0.4 0.1 0.0 Total



Ohio Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2 100.0% 0.0    0.0
17-3 100.0% 0.1    0.1 0.0
16-4 91.6% 0.4    0.3 0.1
15-5 77.6% 0.8    0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0
14-6 49.5% 1.3    0.5 0.5 0.2 0.0
13-7 16.7% 0.8    0.2 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0
12-8 2.3% 0.2    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-9 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
10-10 0.0%
Total 3.6% 3.6 1.7 1.1 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
17-3 0.1% 42.6% 42.6% 15.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
16-4 0.4% 36.1% 36.1% 15.8 0.0 0.1 0.3
15-5 1.1% 29.3% 29.3% 16.0 0.0 0.3 0.8
14-6 2.6% 27.6% 27.6% 16.0 0.0 0.7 1.9
13-7 4.8% 18.9% 18.9% 16.0 0.0 0.9 3.9
12-8 7.1% 12.6% 12.6% 16.0 0.0 0.9 6.2
11-9 10.0% 7.2% 7.2% 16.0 0.7 9.3
10-10 12.5% 4.0% 4.0% 16.0 0.5 12.0
9-11 14.0% 1.8% 1.8% 16.0 0.3 13.7
8-12 13.3% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.1 13.2
7-13 11.9% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 11.9
6-14 9.4% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 9.3
5-15 6.3% 6.3
4-16 3.8% 3.8
3-17 1.8% 1.8
2-18 0.7% 0.7
1-19 0.2% 0.2
0-20 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 4.6% 4.6% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 4.5 95.4 0.0%