Tennessee St.
Ohio Valley
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
Switch to All-time Team Page
Predictive Rating -3.9 #230
Expected Predictive Rating -0.6 #173
Pace 74.9 #37
Improvement +0.9 #144

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #207 D+ C C D+ D
Defense #250 D C- C+ D- D-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 40% #137 1.15 #186 +0.7 #151
2 Pt. Jumpers 30% #25 0.70 #267 +2.9 #50
Three Pointers 30% #355 0.90 #322 -7.6 #358
1st FG Attempt 0.94 #302 -4.0 #303
Freethrows 0.26 #311 73% #143 0.19 #289
Second Chance 29.9% #207 1.07 #113 0.32 #159
Turnovers 16.2% #147
Total Offense -1.7 #207

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 45% #21 1.22 #267 -5.4 #346
2 Pt. Jumpers 14% #343 0.88 #342 +1.4 #81
Three Pointers 40% #210 1.05 #233 -0.3 #196
1st FG Attempt 1.10 #313 -4.3 #312
Freethrows 0.36 #324 77% #349 0.27 #345
Second Chance 32.1% #245 1.06 #241 0.34 #250
Turnovers 18.0% #95
Total Defense -2.2 #250

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -2.3% #316 2.5% #355
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -5.7% #280 5.9% #297
Possession Length 16.3 #88 16.5 #53
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.20 #104 0.23 #341
Improvement +3.2 #41 -2.3 #306

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 19.5% 20.6% 14.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.3 15.2 15.5
.500 or above 99.0% 99.6% 95.9%
.500 or above in Conference 99.8% 100.0% 98.8%
Conference Champion 22.5% 25.4% 8.2%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four2.2% 2.1% 2.5%
First Round18.6% 19.7% 12.9%
Second Round0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Tennessee Tech (Home) - 83.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 00 - 2
Quad 33 - 23 - 4
Quad 414 - 617 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Sat, Nov 8 74 @Belmont L 79 - 87 9% -6  0 - 1 +3 -1 F+ C- B +5 B- A+ B-
 Sun, Nov 16 156 @Western Kentucky L 82 - 95 26% -9  0 - 2 -10 +5 B- F C- -14 F F+ D
 Thu, Nov 20 18 @Tennessee L 60 - 89 2% -22  0 - 3 -8 -9 D- D+ F +4 B D B+
 Tue, Nov 25 209 @UNC Asheville W 75 - 73 35% -3  1 - 3 +2 -1 D- B+ F+ +3 F B- A+
 Sun, Nov 30 275 @Chattanooga W 70 - 64 48% +8  2 - 3 +3 +0 F C+ B +3 B+ D- F+
 Wed, Dec 3 293 @Alabama A&M L 53 - 80 53% -9  2 - 4 -32 -18 F C+ F -16 F F A+
 Sat, Dec 13 128 @UNLV W 63 - 60 20% -2  3 - 4 +8 -9 D- A- F +17 A A- A+
 Thu, Dec 18 203 Tennessee Martin W 78 - 71 57% -1  4 - 4 1 - 0 +1 +4 B- D+ A- -3 B+ D+ C+
 Sat, Dec 20 238 Southeast Missouri St. L 82 - 91 63% -10  4 - 5 1 - 1 -16 +0 D F+ A+ -16 F F A+
 Tue, Dec 30 333 @Tennessee Tech W 88 - 76 65% +9  5 - 5 2 - 1 +4 +11 C- A+ C -7 F B- B-
 Sat, Jan 3 292 @Arkansas Little Rock W 84 - 79 53% +3  6 - 5 3 - 1 +0 +4 F B+ A -3 C F C
 Thu, Jan 8 362 @Western Illinois W 90 - 68 81% +14  7 - 5 4 - 1 +9 +10 C+ A+ C- -2 C+ D+ D
 Sat, Jan 10 321 @Eastern Illinois L 70 - 74 62% -8  7 - 6 4 - 2 -11 -1 D F B- -10 F F+ D
 Thu, Jan 15 299 Morehead St. W 105 - 100 OT 75% +5  8 - 6 5 - 2 -6 +14 A+ B C+ -21 F+ C- F
 Sat, Jan 17 332 Southern Indiana W 73 - 67 82% +4  9 - 6 6 - 2 -8 +1 C- D A+ -8 F C- B-
 Thu, Jan 22 252 @SIU Edwardsville L 66 - 74 44% -2  9 - 7 6 - 3 -10 +3 F C+ A -14 F B- B-
 Sat, Jan 24 240 @Lindenwood W 96 - 86 41% +5  10 - 7 7 - 3 +9 +15 A+ C D+ -7 F B- C+
 Thu, Jan 29 292 Arkansas Little Rock W 70 - 63 74% -2  11 - 7 8 - 3 -4 -8 F C- C- +4 A+ F C
 Mon, Feb 2 333 Tennessee Tech W 82 - 72 83%
 Thu, Feb 5 321 Eastern Illinois W 76 - 67 80%
 Sat, Feb 7 362 Western Illinois W 81 - 66 92%
 Thu, Feb 12 332 @Southern Indiana W 76 - 72 63%
 Sat, Feb 14 299 @Morehead St. W 77 - 76 54%
 Thu, Feb 19 240 Lindenwood W 83 - 79 63%
 Sat, Feb 21 252 SIU Edwardsville W 72 - 68 66%
 Sat, Feb 28 203 @Tennessee Martin L 71 - 75 34%
Totals 16 - 10 13 - 6 -4 -2 D+ C C -2 D C- C+




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Ohio Valley Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.5 7.0 10.5 4.5 22.5 1st
2nd 1.0 11.2 17.7 5.6 0.2 35.8 2nd
3rd 0.2 5.4 11.5 2.3 19.4 3rd
4th 0.0 1.3 7.3 2.5 0.1 11.2 4th
5th 0.2 2.8 3.4 0.1 6.5 5th
6th 0.1 0.9 2.3 0.4 3.6 6th
7th 0.1 0.7 0.3 1.1 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 0.1 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
Total 0.2 1.8 6.9 17.5 25.8 27.1 16.1 4.7 Total



Ohio Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4 95.8% 4.5    3.6 0.8
15-5 65.1% 10.5    5.4 4.6 0.4 0.0
14-6 25.8% 7.0    1.1 3.4 2.1 0.3 0.0
13-7 2.1% 0.5    0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 22.5% 22.5 10.1 8.9 2.7 0.6 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4 4.7% 37.7% 37.7% 14.2 0.2 1.1 0.5 0.0 2.9
15-5 16.1% 34.0% 34.0% 15.1 0.0 0.7 3.6 1.1 10.6
14-6 27.1% 23.5% 23.5% 15.4 0.3 3.3 2.8 20.7
13-7 25.8% 15.1% 15.1% 15.6 0.1 1.4 2.4 21.9
12-8 17.5% 9.2% 9.2% 15.8 0.3 1.3 15.9
11-9 6.9% 4.9% 4.9% 15.9 0.0 0.3 6.5
10-10 1.8% 5.7% 5.7% 16.0 0.0 0.1 1.7
9-11 0.2% 0.2
8-12
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 19.5% 19.5% 0.0% 15.3 80.5 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 1.8% 100.0% 14.2 12.5 59.7 27.3 0.6
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 1.2%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 1.7%