Tennessee Tech
Ohio Valley
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -8.7 309
Results Rating -9.2 314
Pace 68.3 187
Improvement +1.7 122

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense D+ 286 D C D C- C-
Defense D 302 D+ D- D C C

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 37% 218 D+ 54% 280 -2.2 264
2 Pt. Jumpers 45% 94 C- 37% 213 +0.9 130
Three Pointers 39% 219 D 31% 297 -2.7 272
Shot Selection/Accuracy C- -0.5 248 D -3.5 305
1st FG Attempt D 0.94 303
Second Chance C 30.3% 182 C 1.04 165 C 0.31 169
Turnovers D 19.0% 311
Freethrows D+ 0.27 273 B 76% 63 C- 0.21 220
Total Offense D+ -4.4 286

Assists Blocks (Opponents')
Close Shots D+ 42% 283 C- 12.0% 244
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots D 15% 322 C- 6.2% 263
Three Pointers D+ 80% 267 D- 1.6% 329
Total D 48% 324 D+ 6.6% 280

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 38% 198 C- 60% 248 +0.7 206
2 Pt. Jumpers 21% 181 C+ 37% 142 -0.2 174
Three Pointers 41% 158 D- 38% 325 +2.5 303
Shot Selection/Accuracy C +0.0 162 D +2.9 296
1st FG Attempt D+ 1.08 273
Second Chance C- 31.1% 215 F 1.21 358 D- 0.38 324
Turnovers D 14.6% 310
Freethrows C+ 0.29 143 D- 76% 340 C 0.22 182
Total Defense D -4.3 302

Assists Blocks
Close Shots C- 51% 231 C- 9.6% 227
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots C- 28% 228 D+ 3.4% 271
Three Pointers C- 85% 217 C- 0.7% 194
Total C- 59% 246 D+ 4.6% 254

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 17.7 214 17.2 158
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.15 230 0.21 315
Improvement +2.0 #98 -0.3 #211

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Prediction Sensitivity
Pessimistic
5th Percentile 		Expected
50th Percentile 		Optimistic
95th Percentile
Predictive Rating Rank 318 305 284
Results Rating Rank 327 309 279
Conference Record 8 - 12 8 - 12 10 - 10
Conference Finish 8 8 7
NCAA Tourney Seed None None None
NCAA Tourney Finish None None None

NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 1% 2% 1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 0% 1% 0%
.500 or above in Conference 5% 24% 0%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0%
First Four1% 2% 1%
First Round1% 1% 0%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Next Game: Tennessee Martin (Away) - 21.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 2
Quad 20 - 00 - 2
Quad 31 - 51 - 7
Quad 410 - 1111 - 18


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 147 @Western Kentucky L 70 - 82 13% -9  3% 0 - 1 D -8 F+ -8 C- B F C+ +1 A F C
 Fri, Nov 7 174 @Charlotte L 65 - 70 16% -10  0% 0 - 2 C- -3 D- -8 D+ A+ F B +4 D+ F A+
 Mon, Nov 17 317 West Georgia L 59 - 61 64% -6  13% 0 - 3 F+ -15 F -20 F C- F B+ +5 B+ A B+
 Wed, Nov 19 297 @South Carolina Upstate W 88 - 84 36% +3  73% 1 - 3 C -1 B- +4 B B+ F D -6 F B+ F
 Wed, Nov 26 25 @Kentucky L 54 - 104 1% -18  15% 1 - 4 F -31 F -15 F C- B F -15 F F C-
 Sat, Nov 29 32 @Georgia L 81 - 123 2% -23  0% 1 - 5 F -24 D -4 D C- A- F -12 F B- D
 Wed, Dec 3 188 @Lipscomb L 80 - 83 17% -1  41% 1 - 6 C- -2 C +1 B- C B- C- -3 C C- D
 Sat, Dec 6 317 @West Georgia W 87 - 59 42% +10  86% 2 - 6 A +21 B+ +8 A+ F C- A+ +13 A+ F B+
 Thu, Dec 18 222 Southeast Missouri St. W 85 - 74 41% +2  49% 3 - 6 1 - 0 C+ +5 B +7 D B B C- -2 A+ F B
 Sat, Dec 20 217 Tennessee Martin L 62 - 86 41% -7  8% 3 - 7 1 - 1 F -30 D- -7 B+ F+ F F -26 F B+ F
 Tue, Dec 30 224 Tennessee St. L 76 - 88 42% -9  15% 3 - 8 1 - 2 F -19 D -5 B D- D F -14 D- F C-
 Thu, Jan 1 299 @Arkansas Little Rock L 58 - 77 36% -5  18% 3 - 9 1 - 3 F -24 F -18 F C F D- -7 F C+ D
 Thu, Jan 8 324 @Eastern Illinois L 61 - 71 45% +2  72% 3 - 10 1 - 4 F+ -17 D- -7 F+ D+ F F -12 F+ F F
 Sat, Jan 10 362 @Western Illinois W 59 - 54 73% -2  28% 4 - 10 2 - 4 D -10 F -16 F F F+ B+ +6 D+ C+ A+
 Thu, Jan 15 339 Southern Indiana L 54 - 71 72% +0  58% 4 - 11 2 - 5 F -32 F -24 F F F+ D- -8 C- D+ F
 Sat, Jan 17 280 Morehead St. L 70 - 76 54% -7  8% 4 - 12 2 - 6 F+ -16 D -5 F B+ B F -11 B- F F
 Thu, Jan 22 272 @Lindenwood L 68 - 89 30% -19  0% 4 - 13 2 - 7 F -24 F -12 F F+ F+ F -10 F F A-
 Sat, Jan 24 260 @SIU Edwardsville L 58 - 62 28% -9  0% 4 - 14 2 - 8 D+ -7 D+ -3 F+ C- A+ D -5 B- F+ F
 Sat, Jan 31 299 Arkansas Little Rock W 87 - 77 59% +8  88% 5 - 14 3 - 8 C -1 B+ +9 A- A- F F+ -10 F A+ F
 Mon, Feb 2 224 @Tennessee St. W 90 - 85 22% +10  92% 6 - 14 4 - 8 C+ +4 A +14 A+ D+ B- F+ -10 D+ F D-
 Thu, Feb 5 362 Western Illinois W 97 - 72 87% +18  94% 7 - 14 5 - 8 C+ +4 A+ +25 A+ A B- F -18 F F C-
 Sat, Feb 7 324 Eastern Illinois L 54 - 60 67% -7  1% 7 - 15 5 - 9 F -19 F -20 F C+ F C -0 C C- D
 Thu, Feb 12 280 @Morehead St. L 66 - 73 31% -10  0% 7 - 16 5 - 10 D -11 D -5 F B A- D -6 F+ C F+
 Sat, Feb 14 339 @Southern Indiana W 82 - 74 51% +0  41% 8 - 16 6 - 10 C -1 A +12 B- A+ B- F -12 F+ D- F
 Thu, Feb 19 260 SIU Edwardsville W 62 - 52 50% +1  50% 9 - 16 7 - 10 C +1 F -11 F B+ C+ A+ +13 A+ C- F
 Sat, Feb 21 272 Lindenwood W 72 - 57 52% +3  71% 10 - 16 8 - 10 B- +6 C- -1 D+ B- C+ A- +8 B A+ D+
 Thu, Feb 26 217 @Tennessee Martin L 64 - 72 21%
 Sat, Feb 28 222 @Southeast Missouri St. L 69 - 77 22%
Totals 10 - 18 8 - 12 -9 D+ -4 C+ D C- D -4 D B C-



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings D+ D+ C- D D 37% 45% 39% C- D C C C D D+ B C- D C- C+ D- D 38% 21% 41% C D+ C- F D- D C+ D- C
1.02 54% 37% 31% -3 0 0.94 30% 1.0 .31 19% .27 76% .21 1.15 60% 37% 38% +3 0 1.08 31% 1.2 .38 15% .29 76% .21
Nov
3		 Western Kentucky F+ D- A+ D+ C- 30% 17% 53% B- C- D+ A+ B F F F F C+ A+ F A+ A 54% 26% 20% C- A C- F F C F D- F
0.92 50% 56% 32% -1 0 1.00 26% 1.3 .33 25% .21 50% .10 1.08 37% 46% 20% -13 0 0.76 33% 1.4 .46 14% .54 80% .43
Nov
7		 Charlotte D- D+ F B- D+ 51% 21% 28% B D+ C+ A+ A+ F A+ F C+ B C- B+ F D- 33% 25% 43% A D+ D F F A+ F C+ F
0.99 55% 25% 36% -3 +1 0.97 32% 1.7 .55 26% .51 48% .25 1.07 62% 30% 47% +7 -1 1.15 37% 1.4 .52 29% .43 70% .30
Nov
17		 West Georgia F A+ C F F 36% 22% 42% F+ F F+ A+ C- F B- A+ A+ B+ A+ A F B- 16% 55% 29% A+ B+ D+ A+ A B+ D+ F F
0.88 75% 40% 5% -12 0 0.78 23% 1.3 .29 22% .37 89% .33 0.91 25% 30% 43% -6 -6 0.78 33% 0.6 .21 19% .30 88% .26
Nov
19		 South Carolina Upstate B- B+ F A+ B+ 38% 22% 40% D B B- B+ B+ F A+ A+ A+ D D- F A+ D- 53% 11% 37% F F B+ B+ B+ F F A- D-
1.14 65% 20% 44% +5 0 1.11 34% 1.3 .45 22% .53 81% .43 1.09 63% 83% 24% +2 +2 1.11 24% 0.8 .19 12% .40 63% .25
Nov
26		 Kentucky F D- D F F 28% 31% 41% D F D- A C- B F F F F D- D+ F F 44% 8% 47% F F C+ F F C- A+ F A
0.74 47% 32% 20% -14 -2 0.70 19% 1.0 .19 15% .08 40% .03 1.43 69% 40% 50% +16 +2 1.39 36% 1.6 .57 14% .21 85% .18
Nov
29		 Georgia D C+ F F D- 54% 22% 25% B D F A+ C- A- B A B+ F D+ F F F 36% 6% 58% D+ F B+ C B- D D- A- C-
0.93 57% 29% 19% -8 +1 0.88 21% 1.2 .26 16% .29 76% .22 1.42 65% 75% 51% +20 +2 1.45 33% 1.1 .36 12% .38 69% .26
Dec
3		 Lipscomb C F A+ A+ B 30% 32% 39% D- B- D+ B C B- C- C C- C- C- A C C 36% 7% 57% C- C D+ C+ C- D F A- D-
1.08 41% 50% 45% +5 -2 1.09 28% 1.1 .31 16% .27 71% .19 1.12 60% 25% 34% 0 +2 1.05 26% 1.0 .26 15% .32 70% .22
Dec
6		 West Georgia B+ A+ F A+ A+ 50% 26% 24% D A+ D- F F C- F+ A+ D+ A+ A+ B- A+ A+ 25% 35% 40% B- A+ A- F F B+ F+ B- D-
1.25 78% 29% 62% +17 0 1.37 24% 0.3 .08 16% .27 81% .22 0.85 33% 35% 21% -15 -3 0.67 24% 1.8 .42 20% .34 68% .23
Dec
18		 Southeast Missouri St. B C- F A D 43% 24% 33% D+ D C+ A B B A+ A A+ C- A+ B- B A+ 38% 13% 50% D+ A+ F D- F B F F F
1.18 55% 18% 40% -3 0 0.96 29% 1.3 .39 15% .68 83% .57 1.02 22% 33% 29% -18 +1 0.69 37% 1.3 .49 19% .53 77% .41
Dec
20		 Tennessee Martin D- A+ A+ D+ A- 18% 24% 58% D- B+ D- F+ F+ F F B+ D- F F F F F 27% 22% 51% B F A C B+ F A F C+
0.98 88% 55% 31% +6 -2 1.11 27% 0.8 .21 24% .25 75% .19 1.36 71% 55% 46% +17 -1 1.33 29% 0.9 .25 11% .23 85% .19
Dec
30		 Tennessee St. D A+ C- B- B+ 42% 20% 38% D B D+ F D- D F D F F D A- F F 25% 37% 39% A D- F F F C- A+ F A+
1.08 76% 40% 37% +10 0 1.22 28% 0.9 .24 21% .24 69% .16 1.25 64% 29% 45% +5 -3 1.05 39% 1.6 .64 16% .12 86% .10
Jan
1		 Arkansas Little Rock F F F F F 23% 21% 56% F F A- D- C F B A+ A D- F D- B- F 28% 32% 40% C+ F A F C+ D F C- F
0.86 45% 10% 26% -16 -1 0.69 44% 0.8 .33 24% .33 82% .27 1.14 92% 40% 32% +9 -2 1.15 23% 1.3 .29 16% .39 68% .26
Jan
8		 Eastern Illinois D- D B- F F+ 33% 18% 49% D+ F+ C- D D+ F A+ A+ A+ F D A+ D D 47% 17% 36% F F+ F F F F D- B- D
0.98 54% 43% 26% -6 0 0.90 32% 1.0 .32 24% .44 90% .40 1.14 59% 13% 35% -3 +1 0.98 33% 1.3 .42 13% .33 72% .24
Jan
10		 Western Illinois F D F F F 55% 18% 27% C+ F D F F F+ D F F B+ C+ B F D- 35% 40% 25% A D+ F+ A+ C+ A+ F A+ F+
0.94 56% 22% 23% -9 +1 0.88 30% 0.8 .24 18% .27 50% .14 0.86 50% 31% 40% -3 -3 0.90 31% 0.7 .21 24% .46 55% .25
Jan
15		 Southern Indiana F F A+ F F 47% 16% 37% B- F D F F F+ D- F F D- B A+ C B- 55% 8% 37% F C- C- D D+ F C+ A+ A
0.79 46% 50% 16% -14 +1 0.76 29% 0.6 .17 19% .27 60% .16 1.04 45% 0% 32% -11 +3 0.85 30% 0.9 .28 4% .29 47% .14
Jan
17		 Morehead St. D D C F F 57% 21% 21% C+ F C A+ B+ B A- D B F B- A- F C 31% 39% 31% A+ B- F F F F C- D D+
1.10 52% 40% 20% -8 +1 0.89 35% 1.3 .44 13% .40 68% .27 1.20 53% 32% 40% -1 -3 0.94 46% 1.1 .51 11% .32 78% .25
Jan
22		 Lindenwood F F B- F F 51% 27% 22% D+ F B- F F+ F+ A+ B- A+ F F C A+ F 61% 6% 33% F F F F F A- D F F
0.89 36% 38% 27% -13 0 0.76 35% 0.7 .23 21% .50 73% .36 1.17 71% 33% 24% +2 +4 1.14 37% 1.7 .63 24% .34 80% .27
Jan
24		 SIU Edwardsville D+ C D- F F+ 38% 33% 29% D F+ C+ D- C- A+ D+ C- D+ D F A+ A+ B 37% 26% 37% D B- F D+ F+ F D+ F F+
1.00 56% 31% 21% -9 -2 0.81 35% 0.8 .30 10% .29 73% .21 1.07 71% 17% 24% -7 -1 0.87 35% 1.1 .38 14% .30 80% .24
Jan
31		 Arkansas Little Rock B+ B A+ A A- 44% 7% 49% B+ A- A+ F+ A- F A+ A+ A+ F+ D F D- F 48% 28% 24% F F A A+ A+ F D+ F D-
1.28 68% 67% 43% +13 +2 1.33 60% 0.7 .43 31% .45 86% .38 1.13 65% 53% 38% +9 0 1.20 23% 0.7 .15 13% .25 80% .20
Feb
2		 Tennessee St. A F C A+ A+ 35% 15% 50% D A+ D+ D+ D+ B- A- B- A- F+ C- D- B D 41% 29% 30% D+ D+ F C F D- C C- C-
1.30 38% 43% 65% +17 0 1.37 29% 1.0 .29 17% .44 76% .33 1.23 61% 44% 29% +1 -1 1.02 48% 1.1 .50 13% .28 76% .22
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Feb
5		 Western Illinois A+ C- A+ A+ A+ 35% 14% 51% C- A+ A+ D+ A B- C B C+ F C+ D F F 26% 32% 43% B+ F D- F F C- C- F F+
1.57 61% 57% 58% +22 +1 1.47 50% 1.1 .54 13% .32 76% .24 1.16 50% 40% 45% +6 -2 1.09 29% 1.2 .35 16% .31 81% .25
Feb
7		 Eastern Illinois F D- C F F 39% 13% 47% C+ F B D C+ F A+ A A+ C C B+ C- C- 39% 37% 24% B- C B+ F C- D C- F+ D
0.84 53% 40% 17% -14 +1 0.76 40% 1.0 .40 33% .46 85% .39 0.93 53% 28% 33% -6 -2 0.86 22% 1.3 .28 15% .29 81% .24
Feb
12		 Morehead St. D D F F F 50% 16% 34% B- F C+ B B A- D- C+ D D F D B- F 42% 32% 26% C+ F+ C- C C F+ D+ F F+
1.06 52% 25% 24% -10 +1 0.84 38% 1.1 .41 11% .27 73% .20 1.17 71% 44% 31% +6 -1 1.12 35% 0.9 .32 14% .34 83% .28
Feb
14		 Southern Indiana A A C C- B 45% 23% 32% D+ B- B+ A+ A+ B- C+ B+ B F D+ A+ F F 34% 36% 30% A F+ D F+ D- F F F F
1.27 71% 36% 33% +5 0 1.13 41% 1.3 .52 14% .34 79% .27 1.15 56% 18% 50% -1 -2 0.96 32% 1.0 .32 12% .48 74% .35
Feb
19		 SIU Edwardsville F F A- F F 34% 34% 32% D- F C+ A- B+ C+ B A+ A A+ A- B A+ A+ 35% 28% 37% C- A+ A- F C- F A+ A+ A+
0.92 41% 47% 6% -16 -2 0.66 35% 1.1 .40 15% .37 86% .31 0.77 45% 31% 14% -17 -1 0.65 21% 1.4 .31 12% .10 50% .05
Feb
21		 Lindenwood C- F A+ C+ C- 33% 25% 42% F+ D+ F+ A+ B- C+ D A+ B- A- B+ A+ D B- 31% 25% 44% A- B A+ D A+ D+ A+ F A+
1.09 44% 50% 35% -1 -1 0.98 24% 1.6 .38 17% .29 88% .25 0.86 50% 15% 35% -8 -1 0.85 16% 1.2 .19 18% .15 75% .11



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Ohio Valley Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 0.0 0.0 5th
6th 0.3 0.3 6th
7th 7.3 19.1 4.7 31.0 7th
8th 51.5 13.8 65.2 8th
9th 3.4 3.4 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
Total 62.1 32.8 5.0 Total



Ohio Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9
10-10 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9
10-10 5.0% 2.7% 2.7% 16.0 0.1 4.9
9-11 32.8% 1.7% 1.7% 16.0 0.0 0.5 32.3
8-12 62.1% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.4 61.7
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 1.1% 1.1% 0.0% 16.0 98.9 0.0%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 16.0 100.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.2%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.5%
Lose Out 47.6%