UC Riverside
Big West
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-0.9#177
Expected Predictive Rating+5.2#99
Pace67.0#233
Improvement-1.3#267

Offense
Total Offense-0.7#191
First Shot-1.4#215
After Offensive Rebound+0.7#133
Layup/Dunks-2.3#264
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.3#56
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.4#199
Freethrows-1.0#244
Improvement-1.1#262

Defense
Total Defense-0.2#174
First Shot+0.4#154
After Offensive Rebounds-0.6#240
Layups/Dunks-2.4#278
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.6#249
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.7#114
Freethrows+1.7#63
Improvement-0.3#207
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 4.7% 5.6% 3.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.2 13.1 13.4
.500 or above 60.3% 72.5% 48.5%
.500 or above in Conference 73.3% 77.8% 68.8%
Conference Champion 4.6% 5.6% 3.5%
Last Place in Conference 1.4% 0.9% 1.8%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round4.7% 5.6% 3.8%
Second Round0.4% 0.5% 0.2%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: St. Thomas (Home) - 49.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 3
Quad 22 - 42 - 7
Quad 35 - 57 - 12
Quad 49 - 316 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 23   @ Oregon L 76-91 5%     0 - 1 +2.6 +10.8 -8.0
  Nov 08, 2024 41   @ BYU L 80-86 8%     0 - 2 +8.4 +8.2 +0.6
  Nov 12, 2024 158   @ California Baptist W 70-69 35%     1 - 2 +4.0 -0.1 +4.2
  Nov 19, 2024 73   @ Santa Clara L 54-96 14%     1 - 3 -31.3 -13.0 -19.5
  Nov 22, 2024 97   @ Colorado St. W 77-75 OT 20%     2 - 3 +10.0 +2.3 +7.6
  Nov 24, 2024 337   Alcorn St. W 69-52 89%     3 - 3 +2.9 -8.7 +12.4
  Nov 30, 2024 258   @ Idaho L 68-80 55%     3 - 4 -14.2 -1.9 -13.7
  Dec 05, 2024 153   @ Cal St. Northridge W 68-64 35%     4 - 4 1 - 0 +7.1 -2.7 +9.8
  Dec 07, 2024 276   Cal St. Fullerton W 75-68 79%     5 - 4 2 - 0 -2.3 -0.6 -1.6
  Dec 18, 2024 155   Montana St. W 83-80 58%     6 - 4 +0.1 +12.4 -12.1
  Dec 21, 2024 106   @ UNLV L 53-66 22%     6 - 5 -5.6 -10.0 +2.9
  Dec 29, 2024 125   St. Thomas L 73-74 49%    
  Jan 02, 2025 259   @ Long Beach St. W 69-68 56%    
  Jan 04, 2025 75   @ UC Irvine L 64-75 15%    
  Jan 09, 2025 166   Hawaii W 70-67 60%    
  Jan 16, 2025 146   @ UC Santa Barbara L 68-72 34%    
  Jan 18, 2025 90   UC San Diego L 68-72 35%    
  Jan 23, 2025 75   UC Irvine L 67-72 31%    
  Jan 25, 2025 260   @ Cal St. Bakersfield W 68-67 55%    
  Jan 30, 2025 223   UC Davis W 72-66 69%    
  Feb 01, 2025 271   Cal Poly W 84-76 77%    
  Feb 06, 2025 90   @ UC San Diego L 65-75 18%    
  Feb 08, 2025 260   Cal St. Bakersfield W 71-64 75%    
  Feb 13, 2025 223   @ UC Davis L 69-70 49%    
  Feb 15, 2025 146   UC Santa Barbara W 71-69 56%    
  Feb 20, 2025 259   Long Beach St. W 72-65 75%    
  Feb 22, 2025 271   @ Cal Poly W 81-79 57%    
  Feb 28, 2025 166   @ Hawaii L 67-70 38%    
  Mar 06, 2025 153   Cal St. Northridge W 76-74 58%    
  Mar 08, 2025 276   @ Cal St. Fullerton W 68-66 59%    
Projected Record 16 - 14 11 - 9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.1 1.5 1.0 0.4 0.1 0.0 4.6 1st
2nd 0.0 0.5 2.0 3.6 3.3 1.4 0.3 0.0 11.1 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 2.0 5.8 7.3 4.4 1.2 0.2 21.0 3rd
4th 0.2 2.5 6.5 6.4 2.5 0.4 0.0 18.4 4th
5th 0.1 1.9 5.8 5.1 1.4 0.1 0.0 14.4 5th
6th 0.1 1.3 4.8 4.1 1.0 0.1 11.3 6th
7th 0.0 0.7 3.5 3.3 0.7 0.0 8.2 7th
8th 0.0 0.4 2.1 2.2 0.6 0.0 5.4 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 1.2 1.4 0.5 0.0 3.3 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.8 0.3 0.0 1.7 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.5 11th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.9 2.6 4.5 7.6 10.8 13.3 14.6 14.2 12.0 8.8 5.6 3.0 1.3 0.4 0.1 0.0 Total



Big West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
19-1 100.0% 0.1    0.1
18-2 95.3% 0.4    0.3 0.1
17-3 75.5% 1.0    0.7 0.3 0.0
16-4 48.2% 1.5    0.7 0.6 0.1 0.0
15-5 20.2% 1.1    0.3 0.6 0.2 0.0
14-6 5.0% 0.4    0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.6% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 4.6% 4.6 2.2 1.7 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
19-1 0.1% 38.7% 38.7% 11.6 0.0 0.0 0.0
18-2 0.4% 33.2% 33.2% 12.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.3
17-3 1.3% 20.4% 20.4% 12.3 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 1.0
16-4 3.0% 20.7% 20.7% 12.6 0.0 0.3 0.3 0.1 2.4
15-5 5.6% 15.2% 15.2% 12.9 0.3 0.5 0.1 0.0 4.8
14-6 8.8% 10.0% 10.0% 13.1 0.1 0.5 0.2 0.0 7.9
13-7 12.0% 6.0% 6.0% 13.4 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.0 11.3
12-8 14.2% 4.2% 4.2% 13.7 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 13.6
11-9 14.6% 2.3% 2.3% 14.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 14.3
10-10 13.3% 1.2% 1.2% 14.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 13.2
9-11 10.8% 0.7% 0.7% 15.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 10.7
8-12 7.6% 0.4% 0.4% 15.7 0.0 0.0 7.6
7-13 4.5% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 4.5
6-14 2.6% 2.6
5-15 0.9% 0.9
4-16 0.3% 0.3
3-17 0.0% 0.0
2-18 0.0% 0.0
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 4.7% 4.7% 0.0% 13.2 0.1 1.0 2.0 1.2 0.4 0.0 95.3 0.0%