UC Riverside
Big West
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+0.2#163
Expected Predictive Rating+5.5#90
Pace66.9#218
Improvement+2.1#85

Offense
Total Offense+0.5#168
First Shot-0.7#198
After Offensive Rebound+1.2#114
Layup/Dunks-3.7#306
2 Pt Jumpshots+3.6#24
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.3#172
Freethrows-0.9#247
Improvement+2.2#67

Defense
Total Defense-0.3#180
First Shot-0.3#190
After Offensive Rebounds+0.0#191
Layups/Dunks-2.4#277
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.5#306
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.7#70
Freethrows+0.9#115
Improvement-0.1#190
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 4.6% 7.0% 4.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 12.9 12.4 13.0
.500 or above 98.0% 99.7% 97.7%
.500 or above in Conference 99.4% 100.0% 99.2%
Conference Champion 1.6% 6.7% 0.6%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round4.6% 7.0% 4.2%
Second Round0.3% 0.5% 0.2%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: UC San Diego (Away) - 15.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b1 - 31 - 5
Quad 24 - 24 - 7
Quad 35 - 49 - 10
Quad 410 - 219 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 45   @ Oregon L 76-91 10%     0 - 1 -0.9 +8.9 -9.7
  Nov 08, 2024 33   @ BYU L 80-86 8%     0 - 2 +10.2 +8.6 +1.9
  Nov 12, 2024 161   @ California Baptist W 70-69 40%     1 - 2 +3.8 +1.5 +2.3
  Nov 19, 2024 64   @ Santa Clara L 54-96 16%     1 - 3 -31.0 -13.2 -18.9
  Nov 22, 2024 77   @ Colorado St. W 77-75 OT 18%     2 - 3 +11.9 +2.7 +9.1
  Nov 24, 2024 320   Alcorn St. W 69-52 87%     3 - 3 +5.1 -5.3 +11.1
  Nov 30, 2024 249   @ Idaho L 68-80 61%     3 - 4 -14.7 -2.7 -13.4
  Dec 05, 2024 127   @ Cal St. Northridge W 68-64 34%     4 - 4 1 - 0 +8.6 -2.4 +11.0
  Dec 07, 2024 317   Cal St. Fullerton W 75-68 86%     5 - 4 2 - 0 -4.7 -1.4 -3.2
  Dec 18, 2024 189   Montana St. W 83-80 65%     6 - 4 -0.8 +12.6 -13.3
  Dec 21, 2024 101   @ UNLV L 53-66 25%     6 - 5 -5.9 -10.4 +3.0
  Dec 29, 2024 119   St. Thomas W 81-79 OT 51%     7 - 5 +1.9 -3.6 +5.3
  Jan 02, 2025 305   @ Long Beach St. W 76-60 72%     8 - 5 3 - 0 +10.3 +5.0 +6.6
  Jan 04, 2025 67   @ UC Irvine L 57-81 17%     8 - 6 3 - 1 -13.5 -5.1 -9.1
  Jan 09, 2025 180   Hawaii L 76-83 64%     8 - 7 3 - 2 -10.4 -1.1 -9.0
  Jan 16, 2025 158   @ UC Santa Barbara L 63-66 40%     8 - 8 3 - 3 -0.1 -2.9 +2.5
  Jan 18, 2025 65   UC San Diego W 85-81 30%     9 - 8 4 - 3 +9.7 +14.0 -4.4
  Jan 23, 2025 67   UC Irvine W 84-80 OT 30%     10 - 8 5 - 3 +9.5 +6.3 +2.7
  Jan 25, 2025 258   @ Cal St. Bakersfield W 83-79 62%     11 - 8 6 - 3 +0.9 +15.6 -14.2
  Jan 30, 2025 216   UC Davis W 60-58 71%     12 - 8 7 - 3 -3.6 -0.4 -2.9
  Feb 01, 2025 276   Cal Poly W 80-62 80%     13 - 8 8 - 3 +9.1 +5.0 +4.9
  Feb 06, 2025 65   @ UC San Diego L 64-75 15%    
  Feb 08, 2025 258   Cal St. Bakersfield W 75-67 79%    
  Feb 13, 2025 216   @ UC Davis W 68-67 51%    
  Feb 15, 2025 158   UC Santa Barbara W 71-69 60%    
  Feb 20, 2025 305   Long Beach St. W 76-65 86%    
  Feb 22, 2025 276   @ Cal Poly W 82-78 64%    
  Feb 28, 2025 180   @ Hawaii L 69-70 43%    
  Mar 06, 2025 127   Cal St. Northridge W 77-76 54%    
  Mar 08, 2025 317   @ Cal St. Fullerton W 74-67 72%    
Projected Record 18 - 12 13 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.4 0.8 0.4 1.6 1st
2nd 0.0 0.4 3.1 5.7 3.0 0.2 12.4 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.4 5.8 17.2 19.9 8.8 1.0 53.1 3rd
4th 0.3 3.9 11.0 7.7 1.1 0.0 24.0 4th
5th 0.1 1.3 3.4 1.7 0.1 6.6 5th
6th 0.3 1.0 0.6 0.0 1.9 6th
7th 0.0 0.3 0.2 0.5 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
Total 0.0 0.6 2.8 8.3 18.5 25.4 24.1 14.9 4.8 0.6 Total



Big West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3 63.3% 0.4    0.2 0.2 0.0
16-4 17.1% 0.8    0.2 0.4 0.3
15-5 2.4% 0.4    0.0 0.1 0.2
14-6 0.0% 0.0    0.0
13-7 0.0%
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 1.6% 1.6 0.3 0.8 0.5



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3 0.6% 16.7% 16.7% 11.4 0.1 0.0 0.5
16-4 4.8% 10.8% 10.8% 12.2 0.0 0.3 0.2 4.3
15-5 14.9% 7.6% 7.6% 12.5 0.0 0.6 0.5 0.0 13.7
14-6 24.1% 5.5% 5.5% 12.9 0.4 0.7 0.2 0.0 22.8
13-7 25.4% 3.2% 3.2% 13.2 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.0 24.6
12-8 18.5% 2.7% 2.7% 13.5 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 18.0
11-9 8.3% 2.3% 2.3% 13.9 0.1 0.1 0.0 8.1
10-10 2.8% 1.1% 1.1% 14.3 0.0 0.0 2.8
9-11 0.6% 0.6
8-12 0.0% 0.0
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 4.6% 4.6% 0.0% 12.9 0.1 1.5 2.1 0.8 0.1 95.4 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.2%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.3%