UC Riverside
Big West
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -7.6 #295
Expected Predictive Rating -5.3 #249
Pace 68.1 #218
Improvement -3.3 #332

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #278 C+ F D C C
Defense #293 D B- F C+ C

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 42% #84 1.15 #192 +2.0 #110
2 Pt. Jumpers 21% #164 0.74 #187 +0.2 #169
Three Pointers 37% #277 1.11 #66 -0.5 #205
1st FG Attempt 1.05 #132 +1.7 #132
Freethrows 17.3 #191 74% #151 12.7 #172
Second Chance 22.6% #351 0.84 #352 0.19 #361
Turnovers 18.6% #290
Total Offense -3.8 #278

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 43% #62 1.19 #226 -3.6 #299
2 Pt. Jumpers 23% #89 0.88 #328 -2.6 #341
Three Pointers 33% #351 1.09 #285 +2.7 #90
1st FG Attempt 1.09 #294 -3.5 #293
Freethrows 17.2 #181 69% #48 11.8 #219
Second Chance 30.0% #145 0.97 #96 0.29 #114
Turnovers 13.0% #348
Total Defense -3.8 #293

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 0.4% #164 0.0% #166
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 2.8% #138 7.0% #303
Possession Length 17.7 #214 16.5 #70
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.13 #296 0.19 #244
Improvement -2.1 #309 -1.2 #255

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.2% 0.4% 0.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.4 14.9 15.7
.500 or above 0.7% 2.2% 0.4%
.500 or above in Conference 7.4% 17.0% 5.0%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 40.1% 22.7% 44.4%
First Four0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
First Round0.2% 0.4% 0.1%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: UC San Diego (Home) - 19.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 3
Quad 20 - 30 - 7
Quad 32 - 83 - 15
Quad 47 - 69 - 21


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Thu, Nov 6 319 @North Dakota W 74 - 70 46%  +5  1 - 0 -3 -3 B- F F +0 F A+ F
 Tue, Nov 11 56 @New Mexico L 68 - 82 4%  -5  1 - 1 -1 +6 A+ F D+ -8 D B F
 Sat, Nov 15 319 North Dakota L 74 - 76 69%  -0  1 - 2 -15 -9 B- F F -5 F A F
 Tue, Nov 18 147 @California Baptist L 57 - 80 15%  -15  1 - 3 -19 -18 F F F +0 B- B+ D
 Fri, Nov 21 222 @San Diego W 85 - 71 24%  +10  2 - 3 +14 +15 A+ C A+ -0 B+ C C-
 Mon, Nov 24 246 Grambling St. W 83 - 74 51%  -1  3 - 3 +1 +9 A+ F C -7 B+ C F
 Sat, Nov 29 227 @Utah Tech L 69 - 77 25%  -4  3 - 4 -9 +3 C+ C- C- -12 D- F F
 Thu, Dec 4 121 @UC Irvine L 60 - 73 12%  -11  3 - 5 0 - 1 -8 -5 F F A- -3 F A+ C-
 Sat, Dec 6 253 @Cal Poly W 88 - 84 31%  +7  4 - 5 1 - 1 +2 +13 B+ C- A+ -11 F A+ D-
 Sat, Dec 13 8 @BYU L 53 - 100 1%  -14  4 - 6 -24 -13 C F F -7 F A+ C
 Sat, Dec 20 135 @St. Thomas L 78 - 92 13%  -7  4 - 7 -9 +7 B F C+ -17 F C- F
 Tue, Dec 23 38 @UCLA L 65 - 97 2%  -14  4 - 8 -16 -8 C F F -5 B F D
 Thu, Jan 1 98 Hawaii L 45 - 88 18%  -21  4 - 9 1 - 2 -41 -18 F F D -27 F F C
 Thu, Jan 8 294 @Cal St. Bakersfield L 66 - 67 38%  -0  4 - 10 1 - 3 -5 -8 C F F +3 B+ F B
 Sat, Jan 10 108 UC San Diego L 69 - 78 20% 
 Thu, Jan 15 262 @Long Beach St. L 70 - 75 33% 
 Sat, Jan 17 232 Cal St. Fullerton L 80 - 81 48% 
 Thu, Jan 22 121 UC Irvine L 67 - 74 26% 
 Sat, Jan 24 171 @UC Davis L 71 - 81 19% 
 Thu, Jan 29 262 Long Beach St. W 73 - 72 55% 
 Sat, Jan 31 253 Cal Poly W 81 - 80 53% 
 Thu, Feb 5 232 @Cal St. Fullerton L 77 - 84 27% 
 Sat, Feb 7 211 @Cal St. Northridge L 75 - 83 24% 
 Thu, Feb 12 181 UC Santa Barbara L 72 - 75 39% 
 Sat, Feb 14 108 @UC San Diego L 66 - 81 9% 
 Thu, Feb 19 294 Cal St. Bakersfield W 75 - 72 61% 
 Sat, Feb 21 171 UC Davis L 74 - 78 37% 
 Thu, Feb 26 181 @UC Santa Barbara L 69 - 78 21% 
 Sat, Feb 28 211 Cal St. Northridge L 78 - 80 43% 
 Fri, Mar 6 98 @Hawaii L 62 - 78 7% 
Totals 9 - 21 6 - 14 -8 -4 C+ F D -4 D B- F




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.7 3rd
4th 0.2 0.8 0.9 0.3 0.0 2.2 4th
5th 0.2 1.5 2.2 0.7 0.0 4.7 5th
6th 0.1 1.6 3.4 1.1 0.1 6.3 6th
7th 0.1 1.5 5.1 2.4 0.2 9.2 7th
8th 0.1 1.6 6.1 4.1 0.4 0.0 12.3 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 2.1 7.0 6.3 1.0 0.0 16.5 9th
10th 0.0 0.5 3.2 8.4 7.5 1.5 0.1 21.2 10th
11th 0.5 2.6 6.7 9.1 6.1 1.6 0.1 26.7 11th
Total 0.5 2.7 7.2 12.4 16.7 17.7 15.6 12.0 7.9 4.4 1.9 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 Total



Big West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5 66.7% 0.0    0.0
14-6 15.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
13-7 0.0%
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5 0.0% 0.0 0.0
14-6 0.1% 10.0% 10.0% 14.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
13-7 0.3% 11.8% 11.8% 14.7 0.0 0.0 0.2
12-8 0.7% 2.2% 2.2% 15.3 0.0 0.0 0.7
11-9 1.9% 1.6% 1.6% 15.3 0.0 0.0 1.9
10-10 4.4% 0.6% 0.6% 15.6 0.0 0.0 4.3
9-11 7.9% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 7.8
8-12 12.0% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 11.9
7-13 15.6% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 15.6
6-14 17.7% 17.7
5-15 16.7% 16.7
4-16 12.4% 12.4
3-17 7.2% 7.2
2-18 2.7% 2.7
1-19 0.5% 0.5
0-20
Total 100% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 15.4 99.8 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.5%