UC Riverside
Big West
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+1.0#143
Expected Predictive Rating+5.1#97
Pace67.4#198
Improvement+2.3#100

Offense
Total Offense+2.0#115
First Shot+0.6#148
After Offensive Rebound+1.4#96
Layup/Dunks-3.3#299
2 Pt Jumpshots+3.8#23
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.9#145
Freethrows-0.7#232
Improvement+3.6#34

Defense
Total Defense-1.0#203
First Shot-0.9#210
After Offensive Rebounds-0.2#205
Layups/Dunks-2.7#286
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.6#304
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.7#71
Freethrows+0.8#123
Improvement-1.3#256
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 3.1% 5.1% 0.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 12.3 12.3 n/a
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round3.1% 5.1% 0.0%
Second Round0.2% 0.4% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 30 - 3
Quad 1b1 - 21 - 5
Quad 23 - 24 - 7
Quad 35 - 310 - 10
Quad 410 - 220 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 35   @ Oregon L 76-91 8%     0 - 1 +1.4 +10.3 -8.8
  Nov 08, 2024 20   @ BYU L 80-86 6%     0 - 2 +13.2 +9.1 +4.5
  Nov 12, 2024 163   @ California Baptist W 70-69 44%     1 - 2 +3.6 +3.2 +0.5
  Nov 19, 2024 56   @ Santa Clara L 54-96 14%     1 - 3 -29.1 -12.1 -18.2
  Nov 22, 2024 53   @ Colorado St. W 77-75 OT 12%     2 - 3 +15.6 +2.7 +12.6
  Nov 24, 2024 325   Alcorn St. W 69-52 89%     3 - 3 +4.3 -6.1 +11.2
  Nov 30, 2024 269   @ Idaho L 68-80 66%     3 - 4 -15.3 -2.5 -14.2
  Dec 05, 2024 115   @ Cal St. Northridge W 68-64 31%     4 - 4 1 - 0 +10.2 -2.8 +12.9
  Dec 07, 2024 351   Cal St. Fullerton W 75-68 93%     5 - 4 2 - 0 -9.0 -2.1 -6.8
  Dec 18, 2024 188   Montana St. W 83-80 70%     6 - 4 -1.3 +12.9 -14.0
  Dec 21, 2024 93   @ UNLV L 53-66 25%     6 - 5 -4.8 -7.2 +1.0
  Dec 29, 2024 131   St. Thomas W 81-79 OT 58%     7 - 5 +1.1 -4.0 +4.9
  Jan 02, 2025 292   @ Long Beach St. W 76-60 71%     8 - 5 3 - 0 +11.1 +6.2 +6.2
  Jan 04, 2025 73   @ UC Irvine L 57-81 18%     8 - 6 3 - 1 -13.4 -5.6 -8.5
  Jan 09, 2025 221   Hawaii L 76-83 75%     8 - 7 3 - 2 -13.0 -2.0 -10.7
  Jan 16, 2025 153   @ UC Santa Barbara L 63-66 42%     8 - 8 3 - 3 +0.2 -3.3 +3.2
  Jan 18, 2025 46   UC San Diego W 85-81 23%     9 - 8 4 - 3 +12.6 +15.5 -3.0
  Jan 23, 2025 73   UC Irvine W 84-80 OT 35%     10 - 8 5 - 3 +9.1 +5.6 +3.0
  Jan 25, 2025 245   @ Cal St. Bakersfield W 83-79 61%     11 - 8 6 - 3 +2.2 +15.7 -13.1
  Jan 30, 2025 238   UC Davis W 60-58 78%     12 - 8 7 - 3 -5.1 -1.4 -3.3
  Feb 01, 2025 186   Cal Poly W 80-62 69%     13 - 8 8 - 3 +13.8 +7.0 +7.6
  Feb 06, 2025 46   @ UC San Diego L 71-91 11%     13 - 9 8 - 4 -5.9 +5.9 -11.7
  Feb 08, 2025 245   Cal St. Bakersfield W 69-64 78%     14 - 9 9 - 4 -2.3 -1.6 -0.2
  Feb 13, 2025 238   @ UC Davis L 74-75 60%     14 - 10 9 - 5 -2.6 +6.6 -9.2
  Feb 15, 2025 153   UC Santa Barbara W 81-69 63%     15 - 10 10 - 5 +9.7 +13.5 -2.6
  Feb 20, 2025 292   Long Beach St. W 87-66 86%     16 - 10 11 - 5 +10.6 +13.7 -1.8
  Feb 22, 2025 186   @ Cal Poly L 100-112 OT 49%     16 - 11 11 - 6 -10.7 +5.0 -13.1
  Feb 27, 2025 221   @ Hawaii W 82-76 56%     17 - 11 12 - 6 +5.5 +10.5 -5.0
  Mar 06, 2025 115   Cal St. Northridge W 94-79 51%     18 - 11 13 - 6 +15.7 +16.5 -1.6
  Mar 08, 2025 351   @ Cal St. Fullerton W 64-59 86%     19 - 11 14 - 6 -5.5 -7.0 +1.9
  Mar 13, 2025 186   Cal Poly W 84-82 60%    
Projected Record 20 - 11 14 - 6




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 100.0 100.0 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
Total 100.0 Total



Big West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6 0.0%
13-7
12-8
11-9
10-10
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6 100.0% 3.1% 3.1% 12.3 0.0 2.2 0.9 0.0 96.9
13-7
12-8
11-9
10-10
9-11
8-12
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 3.1% 3.1% 0.0% 12.3 0.0 2.2 0.9 0.0 96.9 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 3.1% 100.0% 12.3 0.3 71.4 27.6 0.6
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 11.8%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 45.3%
Lose Out 39.9%