Wagner
Northeast
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -10.5 #330
Expected Predictive Rating -14.7 #350
Pace 63.1 #326
Improvement -4.7 #343

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #290 D+ C+ D+ D C
Defense #339 D+ C D- F+ D

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 40% #139 0.96 #357 -3.1 #288
2 Pt. Jumpers 21% #158 0.82 #89 +1.0 #116
Three Pointers 38% #237 1.03 #172 -1.1 #225
1st FG Attempt 0.95 #275 -3.2 #273
Freethrows 0.27 #293 70% #270 0.19 #304
Second Chance 32.5% #128 1.08 #108 0.35 #97
Turnovers 18.4% #287
Total Offense -4.5 #290

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 44% #38 1.11 #113 -2.3 #258
2 Pt. Jumpers 17% #296 0.79 #242 +1.2 #94
Three Pointers 39% #244 1.17 #349 -2.0 #277
1st FG Attempt 1.08 #283 -3.1 #284
Freethrows 0.38 #348 73% #232 0.28 #352
Second Chance 30.7% #180 1.06 #242 0.33 #217
Turnovers 13.5% #336
Total Defense -6.0 #339

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 0.0% #192 1.8% #331
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -6.3% #289 4.2% #263
Possession Length 18.5 #302 16.8 #102
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.12 #315 0.21 #309
Improvement -2.4 #315 -2.3 #307

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 6.0% 6.5% 5.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 0.5% 0.9% 0.1%
.500 or above in Conference 11.7% 19.9% 3.5%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 24.4% 14.4% 34.2%
First Four6.0% 6.4% 5.5%
First Round2.5% 2.7% 2.3%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Le Moyne (Home) - 49.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 2
Quad 20 - 10 - 3
Quad 30 - 30 - 6
Quad 48 - 138 - 18


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 50 @Virginia Commonwealth L 74 - 103 2% -12  0 - 1 -16 -0 D C D -13 C F D
 Fri, Nov 7 53 @Seton Hall L 61 - 68 2% -3  0 - 2 +6 +4 A+ A- F +1 C+ C C+
 Tue, Nov 11 169 @Fordham L 61 - 63 12% +2  0 - 3 +0 +2 D A D -2 B+ C F
 Sun, Nov 16 261 @Maryland Baltimore Co. L 70 - 71 OT 22% +1  0 - 4 -4 -10 F C F +6 A+ F A+
 Sat, Nov 22 78 @Georgetown L 75 - 92 4% -11  0 - 5 -7 +2 C+ C F -8 D+ C- D+
 Wed, Nov 26 327 @Manhattan W 103 - 101 OT 38% -8  1 - 5 -5 +14 A+ C+ D -19 D- F F+
 Tue, Dec 2 107 @Maryland L 63 - 89 6% -9  1 - 6 -19 -9 F F+ F -8 B- C F
 Wed, Dec 17 338 Maryland Eastern Shore W 78 - 64 64% +6  2 - 6 -0 +7 C- A A+ -6 F A+ C+
 Fri, Jan 2 355 @Chicago St. W 79 - 72 53% +4  3 - 6 1 - 0 -4 +8 D B+ A+ -12 C C+ F
 Sun, Jan 4 328 Stonehill L 60 - 69 61% -2  3 - 7 1 - 1 -22 -5 D B F -19 F+ C- F
 Thu, Jan 8 357 St. Francis (PA) L 69 - 71 75% +1  3 - 8 1 - 2 -19 -7 F B- D+ -13 D- D D+
 Sat, Jan 10 304 Mercyhurst L 69 - 70 53% +1  3 - 9 1 - 3 -12 -2 C C+ C- -11 F A+ F
 Sat, Jan 17 334 @New Haven L 74 - 80 40% -8  3 - 10 1 - 4 -14 +11 A A F -26 F A+ F
 Mon, Jan 19 343 @Fairleigh Dickinson L 61 - 68 43% -4  3 - 11 1 - 5 -16 -4 F C B- -13 D F A+
 Fri, Jan 23 296 @Le Moyne L 67 - 69 29% +2  3 - 12 1 - 6 -7 +2 A- D+ F -9 A F F
 Thu, Jan 29 300 Central Connecticut St. L 55 - 62 52% -2  3 - 13 1 - 7 -18 -15 F C C+ -4 C B- D+
 Sat, Jan 31 343 Fairleigh Dickinson W 75 - 72 OT 66% +1  4 - 13 2 - 7 -12 -4 F C+ B -8 F A+ D
 Thu, Feb 5 296 Le Moyne W 73 - 72 50%
 Sat, Feb 7 300 @Central Connecticut St. L 68 - 73 30%
 Thu, Feb 12 195 LIU Brooklyn L 69 - 74 31%
 Sat, Feb 14 328 @Stonehill L 63 - 66 38%
 Thu, Feb 19 304 @Mercyhurst L 64 - 69 31%
 Sat, Feb 21 357 @St. Francis (PA) W 73 - 72 53%
 Thu, Feb 26 334 New Haven W 67 - 64 63%
 Sat, Feb 28 355 Chicago St. W 75 - 68 73%
Totals 8 - 17 6 - 11 -11 -5 D+ C+ D+ -6 D+ C D-




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Northeast Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.1 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.4 3rd
4th 0.3 1.2 0.1 1.6 4th
5th 0.1 1.9 1.1 0.0 3.1 5th
6th 0.1 2.6 4.0 0.3 6.9 6th
7th 0.2 4.0 8.7 2.3 0.0 15.3 7th
8th 0.4 7.1 15.1 5.8 0.2 28.6 8th
9th 0.1 1.5 8.8 14.6 6.4 0.3 31.6 9th
10th 1.1 4.0 5.6 1.8 0.1 12.5 10th
Total 1.1 5.4 14.7 23.8 25.6 17.6 8.6 2.7 0.4 Total



Northeast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3
12-4
11-5
10-6 0.0%
9-7 0.0%
8-8 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3
12-4
11-5
10-6 0.4% 25.0% 25.0% 15.5 0.1 0.0 0.3
9-7 2.7% 12.9% 12.9% 16.0 0.4 2.4
8-8 8.6% 8.7% 8.7% 16.0 0.8 7.9
7-9 17.6% 8.0% 8.0% 16.0 1.4 16.2
6-10 25.6% 6.3% 6.3% 16.0 1.6 24.0
5-11 23.8% 4.9% 4.9% 16.0 1.2 22.6
4-12 14.7% 3.5% 3.5% 16.0 0.5 14.2
3-13 5.4% 2.8% 2.8% 16.0 0.2 5.3
2-14 1.1% 1.3% 1.3% 16.0 0.0 1.1
1-15
0-16
Total 100% 6.0% 6.0% 0.0% 16.0 94.0 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.1%
Lose Out 0.7%