Wagner
Northeast
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
Switch to All-time Team Page
Predictive Rating -10.2 320
Results Rating -11.3 333
Pace 64.2 299
Improvement -3.0 291

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense D 301 D+ C+ D D+ C-
Defense D 316 D+ C- D D- D

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 38% 200 F+ 49% 350 -3.5 302
2 Pt. Jumpers 46% 88 C 39% 155 +1.2 111
Three Pointers 39% 231 C 34% 184 -1.2 226
Shot Selection/Accuracy C- -0.4 238 D+ -3.1 296
1st FG Attempt D+ 0.95 292
Second Chance C+ 32.2% 132 C 1.04 169 C+ 0.33 121
Turnovers D 19.4% 325
Freethrows D+ 0.28 263 D+ 70% 251 D+ 0.20 282
Total Offense D -5.0 301

Assists Blocks (Opponents')
Close Shots D+ 43% 267 D 13.4% 314
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots C- 21% 237 B- 3.4% 68
Three Pointers C- 82% 225 B- 0.6% 106
Total D+ 51% 284 C- 6.1% 238

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 44% 37 C+ 57% 145 +2.9 278
2 Pt. Jumpers 17% 293 C- 39% 241 -1.1 100
Three Pointers 39% 250 D- 38% 341 +1.3 246
Shot Selection/Accuracy D +0.9 330 D+ +2.1 256
1st FG Attempt D+ 1.08 277
Second Chance C 30.6% 191 C- 1.06 238 C- 0.32 224
Turnovers D 14.1% 330
Freethrows D- 0.37 340 C 72% 186 D- 0.27 336
Total Defense D -5.2 316

Assists Blocks
Close Shots D+ 54% 293 D 6.7% 334
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots C- 28% 238 C- 3.8% 246
Three Pointers C- 85% 215 F+ -0.3% 364
Total D+ 60% 278 D- 3.5% 330

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 18.4 290 16.7 80
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.12 327 0.21 317
Improvement -3.5 #327 +0.5 #158

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Prediction Sensitivity
Pessimistic
5th Percentile 		Expected
50th Percentile 		Optimistic
95th Percentile
Predictive Rating Rank 336 323 307
Results Rating Rank 348 330 312
Conference Record 6 - 10 7 - 9 8 - 8
Conference Finish 8 8 6
NCAA Tourney Seed None None 16
NCAA Tourney Finish None None 1st Four

NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 7% 8% 7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 0% 0% 0%
.500 or above in Conference 44% 44% 44.0%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 2% 2% 1.7%
First Four7% 8% 7%
First Round3% 3% 3%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Next Game: New Haven (Home) - 61.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 2
Quad 20 - 10 - 3
Quad 30 - 40 - 7
Quad 410 - 1110 - 18


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 46 @Virginia Commonwealth L 74 - 103 2% -12  1% 0 - 1 F+ -15 C- -2 D+ C D F -11 C- F D
 Fri, Nov 7 54 @Seton Hall L 61 - 68 3% -3  23% 0 - 2 B- +6 C+ +3 A A- F B- +3 B- C- C+
 Tue, Nov 11 155 @Fordham L 61 - 63 11% +2  56% 0 - 3 C +1 C +1 D- A C C -0 B C- F
 Sun, Nov 16 234 @Maryland Baltimore Co. L 70 - 71 OT 19% +1  51% 0 - 4 C- -2 F -11 F C+ F A +9 A+ F A+
 Sat, Nov 22 71 @Georgetown L 75 - 92 4% -11  10% 0 - 5 D+ -6 C +0 B- C F D -5 D+ C- D+
 Wed, Nov 26 319 @Manhattan W 103 - 101 OT 38% -8  6% 1 - 5 D+ -5 A- +11 A+ B- D- F -16 F+ F F+
 Tue, Dec 2 104 @Maryland L 63 - 89 6% -9  9% 1 - 6 F -19 F -12 F F+ F D -5 B+ C F
 Wed, Dec 17 349 Maryland Eastern Shore W 78 - 64 73% +6  94% 2 - 6 C- -2 C+ +3 D A A+ D+ -4 F A+ C
 Fri, Jan 2 347 @Chicago St. W 79 - 72 49% +4  93% 3 - 6 1 - 0 C- -3 B +6 D B+ A+ F+ -8 C B- F
 Sun, Jan 4 341 Stonehill L 60 - 69 69% -2  35% 3 - 7 1 - 1 F -24 F+ -8 D- B F F -17 F C- F
 Thu, Jan 8 355 St. Francis (PA) L 69 - 71 77% +1  49% 3 - 8 1 - 2 F -20 F -11 F C+ D+ F+ -10 D- D- D+
 Sat, Jan 10 290 Mercyhurst L 69 - 70 51% +1  57% 3 - 9 1 - 3 D- -12 D -5 C- B- C- D- -7 F A+ F
 Sat, Jan 17 321 @New Haven L 74 - 80 39% -8  0% 3 - 10 1 - 4 D- -13 A- +10 A A F F -24 F A F+
 Mon, Jan 19 333 @Fairleigh Dickinson L 61 - 68 43% -4  3% 3 - 11 1 - 5 F+ -15 D- -7 F C B- F -10 D- F A+
 Fri, Jan 23 300 @Le Moyne L 67 - 69 31% +2  65% 3 - 12 1 - 6 D+ -7 C -0 A- D+ F D- -7 A F F
 Thu, Jan 29 303 Central Connecticut St. L 55 - 62 54% -2  29% 3 - 13 1 - 7 F -18 F -18 F C- C+ C -1 C B D
 Sat, Jan 31 333 Fairleigh Dickinson W 75 - 72 OT 66% +1  56% 4 - 13 2 - 7 D- -11 D- -6 F C+ B D -5 F A+ D
 Thu, Feb 5 300 Le Moyne W 79 - 78 54% +1  46% 5 - 13 3 - 7 D -10 C +1 A- B+ F F -11 F B- C
 Sat, Feb 7 303 @Central Connecticut St. L 67 - 84 32% -9  2% 5 - 14 3 - 8 F -22 D- -8 F C+ C- F -16 F F D+
 Thu, Feb 12 219 LIU Brooklyn L 57 - 67 35% -1  31% 5 - 15 3 - 9 F+ -16 F -20 F+ F F B +4 B B+ D
 Sat, Feb 14 341 @Stonehill W 68 - 57 46% +4  62% 6 - 15 4 - 9 C+ +2 C- -2 F A D+ B +4 A+ F C+
 Mon, Feb 16 219 @LIU Brooklyn L 65 - 83 18% -7  20% 6 - 16 4 - 10 F -18 D+ -3 C+ D- F F -17 F C D-
 Thu, Feb 19 290 @Mercyhurst W 83 - 80 OT 29% +4  70% 7 - 16 5 - 10 C -2 C +2 D+ B F+ D+ -3 D+ B- D-
 Sat, Feb 21 355 @St. Francis (PA) W 65 - 56 57% +3  85% 8 - 16 6 - 10 C- -3 F -12 F F+ F A +10 B B- C
 Thu, Feb 26 321 New Haven W 67 - 64 62%
 Sat, Feb 28 347 Chicago St. W 73 - 67 70%
Totals 9 - 17 7 - 11 -10 D -5 B- D+ C- D -5 C D+ D+



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings D F+ C C D+ 38% 46% 39% C- D+ C+ C C+ D D+ D+ D+ D C+ C- D- D+ 44% 17% 39% D D+ C C- C- D D- C D-
1.01 49% 39% 34% -3 0 0.95 32% 1.0 .33 19% .28 70% .20 1.16 57% 39% 38% +2 +1 1.08 31% 1.1 .32 14% .37 72% .20
Nov
3		 Virginia Commonwealth C- F C- A+ D+ 48% 21% 31% C+ D+ B D C D A+ C A F C- A+ C- C 47% 2% 51% F C- F+ F F D F A- D
0.97 36% 36% 44% -6 +1 0.90 33% 0.9 .29 20% .39 71% .28 1.35 62% 0% 36% +2 +3 1.13 41% 1.5 .62 13% .47 68% .32
Nov
7		 Seton Hall C+ F A+ A+ A+ 33% 14% 53% C+ A C+ A+ A- F F F F B- D+ A+ B B- 46% 17% 37% D B- F A+ C- C+ F A+ B-
0.95 29% 50% 48% +3 0 1.09 31% 1.2 .38 31% .27 42% .11 1.05 62% 13% 29% -5 +1 0.93 50% 0.8 .38 17% .45 50% .22
Nov
11		 Fordham C F B+ B- D- 27% 29% 45% D+ D- A- A A C F F F C A+ F A- A- 48% 20% 33% D B A+ F C- F F C- F
1.02 23% 43% 36% -6 -2 0.86 34% 1.2 .42 17% .12 50% .06 1.05 36% 67% 27% -8 +1 0.87 26% 1.3 .34 12% .40 71% .28
Nov
16		 Maryland Baltimore Co. F F A+ F F 50% 24% 26% C F C- B+ C+ F B F C+ A B C- A+ A+ 35% 27% 38% B- A+ F F F A+ F A- F
0.92 44% 54% 21% -8 0 0.87 27% 1.2 .32 20% .26 63% .16 0.94 53% 38% 17% -11 -1 0.77 32% 1.3 .42 24% .55 69% .38
Nov
22		 Georgetown C C- C- B C+ 37% 21% 42% B- B- C- C C F B C+ B D C- B- F+ D+ 42% 25% 33% C D+ B+ F C- D+ F F F
1.00 53% 36% 36% -1 0 1.00 28% 1.0 .28 21% .32 74% .24 1.23 61% 36% 39% +3 0 1.07 29% 1.4 .40 12% .43 89% .38
Nov
26		 Manhattan A- B- A A+ A+ 60% 12% 29% A A+ A F+ B- D- A+ C- A+ F A+ F F F+ 37% 23% 40% C F+ F D- F F+ F B- F
1.33 65% 50% 60% +16 +3 1.40 48% 0.9 .45 18% .42 74% .31 1.30 33% 54% 48% +3 0 1.07 36% 1.2 .43 12% .51 77% .39
Dec
2		 Maryland F F+ B F F 33% 23% 44% D+ F D+ F F+ F B A+ A D C A+ A+ A 50% 12% 38% F B+ F+ A- C F F C+ F
0.85 47% 42% 26% -8 -1 0.85 24% 0.7 .16 24% .32 83% .27 1.20 58% 17% 25% -8 +2 0.90 42% 0.9 .38 11% .68 71% .49
Dec
17		 Maryland Eastern Shore C+ F+ A- D+ D 34% 19% 47% C- D D- A+ A A+ A+ F B D+ F F B F 42% 20% 38% D F C+ A+ A+ C D- A C-
1.20 50% 44% 32% -3 0 0.96 26% 2.0 .51 8% .47 61% .28 0.98 68% 67% 29% +7 0 1.18 27% 0.3 .07 23% .28 64% .18
Jan
2		 Chicago St. B F C- A+ D 45% 23% 32% D D C A B+ A+ A+ D+ A+ F+ A+ A F B- 47% 26% 26% F C C- A B- F F F F
1.23 48% 36% 47% +1 0 1.04 36% 1.3 .48 12% .54 73% .39 1.12 36% 29% 50% -7 0 0.89 30% 0.8 .23 8% .46 85% .39
Jan
4		 Stonehill F+ F D+ A D- 52% 24% 24% C+ D- B C+ B F F A+ D+ F B+ F F F 47% 17% 36% D F D+ C- C- F F A- F
0.98 42% 33% 42% -7 +1 0.90 32% 1.1 .35 16% .18 100% .18 1.13 45% 50% 41% 0 +1 1.04 29% 0.9 .26 13% .36 63% .23
Jan
8		 St. Francis (PA) F A+ F F F 35% 26% 39% F+ F A- F+ C+ D+ C F D F+ D C- C+ D 40% 17% 44% F+ D- C- F D- D+ F F F
1.06 88% 17% 22% -2 -1 0.96 42% 1.0 .42 20% .37 63% .23 1.09 63% 38% 33% +1 +1 1.06 28% 1.1 .31 17% .35 84% .30
Jan
10		 Mercyhurst D F A+ A+ D 53% 8% 39% A- C- D+ A B- C- F+ F F D- C D F F+ 51% 22% 27% F F A+ A+ A+ F F F F
1.07 35% 50% 47% -4 +3 1.00 31% 1.3 .38 19% .30 56% .17 1.08 56% 45% 38% +2 +1 1.08 4% 0.0 .00 8% .35 81% .28
Jan
17		 New Haven A- A- B+ A+ A+ 36% 20% 44% D+ A A+ F A F F D F F F A+ F F 28% 15% 57% C- F C+ A+ A F+ C- F F
1.22 69% 44% 45% +12 0 1.27 50% 0.9 .46 28% .16 71% .11 1.32 69% 14% 58% +20 0 1.41 21% 0.4 .08 15% .27 93% .25
Jan
19		 Fairleigh Dickinson D- D+ C- F+ F 36% 36% 29% F F F A+ C B- D+ A+ B F A+ F F F 19% 44% 36% A+ D- F F F A+ F F+ F
1.05 56% 38% 31% -2 -2 0.93 19% 1.4 .27 14% .32 88% .28 1.17 43% 50% 38% +5 -4 1.03 41% 1.1 .45 24% .57 76% .43
Jan
23		 Le Moyne C B- A- A A- 45% 16% 39% B- A- C+ F+ D+ F F+ F F D- A A+ B+ A+ 45% 14% 40% D A F D- F F F C F
1.10 60% 43% 41% +6 +1 1.16 33% 0.9 .30 20% .25 58% .14 1.13 47% 17% 29% -11 +1 0.83 38% 1.1 .44 13% .64 71% .45
Jan
29		 Central Connecticut St. F F A+ F F 40% 7% 53% B- F C- C- C- C+ A+ F A C D A+ B+ B 43% 13% 43% F C A+ F B D D- B- D
0.92 41% 67% 17% -18 +2 0.70 31% 1.0 .31 12% .41 68% .28 1.03 65% 17% 30% -2 +1 1.00 18% 1.2 .21 15% .31 75% .24
Jan
31		 Fairleigh Dickinson D- F F B- F 46% 13% 40% B+ F C+ C+ C+ B B A+ A D B- F F F 52% 9% 39% F F A+ A+ A+ D A A+ A+
1.09 42% 29% 38% -6 +1 0.92 30% 1.0 .30 13% .39 83% .32 1.05 54% 60% 48% +8 +2 1.22 21% 0.4 .09 16% .19 36% .07
Feb
5		 Le Moyne C A B+ B- A 43% 22% 35% C A- D A+ B+ F B+ A- A F F+ F A- F 54% 15% 30% F+ F B C B- C D D D-
1.15 70% 40% 38% +7 0 1.17 27% 1.6 .42 20% .37 80% .29 1.14 68% 86% 29% +10 +2 1.26 21% 1.0 .21 20% .37 75% .28
Feb
7		 Central Connecticut St. D- F B+ F F 41% 20% 39% D+ F C- B+ C+ C- C- F D F F A F F 36% 43% 21% B+ F D- F F D+ F C F
1.02 39% 45% 27% -10 0 0.82 31% 1.2 .36 14% .25 71% .18 1.28 87% 28% 56% +13 -3 1.21 32% 1.7 .55 15% .56 77% .43
Feb
12		 LIU Brooklyn F D- C+ F F+ 38% 21% 40% D F+ F F F F B- F D- B D- C+ A+ A- 57% 17% 26% F B A+ C- B+ D F B F
0.81 50% 40% 26% -7 0 0.87 24% 0.8 .19 24% .36 53% .19 0.95 65% 38% 8% -6 +2 0.93 26% 1.0 .26 19% .45 62% .28
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Feb
14		 Stonehill C- C- F C+ F+ 36% 36% 28% F F A+ D A D+ B A B+ B A+ C A A+ 36% 16% 48% C- A+ C- F F C+ D+ F D
1.03 56% 17% 36% -8 -2 0.82 45% 0.9 .43 14% .32 78% .25 0.87 28% 38% 25% -17 0 0.68 28% 1.5 .41 21% .25 77% .19
Feb
16		 LIU Brooklyn D+ C- F A+ B- 41% 32% 27% F C+ A F D- F A+ F B F C F F F 49% 12% 39% F F C+ C- C D- B- D C+
1.02 56% 29% 50% +3 -1 1.05 44% 0.6 .26 24% .45 59% .27 1.30 58% 67% 53% +14 +2 1.35 33% 1.0 .33 17% .25 69% .17
Feb
19		 Mercyhurst C F A+ A C 30% 36% 34% F D+ B- B- B F+ A+ A A+ D+ A D+ F D 33% 33% 33% C D+ D+ A B- D- F A+ F
1.11 33% 50% 41% +1 -3 0.98 37% 1.1 .40 21% .51 80% .41 1.07 44% 44% 39% 0 -2 0.98 28% 0.9 .26 12% .41 63% .26
Feb
21		 St. Francis (PA) F A- F F F 25% 18% 57% D- F C+ F F+ F A A- A+ A B- A+ B- A- 44% 17% 40% F B F+ A+ B- C F+ A+ B-
1.00 73% 25% 28% -4 -1 0.93 35% 0.8 .29 23% .46 78% .36 0.86 52% 13% 32% -8 +1 0.88 33% 0.6 .21 18% .32 47% .15



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Northeast Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 2.3 2.3 5th
6th 18.8 18.8 6th
7th 7.6 18.2 25.8 7th
8th 10.2 36.6 4.7 51.4 8th
9th 1.7 1.7 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 10th
Total 11.9 44.2 44.0 Total



Northeast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3
12-4
11-5
10-6
9-7
8-8 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3
12-4
11-5
10-6
9-7
8-8 44.0% 8.2% 8.2% 16.0 3.6 40.4
7-9 44.2% 6.9% 6.9% 16.0 3.1 41.1
6-10 11.9% 6.4% 6.4% 16.0 0.8 11.1
5-11
4-12
3-13
2-14
1-15
0-16
Total 100% 7.4% 7.4% 0.0% 16.0 92.6 0.0%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 3.6% 100.0% 16.0 100.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 3.2%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 19.3%
Lose Out 6.0%