Wagner
Northeast
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -9.3 #316
Expected Predictive Rating -11.9 #329
Pace 65.7 #279
Improvement -4.6 #357

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #287 D+ B- D+ D+ C
Defense #325 C- D+ F D- D-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 40% #144 0.97 #342 -3.1 #287
2 Pt. Jumpers 23% #131 0.81 #102 +1.6 #92
Three Pointers 38% #254 1.05 #125 -0.9 #217
1st FG Attempt 0.97 #246 -2.4 #246
Freethrows 16.4 #237 69% #288 11.3 #262
Second Chance 32.3% #134 1.14 #78 0.37 #86
Turnovers 18.0% #264
Total Offense -4.3 #287

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 44% #50 1.10 #111 -1.8 #244
2 Pt. Jumpers 17% #293 0.80 #251 +1.0 #123
Three Pointers 40% #225 1.07 #269 -0.5 #201
1st FG Attempt 1.04 #222 -1.3 #223
Freethrows 21.1 #329 72% #174 15.2 #40
Second Chance 33.0% #268 1.09 #245 0.36 #274
Turnovers 13.1% #345
Total Defense -4.9 #325

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -0.4% #219 1.8% #324
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -4.4% #244 0.8% #194
Possession Length 18.0 #247 14.1 #1
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.14 #271 0.24 #347
Improvement -1.0 #250 -3.7 #350

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 10.5% 12.0% 8.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 18.9% 25.6% 9.2%
.500 or above in Conference 64.5% 75.2% 49.1%
Conference Champion 2.4% 3.6% 0.8%
Last Place in Conference 8.7% 4.5% 14.6%
First Four9.3% 10.3% 7.8%
First Round5.6% 6.6% 4.1%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Mercyhurst (Home) - 59.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 2
Quad 20 - 20 - 4
Quad 30 - 20 - 6
Quad 411 - 1011 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 49 @Virginia Commonwealth L 74 - 103 3%  -12  0 - 1 -15 +2 D+ C+ D -15 C- F D-
 Fri, Nov 7 53 @Seton Hall L 61 - 68 3%  -3  0 - 2 +6 +4 A+ A+ F +2 B C C+
 Tue, Nov 11 203 @Fordham L 61 - 63 18%  +2  0 - 3 -1 +0 F A+ D- -2 B C F
 Sun, Nov 16 267 @Maryland Baltimore Co. L 70 - 71 OT 28%  +1  0 - 4 -4 -11 F C F +7 A+ F A+
 Sat, Nov 22 103 @Georgetown L 75 - 92 6%  -11  0 - 5 -9 +1 C D+ F -9 F C- C
 Wed, Nov 26 311 @Manhattan W 103 - 101 OT 38%  -8  1 - 5 -4 +15 A+ B+ D -19 D+ F F
 Tue, Dec 2 107 @Maryland L 63 - 89 7%  -9  1 - 6 -19 -8 F F F -9 B C F
 Wed, Dec 17 341 Maryland Eastern Shore W 78 - 64 70%  +6  2 - 6 -1 +6 C- A+ A+ -6 F A+ C
 Fri, Jan 2 353 @Chicago St. W 79 - 72 53%  +4  3 - 6 1 - 0 -3 +9 D+ B+ A+ -11 C- B F
 Sun, Jan 4 340 Stonehill L 60 - 69 70%  -2  3 - 7 1 - 1 -24 -8 F B F -17 F D+ F
 Thu, Jan 8 361 St. Francis (PA) L 69 - 71 81%  +1  3 - 8 1 - 2 -21 -7 F C+ D- -14 F D- D-
 Sat, Jan 10 307 Mercyhurst W 68 - 66 59% 
 Sat, Jan 17 338 @New Haven L 65 - 66 47% 
 Mon, Jan 19 349 @Fairleigh Dickinson W 73 - 72 52% 
 Fri, Jan 23 291 @Le Moyne L 72 - 77 32% 
 Sun, Jan 25 209 @LIU Brooklyn L 69 - 79 18% 
 Thu, Jan 29 269 Central Connecticut St. W 72 - 71 51% 
 Sat, Jan 31 349 Fairleigh Dickinson W 76 - 70 72% 
 Thu, Feb 5 291 Le Moyne W 75 - 74 54% 
 Sat, Feb 7 269 @Central Connecticut St. L 68 - 74 30% 
 Thu, Feb 12 209 LIU Brooklyn L 72 - 76 37% 
 Sat, Feb 14 340 @Stonehill L 67 - 68 47% 
 Thu, Feb 19 307 @Mercyhurst L 65 - 69 37% 
 Sat, Feb 21 361 @St. Francis (PA) W 74 - 71 62% 
 Thu, Feb 26 338 New Haven W 68 - 63 68% 
 Sat, Feb 28 353 Chicago St. W 76 - 69 73% 
Totals 10 - 16 8 - 10 -9 -4 D+ B- D+ -5 C- D+ F




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Northeast Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.6 0.8 0.7 0.3 0.1 2.4 1st
2nd 0.1 0.7 2.7 3.3 1.6 0.3 0.0 8.7 2nd
3rd 0.0 1.1 4.8 5.3 1.8 0.2 0.0 13.2 3rd
4th 0.0 1.0 5.9 5.9 1.7 0.1 14.7 4th
5th 0.0 0.7 5.4 6.8 1.6 0.1 14.6 5th
6th 0.0 0.4 4.2 7.1 1.9 0.1 13.6 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 2.7 6.1 2.3 0.1 11.5 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 1.9 4.6 2.7 0.2 9.6 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 1.4 3.3 2.0 0.3 7.3 9th
10th 0.1 0.4 1.1 1.7 1.1 0.2 4.4 10th
Total 0.1 0.4 1.3 3.3 6.6 9.9 13.9 16.1 16.0 13.0 9.8 5.8 2.6 1.0 0.3 0.1 Total



Northeast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1 0.0
15-1 89.8% 0.3    0.2 0.1
14-2 68.9% 0.7    0.4 0.2 0.0
13-3 31.0% 0.8    0.3 0.4 0.2
12-4 9.6% 0.6    0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0
11-5 0.8% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-6 0.0%
9-7 0.0%
8-8 0.0%
Total 2.4% 2.4 1.1 0.9 0.4 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
15-1 0.3% 42.4% 42.4% 15.5 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2
14-2 1.0% 35.7% 35.7% 15.9 0.0 0.3 0.6
13-3 2.6% 30.2% 30.2% 16.0 0.0 0.8 1.8
12-4 5.8% 23.5% 23.5% 16.0 0.0 1.3 4.4
11-5 9.8% 17.5% 17.5% 16.0 0.0 1.7 8.1
10-6 13.0% 13.2% 13.2% 16.0 1.7 11.3
9-7 16.0% 10.5% 10.5% 16.0 1.7 14.3
8-8 16.1% 7.0% 7.0% 16.0 1.1 15.0
7-9 13.9% 6.0% 6.0% 16.0 0.8 13.1
6-10 9.9% 4.4% 4.4% 16.0 0.4 9.4
5-11 6.6% 3.4% 3.4% 16.0 0.2 6.3
4-12 3.3% 2.4% 2.4% 16.0 0.1 3.3
3-13 1.3% 1.1% 1.1% 16.0 0.0 1.3
2-14 0.4% 2.7% 2.7% 16.0 0.0 0.4
1-15 0.1% 0.1
0-16
Total 100% 10.5% 10.5% 0.0% 16.0 89.5 0.0%