Western Illinois
Ohio Valley
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -14.9 #358
Expected Predictive Rating -18.1 #356
Pace 64.2 #311
Improvement -0.7 #225

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #359 F D C D+ D-
Defense #335 F F D- D+ D

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 37% #211 0.92 #362 -5.2 #331
2 Pt. Jumpers 30% #33 0.66 #294 +2.1 #75
Three Pointers 33% #331 0.89 #313 -6.2 #342
1st FG Attempt 0.83 #361 -9.3 #361
Freethrows 16.1 #251 69% #276 11.2 #267
Second Chance 26.6% #291 0.97 #263 0.26 #296
Turnovers 16.7% #189
Total Offense -9.2 #359

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 43% #77 1.28 #317 -5.1 #331
2 Pt. Jumpers 17% #292 0.82 #279 +1.1 #112
Three Pointers 41% #200 1.12 #311 -2.0 #265
1st FG Attempt 1.14 #338 -6.0 #335
Freethrows 19.2 #277 74% #241 14.1 #71
Second Chance 33.5% #284 1.22 #337 0.41 #338
Turnovers 14.1% #321
Total Defense -5.7 #335

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -2.5% #325 1.6% #308
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -16.2% #360 10.4% #335
Possession Length 20.0 #359 16.3 #41
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.11 #329 0.24 #349
Improvement -3.1 #343 +2.3 #52

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 0.7% 1.6% 0.2%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 70.1% 57.0% 78.8%
First Four0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
First Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Tennessee Tech (Home) - 40.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 1
Quad 20 - 10 - 2
Quad 30 - 50 - 7
Quad 45 - 165 - 23


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 234 @Radford L 75 - 80 10%  -5  0 - 1 -6 +10 D+ A+ C -16 F F F
 Fri, Nov 7 20 @Iowa L 58 - 77 0%  -10  0 - 2 +0 +1 D- D C -3 F A+ F
 Tue, Nov 11 294 @Cal St. Bakersfield L 58 - 74 16%  -7  0 - 3 -20 -14 D F F -8 F B+ C-
 Fri, Nov 14 147 @California Baptist L 59 - 69 5%  -6  0 - 4 -6 -4 D F B+ -3 A- B F
 Fri, Nov 21 270 Coastal Carolina L 64 - 84 30%  -13  0 - 5 -29 -14 F B C -14 F F C+
 Sun, Nov 23 319 North Dakota L 69 - 78 41%  +1  0 - 6 -22 -13 D- D- F -8 F B- B-
 Tue, Dec 2 169 @Drake L 57 - 108 7%  -26  0 - 7 -49 -10 F F A- -44 F F D+
 Sat, Dec 13 319 @North Dakota W 69 - 66 OT 21%  +1  1 - 7 -4 -9 F A D- +6 A+ F A+
 Thu, Dec 18 240 @Lindenwood L 76 - 92 11%  -13  1 - 8 0 - 1 -17 -1 D C- B -15 F F D
 Mon, Dec 22 275 SIU Edwardsville L 61 - 66 30%  +3  1 - 9 0 - 2 -15 -14 F F F -0 B F A+
 Thu, Jan 1 235 @Tennessee Martin L 60 - 67 10%  +15  1 - 10 0 - 3 -8 -6 B- F F -2 B- B F
 Sat, Jan 3 218 @Southeast Missouri St. L 50 - 73 9%  -9  1 - 11 0 - 4 -23 -18 F F F -6 D F C+
 Thu, Jan 8 219 Tennessee St. L 68 - 90 20%  -14  1 - 12 0 - 5 -28 -9 F D- A- -19 F F D+
 Sat, Jan 10 313 Tennessee Tech L 69 - 72 40% 
 Tue, Jan 13 309 @Eastern Illinois L 60 - 69 19% 
 Sat, Jan 17 299 @Arkansas Little Rock L 63 - 73 17% 
 Thu, Jan 22 308 @Morehead St. L 63 - 72 20% 
 Sat, Jan 24 333 @Southern Indiana L 65 - 72 25% 
 Thu, Jan 29 218 Southeast Missouri St. L 66 - 75 21% 
 Sat, Jan 31 235 Tennessee Martin L 63 - 71 23% 
 Thu, Feb 5 313 @Tennessee Tech L 66 - 75 21% 
 Sat, Feb 7 219 @Tennessee St. L 64 - 79 9% 
 Tue, Feb 10 309 Eastern Illinois L 63 - 66 39% 
 Thu, Feb 12 299 Arkansas Little Rock L 66 - 70 35% 
 Thu, Feb 19 333 Southern Indiana L 68 - 69 45% 
 Sat, Feb 21 308 Morehead St. L 66 - 69 39% 
 Thu, Feb 26 275 @SIU Edwardsville L 59 - 70 15% 
 Sat, Feb 28 240 Lindenwood L 67 - 75 25% 
Totals 5 - 23 4 - 16 -15 -9 F D C -6 F F D-




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Ohio Valley Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 3rd
4th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 4th
5th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.4 5th
6th 0.2 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.9 6th
7th 0.0 0.3 1.0 0.6 0.1 2.0 7th
8th 0.1 0.7 2.0 1.5 0.2 0.0 4.4 8th
9th 0.0 0.4 1.9 3.8 2.6 0.5 0.0 9.2 9th
10th 0.0 0.7 3.1 7.4 8.2 4.8 0.9 0.0 25.1 10th
11th 2.6 8.6 14.2 16.1 11.2 4.7 0.7 0.0 57.9 11th
Total 2.6 8.6 14.8 19.1 18.9 14.9 9.9 5.8 3.3 1.3 0.5 0.2 0.0 Total



Ohio Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8 0.0% 0.0 0.0
11-9 0.2% 0.2
10-10 0.5% 1.9% 1.9% 16.0 0.0 0.5
9-11 1.3% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.0 1.3
8-12 3.3% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.0 3.3
7-13 5.8% 5.8
6-14 9.9% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 9.9
5-15 14.9% 14.9
4-16 18.9% 18.9
3-17 19.1% 19.1
2-18 14.8% 14.8
1-19 8.6% 8.6
0-20 2.6% 2.6
Total 100% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 100.0 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 2.6%