Western Illinois
Ohio Valley
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -16.2 #362
Expected Predictive Rating -21.1 #363
Pace 65.1 #279
Improvement -2.0 #272

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #360 F D C D+ D
Defense #337 D D D C- D-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 38% #207 0.91 #361 -5.2 #339
2 Pt. Jumpers 29% #34 0.65 #326 +1.7 #90
Three Pointers 33% #329 0.85 #351 -6.8 #350
1st FG Attempt 0.81 #365 -10.3 #365
Freethrows 0.29 #210 67% #333 0.20 #263
Second Chance 26.3% #298 0.91 #319 0.24 #332
Turnovers 16.8% #185
Total Offense -10.3 #360

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 45% #27 1.31 #340 -7.1 #357
2 Pt. Jumpers 16% #305 0.69 #71 +2.3 #25
Three Pointers 39% #246 1.07 #257 +0.0 #180
1st FG Attempt 1.12 #325 -4.8 #320
Freethrows 0.32 #228 74% #278 0.24 #257
Second Chance 33.6% #298 1.13 #314 0.38 #328
Turnovers 14.5% #312
Total Defense -5.9 #337

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -2.4% #317 2.0% #341
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -18.2% #364 7.5% #315
Possession Length 19.2 #343 15.9 #17
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.10 #345 0.25 #359
Improvement -2.6 #321 +0.6 #149

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed n/a n/a n/a
.500 or above 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 94.6% 86.3% 96.8%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Tennessee Tech (Away) - 21.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 1
Quad 20 - 10 - 2
Quad 30 - 50 - 7
Quad 43 - 183 - 25


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 234 @Radford L 75 - 80 9% -5  0 - 1 -6 +10 D A+ C+ -16 F F F
 Fri, Nov 7 21 @Iowa L 58 - 77 0% -10  0 - 2 +1 +1 D C- C+ -3 D- A+ F
 Tue, Nov 11 319 @Cal St. Bakersfield L 58 - 74 18% -7  0 - 3 -23 -15 D F F -8 D- C+ C
 Fri, Nov 14 134 @California Baptist L 59 - 69 4% -6  0 - 4 -5 -3 D+ F B -3 A- B- F
 Fri, Nov 21 239 Coastal Carolina L 64 - 84 20% -13  0 - 5 -27 -14 F B- D+ -12 D- F+ C
 Sun, Nov 23 282 North Dakota L 69 - 78 27% +1  0 - 6 -19 -14 D D+ F+ -5 F+ B B-
 Tue, Dec 2 162 @Drake L 57 - 108 5% -26  0 - 7 -48 -9 F F B+ -44 F F D+
 Sat, Dec 13 282 @North Dakota W 69 - 66 OT 13% +1  1 - 7 -1 -10 F A C- +9 A+ F A+
 Thu, Dec 18 240 @Lindenwood L 76 - 92 9% -13  1 - 8 0 - 1 -17 -1 D+ C- A- -15 F F F+
 Mon, Dec 22 252 SIU Edwardsville L 61 - 66 23% +3  1 - 9 0 - 2 -13 -13 D+ F+ F+ -1 B F A+
 Thu, Jan 1 203 @Tennessee Martin L 60 - 67 7% +2  1 - 10 0 - 3 -7 -5 C F D- -3 B A F
 Sat, Jan 3 238 @Southeast Missouri St. L 50 - 73 9% -9  1 - 11 0 - 4 -24 -18 F F F -8 D- F C
 Thu, Jan 8 230 Tennessee St. L 68 - 90 19% -14  1 - 12 0 - 5 -29 -10 F D+ A- -18 F F C-
 Sat, Jan 10 333 Tennessee Tech L 54 - 59 41% +2  1 - 13 0 - 6 -19 -19 F F F -1 B- B- D+
 Tue, Jan 13 321 @Eastern Illinois L 55 - 57 19% -4  1 - 14 0 - 7 -9 -14 F D- C- +5 A- C+ C-
 Sat, Jan 17 292 @Arkansas Little Rock L 79 - 86 14% -6  1 - 15 0 - 8 -12 +6 F+ D+ A+ -18 F+ D+ F
 Thu, Jan 22 299 @Morehead St. L 66 - 71 15% -1  1 - 16 0 - 9 -10 -5 F C+ A -5 B F D
 Fri, Jan 23 332 @Southern Indiana L 64 - 96 21% -22  1 - 17 0 - 10 -40 -11 F D- B+ -27 F F C-
 Thu, Jan 29 238 Southeast Missouri St. L 74 - 78 20% -2  1 - 18 0 - 11 -11 -0 D+ F A+ -11 F C+ B-
 Sat, Jan 31 203 Tennessee Martin L 44 - 84 16% -21  1 - 19 0 - 12 -46 -26 F F F+ -23 F F F
 Thu, Feb 5 333 @Tennessee Tech L 66 - 74 21%
 Sat, Feb 7 230 @Tennessee St. L 66 - 81 8%
 Tue, Feb 10 321 Eastern Illinois L 63 - 66 38%
 Thu, Feb 12 292 Arkansas Little Rock L 66 - 72 30%
 Thu, Feb 19 332 Southern Indiana L 65 - 68 41%
 Sat, Feb 21 299 Morehead St. L 67 - 72 31%
 Thu, Feb 26 252 @SIU Edwardsville L 56 - 70 10%
 Sat, Feb 28 240 Lindenwood L 68 - 77 21%
Totals 3 - 25 2 - 18 -16 -10 F D C -6 D D D




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Ohio Valley Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 8th
9th 0.0 0.7 1.0 0.2 0.0 2.0 9th
10th 1.1 4.6 5.0 1.4 0.1 12.3 10th
11th 11.3 26.3 28.5 15.7 3.6 0.3 0.0 85.7 11th
Total 11.3 26.3 29.6 20.3 9.4 2.7 0.4 0.1 0.0 Total



Ohio Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9
10-10
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9
10-10
9-11
8-12 0.0% 0.0
7-13 0.1% 0.1
6-14 0.4% 0.4
5-15 2.7% 2.7
4-16 9.4% 9.4
3-17 20.3% 20.3
2-18 29.6% 29.6
1-19 26.3% 26.3
0-20 11.3% 11.3
Total 100% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 11.3%