St. John's
Big East
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+15.3#15
Expected Predictive Rating+11.9#49
Pace71.9#97
Improvement-0.5#213

Offense
Total Offense+8.1#22
First Shot+2.6#101
After Offensive Rebound+5.4#4
Layup/Dunks+1.4#129
2 Pt Jumpshots+3.4#30
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.0#235
Freethrows-0.2#190
Improvement-0.6#238

Defense
Total Defense+7.2#18
First Shot+7.8#11
After Offensive Rebounds-0.6#229
Layups/Dunks+3.9#58
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.7#126
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.6#122
Freethrows+1.6#75
Improvement+0.2#175
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.5% 0.6% 0.1%
#1 Seed 3.6% 4.5% 1.2%
Top 2 Seed 9.5% 11.7% 4.0%
Top 4 Seed 27.7% 32.7% 15.2%
Top 6 Seed 47.8% 54.0% 32.4%
NCAA Tourney Bid 87.4% 90.9% 78.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 84.1% 88.2% 74.7%
Average Seed 6.1 5.8 7.0
.500 or above 99.3% 99.7% 98.2%
.500 or above in Conference 92.5% 95.5% 84.9%
Conference Champion 25.5% 30.2% 13.7%
Last Place in Conference 0.3% 0.1% 0.8%
First Four3.9% 3.2% 5.6%
First Round85.8% 89.5% 76.5%
Second Round62.4% 66.7% 51.6%
Sweet Sixteen31.9% 35.3% 23.5%
Elite Eight15.3% 17.2% 10.4%
Final Four6.9% 7.9% 4.3%
Championship Game3.0% 3.5% 1.6%
National Champion1.2% 1.5% 0.6%

Next Game: DePaul (Away) - 71.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 6 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a2 - 42 - 4
Quad 1b3 - 35 - 7
Quad 28 - 213 - 9
Quad 35 - 019 - 9
Quad 45 - 024 - 9


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 172   Fordham W 92-60 95%     1 - 0 +28.2 +13.1 +13.3
  Nov 09, 2024 238   Quinnipiac W 96-73 97%     2 - 0 +16.0 +9.7 +3.7
  Nov 13, 2024 290   Wagner W 66-45 98%     3 - 0 +11.2 +0.1 +13.0
  Nov 17, 2024 71   New Mexico W 85-71 84%     4 - 0 +18.8 +14.3 +4.5
  Nov 21, 2024 12   Baylor L 98-99 2OT 47%     4 - 1 +14.9 +8.2 +6.9
  Nov 22, 2024 93   Virginia W 80-55 81%     5 - 1 +30.8 +22.8 +11.0
  Nov 24, 2024 40   Georgia L 63-66 64%     5 - 2 +8.6 -1.1 +9.6
  Nov 30, 2024 232   Harvard W 77-64 97%     6 - 2 +6.2 +3.3 +2.9
  Dec 07, 2024 64   Kansas St. W 88-71 82%     7 - 2 +22.6 +11.3 +10.0
  Dec 11, 2024 176   Bryant W 99-77 95%     8 - 2 +18.2 +13.3 +2.5
  Dec 17, 2024 88   @ DePaul W 78-72 71%    
  Dec 20, 2024 75   @ Providence W 72-67 69%    
  Dec 28, 2024 207   Delaware W 90-69 97%    
  Dec 31, 2024 36   @ Creighton W 76-75 51%    
  Jan 04, 2025 74   Butler W 81-70 84%    
  Jan 07, 2025 53   @ Xavier W 77-75 58%    
  Jan 11, 2025 48   Villanova W 77-69 76%    
  Jan 14, 2025 90   Georgetown W 80-68 87%    
  Jan 18, 2025 117   @ Seton Hall W 69-60 81%    
  Jan 22, 2025 53   Xavier W 80-72 78%    
  Jan 28, 2025 90   @ Georgetown W 77-71 72%    
  Feb 01, 2025 75   Providence W 75-64 84%    
  Feb 04, 2025 13   Marquette W 77-74 60%    
  Feb 07, 2025 9   @ Connecticut L 72-77 32%    
  Feb 12, 2025 48   @ Villanova W 74-72 57%    
  Feb 16, 2025 36   Creighton W 78-72 71%    
  Feb 19, 2025 88   @ DePaul W 78-72 71%    
  Feb 23, 2025 9   Connecticut W 75-74 53%    
  Feb 26, 2025 74   @ Butler W 78-73 67%    
  Mar 01, 2025 117   Seton Hall W 72-57 91%    
  Mar 08, 2025 13   @ Marquette L 74-77 39%    
Projected Record 22 - 9 14 - 6




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big East Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.7 4.6 6.8 6.4 3.7 1.5 0.3 25.5 1st
2nd 0.0 0.7 3.6 7.1 7.3 4.0 1.1 0.1 24.0 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.0 4.0 6.8 5.1 1.6 0.2 0.0 18.9 3rd
4th 0.0 0.8 3.5 5.0 2.9 0.5 0.0 12.7 4th
5th 0.0 0.6 2.5 3.4 1.5 0.2 0.0 8.2 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 1.4 2.2 0.9 0.1 4.8 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 0.9 1.4 0.6 0.0 0.0 3.0 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.7 0.4 0.0 1.6 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.9 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.4 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 11th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.0 2.0 3.7 6.1 8.8 11.4 13.8 14.5 13.6 11.1 7.5 3.9 1.5 0.3 Total



Big East Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.3    0.3
19-1 100.0% 1.5    1.5 0.0
18-2 97.0% 3.7    3.4 0.3
17-3 85.0% 6.4    5.0 1.3 0.1
16-4 61.7% 6.8    4.2 2.3 0.3 0.0
15-5 33.8% 4.6    1.8 2.1 0.6 0.1
14-6 12.0% 1.7    0.4 0.7 0.5 0.1 0.0
13-7 2.2% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
12-8 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0% 0.0    0.0
10-10 0.0%
Total 25.5% 25.5 16.7 6.9 1.6 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.3% 100.0% 58.6% 41.4% 1.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 100.0%
19-1 1.5% 100.0% 46.7% 53.3% 1.6 0.8 0.6 0.1 0.0 100.0%
18-2 3.9% 100.0% 42.6% 57.4% 2.1 1.1 1.5 0.9 0.3 0.0 0.0 100.0%
17-3 7.5% 100.0% 36.5% 63.5% 2.8 1.0 2.1 2.4 1.5 0.5 0.1 0.0 100.0%
16-4 11.1% 100.0% 30.5% 69.5% 3.9 0.4 1.3 2.8 3.3 2.0 1.0 0.3 0.0 100.0%
15-5 13.6% 99.8% 26.5% 73.2% 5.0 0.1 0.3 1.6 3.1 3.5 2.8 1.6 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.7%
14-6 14.5% 98.9% 21.8% 77.1% 6.3 0.0 0.0 0.4 1.4 2.6 3.4 3.4 2.0 0.8 0.2 0.0 0.2 98.6%
13-7 13.8% 96.3% 17.4% 78.9% 7.5 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.0 2.1 3.2 3.2 2.2 1.0 0.2 0.0 0.5 95.5%
12-8 11.4% 89.3% 13.8% 75.6% 8.5 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.7 1.5 2.5 2.6 2.0 0.7 0.0 1.2 87.6%
11-9 8.8% 77.8% 9.7% 68.1% 9.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.1 1.6 2.2 1.3 0.0 2.0 75.4%
10-10 6.1% 58.2% 7.8% 50.4% 9.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.2 1.2 0.0 2.5 54.7%
9-11 3.7% 30.7% 5.5% 25.2% 10.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.1 2.6 26.7%
8-12 2.0% 9.8% 3.1% 6.7% 11.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 1.8 6.9%
7-13 1.0% 3.1% 2.3% 0.8% 10.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 0.8%
6-14 0.5% 1.2% 1.2% 12.3 0.0 0.0 0.5
5-15 0.2% 1.2% 1.2% 12.0 0.0 0.2
4-16 0.0% 0.0
3-17 0.0% 0.0 0.0
2-18 0.0% 0.0
1-19 0.0% 0.0
0-20
Total 100% 87.4% 21.0% 66.4% 6.1 3.6 5.9 8.2 10.0 9.8 10.3 10.5 9.6 8.0 7.0 4.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 12.6 84.1%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.2% 100.0% 1.1 85.2 14.8
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.1% 100.0% 1.4 64.5 35.5