Ball St.
Mid-American
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-4.9#249
Expected Predictive Rating-7.8#297
Pace66.5#232
Improvement+2.8#60

Offense
Total Offense-0.9#204
First Shot+0.8#151
After Offensive Rebound-1.6#284
Layup/Dunks+0.0#190
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.2#304
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.1#212
Freethrows+4.1#9
Improvement+4.9#9

Defense
Total Defense-4.0#292
First Shot-4.5#318
After Offensive Rebounds+0.5#138
Layups/Dunks-1.9#253
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.2#84
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.2#213
Freethrows-3.6#356
Improvement-2.1#292
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 3.1% 4.0% 2.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.7 15.6 15.9
.500 or above 22.6% 36.4% 15.0%
.500 or above in Conference 56.7% 75.5% 46.3%
Conference Champion 0.4% 1.0% 0.1%
Last Place in Conference 0.9% 0.3% 1.3%
First Four1.4% 1.2% 1.5%
First Round2.6% 3.5% 2.1%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Central Michigan (Away) - 35.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 20 - 20 - 2
Quad 32 - 53 - 8
Quad 410 - 913 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 283   @ Georgia St. L 66-71 47%     0 - 1 -9.2 -6.9 -2.5
  Nov 13, 2024 76   @ Dayton L 69-77 9%     0 - 2 +2.0 -1.4 +3.5
  Nov 16, 2024 213   Indiana St. L 84-94 52%     0 - 3 -15.5 -4.7 -9.5
  Nov 20, 2024 331   Detroit Mercy L 59-70 79%     0 - 4 -24.4 -16.4 -8.5
  Nov 25, 2024 247   Eastern Kentucky W 63-61 50%     1 - 4 -2.8 -10.7 +8.0
  Nov 27, 2024 209   Richmond L 60-73 40%     1 - 5 -15.4 -4.5 -12.5
  Dec 08, 2024 263   @ SIU Edwardsville L 69-82 43%     1 - 6 -16.0 +1.5 -18.5
  Dec 14, 2024 353   @ Bellarmine W 86-82 71%     2 - 6 -6.7 +12.4 -18.8
  Dec 21, 2024 261   Evansville W 80-43 63%     3 - 6 +28.6 +14.2 +17.7
  Jan 04, 2025 160   @ Kent St. W 75-67 22%     4 - 6 1 - 0 +11.0 +3.6 +7.0
  Jan 07, 2025 151   Miami (OH) L 72-80 38%     4 - 7 1 - 1 -9.9 -1.6 -8.3
  Jan 11, 2025 288   Bowling Green W 91-69 69%     5 - 7 2 - 1 +12.1 +9.6 +1.5
  Jan 14, 2025 146   @ Ohio L 71-86 20%     5 - 8 2 - 2 -11.1 +1.9 -13.6
  Jan 18, 2025 196   Toledo L 75-93 48%     5 - 9 2 - 3 -22.3 +3.3 -27.3
  Jan 21, 2025 225   @ Central Michigan L 67-71 36%    
  Jan 25, 2025 356   @ Northern Illinois W 76-70 72%    
  Jan 28, 2025 304   Western Michigan W 78-72 71%    
  Feb 01, 2025 330   @ Buffalo W 76-73 60%    
  Feb 04, 2025 123   @ Akron L 72-82 17%    
  Feb 08, 2025 255   Southern Miss W 75-72 63%    
  Feb 11, 2025 314   Eastern Michigan W 77-71 73%    
  Feb 15, 2025 356   Northern Illinois W 79-67 86%    
  Feb 18, 2025 196   @ Toledo L 76-82 29%    
  Feb 22, 2025 330   Buffalo W 79-71 79%    
  Feb 25, 2025 123   Akron L 74-79 34%    
  Mar 01, 2025 288   @ Bowling Green L 74-75 48%    
  Mar 04, 2025 225   Central Michigan W 70-69 56%    
  Mar 07, 2025 151   @ Miami (OH) L 70-78 21%    
Projected Record 12 - 16 9 - 9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mid-American Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.0 0.4 1st
2nd 0.1 0.5 0.8 0.2 0.0 1.7 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 1.5 2.5 0.8 0.0 4.9 3rd
4th 0.0 0.3 2.8 5.8 2.4 0.1 11.4 4th
5th 0.0 0.4 4.3 8.2 3.7 0.3 16.9 5th
6th 0.5 4.5 9.6 5.1 0.6 20.2 6th
7th 0.4 3.9 9.1 5.4 0.7 0.0 19.5 7th
8th 0.1 2.0 6.5 3.6 0.6 12.7 8th
9th 0.0 1.0 3.2 2.5 0.4 0.0 7.1 9th
10th 0.3 1.6 1.7 0.3 0.0 3.9 10th
11th 0.1 0.5 0.6 0.1 0.0 1.3 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 12th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.9 3.3 7.3 13.7 18.0 20.2 16.9 11.6 5.7 1.8 0.5 0.1 Total



Mid-American Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 60.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
14-4 48.1% 0.3    0.1 0.1 0.1
13-5 6.1% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-6 0.4% 0.0    0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.4% 0.4 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 0.1% 0.1
14-4 0.5% 13.5% 13.5% 14.4 0.0 0.0 0.5
13-5 1.8% 9.9% 9.9% 15.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 1.6
12-6 5.7% 8.1% 8.1% 15.5 0.0 0.2 0.3 5.2
11-7 11.6% 6.0% 6.0% 15.6 0.0 0.2 0.5 10.9
10-8 16.9% 4.1% 4.1% 15.9 0.1 0.6 16.2
9-9 20.2% 3.0% 3.0% 16.0 0.0 0.6 19.6
8-10 18.0% 1.4% 1.4% 16.0 0.3 17.7
7-11 13.7% 0.9% 0.9% 16.0 0.1 13.6
6-12 7.3% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 7.3
5-13 3.3% 3.3
4-14 0.9% 0.9
3-15 0.1% 0.1
2-16 0.0% 0.0
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 3.1% 3.1% 0.0% 15.7 0.1 0.7 2.3 96.9 0.0%