IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Ball St.
Mid-American
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating	-6.1	#280
Expected Predictive Rating	-19.8	#361

Pace	68.5	#203
Improvement	-1.2	#305

Offense
Total Offense	-3.2	#269

First Shot	-0.8	#211
After Offensive Rebound	-2.4	#300

Layup/Dunks	-6.2	#338
2 Pt Jumpshots	-0.6	#208
3 Pt Jumpshots	-0.7	#203
Freethrows	+6.6	#5

Improvement	-0.8	#301

Defense
Total Defense	-2.9	#265

First Shot	-5.9	#332
After Offensive Rebounds	+2.9	#30

Layups/Dunks	-5.4	#339
2 Pt Jumpshots	-1.1	#260
3 Pt Jumpshots	+4.5	#48
Freethrows	-3.8	#337

Improvement	-0.4	#254

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
#1 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 2 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 4 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 6 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid	2.2%	2.9%	1.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Average Seed	15.6	15.5	15.7

.500 or above	16.3%	27.0%	10.7%
.500 or above in Conference	37.8%	46.7%	33.1%
Conference Champion	1.6%	2.5%	1.2%
Last Place in Conference	10.4%	7.1%	12.1%

First Four	1.1%	1.2%	1.0%
First Round	1.7%	2.4%	1.3%
Second Round	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%
Sweet Sixteen	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Elite Eight	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Final Four	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Championship Game	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
National Champion	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Next Game: Eastern Kentucky (Neutral) - 34.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Not in Tournament

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	0 - 0	0 - 0
Quad 1b	0 - 1	0 - 1
Quad 2	0 - 2	0 - 3
Quad 3	2 - 6	2 - 9
Quad 4	8 - 8	10 - 18

Date	Opponent		Result/Prediction			Record	Conf		Rating	Offense	Defense
Nov 04, 2024	229	@ Georgia St.	L	66-71	29%	0 - 1			-5.3	-4.9	-0.6
Nov 13, 2024	60	@ Dayton	L	69-77	6%	0 - 2			+3.9	+2.1	+1.9
Nov 16, 2024	191	Indiana St.	L	84-94	43%	0 - 3			-14.4	-2.7	-10.4
Nov 20, 2024	328	Detroit Mercy	L	59-70	73%	0 - 4			-23.5	-17.0	-7.0
Nov 25, 2024	199	Eastern Kentucky	L	72-76	35%
Nov 27, 2024	201	Richmond	L	67-71	35%
Dec 08, 2024	272	@ SIU Edwardsville	L	67-70	38%
Dec 14, 2024	336	@ Bellarmine	W	70-69	55%
Dec 21, 2024	299	Evansville	W	75-71	64%
Jan 04, 2025	123	@ Kent St.	L	63-75	14%
Jan 07, 2025	228	Miami (OH)	W	72-71	51%
Jan 11, 2025	262	Bowling Green	W	74-72	58%
Jan 14, 2025	158	@ Ohio	L	70-79	21%
Jan 18, 2025	137	Toledo	L	73-78	33%
Jan 21, 2025	204	@ Central Michigan	L	65-72	26%
Jan 25, 2025	325	@ Northern Illinois	L	70-71	50%
Jan 28, 2025	323	Western Michigan	W	75-69	69%
Feb 01, 2025	331	@ Buffalo	W	75-74	52%
Feb 04, 2025	140	@ Akron	L	66-77	18%
Feb 11, 2025	300	Eastern Michigan	W	70-66	65%
Feb 15, 2025	325	Northern Illinois	W	73-67	69%
Feb 18, 2025	137	@ Toledo	L	70-81	17%
Feb 22, 2025	331	Buffalo	W	78-71	72%
Feb 25, 2025	140	Akron	L	69-74	34%
Mar 01, 2025	262	@ Bowling Green	L	71-75	37%
Mar 04, 2025	204	Central Michigan	L	68-69	47%
Mar 07, 2025	228	@ Miami (OH)	L	68-74	31%
Projected Record						10 - 17	8 - 10

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected Mid-American Finish

	0-18	1-17	2-16	3-15	4-14	5-13	6-12	7-11	8-10	9-9	10-8	11-7	12-6	13-5	14-4	15-3	16-2	17-1	18-0		Total
1st												0.0	0.1	0.4	0.5	0.4	0.2	0.1	0.0		1.6	1st
2nd										0.0	0.0	0.2	1.0	1.3	0.7	0.1	0.0				3.4	2nd
3rd										0.0	0.4	1.7	2.1	0.8	0.1						5.1	3rd
4th									0.0	0.4	2.4	3.2	1.1	0.1							7.2	4th
5th									0.4	2.7	4.3	1.6	0.2								9.1	5th
6th							0.0	0.3	2.6	5.3	2.3	0.2									10.7	6th
7th						0.0	0.2	2.7	5.6	3.1	0.3	0.0									11.9	7th
8th					0.0	0.3	2.6	5.9	3.7	0.6											13.1	8th
9th				0.0	0.3	2.4	5.4	3.7	0.7	0.0											12.5	9th
10th			0.0	0.4	2.1	4.6	3.1	0.7	0.0												10.9	10th
11th		0.0	0.4	1.9	3.4	2.2	0.6	0.0													8.6	11th
12th	0.2	0.7	1.6	2.0	1.2	0.3	0.0														5.8	12th

Total	0.2	0.7	2.0	4.3	7.0	9.9	12.0	13.3	13.1	12.1	9.6	7.0	4.4	2.6	1.3	0.6	0.2	0.1	0.0			Total

Mid-American Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total		Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way	7-Way	8-Way
18-0	100.0%	0.0		0.0
17-1	100.0%	0.1		0.1	0.0
16-2	91.0%	0.2		0.1	0.0	0.0
15-3	78.7%	0.4		0.3	0.1	0.0
14-4	38.6%	0.5		0.2	0.2	0.1	0.0	0.0
13-5	14.0%	0.4		0.1	0.2	0.1	0.0
12-6	1.8%	0.1		0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
11-7	0.1%	0.0				0.0		0.0
10-8	0.0%
9-9	0.0%

Total	1.6%	1.6		0.8	0.6	0.2	0.1	0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance		Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid		At-Large if not Auto
18-0	0.0%																		0.0					0.0
17-1	0.1%		33.3%	33.3%		13.0													0.0	0.0	0.0			0.0
16-2	0.2%		25.6%	25.6%		13.9														0.0	0.0	0.0		0.1
15-3	0.6%		19.9%	19.9%		14.3														0.0	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.4
14-4	1.3%		14.2%	14.2%		14.9														0.0	0.1	0.1	0.0	1.1
13-5	2.6%		9.9%	9.9%		15.4														0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	2.4
12-6	4.4%		7.6%	7.6%		15.6															0.0	0.1	0.2	4.1
11-7	7.0%		4.9%	4.9%		15.9															0.0	0.0	0.3	6.6
10-8	9.6%		3.3%	3.3%		15.9																0.0	0.3	9.3
9-9	12.1%		2.7%	2.7%		16.0																0.0	0.3	11.8
8-10	13.1%		1.1%	1.1%		16.0																	0.2	12.9
7-11	13.3%		0.4%	0.4%		16.0																	0.1	13.2
6-12	12.0%		0.0%	0.0%		16.0																	0.0	12.0
5-13	9.9%																							9.9
4-14	7.0%																							7.0
3-15	4.3%																							4.3
2-16	2.0%																							2.0
1-17	0.7%																							0.7
0-18	0.2%																							0.2

Total	100%		2.2%	2.2%	0.0%	15.6													0.0	0.0	0.2	0.4	1.5	97.8		0.0%