Fairleigh Dickinson
Northeast
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-12.6#347
Expected Predictive Rating-8.7#292
Pace78.5#23
Improvement+0.8#99

Offense
Total Offense-4.0#286
First Shot-2.1#239
After Offensive Rebound-1.9#271
Layup/Dunks+0.8#147
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.3#240
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.4#223
Freethrows-0.2#200
Improvement+0.4#119

Defense
Total Defense-8.6#363
First Shot-6.0#335
After Offensive Rebounds-2.7#319
Layups/Dunks-6.5#343
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.9#290
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.5#165
Freethrows+2.0#82
Improvement+0.4#122
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 4.9% 7.2% 4.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 6.2% 13.4% 4.3%
.500 or above in Conference 41.5% 51.8% 38.8%
Conference Champion 4.6% 7.1% 4.0%
Last Place in Conference 18.4% 12.3% 20.0%
First Four4.8% 6.8% 4.2%
First Round1.8% 2.9% 1.5%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: St. Peter's (Home) - 20.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 3
Quad 20 - 30 - 6
Quad 30 - 30 - 9
Quad 49 - 119 - 20


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 38   @ Miami (FL) L 72-113 1%     0 - 1 -26.5 +0.1 -24.2
  Nov 10, 2024 17   @ Creighton L 70-96 1%     0 - 2 -8.7 -2.7 -3.2
  Nov 13, 2024 65   @ Nebraska L 60-86 2%     0 - 3 -14.6 -8.2 -5.6
  Nov 17, 2024 329   Manhattan W 85-82 50%     1 - 3 -9.5 +7.2 -16.7
  Nov 20, 2024 293   @ Army L 70-84 21%     1 - 4 -17.9 -5.6 -12.0
  Nov 26, 2024 180   St. Peter's L 67-76 21%    
  Dec 01, 2024 271   Fairfield L 75-79 36%    
  Dec 04, 2024 162   @ Fordham L 72-87 8%    
  Dec 11, 2024 69   @ Villanova L 66-90 1%    
  Dec 18, 2024 121   @ La Salle L 69-88 4%    
  Dec 21, 2024 90   @ Minnesota L 61-82 3%    
  Dec 28, 2024 138   @ Boston College L 69-86 6%    
  Jan 05, 2025 281   @ Wagner L 62-71 20%    
  Jan 10, 2025 337   @ Le Moyne L 76-81 34%    
  Jan 12, 2025 342   St. Francis (PA) W 80-77 59%    
  Jan 18, 2025 254   Central Connecticut St. L 73-78 33%    
  Jan 20, 2025 350   @ Chicago St. L 79-82 41%    
  Jan 26, 2025 343   @ Stonehill L 75-78 38%    
  Jan 30, 2025 337   Le Moyne W 79-78 55%    
  Feb 01, 2025 359   Mercyhurst W 75-70 66%    
  Feb 06, 2025 254   @ Central Connecticut St. L 70-81 17%    
  Feb 08, 2025 281   Wagner L 65-68 38%    
  Feb 13, 2025 350   Chicago St. W 82-79 62%    
  Feb 15, 2025 338   @ LIU Brooklyn L 80-84 35%    
  Feb 20, 2025 359   @ Mercyhurst L 72-73 45%    
  Feb 22, 2025 342   @ St. Francis (PA) L 77-80 38%    
  Feb 27, 2025 343   Stonehill W 78-75 59%    
  Mar 01, 2025 338   LIU Brooklyn W 83-81 55%    
Projected Record 9 - 19 7 - 9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Northeast Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 1.1 1.4 1.1 0.5 0.2 0.0 4.6 1st
2nd 0.0 0.9 2.8 2.9 1.4 0.2 0.0 8.2 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.3 4.4 3.7 1.2 0.1 0.0 10.8 3rd
4th 0.0 1.4 5.3 4.4 1.0 0.0 12.2 4th
5th 0.0 1.3 5.9 5.1 1.0 0.1 13.4 5th
6th 0.1 1.2 5.5 5.5 1.0 0.0 13.3 6th
7th 0.1 1.3 5.2 5.5 1.1 0.0 13.2 7th
8th 0.0 0.3 1.8 4.7 4.8 1.2 0.0 12.8 8th
9th 0.3 1.2 2.7 3.7 2.8 0.8 0.1 11.6 9th
Total 0.3 1.2 3.0 5.6 8.9 11.9 13.6 14.0 12.9 10.6 7.9 5.2 2.9 1.3 0.5 0.2 0.0 Total



Northeast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
15-1 100.0% 0.2    0.2 0.0
14-2 95.4% 0.5    0.4 0.1
13-3 83.4% 1.1    0.8 0.3 0.0
12-4 48.1% 1.4    0.7 0.6 0.1 0.0
11-5 21.7% 1.1    0.3 0.5 0.3 0.0
10-6 4.4% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
9-7 0.0% 0.0    0.0
8-8 0.0%
Total 4.6% 4.6 2.4 1.6 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0 0.0% 0.0 0.0
15-1 0.2% 34.4% 34.4% 15.9 0.0 0.1 0.1
14-2 0.5% 27.0% 27.0% 15.9 0.0 0.1 0.4
13-3 1.3% 21.8% 21.8% 16.0 0.0 0.3 1.0
12-4 2.9% 18.8% 18.8% 16.0 0.0 0.5 2.3
11-5 5.2% 14.6% 14.6% 16.0 0.8 4.5
10-6 7.9% 10.5% 10.5% 16.0 0.8 7.0
9-7 10.6% 6.8% 6.8% 16.0 0.7 9.9
8-8 12.9% 5.0% 5.0% 16.0 0.7 12.3
7-9 14.0% 3.7% 3.7% 16.0 0.5 13.4
6-10 13.6% 1.9% 1.9% 16.0 0.3 13.3
5-11 11.9% 1.0% 1.0% 16.0 0.1 11.8
4-12 8.9% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.0 8.9
3-13 5.6% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 5.6
2-14 3.0% 3.0
1-15 1.2% 1.2
0-16 0.3% 0.3
Total 100% 4.9% 4.9% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 4.9 95.1 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.2%