Houston Christian
Southland
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-7.4#295
Expected Predictive Rating-7.1#288
Pace63.2#309
Improvement+1.3#128

Offense
Total Offense-3.2#264
First Shot-1.9#227
After Offensive Rebound-1.4#265
Layup/Dunks+2.5#93
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.1#337
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.4#255
Freethrows+1.1#105
Improvement+0.2#176

Defense
Total Defense-4.2#300
First Shot-5.5#337
After Offensive Rebounds+1.3#74
Layups/Dunks-10.0#364
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.8#124
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.2#56
Freethrows+0.6#133
Improvement+1.1#127
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.3% 0.5% 0.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.9 15.9 16.0
.500 or above 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 59.9% 85.7% 42.7%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.3% 0.4% 0.2%
First Round0.2% 0.2% 0.1%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Lamar (Home) - 40.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 30 - 3
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 4
Quad 20 - 10 - 5
Quad 32 - 62 - 11
Quad 49 - 811 - 19


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 08, 2024 36   @ Texas L 59-90 3%     0 - 1 -15.7 -4.5 -12.5
  Nov 13, 2024 31   @ Creighton L 43-78 2%     0 - 2 -18.0 -19.4 +0.1
  Nov 22, 2024 178   Rice L 58-61 35%     0 - 3 -6.5 -10.3 +3.4
  Nov 25, 2024 291   Eastern Michigan L 73-74 59%     0 - 4 -10.6 -1.7 -9.0
  Nov 27, 2024 264   Northern Arizona L 71-74 52%     0 - 5 -11.0 -0.1 -11.2
  Nov 30, 2024 208   @ Texas San Antonio L 71-78 24%     0 - 6 -7.0 +1.8 -9.2
  Dec 05, 2024 339   Texas A&M - Commerce W 83-79 74%     1 - 6 1 - 0 -10.0 +5.5 -15.5
  Dec 07, 2024 272   Northwestern St. L 57-64 55%     1 - 7 1 - 1 -15.8 -9.9 -7.0
  Dec 17, 2024 336   @ Louisiana Monroe W 74-68 56%     2 - 7 -2.9 -1.9 -1.1
  Dec 20, 2024 20   @ Texas A&M L 45-77 2%     2 - 8 -13.5 -10.3 -7.5
  Dec 22, 2024 71   @ North Texas L 46-62 6%     2 - 9 -5.5 -7.4 -2.2
  Jan 04, 2025 194   @ Lamar L 61-63 22%     2 - 10 1 - 2 -1.3 -6.4 +4.9
  Jan 06, 2025 249   @ Stephen F. Austin W 83-73 31%     3 - 10 2 - 2 +7.7 +11.1 -3.7
  Jan 11, 2025 281   Incarnate Word W 81-76 57%     4 - 10 3 - 2 -4.2 +12.5 -16.0
  Jan 13, 2025 86   McNeese St. L 59-75 14%     4 - 11 3 - 3 -11.9 -11.5 -0.6
  Jan 18, 2025 262   UT Rio Grande Valley W 66-57 52%     5 - 11 4 - 3 +1.0 -11.4 +12.3
  Jan 20, 2025 199   TX A&M Corpus Christi W 76-72 39%     6 - 11 5 - 3 -0.7 -0.6 -0.2
  Jan 25, 2025 353   @ New Orleans W 86-76 62%     7 - 11 6 - 3 -0.6 +7.5 -8.1
  Jan 27, 2025 213   @ SE Louisiana W 70-62 24%     8 - 11 7 - 3 +7.9 +5.9 +3.0
  Feb 01, 2025 281   @ Incarnate Word L 64-74 37%     8 - 12 7 - 4 -14.1 -2.6 -13.1
  Feb 03, 2025 192   @ Nicholls St. L 67-75 22%     8 - 13 7 - 5 -7.3 +3.3 -11.7
  Feb 08, 2025 353   New Orleans W 81-68 79%     9 - 13 8 - 5 -2.7 +10.7 -11.7
  Feb 10, 2025 213   SE Louisiana L 60-69 41%     9 - 14 8 - 6 -14.2 -6.0 -9.5
  Feb 15, 2025 262   @ UT Rio Grande Valley L 52-76 33%     9 - 15 8 - 7 -26.9 -18.6 -9.9
  Feb 17, 2025 199   @ TX A&M Corpus Christi L 62-68 23%     9 - 16 8 - 8 -5.6 -3.4 -2.7
  Feb 22, 2025 194   Lamar L 65-68 40%    
  Feb 24, 2025 249   Stephen F. Austin L 65-66 51%    
  Mar 01, 2025 272   @ Northwestern St. L 64-68 35%    
  Mar 03, 2025 339   @ Texas A&M - Commerce W 69-67 53%    
Projected Record 11 - 18 10 - 10




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southland Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 2nd
3rd 0.3 0.3 3rd
4th 0.5 2.2 2.7 4th
5th 1.3 8.9 2.0 12.2 5th
6th 4.5 23.4 10.6 0.1 38.6 6th
7th 0.8 19.1 10.3 0.3 30.5 7th
8th 5.9 6.4 0.0 12.4 8th
9th 2.9 0.1 3.0 9th
10th 0.3 0.3 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
Total 10.0 30.1 35.1 20.3 4.6 Total



Southland Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8 4.6% 1.3% 1.3% 15.7 0.0 0.0 4.6
11-9 20.3% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.1 20.2
10-10 35.1% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.1 35.0
9-11 30.1% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.1 30.0
8-12 10.0% 10.0
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% 15.9 0.0 0.3 99.7 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 1.2%
Lose Out 8.0%