Morehead St.
Ohio Valley
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-5.5#256
Expected Predictive Rating-1.7#203
Pace63.1#317
Improvement+4.1#30

Offense
Total Offense-4.8#303
First Shot-4.2#293
After Offensive Rebound-0.6#227
Layup/Dunks-1.9#255
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.0#117
3 Pt Jumpshots-4.8#324
Freethrows+1.5#88
Improvement-1.2#259

Defense
Total Defense-0.7#200
First Shot-0.2#188
After Offensive Rebounds-0.5#228
Layups/Dunks+1.0#134
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.9#345
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.6#75
Freethrows-0.9#254
Improvement+5.3#6
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 23.8% 26.2% 19.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.8 15.8 15.9
.500 or above 89.7% 94.8% 81.2%
.500 or above in Conference 99.5% 99.9% 98.8%
Conference Champion 55.5% 64.3% 41.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four13.5% 13.6% 13.4%
First Round16.9% 19.4% 12.7%
Second Round0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Eastern Illinois (Away) - 62.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 2
Quad 20 - 10 - 3
Quad 32 - 32 - 6
Quad 415 - 717 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 27   @ Louisville L 45-93 3%     0 - 1 -31.5 -23.4 -5.2
  Nov 08, 2024 39   @ Cincinnati L 56-83 4%     0 - 2 -12.4 +1.4 -17.1
  Nov 14, 2024 157   @ Chattanooga L 62-76 21%     0 - 3 -10.8 -14.0 +3.3
  Nov 20, 2024 300   Austin Peay W 63-58 68%     1 - 3 -5.4 -4.1 -0.7
  Nov 27, 2024 355   NJIT L 69-78 78%     1 - 4 -22.5 +2.0 -25.7
  Nov 29, 2024 171   @ Cleveland St. W 71-69 23%     2 - 4 +4.3 +1.4 +2.9
  Dec 04, 2024 178   @ Marshall L 77-80 24%     2 - 5 -1.1 +6.4 -7.6
  Dec 07, 2024 146   @ Ohio L 76-88 19%     2 - 6 -8.1 +0.9 -8.6
  Dec 19, 2024 290   Tennessee Martin W 70-69 OT 67%     3 - 6 1 - 0 -9.0 -9.4 +0.4
  Dec 21, 2024 301   Tennessee St. W 74-68 69%     4 - 6 2 - 0 -4.6 +2.1 -6.2
  Dec 31, 2024 324   @ Southern Indiana W 70-68 56%     5 - 6 3 - 0 -5.1 -1.2 -3.8
  Jan 04, 2025 317   @ Tennessee Tech L 55-74 53%     5 - 7 3 - 1 -25.2 -19.9 -5.6
  Jan 09, 2025 238   @ Arkansas Little Rock W 59-53 35%     6 - 7 4 - 1 +4.4 -7.2 +12.0
  Jan 11, 2025 271   @ Southeast Missouri St. W 67-56 42%     7 - 7 5 - 1 +7.6 +1.4 +7.3
  Jan 16, 2025 336   Western Illinois W 51-47 79%     8 - 7 6 - 1 -10.2 -19.6 +10.2
  Jan 18, 2025 342   Lindenwood W 82-65 80%     9 - 7 7 - 1 +2.7 +10.8 -6.6
  Jan 23, 2025 343   @ Eastern Illinois W 66-62 62%    
  Jan 25, 2025 263   @ SIU Edwardsville L 63-65 40%    
  Jan 28, 2025 324   Southern Indiana W 71-64 75%    
  Jan 30, 2025 317   Tennessee Tech W 70-64 72%    
  Feb 06, 2025 271   Southeast Missouri St. W 69-66 63%    
  Feb 08, 2025 238   Arkansas Little Rock W 66-64 58%    
  Feb 13, 2025 342   @ Lindenwood W 68-65 61%    
  Feb 15, 2025 336   Western Illinois W 68-59 80%    
  Feb 20, 2025 263   SIU Edwardsville W 65-62 61%    
  Feb 22, 2025 343   Eastern Illinois W 69-60 80%    
  Feb 27, 2025 301   @ Tennessee St. L 69-70 47%    
  Mar 01, 2025 290   @ Tennessee Martin L 67-68 45%    
Projected Record 16 - 12 14 - 6




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Ohio Valley Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.1 2.2 8.4 15.0 15.6 9.7 3.8 0.8 55.5 1st
2nd 0.1 1.5 6.4 8.5 5.1 1.1 0.1 22.7 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.6 3.8 5.2 1.7 0.2 11.6 3rd
4th 0.2 1.9 2.6 1.0 0.1 5.7 4th
5th 0.0 0.9 1.5 0.6 0.0 3.0 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.2 0.0 1.0 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.4 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.1 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.8 4.3 8.6 14.8 18.6 20.3 16.7 9.8 3.8 0.8 Total



Ohio Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1 100.0% 0.8    0.8
18-2 100.0% 3.8    3.8 0.0
17-3 99.1% 9.7    9.3 0.4
16-4 93.6% 15.6    13.2 2.4 0.1
15-5 73.8% 15.0    9.3 5.0 0.7 0.0
14-6 45.0% 8.4    2.9 3.7 1.6 0.2
13-7 14.6% 2.2    0.3 0.9 0.7 0.2 0.1
12-8 1.6% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 55.5% 55.5 39.6 12.3 3.1 0.5 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1 0.8% 52.6% 52.6% 14.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.4
18-2 3.8% 40.3% 40.3% 15.2 0.1 1.0 0.5 2.3
17-3 9.8% 36.4% 36.4% 15.7 0.0 1.0 2.5 6.2
16-4 16.7% 31.1% 31.1% 15.9 0.0 0.6 4.5 11.5
15-5 20.3% 27.7% 27.7% 16.0 0.2 5.4 14.7
14-6 18.6% 23.3% 23.3% 16.0 0.1 4.3 14.3
13-7 14.8% 15.2% 15.2% 16.0 2.3 12.6
12-8 8.6% 8.0% 8.0% 16.0 0.7 8.0
11-9 4.3% 3.7% 3.7% 16.0 0.2 4.1
10-10 1.8% 3.3% 3.3% 16.0 0.1 1.8
9-11 0.4% 2.3% 2.3% 16.0 0.0 0.4
8-12 0.1% 0.1
7-13 0.0% 0.0
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 23.8% 23.8% 0.0% 15.8 0.1 0.4 3.0 20.4 76.2 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.4% 100.0% 14.1 17.1 56.1 24.4 2.4
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.2%