Morehead St.
Ohio Valley
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-5.5#265
Expected Predictive Rating-2.8#215
Pace63.1#331
Improvement+2.9#9

Offense
Total Offense-5.1#314
First Shot-3.1#265
After Offensive Rebound-2.1#287
Layup/Dunks+3.6#62
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.6#267
3 Pt Jumpshots-9.5#360
Freethrows+4.4#16
Improvement+1.2#55

Defense
Total Defense-0.4#178
First Shot+1.2#131
After Offensive Rebounds-1.6#289
Layups/Dunks-4.0#307
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.3#107
3 Pt Jumpshots+4.4#45
Freethrows-0.5#218
Improvement+1.7#25
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 14.5% 15.7% 9.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.5 15.5 15.7
.500 or above 58.5% 63.3% 37.6%
.500 or above in Conference 77.5% 79.7% 68.2%
Conference Champion 18.9% 20.4% 12.5%
Last Place in Conference 2.7% 2.3% 4.5%
First Four6.0% 6.2% 5.1%
First Round11.6% 12.7% 6.7%
Second Round0.2% 0.3% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: NJIT (Neutral) - 81.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 10 - 3
Quad 31 - 41 - 7
Quad 414 - 815 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 46   @ Louisville L 45-93 5%     0 - 1 -34.8 -23.7 -8.1
  Nov 08, 2024 18   @ Cincinnati L 56-83 3%     0 - 2 -9.8 -1.8 -11.3
  Nov 14, 2024 169   @ Chattanooga L 62-76 22%     0 - 3 -11.4 -11.3 +0.0
  Nov 20, 2024 233   Austin Peay W 63-58 54%     1 - 3 -1.6 -5.0 +4.0
  Nov 27, 2024 360   NJIT W 68-59 81%    
  Nov 29, 2024 218   @ Cleveland St. L 62-68 29%    
  Dec 04, 2024 193   @ Marshall L 65-72 26%    
  Dec 07, 2024 151   @ Ohio L 66-75 20%    
  Dec 19, 2024 309   Tennessee Martin W 72-66 71%    
  Dec 21, 2024 298   Tennessee St. W 70-65 67%    
  Dec 31, 2024 307   @ Southern Indiana L 66-67 48%    
  Jan 04, 2025 334   @ Tennessee Tech W 65-63 57%    
  Jan 09, 2025 199   @ Arkansas Little Rock L 63-70 28%    
  Jan 11, 2025 312   @ Southeast Missouri St. L 66-67 49%    
  Jan 16, 2025 329   Western Illinois W 66-59 73%    
  Jan 18, 2025 354   Lindenwood W 71-60 84%    
  Jan 23, 2025 317   @ Eastern Illinois L 64-65 50%    
  Jan 25, 2025 272   @ SIU Edwardsville L 63-66 40%    
  Jan 28, 2025 307   Southern Indiana W 70-64 69%    
  Jan 30, 2025 334   Tennessee Tech W 68-60 76%    
  Feb 06, 2025 312   Southeast Missouri St. W 69-63 69%    
  Feb 08, 2025 199   Arkansas Little Rock L 66-67 48%    
  Feb 13, 2025 354   @ Lindenwood W 68-63 67%    
  Feb 15, 2025 329   Western Illinois W 66-59 73%    
  Feb 20, 2025 272   SIU Edwardsville W 66-63 61%    
  Feb 22, 2025 317   Eastern Illinois W 68-62 70%    
  Feb 27, 2025 298   @ Tennessee St. L 67-68 46%    
  Mar 01, 2025 309   @ Tennessee Martin L 68-69 50%    
Projected Record 15 - 13 12 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Ohio Valley Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.7 2.4 4.4 4.6 3.6 2.1 0.9 0.2 18.9 1st
2nd 0.1 1.4 4.2 5.5 4.0 1.8 0.4 0.1 17.5 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.4 4.7 5.2 2.4 0.5 0.1 14.4 3rd
4th 0.1 1.2 4.5 4.6 1.5 0.2 0.0 12.1 4th
5th 0.0 0.7 3.7 4.1 1.2 0.1 9.8 5th
6th 0.0 0.5 2.8 3.4 1.0 0.1 7.8 6th
7th 0.3 1.9 3.1 1.1 0.1 0.0 6.5 7th
8th 0.0 0.3 1.5 2.3 1.0 0.1 5.2 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 0.9 1.6 0.7 0.1 3.7 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.0 0.6 0.1 2.8 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.0 1.4 11th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.4 2.4 4.0 5.6 7.8 9.5 11.2 12.0 11.7 10.5 8.9 6.5 4.0 2.2 0.9 0.2 Total



Ohio Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.2    0.2
19-1 100.0% 0.9    0.9 0.0
18-2 97.1% 2.1    2.0 0.1
17-3 89.4% 3.6    3.1 0.5 0.0
16-4 71.1% 4.6    3.3 1.2 0.1 0.0
15-5 49.2% 4.4    2.3 1.7 0.4 0.0
14-6 22.5% 2.4    0.8 1.1 0.5 0.1
13-7 6.0% 0.7    0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0
12-8 0.5% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0% 0.0    0.0
10-10 0.0%
Total 18.9% 18.9 12.6 4.9 1.2 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.2% 76.8% 76.8% 13.5 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
19-1 0.9% 50.8% 50.8% 13.9 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.4
18-2 2.2% 50.1% 50.1% 14.5 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.1 1.1
17-3 4.0% 38.8% 38.8% 15.0 0.0 0.3 0.8 0.4 2.5
16-4 6.5% 36.3% 36.3% 15.4 0.0 0.2 1.0 1.2 4.1
15-5 8.9% 29.1% 29.1% 15.7 0.0 0.0 0.6 1.9 6.3
14-6 10.5% 22.0% 22.0% 15.9 0.3 2.0 8.2
13-7 11.7% 14.5% 14.5% 15.9 0.1 1.6 10.0
12-8 12.0% 9.2% 9.2% 16.0 0.0 1.1 10.9
11-9 11.2% 5.4% 5.4% 16.0 0.0 0.6 10.6
10-10 9.5% 3.7% 3.7% 16.0 0.4 9.1
9-11 7.8% 2.3% 2.3% 16.0 0.2 7.6
8-12 5.6% 1.0% 1.0% 16.0 0.1 5.5
7-13 4.0% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 4.0
6-14 2.4% 2.4
5-15 1.4% 1.4
4-16 0.8% 0.8
3-17 0.3% 0.3
2-18 0.1% 0.1
1-19 0.0% 0.0
0-20 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 14.5% 14.5% 0.0% 15.5 0.1 0.3 1.1 3.5 9.5 85.5 0.0%