North Dakota St.
Summit League
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+3.1#112
Expected Predictive Rating+2.3#129
Pace64.7#277
Improvement+4.1#31

Offense
Total Offense+6.4#40
First Shot+6.8#32
After Offensive Rebound-0.4#214
Layup/Dunks-3.9#312
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.2#250
3 Pt Jumpshots+12.9#1
Freethrows-1.0#249
Improvement+2.5#59

Defense
Total Defense-3.3#272
First Shot-4.4#315
After Offensive Rebounds+1.1#96
Layups/Dunks-3.0#296
2 Pt Jumpshots-4.9#357
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.4#125
Freethrows+2.1#54
Improvement+1.6#97
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 29.8% 30.5% 24.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 12.8 12.7 13.2
.500 or above 99.9% 100.0% 99.7%
.500 or above in Conference 99.1% 99.5% 96.4%
Conference Champion 20.3% 21.9% 8.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round29.8% 30.5% 24.6%
Second Round3.0% 3.2% 1.7%
Sweet Sixteen0.6% 0.6% 0.3%
Elite Eight0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: North Dakota (Home) - 88.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 14 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b1 - 01 - 0
Quad 22 - 23 - 2
Quad 34 - 57 - 7
Quad 414 - 221 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2024 144   Illinois St. L 68-77 67%     0 - 1 -10.4 -3.4 -7.8
  Nov 11, 2024 233   @ Cal St. Bakersfield L 81-86 67%     0 - 2 -6.4 +14.6 -21.5
  Nov 13, 2024 66   @ Santa Clara W 88-80 OT 22%     1 - 2 +19.1 +11.9 +6.5
  Nov 18, 2024 190   @ Southern Illinois L 44-69 56%     1 - 3 -23.6 -23.8 -1.6
  Nov 26, 2024 115   @ Samford L 98-103 OT 40%     1 - 4 +0.6 +19.1 -18.2
  Nov 27, 2024 349   West Georgia W 73-61 92%     2 - 4 -0.5 -1.6 +1.8
  Nov 28, 2024 140   Utah Valley W 83-63 56%     3 - 4 +21.5 +28.0 -3.0
  Dec 04, 2024 237   @ Weber St. W 77-73 67%     4 - 4 +2.5 +12.0 -9.0
  Dec 07, 2024 166   Northern Colorado W 82-70 72%     5 - 4 +9.1 -2.9 +10.8
  Dec 10, 2024 83   @ Butler W 71-68 27%     6 - 4 +12.5 +12.6 +0.3
  Dec 15, 2024 304   Western Michigan W 98-62 90%     7 - 4 +25.3 +22.9 +3.9
  Dec 23, 2024 233   Cal St. Bakersfield W 94-60 83%     8 - 4 +27.2 +19.3 +8.7
  Jan 02, 2025 124   St. Thomas L 85-89 63%     8 - 5 0 - 1 -4.3 +14.6 -19.2
  Jan 04, 2025 221   Nebraska Omaha L 80-85 81%     8 - 6 0 - 2 -11.1 +3.2 -14.3
  Jan 09, 2025 312   @ Oral Roberts W 110-96 80%     9 - 6 1 - 2 +8.1 +33.2 -24.8
  Jan 11, 2025 340   @ Denver W 69-50 87%     10 - 6 2 - 2 +10.2 +0.0 +12.7
  Jan 16, 2025 223   UMKC W 71-64 81%     11 - 6 3 - 2 +0.7 -0.8 +1.8
  Jan 18, 2025 269   @ South Dakota W 103-77 73%     12 - 6 4 - 2 +22.7 +19.6 +2.2
  Jan 25, 2025 278   North Dakota W 86-74 88%    
  Jan 30, 2025 114   South Dakota St. W 79-76 62%    
  Feb 01, 2025 124   @ St. Thomas L 78-80 42%    
  Feb 06, 2025 223   @ UMKC W 73-69 63%    
  Feb 08, 2025 221   @ Nebraska Omaha W 78-74 63%    
  Feb 13, 2025 312   Oral Roberts W 86-72 92%    
  Feb 15, 2025 340   Denver W 84-67 95%    
  Feb 19, 2025 114   @ South Dakota St. L 76-79 40%    
  Feb 22, 2025 278   @ North Dakota W 83-76 73%    
  Feb 26, 2025 269   South Dakota W 91-79 87%    
Projected Record 19 - 9 11 - 5




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Summit League Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.0 1.0 7.1 9.1 3.1 20.3 1st
2nd 0.1 2.2 11.4 14.4 4.1 0.2 32.3 2nd
3rd 0.1 2.4 9.5 11.6 2.2 0.1 25.9 3rd
4th 0.1 1.7 6.3 7.6 1.9 0.0 17.5 4th
5th 0.4 1.7 1.2 0.1 3.4 5th
6th 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.5 6th
7th 0.1 0.1 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
Total 0.1 0.7 3.7 9.9 19.5 25.9 23.7 13.2 3.3 Total



Summit League Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0
15-1
14-2 93.9% 3.1    2.6 0.5
13-3 68.8% 9.1    4.8 3.8 0.5
12-4 29.8% 7.1    1.6 3.5 1.7 0.2
11-5 4.0% 1.0    0.1 0.3 0.5 0.2
10-6 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
9-7 0.0%
8-8 0.0%
Total 20.3% 20.3 9.1 8.1 2.7 0.4 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0
15-1
14-2 3.3% 47.3% 47.3% 11.5 0.0 0.0 0.6 0.9 0.0 1.7
13-3 13.2% 39.6% 39.6% 12.3 0.2 3.5 1.4 0.1 8.0
12-4 23.7% 36.6% 36.6% 12.6 0.1 3.6 4.4 0.6 0.0 15.1
11-5 25.9% 27.5% 27.5% 12.9 1.6 4.3 1.2 0.0 18.8
10-6 19.5% 23.4% 23.4% 13.3 0.4 2.5 1.5 0.1 14.9
9-7 9.9% 18.3% 18.3% 13.5 0.1 0.9 0.8 0.1 8.1
8-8 3.7% 21.0% 21.0% 13.7 0.0 0.3 0.4 0.1 2.9
7-9 0.7% 13.9% 13.9% 14.6 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.6
6-10 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.1
5-11
4-12
3-13
2-14
1-15
0-16
Total 100% 29.8% 29.8% 0.0% 12.8 0.0 0.0 0.8 10.1 13.8 4.6 0.4 0.0 70.2 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 1.6% 100.0% 11.5 1.9 1.9 37.4 56.8 1.9
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.7%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.7%