North Dakota St.
Summit League
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+1.8#131
Expected Predictive Rating+3.9#110
Pace63.6#317
Improvement+7.0#2

Offense
Total Offense+4.9#54
First Shot+5.2#49
After Offensive Rebound-0.3#201
Layup/Dunks-5.4#337
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.4#189
3 Pt Jumpshots+13.7#1
Freethrows-2.6#320
Improvement+3.3#10

Defense
Total Defense-3.1#274
First Shot-4.7#322
After Offensive Rebounds+1.5#68
Layups/Dunks-3.7#314
2 Pt Jumpshots-5.3#360
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.1#100
Freethrows+2.2#50
Improvement+3.7#4
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 27.6% 28.7% 22.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.2 13.1 13.6
.500 or above 98.0% 98.8% 94.6%
.500 or above in Conference 94.8% 95.4% 92.4%
Conference Champion 37.2% 38.9% 29.7%
Last Place in Conference 0.4% 0.4% 0.7%
First Four0.1% 0.0% 0.2%
First Round27.6% 28.7% 22.8%
Second Round2.7% 2.9% 1.7%
Sweet Sixteen0.5% 0.6% 0.2%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Cal St. Bakersfield (Home) - 81.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b1 - 01 - 0
Quad 21 - 22 - 2
Quad 34 - 46 - 6
Quad 414 - 421 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2024 160   Illinois St. L 68-77 68%     0 - 1 -12.1 -2.7 -10.1
  Nov 11, 2024 245   @ Cal St. Bakersfield L 81-86 63%     0 - 2 -6.7 +15.7 -22.9
  Nov 13, 2024 78   @ Santa Clara W 88-80 OT 21%     1 - 2 +18.1 +12.0 +5.4
  Nov 18, 2024 169   @ Southern Illinois L 44-69 47%     1 - 3 -22.6 -22.6 -1.8
  Nov 26, 2024 109   @ Samford L 98-103 OT 31%     1 - 4 +2.0 +18.8 -16.4
  Nov 27, 2024 348   West Georgia W 73-61 90%     2 - 4 -0.1 -1.0 +1.6
  Nov 28, 2024 165   Utah Valley W 83-63 59%     3 - 4 +19.5 +26.3 -3.3
  Dec 04, 2024 208   @ Weber St. W 77-73 54%     4 - 4 +4.6 +13.5 -8.3
  Dec 07, 2024 192   Northern Colorado W 82-70 73%     5 - 4 +7.5 -2.3 +8.6
  Dec 10, 2024 74   @ Butler W 71-68 21%     6 - 4 +13.4 +13.5 +0.4
  Dec 15, 2024 295   Western Michigan W 98-62 86%     7 - 4 +26.0 +23.3 +4.2
  Dec 23, 2024 245   Cal St. Bakersfield W 74-65 81%    
  Jan 02, 2025 143   St. Thomas W 77-73 65%    
  Jan 04, 2025 294   Nebraska Omaha W 79-67 86%    
  Jan 09, 2025 293   @ Oral Roberts W 78-72 70%    
  Jan 11, 2025 325   @ Denver W 78-70 77%    
  Jan 16, 2025 271   UMKC W 77-66 84%    
  Jan 18, 2025 228   @ South Dakota W 83-81 59%    
  Jan 25, 2025 302   North Dakota W 81-69 87%    
  Jan 30, 2025 123   South Dakota St. W 75-73 59%    
  Feb 01, 2025 143   @ St. Thomas L 74-76 43%    
  Feb 06, 2025 271   @ UMKC W 74-69 66%    
  Feb 08, 2025 294   @ Nebraska Omaha W 76-70 70%    
  Feb 13, 2025 293   Oral Roberts W 81-69 85%    
  Feb 15, 2025 325   Denver W 81-67 90%    
  Feb 19, 2025 123   @ South Dakota St. L 72-76 37%    
  Feb 22, 2025 302   @ North Dakota W 78-72 72%    
  Feb 26, 2025 228   South Dakota W 86-78 77%    
Projected Record 19 - 9 11 - 5




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Summit League Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 2.6 7.8 11.3 9.5 4.6 1.1 37.2 1st
2nd 0.0 0.6 4.2 9.6 8.6 3.6 0.6 27.2 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.6 4.1 7.4 4.9 1.1 0.0 18.1 3rd
4th 0.0 0.4 2.5 4.2 1.8 0.2 0.0 9.2 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 1.4 2.2 0.8 0.0 4.6 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.1 0.4 0.0 2.1 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.9 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.5 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 9th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.3 3.0 5.8 9.8 13.7 17.4 17.4 14.9 10.1 4.6 1.1 Total



Summit League Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0 100.0% 1.1    1.1
15-1 100.0% 4.6    4.6 0.1
14-2 94.4% 9.5    8.1 1.4 0.0
13-3 75.8% 11.3    7.3 3.7 0.3
12-4 44.6% 7.8    3.2 3.6 0.9 0.0
11-5 14.9% 2.6    0.5 1.2 0.7 0.1 0.0
10-6 2.1% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
9-7 0.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
8-8 0.0%
Total 37.2% 37.2 24.9 10.1 2.0 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0 1.1% 59.0% 58.8% 0.2% 11.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.5 0.4%
15-1 4.6% 48.9% 48.9% 12.2 0.2 1.5 0.5 0.0 2.4
14-2 10.1% 42.6% 42.6% 12.6 0.1 1.9 2.0 0.3 0.0 5.8
13-3 14.9% 37.0% 37.0% 13.0 0.0 1.3 3.1 1.0 0.0 9.4
12-4 17.4% 30.7% 30.7% 13.3 0.0 0.6 2.7 1.8 0.2 12.1
11-5 17.4% 24.5% 24.5% 13.7 0.2 1.6 2.0 0.5 0.0 13.1
10-6 13.7% 19.5% 19.5% 14.0 0.0 0.6 1.4 0.6 0.0 11.1
9-7 9.8% 15.1% 15.1% 14.3 0.0 0.2 0.7 0.5 0.1 8.4
8-8 5.8% 12.4% 12.4% 14.6 0.0 0.3 0.4 0.0 5.0
7-9 3.0% 9.1% 9.1% 15.2 0.0 0.2 0.1 2.7
6-10 1.3% 7.4% 7.4% 15.6 0.0 0.1 1.2
5-11 0.5% 4.9% 4.9% 15.8 0.0 0.0 0.5
4-12 0.2% 5.5% 5.5% 16.0 0.0 0.2
3-13 0.1% 0.1
2-14 0.0% 0.0
1-15 0.0% 0.0
0-16
Total 100% 27.6% 27.6% 0.0% 13.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.6 5.8 10.8 7.7 2.3 0.3 72.4 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.6% 100.0% 11.1 0.3 1.0 5.2 10.0 50.5 32.3 0.7
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.2% 1.2% 11.0 1.2
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.2%