North Florida
Atlantic Sun
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-0.8#177
Expected Predictive Rating+7.4#80
Pace70.7#135
Improvement-4.5#364

Offense
Total Offense+3.4#88
First Shot+2.2#108
After Offensive Rebound+1.2#107
Layup/Dunks-0.4#187
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.3#238
3 Pt Jumpshots+9.2#8
Freethrows-5.4#353
Improvement-1.0#314

Defense
Total Defense-4.3#313
First Shot-6.4#346
After Offensive Rebounds+2.1#56
Layups/Dunks-10.8#363
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.3#106
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.2#107
Freethrows+0.8#136
Improvement-3.5#363
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 15.5% 17.8% 12.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.8 13.6 14.1
.500 or above 78.3% 86.4% 67.7%
.500 or above in Conference 87.2% 90.3% 83.2%
Conference Champion 21.4% 24.9% 16.8%
Last Place in Conference 0.5% 0.3% 0.7%
First Four0.3% 0.2% 0.4%
First Round15.4% 17.7% 12.3%
Second Round1.1% 1.4% 0.7%
Sweet Sixteen0.2% 0.3% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: SIU Edwardsville (Away) - 56.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b1 - 11 - 2
Quad 21 - 12 - 3
Quad 33 - 55 - 8
Quad 413 - 518 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 72   @ South Carolina W 74-71 14%     1 - 0 +13.8 +8.0 +5.9
  Nov 07, 2024 310   Charleston Southern W 90-66 84%     2 - 0 +12.6 +5.2 +5.6
  Nov 10, 2024 105   @ Georgia Tech W 105-93 22%     3 - 0 +19.3 +20.6 -3.0
  Nov 12, 2024 54   @ Georgia L 77-90 11%     3 - 1 -0.7 +11.7 -12.8
  Nov 18, 2024 176   UNC Asheville L 75-89 61%     3 - 2 -17.8 +1.5 -19.8
  Nov 29, 2024 272   @ SIU Edwardsville W 75-73 57%    
  Dec 01, 2024 65   @ Nebraska L 71-83 13%    
  Dec 07, 2024 220   @ Georgia Southern L 85-86 46%    
  Dec 14, 2024 171   UNC Greensboro W 75-72 60%    
  Dec 17, 2024 176   @ UNC Asheville L 77-80 39%    
  Dec 21, 2024 19   @ Florida L 75-93 5%    
  Jan 02, 2025 238   Austin Peay W 76-70 71%    
  Jan 04, 2025 152   Lipscomb W 80-78 56%    
  Jan 09, 2025 199   @ Eastern Kentucky L 79-81 43%    
  Jan 11, 2025 336   @ Bellarmine W 78-71 73%    
  Jan 16, 2025 340   Central Arkansas W 85-71 89%    
  Jan 18, 2025 186   North Alabama W 80-77 62%    
  Jan 23, 2025 297   @ Queens W 82-79 62%    
  Jan 25, 2025 353   @ West Georgia W 81-72 80%    
  Jan 29, 2025 327   Stetson W 82-71 84%    
  Feb 01, 2025 187   @ Jacksonville L 71-74 41%    
  Feb 06, 2025 336   Bellarmine W 81-68 87%    
  Feb 08, 2025 218   Florida Gulf Coast W 74-69 67%    
  Feb 13, 2025 186   @ North Alabama L 77-80 41%    
  Feb 15, 2025 340   @ Central Arkansas W 82-74 75%    
  Feb 18, 2025 327   @ Stetson W 79-74 68%    
  Feb 20, 2025 187   Jacksonville W 74-71 62%    
  Feb 24, 2025 218   @ Florida Gulf Coast L 71-72 46%    
  Feb 26, 2025 199   Eastern Kentucky W 82-78 64%    
Projected Record 17 - 12 12 - 6




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Sun Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.4 2.1 5.2 6.4 4.6 2.1 0.5 21.4 1st
2nd 0.0 0.4 3.0 6.5 5.4 1.9 0.2 0.0 17.4 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.3 2.6 6.2 4.2 1.0 0.1 14.5 3rd
4th 0.2 2.1 5.5 3.9 0.7 0.0 12.4 4th
5th 0.0 0.1 1.6 4.5 3.6 0.7 0.0 10.6 5th
6th 0.1 1.0 3.6 3.3 0.6 0.0 8.6 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 0.7 2.5 2.4 0.6 0.0 6.3 7th
8th 0.0 0.5 1.6 1.6 0.5 0.0 4.2 8th
9th 0.0 0.3 0.8 1.1 0.3 0.0 2.5 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.5 0.1 0.0 1.3 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.6 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.2 12th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.5 1.0 1.9 3.6 5.5 8.3 10.8 12.8 14.2 13.6 11.6 8.3 4.9 2.1 0.5 Total



Atlantic Sun Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.5    0.5
17-1 99.5% 2.1    2.1 0.0
16-2 95.4% 4.6    4.0 0.6 0.0
15-3 76.7% 6.4    4.2 2.0 0.2 0.0
14-4 45.0% 5.2    2.1 2.3 0.8 0.1
13-5 15.5% 2.1    0.4 0.9 0.6 0.2 0.0
12-6 2.7% 0.4    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
11-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 21.4% 21.4 13.2 6.0 1.8 0.3 0.1



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.5% 54.2% 54.2% 11.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2
17-1 2.1% 46.0% 46.0% 12.4 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.3 0.1 1.2
16-2 4.9% 38.5% 38.5% 12.8 0.0 0.6 0.9 0.3 0.0 3.0
15-3 8.3% 31.5% 31.5% 13.3 0.0 0.4 1.2 0.8 0.2 0.0 5.7
14-4 11.6% 24.3% 24.3% 13.7 0.0 0.2 1.0 1.1 0.4 0.0 8.8
13-5 13.6% 18.0% 18.0% 14.0 0.1 0.6 1.0 0.7 0.1 11.1
12-6 14.2% 13.3% 13.3% 14.4 0.0 0.2 0.8 0.7 0.1 12.3
11-7 12.8% 10.4% 10.4% 14.8 0.1 0.3 0.8 0.2 11.5
10-8 10.8% 6.6% 6.6% 15.1 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.2 10.1
9-9 8.3% 4.6% 4.6% 15.4 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 7.9
8-10 5.5% 2.2% 2.2% 15.8 0.0 0.1 5.4
7-11 3.6% 1.7% 1.7% 15.8 0.0 0.1 3.5
6-12 1.9% 0.9% 0.9% 16.0 0.0 1.9
5-13 1.0% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.0 1.0
4-14 0.5% 0.5
3-15 0.1% 0.1
2-16 0.1% 0.1
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18
Total 100% 15.5% 15.5% 0.0% 13.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 2.0 4.4 4.6 3.5 0.9 84.5 0.0%