Northern Arizona
Big Sky
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-5.8#264
Expected Predictive Rating-5.7#259
Pace69.2#167
Improvement+1.3#122

Offense
Total Offense-2.2#229
First Shot-5.5#324
After Offensive Rebound+3.2#22
Layup/Dunks-3.1#294
2 Pt Jumpshots+3.5#25
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.5#224
Freethrows-4.3#359
Improvement-0.1#189

Defense
Total Defense-3.6#278
First Shot-4.9#325
After Offensive Rebounds+1.4#68
Layups/Dunks-0.9#208
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.1#286
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.3#280
Freethrows-0.7#234
Improvement+1.4#105
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 4.2% 5.2% 3.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.8 15.7 15.9
.500 or above 27.5% 42.0% 18.4%
.500 or above in Conference 24.1% 38.2% 15.2%
Conference Champion 0.4% 0.7% 0.2%
Last Place in Conference 12.9% 5.1% 17.8%
First Four2.2% 2.0% 2.3%
First Round3.1% 4.3% 2.4%
Second Round0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Eastern Washington (Away) - 38.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 0
Quad 20 - 10 - 2
Quad 32 - 62 - 8
Quad 411 - 813 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 12, 2024 88   @ Stanford L 64-90 9%     0 - 1 -16.8 +2.8 -23.4
  Nov 14, 2024 302   @ Pacific W 60-57 47%     1 - 1 -2.1 -13.0 +11.1
  Nov 22, 2024 309   Incarnate Word W 75-74 70%     2 - 1 -10.1 -1.0 -9.0
  Nov 26, 2024 314   Eastern Michigan L 68-72 61%     2 - 2 -12.7 -8.9 -3.8
  Nov 27, 2024 308   @ Houston Christian W 74-71 49%     3 - 2 -2.5 +5.1 -7.4
  Dec 04, 2024 312   @ Oral Roberts L 76-83 50%     3 - 3 -12.9 -1.5 -11.6
  Dec 07, 2024 269   South Dakota W 95-82 61%     4 - 3 +4.2 +5.2 -2.0
  Dec 14, 2024 204   @ Pepperdine L 76-86 27%     4 - 4 -9.4 +3.4 -12.7
  Dec 21, 2024 240   @ Southern Utah W 83-75 34%     5 - 4 +6.4 +7.9 -1.8
  Jan 02, 2025 215   Idaho St. L 67-72 50%     5 - 5 0 - 1 -10.7 -4.8 -6.2
  Jan 04, 2025 237   Weber St. W 80-77 55%     6 - 5 1 - 1 -4.0 +7.3 -11.1
  Jan 09, 2025 226   @ Montana L 76-81 32%     6 - 6 1 - 2 -6.0 -0.9 -4.9
  Jan 11, 2025 176   @ Montana St. L 53-58 23%     6 - 7 1 - 3 -3.0 -19.5 +16.6
  Jan 16, 2025 335   Sacramento St. W 77-53 79%     7 - 7 2 - 3 +9.9 +1.9 +8.3
  Jan 18, 2025 227   Portland St. L 69-80 53%     7 - 8 2 - 4 -17.5 -1.1 -17.0
  Jan 23, 2025 259   @ Eastern Washington L 74-77 39%    
  Jan 25, 2025 248   @ Idaho L 72-76 37%    
  Feb 01, 2025 166   @ Northern Colorado L 75-83 22%    
  Feb 03, 2025 237   @ Weber St. L 71-75 35%    
  Feb 06, 2025 176   Montana St. L 71-73 43%    
  Feb 08, 2025 226   Montana W 75-74 54%    
  Feb 13, 2025 227   @ Portland St. L 71-76 32%    
  Feb 15, 2025 335   @ Sacramento St. W 68-65 60%    
  Feb 20, 2025 248   Idaho W 75-73 58%    
  Feb 22, 2025 259   Eastern Washington W 77-75 61%    
  Mar 01, 2025 166   Northern Colorado L 77-80 41%    
  Mar 03, 2025 215   @ Idaho St. L 67-73 29%    
Projected Record 12 - 15 7 - 11




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Sky Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.4 1st
2nd 0.3 1.2 0.5 0.1 1.9 2nd
3rd 0.4 1.8 1.4 0.2 0.0 3.7 3rd
4th 0.1 2.9 3.5 0.5 0.0 6.9 4th
5th 0.1 2.4 5.9 1.3 0.0 9.7 5th
6th 0.1 2.0 7.2 3.3 0.1 12.7 6th
7th 0.1 1.8 7.6 6.2 0.6 16.4 7th
8th 0.1 2.0 8.4 8.3 1.2 0.0 20.0 8th
9th 0.1 0.7 3.7 8.1 7.4 1.7 21.6 9th
10th 0.4 1.6 2.5 1.7 0.5 0.0 6.7 10th
Total 0.5 2.2 6.4 11.9 18.1 19.7 17.2 13.1 6.9 3.2 0.8 0.2 0.0 Total



Big Sky Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 100.0% 0.0    0.0
13-5 60.0% 0.1    0.1 0.0
12-6 17.5% 0.1    0.0 0.1 0.0
11-7 4.1% 0.1    0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.4% 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 0.0% 0.0
13-5 0.2% 0.0 0.0 0.1
12-6 0.8% 15.0% 15.0% 15.3 0.1 0.0 0.7
11-7 3.2% 11.7% 11.7% 15.6 0.0 0.1 0.2 2.8
10-8 6.9% 10.2% 10.2% 15.6 0.0 0.3 0.4 6.2
9-9 13.1% 8.2% 8.2% 15.9 0.1 1.0 12.0
8-10 17.2% 4.7% 4.7% 15.9 0.1 0.8 16.4
7-11 19.7% 1.8% 1.8% 16.0 0.4 19.4
6-12 18.1% 2.1% 2.1% 16.0 0.4 17.7
5-13 11.9% 2.2% 2.2% 16.0 0.3 11.6
4-14 6.4% 1.1% 1.1% 16.0 0.1 6.3
3-15 2.2% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 2.2
2-16 0.5% 0.5
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 4.2% 4.2% 0.0% 15.8 0.0 0.7 3.5 95.8 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.2%