Northern Arizona
Big Sky
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-6.0#277
Expected Predictive Rating+3.4#131
Pace65.9#277
Improvement+0.1#163

Offense
Total Offense-2.6#249
First Shot-3.3#273
After Offensive Rebound+0.7#140
Layup/Dunks-2.9#276
2 Pt Jumpshots+4.1#21
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.4#166
Freethrows-5.0#346
Improvement-0.3#221

Defense
Total Defense-3.3#286
First Shot-2.6#270
After Offensive Rebounds-0.7#236
Layups/Dunks-1.0#205
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.0#128
3 Pt Jumpshots-5.8#334
Freethrows+3.2#42
Improvement+0.4#128
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 4.2% 5.0% 2.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.9 14.8 15.3
.500 or above 35.4% 42.4% 19.7%
.500 or above in Conference 36.2% 40.6% 26.3%
Conference Champion 4.4% 5.3% 2.2%
Last Place in Conference 20.7% 17.6% 27.6%
First Four0.9% 0.9% 0.8%
First Round3.8% 4.6% 2.0%
Second Round0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Incarnate Word (Home) - 69.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 1
Quad 20 - 10 - 2
Quad 32 - 62 - 8
Quad 410 - 813 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 12, 2024 76   @ Stanford L 64-90 7%     0 - 1 -15.3 +4.5 -23.6
  Nov 14, 2024 291   @ Pacific W 60-57 42%     1 - 1 -0.8 -10.4 +9.8
  Nov 22, 2024 308   Incarnate Word W 75-70 69%    
  Nov 26, 2024 300   Eastern Michigan W 68-66 56%    
  Nov 27, 2024 358   @ Houston Christian W 76-71 68%    
  Dec 04, 2024 249   @ Oral Roberts L 70-74 35%    
  Dec 07, 2024 239   South Dakota W 75-74 54%    
  Dec 14, 2024 248   @ Pepperdine L 69-74 34%    
  Dec 21, 2024 208   @ Southern Utah L 70-77 28%    
  Jan 02, 2025 232   Idaho St. W 66-65 52%    
  Jan 04, 2025 227   Weber St. W 69-68 51%    
  Jan 09, 2025 213   @ Montana L 67-73 29%    
  Jan 11, 2025 157   @ Montana St. L 68-77 21%    
  Jan 16, 2025 305   Sacramento St. W 67-62 67%    
  Jan 18, 2025 221   Portland St. L 77-78 50%    
  Jan 23, 2025 243   @ Eastern Washington L 73-78 33%    
  Jan 25, 2025 284   @ Idaho L 69-72 41%    
  Feb 01, 2025 148   @ Northern Colorado L 68-78 20%    
  Feb 03, 2025 227   @ Weber St. L 65-71 31%    
  Feb 06, 2025 157   Montana St. L 71-74 40%    
  Feb 08, 2025 213   Montana L 70-71 49%    
  Feb 13, 2025 221   @ Portland St. L 74-80 30%    
  Feb 15, 2025 305   @ Sacramento St. L 64-65 47%    
  Feb 20, 2025 284   Idaho W 72-69 61%    
  Feb 22, 2025 243   Eastern Washington W 76-75 54%    
  Mar 01, 2025 148   Northern Colorado L 71-75 37%    
  Mar 03, 2025 232   @ Idaho St. L 63-68 33%    
Projected Record 12 - 15 7 - 11




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Sky Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.3 1.1 0.8 0.4 0.1 0.0 4.4 1st
2nd 0.2 1.5 2.2 1.4 0.5 0.1 0.0 6.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.3 2.0 3.0 1.6 0.3 0.0 7.2 3rd
4th 0.0 0.2 2.4 4.0 1.7 0.2 8.5 4th
5th 0.3 2.4 4.8 2.1 0.2 0.0 9.8 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 2.4 5.2 2.6 0.3 10.7 6th
7th 0.0 0.4 2.6 5.7 3.2 0.3 0.0 12.3 7th
8th 0.0 0.8 3.1 5.5 3.3 0.5 0.0 13.2 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 1.5 3.8 5.1 2.9 0.5 0.0 14.0 9th
10th 0.4 1.3 2.8 4.1 3.3 1.6 0.3 0.0 13.8 10th
Total 0.4 1.3 3.0 5.6 7.9 10.2 11.6 12.2 11.5 10.5 8.5 6.5 4.7 3.0 1.6 0.9 0.4 0.1 0.0 Total



Big Sky Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
17-1 100.0% 0.1    0.1
16-2 98.0% 0.4    0.3 0.0
15-3 89.0% 0.8    0.6 0.1 0.0
14-4 67.4% 1.1    0.7 0.3 0.0
13-5 41.9% 1.3    0.5 0.6 0.2 0.0
12-6 13.6% 0.6    0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0
11-7 1.9% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0% 0.0    0.0
9-9 0.0%
Total 4.4% 4.4 2.5 1.3 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
17-1 0.1% 55.3% 55.3% 12.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
16-2 0.4% 35.3% 35.3% 13.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2
15-3 0.9% 28.2% 28.2% 13.7 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.6
14-4 1.6% 24.3% 24.3% 14.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 1.2
13-5 3.0% 17.1% 17.1% 14.4 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 2.5
12-6 4.7% 13.5% 13.5% 14.8 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.1 4.1
11-7 6.5% 9.9% 9.9% 15.1 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.2 5.8
10-8 8.5% 6.4% 6.4% 15.4 0.0 0.2 0.3 8.0
9-9 10.5% 4.5% 4.5% 15.7 0.0 0.1 0.3 10.0
8-10 11.5% 2.6% 2.6% 15.9 0.0 0.3 11.2
7-11 12.2% 1.2% 1.2% 16.0 0.0 0.1 12.0
6-12 11.6% 0.9% 0.9% 16.0 0.1 11.5
5-13 10.2% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 10.2
4-14 7.9% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 7.9
3-15 5.6% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 5.6
2-16 3.0% 3.0
1-17 1.3% 1.3
0-18 0.4% 0.4
Total 100% 4.2% 4.2% 0.0% 14.9 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.9 1.4 1.5 95.8 0.0%