Portland St.
Big Sky
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-6.1#276
Expected Predictive Rating-4.8#251
Pace72.2#88
Improvement-3.3#340

Offense
Total Offense-1.9#226
First Shot-5.3#323
After Offensive Rebound+3.4#23
Layup/Dunks+0.4#169
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.6#267
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.1#239
Freethrows-2.0#292
Improvement-2.5#337

Defense
Total Defense-4.2#304
First Shot-3.0#277
After Offensive Rebounds-1.2#283
Layups/Dunks-2.4#263
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.4#73
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.3#276
Freethrows+0.3#164
Improvement-0.7#249
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 4.5% 5.8% 3.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.5 15.4 15.6
.500 or above 22.3% 33.9% 15.4%
.500 or above in Conference 40.9% 48.0% 36.7%
Conference Champion 4.0% 5.6% 3.1%
Last Place in Conference 14.6% 10.9% 16.8%
First Four1.8% 1.8% 1.8%
First Round3.7% 5.0% 2.9%
Second Round0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Pacific (Away) - 37.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 20 - 10 - 2
Quad 32 - 72 - 10
Quad 410 - 812 - 17


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 68   @ Washington St. L 92-100 7%     0 - 1 +3.0 +13.4 -9.4
  Nov 12, 2024 315   @ San Diego W 85-76 49%     1 - 1 +3.2 -3.8 +5.3
  Nov 22, 2024 141   @ Wisconsin-Milwaukee L 74-91 17%     1 - 2 -12.9 +1.1 -13.8
  Nov 23, 2024 143   St. Thomas L 65-91 26%     1 - 3 -25.2 -10.7 -14.1
  Nov 24, 2024 163   Wofford W 79-74 29%     2 - 3 +4.6 +6.9 -2.1
  Nov 30, 2024 298   Utah Tech W 71-68 66%     3 - 3 -7.3 -4.2 -3.0
  Dec 04, 2024 140   @ Seattle L 74-91 17%     3 - 4 -12.9 +5.8 -19.2
  Dec 07, 2024 325   Denver L 67-68 72%     3 - 5 -13.2 -4.2 -9.1
  Dec 18, 2024 264   @ Pacific L 72-75 37%    
  Dec 21, 2024 245   @ Cal St. Bakersfield L 69-73 34%    
  Jan 04, 2025 329   @ Sacramento St. W 69-68 54%    
  Jan 09, 2025 251   Eastern Washington W 80-78 57%    
  Jan 11, 2025 291   Idaho W 77-73 64%    
  Jan 16, 2025 192   @ Northern Colorado L 76-84 25%    
  Jan 18, 2025 286   @ Northern Arizona L 76-78 42%    
  Jan 23, 2025 208   Weber St. L 73-74 48%    
  Jan 25, 2025 231   Idaho St. W 70-69 53%    
  Jan 30, 2025 212   @ Montana L 74-81 27%    
  Feb 01, 2025 139   @ Montana St. L 70-80 18%    
  Feb 06, 2025 291   @ Idaho L 74-76 42%    
  Feb 08, 2025 251   @ Eastern Washington L 77-81 36%    
  Feb 13, 2025 286   Northern Arizona W 79-75 63%    
  Feb 15, 2025 192   Northern Colorado L 79-81 45%    
  Feb 20, 2025 231   @ Idaho St. L 67-72 32%    
  Feb 22, 2025 208   @ Weber St. L 70-77 28%    
  Feb 27, 2025 139   Montana St. L 73-77 35%    
  Mar 01, 2025 212   Montana L 77-78 48%    
  Mar 03, 2025 329   Sacramento St. W 72-65 73%    
Projected Record 12 - 16 8 - 10




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Sky Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.2 0.8 1.3 1.0 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0 4.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.4 1.6 2.5 1.4 0.4 0.1 0.0 6.3 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.3 2.5 3.6 1.6 0.3 0.0 8.3 3rd
4th 0.0 0.3 2.8 4.8 1.9 0.2 0.0 10.0 4th
5th 0.0 0.3 2.8 5.8 2.6 0.2 0.0 11.6 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 2.6 6.2 3.2 0.3 0.0 12.6 6th
7th 0.0 0.3 2.3 6.2 3.7 0.5 0.0 13.1 7th
8th 0.0 0.5 2.7 5.7 3.9 0.6 0.0 13.2 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.8 3.0 4.7 2.9 0.6 0.0 12.1 9th
10th 0.1 0.5 1.3 2.4 2.8 1.5 0.3 0.0 8.8 10th
Total 0.1 0.5 1.4 3.3 6.2 9.1 11.4 13.6 13.6 12.6 10.5 7.5 5.0 2.9 1.4 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0 Total



Big Sky Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
17-1 100.0% 0.1    0.1
16-2 99.1% 0.2    0.2 0.0
15-3 88.3% 0.6    0.5 0.1 0.0
14-4 71.4% 1.0    0.6 0.3 0.0 0.0
13-5 43.5% 1.3    0.5 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0
12-6 15.0% 0.8    0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0
11-7 2.4% 0.2    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 4.0% 4.0 2.1 1.3 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.0% 0.0 0.0
17-1 0.1% 46.2% 46.2% 13.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
16-2 0.2% 29.7% 29.7% 13.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2
15-3 0.6% 26.2% 26.2% 14.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.5
14-4 1.4% 19.3% 19.3% 14.6 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 1.1
13-5 2.9% 15.2% 15.2% 15.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.1 2.5
12-6 5.0% 14.0% 14.0% 15.4 0.0 0.4 0.3 4.3
11-7 7.5% 8.6% 8.6% 15.6 0.0 0.2 0.4 6.9
10-8 10.5% 7.0% 7.0% 15.8 0.0 0.1 0.6 9.8
9-9 12.6% 5.1% 5.1% 15.9 0.0 0.6 12.0
8-10 13.6% 2.8% 2.8% 16.0 0.4 13.2
7-11 13.6% 1.4% 1.4% 16.0 0.2 13.4
6-12 11.4% 1.1% 1.1% 16.0 0.1 11.3
5-13 9.1% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.1 9.0
4-14 6.2% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 6.2
3-15 3.3% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 3.3
2-16 1.4% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 1.4
1-17 0.5% 0.5
0-18 0.1% 0.1
Total 100% 4.5% 4.5% 0.0% 15.5 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.3 2.8 95.5 0.0%