Sam Houston St.
Conference USA
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-0.4#170
Expected Predictive Rating-2.0#206
Pace70.0#139
Improvement-2.4#287

Offense
Total Offense+1.7#133
First Shot+2.5#108
After Offensive Rebound-0.7#237
Layup/Dunks-0.3#199
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.2#54
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.8#146
Freethrows-0.3#193
Improvement-4.3#352

Defense
Total Defense-2.1#240
First Shot+0.1#176
After Offensive Rebounds-2.2#332
Layups/Dunks+1.0#131
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.3#175
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.5#259
Freethrows+0.3#169
Improvement+1.9#80
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 3.4% 4.4% 2.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.2 15.0 15.5
.500 or above 4.4% 7.6% 1.5%
.500 or above in Conference 13.5% 21.8% 5.8%
Conference Champion 0.3% 0.6% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 25.2% 15.5% 34.3%
First Four1.0% 0.8% 1.1%
First Round3.1% 4.1% 2.2%
Second Round0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Middle Tennessee (Home) - 48.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 4
Quad 21 - 41 - 8
Quad 34 - 95 - 17
Quad 46 - 111 - 18


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 68   @ Nevada L 75-91 15%     0 - 1 -5.1 +8.6 -14.0
  Nov 09, 2024 262   @ Tarleton St. W 91-62 60%     1 - 1 +26.1 +13.0 +10.8
  Nov 12, 2024 22   @ Baylor L 67-104 5%     1 - 2 -19.0 -1.6 -15.8
  Nov 17, 2024 231   @ Lamar W 85-72 53%     2 - 2 +11.8 +17.0 -4.6
  Nov 27, 2024 123   Appalachian St. L 63-66 39%     2 - 3 -0.4 -1.2 +0.6
  Nov 29, 2024 141   @ UNC Wilmington L 60-69 33%     2 - 4 -4.7 -6.9 +1.4
  Nov 30, 2024 198   Colgate W 82-78 55%     3 - 4 +2.3 +14.5 -11.9
  Dec 03, 2024 56   @ Indiana L 71-97 11%     3 - 5 -13.3 -1.3 -9.6
  Dec 07, 2024 300   Texas Southern W 87-71 83%     4 - 5 +5.5 +16.8 -10.4
  Dec 21, 2024 40   @ Pittsburgh L 78-110 9%     4 - 6 -17.5 +7.8 -24.1
  Jan 02, 2025 128   @ New Mexico St. L 71-75 30%     4 - 7 0 - 1 +1.0 +6.7 -6.0
  Jan 04, 2025 131   @ UTEP L 72-81 31%     4 - 8 0 - 2 -4.4 +4.7 -9.4
  Jan 09, 2025 92   Liberty L 68-76 36%     4 - 9 0 - 3 -4.6 -1.2 -3.5
  Jan 11, 2025 241   Florida International W 81-74 74%     5 - 9 1 - 3 -0.1 +4.7 -5.1
  Jan 16, 2025 183   @ Kennesaw St. L 69-75 OT 42%     5 - 10 1 - 4 -4.2 -11.9 +8.4
  Jan 18, 2025 162   @ Jacksonville St. L 62-70 37%     5 - 11 1 - 5 -5.0 -4.1 -1.8
  Jan 23, 2025 111   Middle Tennessee L 74-75 48%    
  Jan 25, 2025 135   Western Kentucky W 79-78 54%    
  Feb 01, 2025 120   @ Louisiana Tech L 69-75 28%    
  Feb 06, 2025 241   @ Florida International W 76-75 53%    
  Feb 08, 2025 92   @ Liberty L 66-75 18%    
  Feb 13, 2025 162   Jacksonville St. W 74-72 59%    
  Feb 15, 2025 183   Kennesaw St. W 81-78 63%    
  Feb 20, 2025 135   @ Western Kentucky L 76-81 32%    
  Feb 22, 2025 111   @ Middle Tennessee L 72-78 28%    
  Mar 01, 2025 120   Louisiana Tech L 72-73 49%    
  Mar 06, 2025 131   UTEP W 75-74 52%    
  Mar 08, 2025 128   New Mexico St. W 73-72 51%    
Projected Record 10 - 18 6 - 12




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference USA Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.3 1st
2nd 0.2 0.7 0.2 1.0 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.1 0.6 0.0 1.8 3rd
4th 0.1 1.5 1.7 0.1 3.4 4th
5th 0.0 1.3 3.7 0.6 5.6 5th
6th 0.1 1.3 5.2 2.3 0.0 8.9 6th
7th 0.0 1.3 6.2 5.8 0.4 13.7 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 1.8 7.8 8.6 1.7 0.0 20.0 8th
9th 0.1 1.4 5.7 11.2 9.9 2.8 0.1 31.2 9th
10th 0.3 1.6 3.5 4.9 3.1 0.8 0.0 14.2 10th
Total 0.3 1.7 4.9 10.6 16.0 19.8 19.0 14.2 8.0 3.7 1.4 0.3 0.0 Total



Conference USA Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 100.0% 0.0    0.0
12-6 47.1% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0
11-7 9.1% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.3% 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 0.0% 0.0
12-6 0.3% 29.4% 29.4% 12.6 0.0 0.1 0.2
11-7 1.4% 9.8% 9.8% 13.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 1.3
10-8 3.7% 10.5% 10.5% 13.9 0.1 0.2 0.1 3.3
9-9 8.0% 8.1% 8.1% 14.8 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.0 7.3
8-10 14.2% 6.8% 6.8% 15.6 0.4 0.6 13.2
7-11 19.0% 3.5% 3.5% 15.9 0.1 0.6 18.3
6-12 19.8% 1.6% 1.6% 16.0 0.3 19.5
5-13 16.0% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.1 15.9
4-14 10.6% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 10.6
3-15 4.9% 4.9
2-16 1.7% 1.7
1-17 0.3% 0.3
0-18
Total 100% 3.4% 3.4% 0.0% 15.2 0.1 0.2 0.4 1.1 1.7 96.6 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.3%