Sam Houston St.
Conference USA
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+0.1#160
Expected Predictive Rating-1.8#191
Pace68.5#171
Improvement+1.9#108

Offense
Total Offense+0.8#153
First Shot+1.7#116
After Offensive Rebound-0.9#245
Layup/Dunks-0.6#204
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.2#57
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.5#163
Freethrows-0.4#201
Improvement-4.1#341

Defense
Total Defense-0.7#189
First Shot+1.3#133
After Offensive Rebounds-1.9#320
Layups/Dunks+1.5#111
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.5#158
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.1#243
Freethrows+0.4#153
Improvement+5.9#2
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 2.9% 4.2% 2.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.8 15.6 15.9
.500 or above 0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 3.8% 0.9% 5.1%
First Four1.7% 1.4% 1.8%
First Round2.5% 3.8% 1.9%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Middle Tennessee (Away) - 30.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 30 - 4
Quad 20 - 50 - 9
Quad 35 - 86 - 17
Quad 45 - 211 - 19


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 80   @ Nevada L 75-91 18%     0 - 1 -6.3 +8.0 -14.5
  Nov 09, 2024 273   @ Tarleton St. W 91-62 65%     1 - 1 +25.2 +13.8 +9.2
  Nov 12, 2024 24   @ Baylor L 67-104 6%     1 - 2 -19.1 -2.3 -15.1
  Nov 17, 2024 194   @ Lamar W 85-72 48%     2 - 2 +13.7 +18.0 -3.8
  Nov 27, 2024 141   Appalachian St. L 63-66 46%     2 - 3 -1.9 -1.4 -0.7
  Nov 29, 2024 116   @ UNC Wilmington L 60-69 31%     2 - 4 -3.6 -6.9 +2.5
  Nov 30, 2024 239   Colgate W 82-78 67%     3 - 4 -0.3 +10.3 -10.3
  Dec 03, 2024 57   @ Indiana L 71-97 12%     3 - 5 -12.9 -1.7 -8.8
  Dec 07, 2024 296   Texas Southern W 87-71 83%     4 - 5 +5.9 +17.4 -10.7
  Dec 21, 2024 52   @ Pittsburgh L 78-110 12%     4 - 6 -18.8 +7.1 -24.7
  Jan 02, 2025 146   @ New Mexico St. L 71-75 38%     4 - 7 0 - 1 -0.6 +7.8 -8.7
  Jan 04, 2025 139   @ UTEP L 72-81 36%     4 - 8 0 - 2 -5.3 +4.5 -10.0
  Jan 09, 2025 77   Liberty L 68-76 32%     4 - 9 0 - 3 -3.2 +0.0 -3.2
  Jan 11, 2025 268   Florida International W 81-74 78%     5 - 9 1 - 3 -1.1 +4.6 -5.9
  Jan 16, 2025 131   @ Kennesaw St. L 69-75 OT 35%     5 - 10 1 - 4 -1.8 -9.3 +8.3
  Jan 18, 2025 124   @ Jacksonville St. L 62-70 33%     5 - 11 1 - 5 -3.4 -1.9 -2.3
  Jan 23, 2025 122   Middle Tennessee L 75-77 52%     5 - 12 1 - 6 -2.3 +11.7 -14.2
  Jan 25, 2025 135   Western Kentucky L 66-75 55%     5 - 13 1 - 7 -10.2 -3.7 -6.8
  Feb 01, 2025 123   @ Louisiana Tech L 61-66 OT 33%     5 - 14 1 - 8 -0.3 -12.0 +11.9
  Feb 06, 2025 268   @ Florida International L 82-85 OT 62%     5 - 15 1 - 9 -6.0 +0.2 -5.8
  Feb 08, 2025 77   @ Liberty L 61-64 18%     5 - 16 1 - 10 +6.9 +0.2 +6.4
  Feb 13, 2025 124   Jacksonville St. W 66-61 52%     6 - 16 2 - 10 +4.5 -4.5 +9.3
  Feb 15, 2025 131   Kennesaw St. W 78-76 54%     7 - 16 3 - 10 +1.1 +4.7 -3.6
  Feb 20, 2025 135   @ Western Kentucky W 78-62 36%     8 - 16 4 - 10 +19.9 +11.1 +9.2
  Feb 22, 2025 122   @ Middle Tennessee L 71-76 31%    
  Mar 01, 2025 123   Louisiana Tech W 71-70 53%    
  Mar 06, 2025 139   UTEP W 74-73 57%    
  Mar 08, 2025 146   New Mexico St. W 69-67 58%    
Projected Record 10 - 18 6 - 12




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference USA Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 0.1 0.1 5th
6th 0.0 1.8 1.8 6th
7th 1.5 3.4 4.9 7th
8th 0.5 5.8 13.7 1.4 21.4 8th
9th 6.6 24.1 31.1 9.4 0.0 71.2 9th
10th 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.7 10th
Total 7.1 24.8 36.9 24.6 6.6 Total



Conference USA Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9
8-10 6.6% 7.8% 7.8% 15.2 0.4 0.1 6.1
7-11 24.6% 3.9% 3.9% 15.8 0.2 0.7 23.6
6-12 36.9% 2.5% 2.5% 16.0 0.9 36.0
5-13 24.8% 1.8% 1.8% 16.0 0.4 24.4
4-14 7.1% 1.1% 1.1% 16.0 0.1 7.0
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 2.9% 2.9% 0.0% 15.8 0.7 2.3 97.1 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.5% 100.0% 15.2 82.7 17.3
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.7%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 1.3%
Lose Out 5.2%