South Dakota
Summit League
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-4.0#239
Expected Predictive Rating+5.6#98
Pace71.8#105
Improvement-2.0#342

Offense
Total Offense+0.9#150
First Shot+1.0#138
After Offensive Rebound-0.1#185
Layup/Dunks-0.8#209
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.3#153
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.1#179
Freethrows+1.4#116
Improvement-1.4#341

Defense
Total Defense-4.9#327
First Shot-0.5#196
After Offensive Rebounds-4.3#346
Layups/Dunks-4.1#309
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.5#236
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.1#75
Freethrows+1.0#130
Improvement-0.6#274
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 9.0% 9.5% 5.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.7 14.7 15.2
.500 or above 53.1% 56.4% 30.6%
.500 or above in Conference 53.8% 55.7% 40.5%
Conference Champion 10.3% 10.9% 5.9%
Last Place in Conference 13.2% 12.2% 19.5%
First Four1.3% 1.2% 1.7%
First Round8.5% 9.0% 5.1%
Second Round0.4% 0.5% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Texas A&M - Commerce (Home) - 87.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 20 - 3
Quad 32 - 53 - 8
Quad 413 - 615 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 266   Southern W 93-79 67%     1 - 0 +5.5 +7.9 -4.0
  Nov 06, 2024 352   Texas A&M - Commerce W 80-68 87%    
  Nov 12, 2024 41   @ Iowa L 77-96 5%     1 - 1 -4.6 +6.0 -9.8
  Nov 20, 2024 323   @ Western Michigan W 80-76 58%     2 - 1 -2.0 +1.4 -3.6
  Nov 22, 2024 322   @ Southern Indiana W 76-74 57%    
  Nov 27, 2024 65   @ Nebraska L 69-84 8%    
  Dec 04, 2024 232   Idaho St. W 72-69 59%    
  Dec 07, 2024 277   @ Northern Arizona L 74-75 46%    
  Dec 10, 2024 182   Wyoming W 76-75 51%    
  Dec 14, 2024 326   Western Illinois W 76-68 77%    
  Dec 19, 2024 304   @ Utah Tech W 79-78 54%    
  Dec 21, 2024 97   @ Santa Clara L 74-86 14%    
  Jan 02, 2025 217   @ UMKC L 72-76 36%    
  Jan 04, 2025 294   Denver W 83-77 71%    
  Jan 11, 2025 168   @ St. Thomas L 73-79 28%    
  Jan 16, 2025 249   Oral Roberts W 80-76 63%    
  Jan 18, 2025 241   North Dakota St. W 77-74 61%    
  Jan 23, 2025 253   @ North Dakota L 76-78 42%    
  Jan 25, 2025 153   @ South Dakota St. L 77-84 26%    
  Jan 29, 2025 259   Nebraska Omaha W 79-75 65%    
  Feb 06, 2025 294   @ Denver W 80-79 51%    
  Feb 08, 2025 249   @ Oral Roberts L 77-79 42%    
  Feb 13, 2025 217   UMKC W 75-73 56%    
  Feb 15, 2025 153   South Dakota St. L 80-81 45%    
  Feb 19, 2025 168   St. Thomas L 76-77 49%    
  Feb 22, 2025 259   @ Nebraska Omaha L 76-78 44%    
  Feb 26, 2025 241   @ North Dakota St. L 74-77 40%    
  Mar 01, 2025 253   North Dakota W 79-75 63%    
Projected Record 14 - 14 8 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Summit League Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.6 2.1 3.0 2.7 1.4 0.5 0.1 10.3 1st
2nd 0.0 1.0 4.0 4.2 2.1 0.5 0.0 11.9 2nd
3rd 0.0 1.2 5.1 4.6 1.4 0.2 12.5 3rd
4th 0.0 1.0 5.2 4.8 1.2 0.0 12.2 4th
5th 0.0 0.8 5.0 5.4 1.1 0.1 12.4 5th
6th 0.0 0.8 4.2 5.6 1.2 0.0 11.9 6th
7th 0.0 0.8 3.7 4.9 1.3 0.0 10.9 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 1.2 3.4 3.9 1.3 0.1 10.0 8th
9th 0.1 0.7 1.7 2.5 2.1 0.7 0.1 7.9 9th
Total 0.1 0.7 1.9 3.7 6.3 9.1 11.4 13.0 13.1 12.2 10.4 7.7 5.3 3.1 1.4 0.5 0.1 Total



Summit League Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
15-1 100.0% 0.5    0.5 0.0
14-2 96.7% 1.4    1.2 0.1
13-3 84.8% 2.7    2.1 0.6 0.0
12-4 56.7% 3.0    1.6 1.2 0.2 0.0
11-5 26.8% 2.1    0.6 1.0 0.4 0.1 0.0
10-6 5.3% 0.6    0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
9-7 0.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
8-8 0.0%
Total 10.3% 10.3 6.1 3.0 0.9 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0 0.1% 55.3% 55.3% 12.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
15-1 0.5% 48.8% 48.8% 12.8 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.3
14-2 1.4% 33.9% 33.9% 13.4 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.9
13-3 3.1% 29.2% 29.2% 13.7 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.0 2.2
12-4 5.3% 23.1% 23.1% 14.2 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.4 0.0 4.1
11-5 7.7% 18.7% 18.7% 14.6 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.7 0.2 6.2
10-6 10.4% 14.2% 14.2% 15.0 0.0 0.3 0.8 0.4 8.9
9-7 12.2% 9.8% 9.8% 15.3 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.5 11.0
8-8 13.1% 6.3% 6.3% 15.5 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.5 12.3
7-9 13.0% 4.9% 4.9% 15.9 0.1 0.5 12.3
6-10 11.4% 2.8% 2.8% 15.9 0.0 0.3 11.1
5-11 9.1% 1.3% 1.3% 16.0 0.1 9.0
4-12 6.3% 0.9% 0.9% 16.0 0.1 6.2
3-13 3.7% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 3.7
2-14 1.9% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 1.9
1-15 0.7% 0.7
0-16 0.1% 0.1
Total 100% 9.0% 9.0% 0.0% 14.7 0.0 0.3 1.0 2.1 3.0 2.6 91.0 0.0%