South Dakota St.
Summit League
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+2.2#124
Expected Predictive Rating+1.7#143
Pace71.2#92
Improvement-3.8#321

Offense
Total Offense+2.4#108
First Shot-0.3#184
After Offensive Rebound+2.7#35
Layup/Dunks-0.4#197
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.6#208
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.9#113
Freethrows-1.1#255
Improvement-1.2#247

Defense
Total Defense-0.1#176
First Shot-2.8#263
After Offensive Rebounds+2.6#17
Layups/Dunks+4.8#42
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.3#330
3 Pt Jumpshots-6.4#355
Freethrows+1.1#105
Improvement-2.6#309
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 28.9% 36.0% 0.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.5 13.5 n/a
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round28.9% 36.0% 0.0%
Second Round2.0% 2.4% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.2% 0.2% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Projected Seeding 14 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 3
Quad 21 - 21 - 5
Quad 35 - 56 - 10
Quad 412 - 219 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 72   McNeese St. W 80-73 30%     1 - 0 +14.8 +6.6 +7.9
  Nov 08, 2024 298   Long Beach St. W 80-79 88%     2 - 0 -9.6 +1.3 -10.9
  Nov 14, 2024 136   Northern Colorado L 69-78 54%     2 - 1 -7.7 -6.0 -1.6
  Nov 20, 2024 295   Southern Miss W 101-76 88%     3 - 1 +14.8 +8.1 +2.3
  Nov 24, 2024 125   Duquesne W 71-60 50%     4 - 1 +13.2 +5.2 +8.7
  Nov 25, 2024 50   Boise St. L 82-83 20%     4 - 2 +10.3 +14.7 -4.4
  Nov 26, 2024 224   Missouri St. W 75-55 71%     5 - 2 +16.6 +7.3 +10.7
  Dec 04, 2024 177   @ Montana L 67-71 51%     5 - 3 -2.1 -9.8 +7.8
  Dec 07, 2024 291   Eastern Washington W 74-53 87%     6 - 3 +11.0 -1.6 +13.3
  Dec 11, 2024 79   @ Nevada L 63-77 24%     6 - 4 -4.2 +5.6 -12.2
  Dec 13, 2024 90   @ Colorado L 70-81 27%     6 - 5 -2.5 +9.3 -12.6
  Dec 29, 2024 5   @ Alabama L 82-105 4%     6 - 6 +0.3 +10.2 -8.0
  Jan 02, 2025 301   Denver W 91-70 88%     7 - 6 1 - 0 +10.3 +6.3 +2.3
  Jan 08, 2025 132   @ St. Thomas L 72-73 42%     7 - 7 1 - 1 +3.3 +4.4 -1.2
  Jan 11, 2025 174   @ Nebraska Omaha L 80-87 51%     7 - 8 1 - 2 -5.0 +3.4 -8.3
  Jan 16, 2025 275   North Dakota W 109-73 85%     8 - 8 2 - 2 +26.9 +21.6 +3.3
  Jan 18, 2025 321   Oral Roberts W 84-70 91%     9 - 8 3 - 2 +1.7 +3.4 -1.6
  Jan 23, 2025 232   @ UMKC W 65-64 63%     10 - 8 4 - 2 -0.1 -2.2 +2.2
  Jan 25, 2025 233   South Dakota W 90-71 80%     11 - 8 5 - 2 +12.5 +5.0 +6.4
  Jan 30, 2025 138   @ North Dakota St. W 72-62 44%     12 - 8 6 - 2 +13.9 +5.6 +9.6
  Feb 01, 2025 275   @ North Dakota L 75-80 71%     12 - 9 6 - 3 -8.6 +0.8 -9.7
  Feb 06, 2025 132   St. Thomas W 102-86 63%     13 - 9 7 - 3 +14.8 +16.9 -3.3
  Feb 13, 2025 174   Nebraska Omaha W 98-85 71%     14 - 9 8 - 3 +9.5 +16.6 -7.6
  Feb 16, 2025 233   @ South Dakota W 94-91 63%     15 - 9 9 - 3 +1.9 +9.2 -7.5
  Feb 19, 2025 138   North Dakota St. L 68-77 64%     15 - 10 9 - 4 -10.6 -3.4 -8.1
  Feb 23, 2025 232   UMKC W 70-65 80%     16 - 10 10 - 4 -1.5 +4.4 -5.3
  Feb 27, 2025 321   @ Oral Roberts W 77-69 80%     17 - 10 11 - 4 +1.2 +0.2 +1.1
  Mar 01, 2025 301   @ Denver L 62-78 76%     17 - 11 11 - 5 -21.2 -12.2 -9.0
  Mar 07, 2025 275   North Dakota W 85-76 79%    
Projected Record 18 - 11 11 - 5




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Summit League Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 100.0 100.0 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
Total 100.0 Total



Summit League Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3
12-4
11-5 0.0%
10-6
9-7
8-8
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3
12-4
11-5 100.0% 28.9% 28.9% 13.5 1.3 12.4 13.9 1.3 71.1
10-6
9-7
8-8
7-9
6-10
5-11
4-12
3-13
2-14
1-15
0-16
Total 100% 28.9% 28.9% 0.0% 13.5 1.3 12.4 13.9 1.3 71.1 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 28.9% 100.0% 13.5 4.4 43.1 47.9 4.6
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 18.1%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 33.2%
Lose Out 19.8%