South Dakota St.
Summit League
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+0.4#153
Expected Predictive Rating+5.0#114
Pace75.1#52
Improvement+0.4#140

Offense
Total Offense+0.8#156
First Shot+0.9#149
After Offensive Rebound-0.1#183
Layup/Dunks+2.3#100
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.5#260
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.8#277
Freethrows+2.8#45
Improvement+0.0#170

Defense
Total Defense-0.4#176
First Shot-2.6#270
After Offensive Rebounds+2.2#48
Layups/Dunks+2.8#86
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.3#315
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.0#228
Freethrows-2.1#295
Improvement+0.3#139
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 27.3% 29.9% 23.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.8 13.6 14.2
.500 or above 81.7% 88.2% 71.5%
.500 or above in Conference 87.5% 90.3% 83.0%
Conference Champion 39.9% 44.2% 33.2%
Last Place in Conference 2.1% 1.5% 3.1%
First Four0.9% 0.5% 1.5%
First Round26.9% 29.6% 22.6%
Second Round2.3% 2.8% 1.4%
Sweet Sixteen0.5% 0.6% 0.3%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Duquesne (Neutral) - 61.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 15 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 21 - 11 - 3
Quad 33 - 44 - 7
Quad 413 - 417 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 93   McNeese St. W 80-73 30%     1 - 0 +12.9 +5.3 +7.3
  Nov 08, 2024 262   Long Beach St. W 80-79 80%     2 - 0 -7.4 +2.8 -10.2
  Nov 14, 2024 147   Northern Colorado L 69-78 48%     2 - 1 -8.2 -4.5 -3.6
  Nov 20, 2024 253   Southern Miss W 101-76 79%     3 - 1 +17.1 +7.5 +5.2
  Nov 24, 2024 214   Duquesne W 74-71 61%    
  Dec 04, 2024 207   @ Montana L 75-76 49%    
  Dec 07, 2024 244   Eastern Washington W 86-78 76%    
  Dec 11, 2024 42   @ Nevada L 65-78 11%    
  Dec 13, 2024 66   @ Colorado L 69-80 17%    
  Dec 29, 2024 10   @ Alabama L 74-94 3%    
  Jan 02, 2025 297   Denver W 85-74 83%    
  Jan 08, 2025 194   @ St. Thomas L 75-76 46%    
  Jan 11, 2025 293   @ Nebraska Omaha W 79-75 64%    
  Jan 16, 2025 237   North Dakota W 81-74 74%    
  Jan 18, 2025 263   Oral Roberts W 83-74 78%    
  Jan 23, 2025 235   @ UMKC W 72-71 54%    
  Jan 25, 2025 257   South Dakota W 87-78 77%    
  Jan 30, 2025 243   @ North Dakota St. W 76-74 56%    
  Feb 01, 2025 237   @ North Dakota W 78-77 54%    
  Feb 06, 2025 194   St. Thomas W 78-73 67%    
  Feb 13, 2025 293   Nebraska Omaha W 82-72 81%    
  Feb 15, 2025 257   @ South Dakota W 84-81 58%    
  Feb 19, 2025 243   North Dakota St. W 79-71 74%    
  Feb 23, 2025 235   UMKC W 75-68 73%    
  Feb 27, 2025 263   @ Oral Roberts W 80-77 60%    
  Mar 01, 2025 297   @ Denver W 82-77 66%    
Projected Record 16 - 10 11 - 5




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Summit League Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.1 1.0 4.5 9.4 10.6 8.3 4.6 1.4 39.9 1st
2nd 0.0 1.2 5.6 7.6 4.5 1.3 0.2 20.4 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.9 4.9 5.5 2.0 0.2 0.0 13.4 3rd
4th 0.0 0.4 3.3 4.1 1.1 0.1 9.1 4th
5th 0.2 2.0 3.3 0.9 0.0 6.4 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 1.1 2.5 0.8 0.0 4.6 6th
7th 0.1 0.8 1.6 0.7 0.0 3.1 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.9 0.4 0.0 1.9 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.0 1.1 9th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.9 2.0 3.3 5.7 8.3 11.1 13.2 14.2 14.2 12.0 8.5 4.6 1.4 Total



Summit League Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0 100.0% 1.4    1.4
15-1 100.0% 4.6    4.6 0.0
14-2 98.2% 8.3    7.8 0.5
13-3 89.0% 10.6    8.5 2.1 0.1
12-4 66.2% 9.4    5.4 3.4 0.5 0.0
11-5 31.8% 4.5    1.4 2.0 1.0 0.1
10-6 7.7% 1.0    0.1 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.0
9-7 0.5% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
8-8 0.0%
Total 39.9% 39.9 29.2 8.4 1.9 0.4 0.1



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0 1.4% 63.3% 63.1% 0.3% 11.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.5 0.8%
15-1 4.6% 58.1% 58.1% 12.6 0.0 0.2 1.1 1.1 0.3 0.0 1.9
14-2 8.5% 48.0% 48.0% 13.0 0.0 1.0 1.9 1.0 0.2 4.4
13-3 12.0% 41.3% 41.3% 13.5 0.0 0.5 1.9 2.0 0.5 0.0 7.0
12-4 14.2% 33.5% 33.5% 13.9 0.2 1.2 2.1 1.1 0.1 9.4
11-5 14.2% 26.3% 26.3% 14.2 0.0 0.7 1.6 1.3 0.2 10.4
10-6 13.2% 20.8% 20.8% 14.7 0.0 0.2 0.8 1.4 0.4 10.5
9-7 11.1% 16.1% 16.1% 15.0 0.0 0.3 1.0 0.5 9.3
8-8 8.3% 11.9% 11.9% 15.4 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.5 7.4
7-9 5.7% 7.8% 7.8% 15.8 0.0 0.1 0.3 5.2
6-10 3.3% 5.2% 5.2% 16.0 0.0 0.2 3.2
5-11 2.0% 4.3% 4.3% 16.0 0.1 1.9
4-12 0.9% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 0.9
3-13 0.4% 6.4% 6.4% 16.0 0.0 0.4
2-14 0.2% 0.2
1-15 0.0% 0.0
0-16 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 27.3% 27.3% 0.0% 13.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 3.3 7.2 8.2 5.9 2.2 72.7 0.0%