IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Southeast Missouri St.
Ohio Valley
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating	-6.2	#269
Expected Predictive Rating	-5.6	#261

Pace	71.8	#92
Improvement	-0.2	#193

Offense
Total Offense	-4.8	#303

First Shot	-1.3	#212
After Offensive Rebound	-3.4	#341

Layup/Dunks	-2.0	#256
2 Pt Jumpshots	+5.8	#7
3 Pt Jumpshots	-1.9	#237
Freethrows	-3.2	#348

Improvement	+1.3	#102

Defense
Total Defense	-1.4	#221

First Shot	-0.2	#186
After Offensive Rebounds	-1.2	#289

Layups/Dunks	-0.7	#200
2 Pt Jumpshots	-0.4	#230
3 Pt Jumpshots	+4.9	#18
Freethrows	-4.0	#360

Improvement	-1.5	#266

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
#1 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 2 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 4 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 6 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid	14.2%	16.7%	10.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Average Seed	15.9	15.8	15.9

.500 or above	54.0%	64.7%	38.5%
.500 or above in Conference	89.0%	94.7%	80.7%
Conference Champion	10.9%	14.7%	5.3%
Last Place in Conference	0.2%	0.0%	0.4%

First Four	8.3%	9.0%	7.3%
First Round	9.9%	12.0%	7.0%
Second Round	0.1%	0.1%	0.1%
Sweet Sixteen	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Elite Eight	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Final Four	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Championship Game	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
National Champion	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Next Game: Lindenwood (Away) - 59.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Not in Tournament

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	0 - 1	0 - 1
Quad 1b	0 - 2	0 - 2
Quad 2	0 - 1	0 - 4
Quad 3	0 - 3	0 - 6
Quad 4	14 - 9	15 - 15

Date	Opponent		Result/Prediction			Record	Conf		Rating	Offense	Defense
Nov 04, 2024	73	@ Bradley	L	60-88	7%	0 - 1			-17.6	-8.1	-9.2
Nov 10, 2024	48	@ Vanderbilt	L	76-85	4%	0 - 2			+4.5	+5.6	-0.7
Nov 17, 2024	156	Chattanooga	L	82-87	35%	0 - 3			-7.3	-6.0	-0.7
Nov 21, 2024	339	@ Central Arkansas	W	77-73 OT	60%	1 - 3			-4.7	-7.7	+2.5
Nov 22, 2024	187	UNC Asheville	L	64-72	32%	1 - 4			-9.2	-13.1	+3.8
Nov 30, 2024	223	UMKC	W	80-59	50%	2 - 4			+14.7	-2.2	+15.0
Dec 05, 2024	91	@ Lipscomb	L	60-78	9%	2 - 5			-9.1	-7.9	-1.4
Dec 08, 2024	142	@ Murray St.	L	53-73	16%	2 - 6			-15.8	-10.0	-8.6
Dec 19, 2024	344	Eastern Illinois	W	79-72	79%	3 - 6	1 - 0		-7.5	+7.6	-14.5
Dec 21, 2024	263	SIU Edwardsville	W	80-64	59%	4 - 6	2 - 0		+7.5	+7.7	+0.4
Jan 02, 2025	301	@ Tennessee St.	W	67-65	46%	5 - 6	3 - 0		-3.1	-9.9	+6.7
Jan 04, 2025	288	@ Tennessee Martin	L	63-66	44%	5 - 7	3 - 1		-7.5	-3.5	-4.4
Jan 09, 2025	324	Southern Indiana	W	77-66	73%	6 - 7	4 - 1		-1.6	-2.5	+0.8
Jan 11, 2025	259	Morehead St.	L	56-67	58%	6 - 8	4 - 2		-19.2	-12.8	-7.6
Jan 14, 2025	238	Arkansas Little Rock	L	71-73	54%	6 - 9	4 - 3		-9.1	-2.1	-7.0
Jan 16, 2025	317	@ Tennessee Tech	W	77-70	50%	7 - 9	5 - 3		+0.8	+5.5	-4.3
Jan 23, 2025	341	@ Lindenwood	W	73-70	59%
Jan 25, 2025	336	@ Western Illinois	W	70-67	58%
Jan 30, 2025	288	Tennessee Martin	W	74-70	65%
Feb 01, 2025	301	Tennessee St.	W	77-73	66%
Feb 06, 2025	259	@ Morehead St.	L	66-69	36%
Feb 08, 2025	324	@ Southern Indiana	W	73-72	53%
Feb 11, 2025	238	@ Arkansas Little Rock	L	67-72	32%
Feb 15, 2025	317	Tennessee Tech	W	75-69	70%
Feb 20, 2025	336	Western Illinois	W	72-64	78%
Feb 22, 2025	341	Lindenwood	W	76-68	78%
Feb 27, 2025	263	@ SIU Edwardsville	L	67-70	37%
Mar 01, 2025	344	@ Eastern Illinois	W	70-67	60%
Projected Record						14 - 14	12 - 8

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected Ohio Valley Finish

	0-20	1-19	2-18	3-17	4-16	5-15	6-14	7-13	8-12	9-11	10-10	11-9	12-8	13-7	14-6	15-5	16-4	17-3	18-2	19-1	20-0		Total
1st												0.0	0.1	1.0	3.5	3.9	1.8	0.4					10.9	1st
2nd												0.1	1.8	6.3	6.6	2.3	0.3						17.4	2nd
3rd											0.1	2.1	8.1	7.8	2.6	0.2							20.9	3rd
4th										0.0	1.3	7.6	8.4	2.3	0.2								19.7	4th
5th									0.0	0.8	5.5	6.6	2.0	0.1									15.0	5th
6th									0.3	3.0	4.0	1.2	0.0										8.5	6th
7th								0.1	1.0	2.6	0.8	0.0											4.5	7th
8th								0.3	1.2	0.6	0.0												2.1	8th
9th							0.1	0.4	0.4	0.0													0.9	9th
10th							0.1	0.1	0.1														0.3	10th
11th						0.0	0.0																0.0	11th

Total						0.0	0.2	0.9	2.8	7.1	11.7	17.6	20.4	17.6	12.8	6.4	2.1	0.4						Total

Ohio Valley Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total		Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way	7-Way	8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3	100.0%	0.4		0.4	0.0
16-4	86.0%	1.8		1.4	0.4	0.0
15-5	61.9%	3.9		2.0	1.7	0.3
14-6	27.3%	3.5		1.0	1.7	0.7	0.1	0.0
13-7	5.8%	1.0		0.1	0.3	0.3	0.2	0.1
12-8	0.6%	0.1				0.1	0.0	0.0		0.0
11-9	0.1%	0.0							0.0
10-10	0.0%

Total	10.9%	10.9		4.9	4.1	1.5	0.3	0.1	0.0	0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance		Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid		At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3	0.4%		40.9%	40.9%		14.2													0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1		0.3
16-4	2.1%		39.3%	39.3%		15.3															0.1	0.5	0.3	1.3
15-5	6.4%		31.3%	31.3%		15.8															0.0	0.4	1.5	4.4
14-6	12.8%		26.1%	26.1%		15.9																0.3	3.1	9.5
13-7	17.6%		19.7%	19.7%		16.0																0.2	3.3	14.1
12-8	20.4%		12.4%	12.4%		16.0																0.0	2.5	17.9
11-9	17.6%		6.3%	6.3%		16.0																0.0	1.1	16.5
10-10	11.7%		3.9%	3.9%		16.0																	0.5	11.2
9-11	7.1%		3.2%	3.2%		16.0																	0.2	6.9
8-12	2.8%		1.4%	1.4%		16.0																	0.0	2.8
7-13	0.9%		1.1%	1.1%		16.0																	0.0	0.9
6-14	0.2%																							0.2
5-15	0.0%																							0.0
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20

Total	100%		14.2%	14.2%	0.0%	15.9													0.0	0.0	0.2	1.5	12.5	85.8		0.0%