Southern Illinois
Missouri Valley
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+0.7#153
Expected Predictive Rating-6.3#281
Pace66.1#279
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+0.3#164
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+0.4#155
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 7.0% 7.8% 4.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.2 13.0 13.8
.500 or above 50.0% 57.2% 29.7%
.500 or above in Conference 60.2% 65.8% 44.4%
Conference Champion 7.8% 8.8% 4.9%
Last Place in Conference 4.8% 3.3% 9.0%
First Four0.3% 0.1% 0.8%
First Round7.0% 7.8% 4.5%
Second Round1.3% 1.7% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.4% 0.6% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: North Dakota St. (Home) - 74.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 21 - 41 - 6
Quad 35 - 77 - 13
Quad 48 - 315 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 99   College of Charleston L 80-90 34%     0 - 1 -4.9 +0.6 -4.6
  Nov 14, 2024 87   @ Oklahoma St. L 78-85 21%     0 - 2 +2.3 +6.5 -3.9
  Nov 18, 2024 220   North Dakota St. W 75-68 74%    
  Nov 22, 2024 21   @ Florida L 69-84 8%    
  Nov 25, 2024 85   Louisiana Tech L 65-71 31%    
  Nov 26, 2024 225   Eastern Kentucky W 75-71 63%    
  Dec 03, 2024 91   Bradley L 69-71 43%    
  Dec 07, 2024 316   Southern Indiana W 75-63 87%    
  Dec 14, 2024 214   @ Austin Peay W 68-67 53%    
  Dec 21, 2024 124   High Point W 75-74 53%    
  Dec 29, 2024 125   @ Northern Iowa L 67-72 32%    
  Jan 01, 2025 248   Evansville W 74-66 76%    
  Jan 05, 2025 175   @ Illinois St. L 66-68 43%    
  Jan 08, 2025 150   @ Belmont L 73-76 39%    
  Jan 11, 2025 194   Missouri St. W 72-66 71%    
  Jan 15, 2025 194   @ Missouri St. L 68-69 52%    
  Jan 18, 2025 125   Northern Iowa W 70-69 53%    
  Jan 22, 2025 136   Murray St. W 68-66 60%    
  Jan 25, 2025 161   @ Illinois-Chicago L 72-75 42%    
  Jan 28, 2025 280   @ Valparaiso W 73-69 62%    
  Feb 01, 2025 98   @ Drake L 65-73 26%    
  Feb 05, 2025 248   @ Evansville W 71-69 57%    
  Feb 08, 2025 161   Illinois-Chicago W 75-72 62%    
  Feb 12, 2025 91   @ Bradley L 66-74 25%    
  Feb 15, 2025 150   Belmont W 76-73 59%    
  Feb 19, 2025 136   @ Murray St. L 65-69 39%    
  Feb 22, 2025 280   Valparaiso W 76-66 79%    
  Feb 25, 2025 175   Illinois St. W 69-65 65%    
  Mar 02, 2025 209   @ Indiana St. W 74-73 50%    
Projected Record 14 - 15 10 - 10




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Missouri Valley Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.3 1.0 1.8 2.5 1.5 0.6 0.2 0.0 7.8 1st
2nd 0.1 0.3 2.2 2.2 2.6 1.1 0.4 0.0 8.8 2nd
3rd 0.9 2.2 5.0 2.7 0.8 0.0 11.7 3rd
4th 0.3 3.4 4.9 1.4 0.4 0.1 10.4 4th
5th 0.2 2.3 4.9 2.4 0.4 0.0 10.2 5th
6th 0.2 2.5 5.2 2.3 0.4 0.0 10.6 6th
7th 0.4 1.9 4.4 2.6 0.4 0.0 9.7 7th
8th 0.0 2.0 3.1 2.6 0.4 0.0 8.1 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.9 3.8 2.7 0.6 0.1 8.1 9th
10th 0.1 0.3 1.1 2.7 2.0 0.7 0.0 7.0 10th
11th 0.1 0.3 1.4 1.8 1.0 0.3 5.0 11th
12th 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.1 2.6 12th
Total 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.1 2.3 3.5 4.8 8.5 8.5 10.3 11.0 11.9 10.3 9.2 6.4 5.2 3.6 1.9 0.6 0.2 0.0 Total



Missouri Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
19-1 100.0% 0.2    0.2
18-2 99.1% 0.6    0.6 0.0
17-3 81.1% 1.5    1.1 0.4
16-4 68.2% 2.5    1.4 0.9 0.2
15-5 34.2% 1.8    0.4 1.2 0.1 0.0
14-6 15.9% 1.0    0.1 0.4 0.4 0.1
13-7 3.1% 0.3    0.2 0.0 0.1
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 7.8% 7.8 3.8 2.9 1.0 0.2 0.1



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.0% 0.0
19-1 0.2% 50.0% 48.5% 1.5% 11.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 2.9%
18-2 0.6% 59.4% 59.4% 11.4 0.2 0.1 0.2
17-3 1.9% 45.2% 45.2% 11.9 0.1 0.6 0.1 1.0
16-4 3.6% 20.4% 20.4% 12.5 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.1 2.9
15-5 5.2% 20.5% 20.5% 12.6 0.5 0.5 0.1 4.1
14-6 6.4% 18.2% 18.2% 13.3 0.1 0.6 0.5 0.0 5.3
13-7 9.2% 10.5% 10.5% 13.7 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.2 8.2
12-8 10.3% 7.7% 7.7% 13.8 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.1 0.1 9.5
11-9 11.9% 2.1% 2.1% 14.3 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 11.7
10-10 11.0% 3.9% 3.9% 14.4 0.1 0.0 0.3 0.0 10.6
9-11 10.3% 0.7% 0.7% 15.1 0.1 0.0 10.2
8-12 8.5% 0.1% 0.1% 15.7 0.0 0.0 8.5
7-13 8.5% 2.4% 2.4% 16.0 0.2 8.3
6-14 4.8% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 4.8
5-15 3.5% 2.0% 2.0% 16.0 0.1 3.4
4-16 2.3% 2.3
3-17 1.1% 1.1
2-18 0.6% 0.6
1-19 0.2% 0.2
0-20 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 7.0% 7.0% 0.0% 13.2 0.0 0.5 1.8 2.3 1.4 0.6 0.4 93.0 0.0%