St. John's
Big East
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
Switch to All-time Team Page
Overall
Predictive Rating+13.9#18
Expected Predictive Rating+7.8#65
Pace72.6#94
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+7.6#20
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+6.4#23
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.8% 1.0% 0.2%
#1 Seed 4.5% 5.4% 1.6%
Top 2 Seed 11.2% 13.0% 4.8%
Top 4 Seed 27.9% 31.5% 15.5%
Top 6 Seed 45.2% 49.8% 29.4%
NCAA Tourney Bid 79.2% 83.2% 65.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 75.8% 80.2% 61.5%
Average Seed 6.0 5.8 6.8
.500 or above 95.7% 97.4% 90.0%
.500 or above in Conference 86.0% 88.2% 78.7%
Conference Champion 14.2% 15.6% 9.3%
Last Place in Conference 0.8% 0.6% 1.5%
First Four4.4% 4.1% 5.6%
First Round77.0% 81.2% 62.4%
Second Round54.3% 58.3% 40.8%
Sweet Sixteen27.5% 30.5% 17.2%
Elite Eight13.1% 14.7% 7.8%
Final Four6.2% 6.9% 3.7%
Championship Game2.7% 3.1% 1.5%
National Champion1.3% 1.5% 0.6%

Next Game: New Mexico (Home) - 77.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 5 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a2 - 42 - 4
Quad 1b3 - 24 - 6
Quad 27 - 311 - 9
Quad 36 - 117 - 9
Quad 45 - 023 - 9


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 159   Fordham W 92-60 93%     1 - 0 +29.5 +14.6 +13.0
  Nov 09, 2024 247   Quinnipiac W 96-73 96%     2 - 0 +15.8 +8.8 +4.3
  Nov 13, 2024 275   Wagner W 66-45 97%     3 - 0 +12.0 -1.6 +15.4
  Nov 17, 2024 56   New Mexico W 89-81 77%    
  Nov 21, 2024 13   Baylor L 74-75 45%    
  Nov 24, 2024 68   Georgia W 80-74 71%    
  Nov 30, 2024 236   Harvard W 83-63 97%    
  Dec 07, 2024 42   Kansas St. W 76-70 71%    
  Dec 11, 2024 193   Bryant W 90-71 95%    
  Dec 17, 2024 114   @ DePaul W 79-72 74%    
  Dec 20, 2024 84   @ Providence W 72-68 64%    
  Dec 28, 2024 204   Delaware W 85-66 96%    
  Dec 31, 2024 16   @ Creighton L 74-77 40%    
  Jan 04, 2025 93   Butler W 81-70 84%    
  Jan 07, 2025 41   @ Xavier W 80-79 51%    
  Jan 11, 2025 77   Villanova W 77-68 80%    
  Jan 14, 2025 105   Georgetown W 81-69 86%    
  Jan 18, 2025 97   @ Seton Hall W 69-63 69%    
  Jan 22, 2025 41   Xavier W 83-77 71%    
  Jan 28, 2025 105   @ Georgetown W 78-72 71%    
  Feb 01, 2025 84   Providence W 75-65 80%    
  Feb 04, 2025 29   Marquette W 77-73 65%    
  Feb 07, 2025 1   @ Connecticut L 67-76 21%    
  Feb 12, 2025 77   @ Villanova W 74-71 62%    
  Feb 16, 2025 16   Creighton W 77-74 60%    
  Feb 19, 2025 114   @ DePaul W 79-72 74%    
  Feb 23, 2025 1   Connecticut L 70-73 38%    
  Feb 26, 2025 93   @ Butler W 78-73 67%    
  Mar 01, 2025 97   Seton Hall W 72-60 85%    
  Mar 08, 2025 29   @ Marquette L 74-76 45%    
Projected Record 21 - 9 13 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big East Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.4 1.8 3.2 4.0 3.1 1.4 0.3 14.2 1st
2nd 0.0 0.5 2.5 5.5 7.2 5.1 2.1 0.3 23.2 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.9 3.6 6.4 5.9 2.5 0.5 0.0 20.0 3rd
4th 0.1 1.1 3.8 5.3 3.5 0.9 0.1 14.8 4th
5th 0.1 0.9 3.4 3.8 1.9 0.3 0.0 10.4 5th
6th 0.0 0.6 2.6 2.7 1.0 0.1 7.1 6th
7th 0.0 0.5 1.6 1.6 0.6 0.0 0.0 4.4 7th
8th 0.0 0.4 1.1 1.2 0.4 0.0 3.0 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.6 0.2 0.0 1.7 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.9 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.4 11th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.4 2.3 3.6 5.5 7.8 9.6 11.4 12.8 12.8 11.5 8.8 6.1 3.4 1.4 0.3 Total



Big East Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.3    0.3
19-1 100.0% 1.4    1.3 0.1
18-2 90.0% 3.1    2.5 0.6
17-3 65.8% 4.0    2.6 1.3 0.1
16-4 36.5% 3.2    1.4 1.5 0.3 0.0
15-5 15.3% 1.8    0.6 0.8 0.3 0.1
14-6 3.4% 0.4    0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0
13-7 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 14.2% 14.2 8.7 4.5 0.9 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.3% 100.0% 57.1% 42.9% 1.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 100.0%
19-1 1.4% 100.0% 44.8% 55.2% 1.5 0.9 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
18-2 3.4% 100.0% 39.5% 60.5% 1.9 1.4 1.2 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 100.0%
17-3 6.1% 99.9% 32.0% 67.8% 2.6 1.2 2.1 1.5 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.8%
16-4 8.8% 99.8% 23.9% 75.9% 3.4 0.6 1.9 2.5 2.1 1.2 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.8%
15-5 11.5% 99.4% 19.5% 79.9% 4.5 0.2 0.8 2.1 2.9 2.4 1.7 0.8 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.1 99.2%
14-6 12.8% 98.4% 15.6% 82.8% 5.9 0.0 0.2 0.8 1.9 2.6 2.6 2.0 1.1 0.8 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.2 98.1%
13-7 12.8% 94.8% 11.3% 83.5% 7.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.6 2.2 2.4 2.1 1.6 1.0 0.4 0.0 0.7 94.1%
12-8 11.4% 87.3% 8.5% 78.8% 8.2 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.1 1.6 2.1 1.9 1.6 0.9 0.1 1.5 86.1%
11-9 9.6% 73.3% 5.2% 68.1% 9.1 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.2 1.6 1.7 1.4 0.1 2.6 71.9%
10-10 7.8% 52.9% 3.2% 49.7% 9.8 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.7 1.2 1.3 0.2 3.7 51.3%
9-11 5.5% 25.4% 2.1% 23.3% 10.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.7 0.1 4.1 23.8%
8-12 3.6% 9.1% 2.6% 6.6% 11.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 3.3 6.8%
7-13 2.3% 2.4% 0.3% 2.1% 11.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.3 2.2%
6-14 1.4% 0.7% 0.5% 0.2% 13.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.4 0.2%
5-15 0.7% 0.7
4-16 0.3% 0.3
3-17 0.1% 0.1
2-18 0.0% 0.0
1-19 0.0% 0.0
0-20 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 79.2% 13.8% 65.3% 6.0 4.5 6.7 7.8 8.9 8.8 8.5 7.8 7.4 6.8 6.3 4.9 0.7 0.0 0.0 20.8 75.8%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 1.1 91.7 8.3