St. John's
Big East
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+16.5#17
Expected Predictive Rating+15.8#23
Pace73.3#66
Improvement+0.4#163

Offense
Total Offense+5.8#48
First Shot+1.5#132
After Offensive Rebound+4.4#7
Layup/Dunks+1.8#118
2 Pt Jumpshots+4.4#15
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.9#299
Freethrows-0.8#233
Improvement-3.7#345

Defense
Total Defense+10.7#6
First Shot+11.3#2
After Offensive Rebounds-0.7#246
Layups/Dunks+3.5#62
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.3#80
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.8#33
Freethrows+2.7#29
Improvement+4.1#16
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.2% 0.3% 0.0%
#1 Seed 2.4% 2.9% 0.7%
Top 2 Seed 7.8% 9.3% 2.6%
Top 4 Seed 30.1% 34.3% 15.8%
Top 6 Seed 60.1% 64.7% 44.2%
NCAA Tourney Bid 96.4% 97.6% 92.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 95.0% 96.6% 89.8%
Average Seed 5.7 5.5 6.6
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 99.9% 100.0% 99.7%
Conference Champion 54.6% 59.7% 37.1%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four1.4% 0.9% 2.9%
First Round95.8% 97.2% 91.0%
Second Round73.3% 75.9% 64.5%
Sweet Sixteen37.1% 39.4% 29.1%
Elite Eight16.5% 18.1% 11.1%
Final Four7.1% 7.8% 4.6%
Championship Game3.0% 3.3% 1.8%
National Champion1.2% 1.4% 0.6%

Next Game: Xavier (Home) - 77.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 6 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 31 - 3
Quad 1b3 - 35 - 6
Quad 28 - 113 - 7
Quad 38 - 020 - 7
Quad 45 - 026 - 7


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 220   Fordham W 92-60 97%     1 - 0 +26.0 +11.8 +12.3
  Nov 09, 2024 183   Quinnipiac W 96-73 96%     2 - 0 +19.3 +12.3 +4.3
  Nov 13, 2024 339   Wagner W 66-45 99%     3 - 0 +6.8 -3.8 +12.5
  Nov 17, 2024 51   New Mexico W 85-71 79%     4 - 0 +22.0 +18.3 +3.8
  Nov 21, 2024 22   Baylor L 98-99 2OT 55%     4 - 1 +14.2 +9.5 +4.9
  Nov 22, 2024 107   Virginia W 80-55 88%     5 - 1 +28.5 +21.1 +10.3
  Nov 24, 2024 34   Georgia L 63-66 64%     5 - 2 +9.8 +0.9 +8.8
  Nov 30, 2024 235   Harvard W 77-64 98%     6 - 2 +6.0 +2.3 +3.8
  Dec 07, 2024 89   Kansas St. W 88-71 88%     7 - 2 +20.7 +9.6 +9.7
  Dec 11, 2024 156   Bryant W 99-77 95%     8 - 2 +19.7 +15.0 +2.4
  Dec 17, 2024 106   DePaul W 89-61 92%     9 - 2 1 - 0 +28.8 +15.7 +13.3
  Dec 20, 2024 81   @ Providence W 72-70 74%     10 - 2 2 - 0 +11.9 +2.0 +9.8
  Dec 28, 2024 195   Delaware W 97-76 96%     11 - 2 +16.7 +13.8 +1.8
  Dec 31, 2024 33   @ Creighton L 56-57 53%     11 - 3 2 - 1 +14.7 -4.8 +19.4
  Jan 04, 2025 83   Butler W 70-62 88%     12 - 3 3 - 1 +12.0 -9.8 +21.0
  Jan 07, 2025 41   @ Xavier W 82-72 58%     13 - 3 4 - 1 +24.4 +10.9 +12.8
  Jan 11, 2025 44   Villanova W 80-68 78%     14 - 3 5 - 1 +20.6 +13.3 +8.1
  Jan 14, 2025 68   Georgetown W 63-58 85%     15 - 3 6 - 1 +10.4 -2.7 +13.3
  Jan 18, 2025 132   @ Seton Hall W 79-51 87%     16 - 3 7 - 1 +32.6 +9.3 +23.0
  Jan 22, 2025 41   Xavier W 77-69 77%    
  Jan 28, 2025 68   @ Georgetown W 72-66 69%    
  Feb 01, 2025 81   Providence W 77-65 87%    
  Feb 04, 2025 20   Marquette W 75-71 65%    
  Feb 07, 2025 24   @ Connecticut L 73-74 44%    
  Feb 12, 2025 44   @ Villanova W 73-70 58%    
  Feb 16, 2025 33   Creighton W 76-70 73%    
  Feb 19, 2025 106   @ DePaul W 79-69 83%    
  Feb 23, 2025 24   Connecticut W 75-71 66%    
  Feb 26, 2025 83   @ Butler W 77-70 74%    
  Mar 01, 2025 132   Seton Hall W 76-59 95%    
  Mar 08, 2025 20   @ Marquette L 72-74 43%    
Projected Record 24 - 7 15 - 5




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big East Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.1 1.6 9.1 17.4 16.5 7.9 2.1 54.6 1st
2nd 0.1 1.4 6.9 11.1 4.1 0.4 24.1 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.9 4.4 5.6 1.5 0.1 12.5 3rd
4th 0.0 0.4 2.2 2.5 1.0 0.0 6.1 4th
5th 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.0 0.2 2.1 5th
6th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.5 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.2 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.5 4.3 8.6 15.1 21.8 21.6 16.8 7.9 2.1 Total



Big East Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1 100.0% 2.1    2.1
18-2 100.0% 7.9    7.8 0.1
17-3 97.8% 16.5    14.5 2.0
16-4 80.5% 17.4    11.0 5.8 0.6
15-5 41.8% 9.1    3.0 4.2 1.7 0.2
14-6 10.6% 1.6    0.2 0.6 0.6 0.2
13-7 0.6% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 54.6% 54.6 38.6 12.7 2.9 0.4 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1 2.1% 100.0% 46.7% 53.3% 1.9 0.8 0.8 0.4 0.1 0.0 100.0%
18-2 7.9% 100.0% 43.8% 56.2% 2.8 1.0 2.3 2.3 1.6 0.5 0.1 0.0 100.0%
17-3 16.8% 100.0% 37.9% 62.1% 3.9 0.5 1.8 4.0 5.2 3.3 1.5 0.4 0.1 100.0%
16-4 21.6% 99.8% 31.2% 68.6% 5.2 0.0 0.5 2.0 4.4 6.2 4.9 2.7 0.7 0.2 0.0 99.7%
15-5 21.8% 98.7% 26.7% 72.0% 6.3 0.0 0.5 1.7 3.9 5.7 5.6 3.0 0.9 0.3 0.0 0.3 98.2%
14-6 15.1% 95.9% 20.3% 75.5% 7.4 0.0 0.2 0.9 2.1 4.2 3.7 2.4 0.7 0.2 0.6 94.8%
13-7 8.6% 90.3% 18.7% 71.6% 8.4 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.3 2.1 2.0 1.3 0.4 0.8 88.1%
12-8 4.3% 79.1% 14.1% 64.9% 9.2 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.9 1.0 0.4 0.0 0.9 75.6%
11-9 1.5% 58.3% 10.6% 47.7% 9.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.6 53.3%
10-10 0.3% 38.2% 2.9% 35.3% 10.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 36.4%
9-11 0.1% 0.1
8-12 0.0% 0.0
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 96.4% 28.8% 67.6% 5.7 2.4 5.4 9.1 13.2 15.0 14.9 14.6 10.3 6.5 3.7 1.3 0.0 3.6 95.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 1.0% 100.0% 1.4 60.2 36.7 3.1
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.4% 100.0% 2.0 31.0 38.1 26.2 4.8
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.4% 100.0% 2.3 20.9 39.5 27.9 11.6