IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Tennessee St.
Ohio Valley
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating	-8.0	#302
Expected Predictive Rating	-12.5	#340

Pace	76.2	#28
Improvement	+1.6	#106

Offense
Total Offense	-5.3	#314

First Shot	-5.6	#323
After Offensive Rebound	+0.3	#161

Layup/Dunks	+2.0	#107
2 Pt Jumpshots	+1.4	#89
3 Pt Jumpshots	-6.4	#346
Freethrows	-2.7	#324

Improvement	-0.6	#217

Defense
Total Defense	-2.6	#259

First Shot	-1.8	#234
After Offensive Rebounds	-0.8	#261

Layups/Dunks	-1.5	#237
2 Pt Jumpshots	+0.9	#112
3 Pt Jumpshots	+0.7	#167
Freethrows	-1.9	#303

Improvement	+2.2	#66

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
#1 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 2 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 4 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 6 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid	5.2%	7.3%	2.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Average Seed	16.0	16.0	16.0

.500 or above	7.0%	11.0%	2.7%
.500 or above in Conference	47.2%	60.7%	32.3%
Conference Champion	2.3%	3.8%	0.6%
Last Place in Conference	6.1%	3.2%	9.2%

First Four	4.5%	6.2%	2.7%
First Round	2.7%	4.0%	1.3%
Second Round	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Sweet Sixteen	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Elite Eight	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Final Four	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Championship Game	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
National Champion	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Next Game: SIU Edwardsville (Home) - 52.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Not in Tournament

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	0 - 0	0 - 0
Quad 1b	0 - 0	0 - 0
Quad 2	0 - 2	0 - 2
Quad 3	0 - 4	0 - 6
Quad 4	11 - 12	11 - 18

Date	Opponent		Result/Prediction			Record	Conf		Rating	Offense	Defense
Nov 08, 2024	79	@ Colorado St.	L	79-87 OT	6%	0 - 1			+2.0	+1.4	+1.7
Nov 10, 2024	157	@ Wyoming	L	66-81	15%	0 - 2			-11.8	-4.7	-6.9
Nov 13, 2024	282	Howard	L	84-88 OT	45%	0 - 3			-10.6	-0.7	-9.7
Nov 16, 2024	357	Alabama A&M	W	81-71	82%	1 - 3			-7.5	-9.8	+0.9
Nov 25, 2024	169	@ Chattanooga	L	78-85	16%	1 - 4			-4.4	-3.9	+0.1
Nov 26, 2024	184	Bryant	L	85-97	25%	1 - 5			-13.1	-0.4	-11.0
Dec 01, 2024	177	UNC Asheville	L	74-92	34%	1 - 6			-21.7	-7.7	-13.4
Dec 10, 2024	128	@ Western Kentucky	L	60-84	11%	1 - 7			-18.8	-11.8	-5.3
Dec 19, 2024	331	@ Southern Indiana	L	75-77	49%	1 - 8	0 - 1		-9.6	-5.9	-3.6
Dec 21, 2024	265	@ Morehead St.	L	68-74	31%	1 - 9	0 - 2		-8.8	-0.4	-8.8
Jan 02, 2025	279	Southeast Missouri St.	L	65-67	56%	1 - 10	0 - 3		-11.5	-13.2	+1.8
Jan 04, 2025	250	Arkansas Little Rock	W	95-86	50%	2 - 10	1 - 3		+1.0	+7.8	-8.1
Jan 09, 2025	335	@ Lindenwood	L	62-72	50%	2 - 11	1 - 4		-17.9	-15.4	-2.0
Jan 11, 2025	338	@ Western Illinois	W	72-52	51%	3 - 11	2 - 4		+11.9	+2.7	+11.6
Jan 16, 2025	269	SIU Edwardsville	W	71-70	52%
Jan 18, 2025	339	Eastern Illinois	W	74-68	73%
Jan 21, 2025	291	Tennessee Martin	W	74-72	59%
Jan 23, 2025	307	Tennessee Tech	W	76-73	62%
Jan 30, 2025	250	@ Arkansas Little Rock	L	68-74	29%
Feb 01, 2025	279	@ Southeast Missouri St.	L	72-76	35%
Feb 06, 2025	338	Western Illinois	W	74-68	73%
Feb 08, 2025	335	Lindenwood	W	76-70	71%
Feb 13, 2025	339	@ Eastern Illinois	W	72-71	51%
Feb 15, 2025	269	@ SIU Edwardsville	L	68-73	32%
Feb 18, 2025	291	@ Tennessee Martin	L	71-75	37%
Feb 22, 2025	307	@ Tennessee Tech	L	73-76	39%
Feb 27, 2025	265	Morehead St.	W	71-70	53%
Mar 01, 2025	331	Southern Indiana	W	76-71	70%
Projected Record						10 - 18	9 - 11

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected Ohio Valley Finish

	0-20	1-19	2-18	3-17	4-16	5-15	6-14	7-13	8-12	9-11	10-10	11-9	12-8	13-7	14-6	15-5	16-4	17-3	18-2	19-1	20-0		Total
1st													0.3	0.7	0.7	0.5	0.1						2.3	1st
2nd												0.2	1.6	2.3	1.1	0.1							5.3	2nd
3rd											0.1	2.0	4.0	1.6	0.1								7.7	3rd
4th										0.0	1.4	5.3	2.9	0.2									9.9	4th
5th									0.0	0.9	5.9	4.7	0.6										12.1	5th
6th								0.0	0.8	5.5	6.7	1.4	0.1										14.6	6th
7th							0.0	0.7	5.0	7.7	2.4	0.1											15.9	7th
8th						0.0	0.4	3.3	6.4	2.8	0.1												13.0	8th
9th					0.0	0.3	2.2	4.7	3.0	0.1													10.4	9th
10th					0.2	1.4	2.5	1.7	0.2														6.1	10th
11th			0.0	0.1	0.7	1.1	0.8	0.1															2.8	11th

Total			0.0	0.1	0.9	2.8	6.0	10.6	15.5	17.0	16.7	13.6	9.4	4.8	1.9	0.7	0.1							Total

Ohio Valley Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total		Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way	7-Way	8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4	100.0%	0.1		0.1
15-5	78.9%	0.5		0.4	0.1	0.1
14-6	37.1%	0.7		0.3	0.2	0.2
13-7	15.1%	0.7		0.1	0.3	0.3	0.1	0.0
12-8	2.8%	0.3				0.1	0.1	0.1
11-9	0.0%
10-10	0.0%

Total	2.3%	2.3		0.9	0.6	0.6	0.1	0.1

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance		Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid		At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4	0.1%		23.9%	23.9%		14.0															0.0			0.1
15-5	0.7%		31.5%	31.5%		15.4															0.0	0.1	0.1	0.5
14-6	1.9%		28.5%	28.5%		16.0																0.0	0.5	1.4
13-7	4.8%		21.1%	21.1%		16.0																	1.0	3.8
12-8	9.4%		14.4%	14.4%		16.0																0.0	1.3	8.0
11-9	13.6%		6.4%	6.4%		16.0																	0.9	12.7
10-10	16.7%		4.1%	4.1%		16.0																	0.7	16.0
9-11	17.0%		2.2%	2.2%		16.0																	0.4	16.7
8-12	15.5%		0.7%	0.7%		16.0																	0.1	15.4
7-13	10.6%																							10.6
6-14	6.0%																							6.0
5-15	2.8%																							2.8
4-16	0.9%																							0.9
3-17	0.1%																							0.1
2-18	0.0%																							0.0
1-19
0-20

Total	100%		5.2%	5.2%	0.0%	16.0															0.0	0.1	5.1	94.8		0.0%

Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

	Chance	Tourney Bid	Avg Seed	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship	0.0%