Tennessee St.
Ohio Valley
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-7.4#298
Expected Predictive Rating-11.6#319
Pace71.9#106
Improvement-0.3#211

Offense
Total Offense-4.1#289
First Shot-6.5#336
After Offensive Rebound+2.4#56
Layup/Dunks+1.9#109
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.9#74
3 Pt Jumpshots-8.6#357
Freethrows-1.7#270
Improvement-0.2#203

Defense
Total Defense-3.3#284
First Shot-5.4#327
After Offensive Rebounds+2.1#50
Layups/Dunks-3.6#300
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.6#287
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.7#112
Freethrows-1.9#284
Improvement-0.1#208
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 8.2% 12.4% 7.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.8 15.7 15.9
.500 or above 34.8% 55.5% 30.3%
.500 or above in Conference 60.3% 71.8% 57.8%
Conference Champion 9.2% 14.4% 8.0%
Last Place in Conference 6.6% 3.4% 7.3%
First Four5.4% 6.6% 5.1%
First Round5.7% 9.3% 4.9%
Second Round0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Chattanooga (Away) - 17.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 0
Quad 20 - 20 - 2
Quad 31 - 51 - 7
Quad 412 - 1013 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 08, 2024 107   @ Colorado St. L 79-87 OT 10%     0 - 1 -1.1 -0.9 +0.9
  Nov 10, 2024 200   @ Wyoming L 66-81 21%     0 - 2 -13.9 -6.4 -7.3
  Nov 13, 2024 230   Howard L 84-88 OT 35%     0 - 3 -7.4 +4.0 -11.2
  Nov 16, 2024 355   Alabama A&M W 81-71 81%     1 - 3 -6.6 -9.3 +1.3
  Nov 25, 2024 169   @ Chattanooga L 69-79 18%    
  Nov 26, 2024 173   Bryant L 76-83 26%    
  Dec 01, 2024 174   UNC Asheville L 73-77 37%    
  Dec 10, 2024 119   @ Western Kentucky L 72-85 11%    
  Dec 19, 2024 307   @ Southern Indiana L 72-74 41%    
  Dec 21, 2024 265   @ Morehead St. L 65-70 33%    
  Jan 02, 2025 312   Southeast Missouri St. W 75-71 64%    
  Jan 04, 2025 199   Arkansas Little Rock L 72-75 41%    
  Jan 09, 2025 354   @ Lindenwood W 74-71 61%    
  Jan 11, 2025 329   @ Western Illinois L 68-69 46%    
  Jan 16, 2025 272   SIU Edwardsville W 71-70 55%    
  Jan 18, 2025 317   Eastern Illinois W 73-69 64%    
  Jan 21, 2025 309   Tennessee Martin W 78-74 64%    
  Jan 23, 2025 334   Tennessee Tech W 73-67 71%    
  Jan 30, 2025 199   @ Arkansas Little Rock L 69-78 22%    
  Feb 01, 2025 312   @ Southeast Missouri St. L 72-74 43%    
  Feb 06, 2025 329   Western Illinois W 71-66 67%    
  Feb 08, 2025 354   Lindenwood W 77-68 78%    
  Feb 13, 2025 317   @ Eastern Illinois L 70-72 43%    
  Feb 15, 2025 272   @ SIU Edwardsville L 68-73 34%    
  Feb 18, 2025 309   @ Tennessee Martin L 75-77 43%    
  Feb 22, 2025 334   @ Tennessee Tech W 71-70 50%    
  Feb 27, 2025 265   Morehead St. W 68-67 54%    
  Mar 01, 2025 307   Southern Indiana W 75-71 62%    
Projected Record 12 - 16 10 - 10




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Ohio Valley Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.5 1.5 2.5 2.3 1.5 0.7 0.3 0.1 9.2 1st
2nd 0.1 1.1 3.3 3.7 2.5 0.9 0.2 0.0 11.7 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.4 4.1 3.9 1.6 0.3 0.0 11.4 3rd
4th 0.1 1.3 4.6 4.2 1.3 0.1 0.0 11.6 4th
5th 0.0 1.1 4.1 4.2 1.2 0.1 10.7 5th
6th 0.0 0.9 3.8 4.4 1.1 0.1 10.3 6th
7th 0.0 0.8 3.2 4.2 1.3 0.1 9.5 7th
8th 0.1 0.7 2.8 3.7 1.3 0.1 8.6 8th
9th 0.1 0.6 2.3 2.9 1.3 0.1 7.4 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.8 1.8 2.2 1.0 0.1 0.0 6.0 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.1 0.9 0.4 0.1 3.7 11th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.0 2.0 3.4 5.6 7.5 9.2 10.5 11.3 11.4 10.7 9.1 6.9 5.2 3.1 1.7 0.7 0.3 0.1 Total



Ohio Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
19-1 100.0% 0.3    0.3
18-2 99.1% 0.7    0.6 0.0
17-3 89.0% 1.5    1.3 0.2 0.0
16-4 71.9% 2.3    1.5 0.7 0.0 0.0
15-5 47.0% 2.5    1.2 1.0 0.2 0.0
14-6 21.5% 1.5    0.5 0.7 0.3 0.0
13-7 5.3% 0.5    0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0
12-8 0.5% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 9.2% 9.2 5.5 2.8 0.7 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.1% 50.0% 50.0% 12.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
19-1 0.3% 55.1% 55.1% 14.4 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1
18-2 0.7% 43.2% 43.2% 15.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.4
17-3 1.7% 36.5% 36.5% 15.4 0.1 0.2 0.3 1.0
16-4 3.1% 31.5% 31.5% 15.6 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.7 2.1
15-5 5.2% 28.0% 28.0% 15.9 0.1 1.3 3.8
14-6 6.9% 19.9% 19.9% 16.0 0.1 1.3 5.5
13-7 9.1% 13.4% 13.4% 16.0 0.0 1.2 7.9
12-8 10.7% 8.5% 8.5% 16.0 0.0 0.9 9.8
11-9 11.4% 4.5% 4.5% 16.0 0.5 10.9
10-10 11.3% 3.1% 3.1% 16.0 0.4 10.9
9-11 10.5% 1.7% 1.7% 16.0 0.2 10.4
8-12 9.2% 1.2% 1.2% 16.0 0.1 9.1
7-13 7.5% 7.5
6-14 5.6% 5.6
5-15 3.4% 3.4
4-16 2.0% 2.0
3-17 1.0% 1.0
2-18 0.4% 0.4
1-19 0.1% 0.1
0-20 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 8.2% 8.2% 0.0% 15.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.9 7.0 91.8 0.0%