UNC Asheville
Big South
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-0.8#176
Expected Predictive Rating+2.4#153
Pace69.2#176
Improvement+4.9#1

Offense
Total Offense+1.3#136
First Shot-3.8#282
After Offensive Rebound+5.0#12
Layup/Dunks-5.7#332
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.1#76
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.0#141
Freethrows-1.1#246
Improvement+2.8#3

Defense
Total Defense-2.1#240
First Shot-4.9#317
After Offensive Rebounds+2.8#34
Layups/Dunks+0.0#169
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.6#241
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.9#249
Freethrows-2.4#303
Improvement+2.2#8
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 15.7% 16.9% 11.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.1 14.0 14.6
.500 or above 66.7% 72.3% 47.4%
.500 or above in Conference 74.9% 77.6% 65.5%
Conference Champion 19.7% 21.4% 13.7%
Last Place in Conference 3.9% 3.2% 6.4%
First Four1.1% 0.9% 1.7%
First Round15.3% 16.5% 11.1%
Second Round1.1% 1.3% 0.6%
Sweet Sixteen0.2% 0.3% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Southeast Missouri St. (Neutral) - 77.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 1
Quad 21 - 21 - 3
Quad 34 - 55 - 8
Quad 411 - 416 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 7   @ Alabama L 54-110 3%     0 - 1 -35.2 -14.6 -17.5
  Nov 09, 2024 158   @ Ohio L 76-82 35%     0 - 2 -2.8 -1.2 -1.4
  Nov 18, 2024 177   @ North Florida W 89-75 39%     1 - 2 +16.2 +16.8 -0.1
  Nov 22, 2024 320   Southeast Missouri St. W 80-72 78%    
  Nov 24, 2024 340   @ Central Arkansas W 79-71 77%    
  Dec 01, 2024 296   @ Tennessee St. W 76-73 62%    
  Dec 03, 2024 92   @ George Mason L 67-76 19%    
  Dec 14, 2024 258   Western Carolina W 75-68 74%    
  Dec 17, 2024 177   North Florida W 80-77 61%    
  Dec 21, 2024 150   @ UNC Wilmington L 73-77 35%    
  Jan 04, 2025 125   High Point L 77-78 49%    
  Jan 08, 2025 179   @ Longwood L 69-72 39%    
  Jan 11, 2025 279   @ Presbyterian W 75-73 58%    
  Jan 15, 2025 313   South Carolina Upstate W 83-72 82%    
  Jan 18, 2025 195   Winthrop W 78-74 63%    
  Jan 22, 2025 219   @ Gardner-Webb L 75-76 46%    
  Jan 25, 2025 310   @ Charleston Southern W 76-71 65%    
  Jan 29, 2025 226   Radford W 76-71 68%    
  Feb 05, 2025 219   Gardner-Webb W 78-73 66%    
  Feb 08, 2025 125   @ High Point L 74-80 29%    
  Feb 12, 2025 313   @ South Carolina Upstate W 80-75 65%    
  Feb 15, 2025 310   Charleston Southern W 79-68 82%    
  Feb 19, 2025 226   @ Radford L 73-74 48%    
  Feb 22, 2025 179   Longwood W 72-69 60%    
  Feb 26, 2025 279   Presbyterian W 78-70 76%    
  Mar 01, 2025 195   @ Winthrop L 75-77 42%    
Projected Record 14 - 12 9 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big South Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.4 2.4 5.2 5.9 3.8 1.6 0.4 19.7 1st
2nd 0.0 0.8 4.5 7.0 4.7 1.3 0.2 18.5 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.8 4.9 6.6 3.1 0.4 0.0 15.8 3rd
4th 0.0 0.7 4.4 6.1 2.0 0.2 13.5 4th
5th 0.0 0.6 3.9 5.0 1.6 0.1 11.3 5th
6th 0.0 0.6 3.0 4.0 1.2 0.1 8.9 6th
7th 0.0 0.5 2.1 2.8 0.9 0.0 6.4 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.4 1.5 0.6 0.0 3.9 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.7 0.6 0.2 0.0 2.0 9th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.2 2.5 4.3 7.1 9.5 11.6 13.5 13.7 12.7 10.3 7.3 4.0 1.6 0.4 Total



Big South Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0 100.0% 0.4    0.4
15-1 100.0% 1.6    1.5 0.0
14-2 95.8% 3.8    3.4 0.4
13-3 81.4% 5.9    4.3 1.6 0.1 0.0
12-4 50.3% 5.2    2.5 2.1 0.5 0.0
11-5 18.9% 2.4    0.5 1.1 0.7 0.1 0.0
10-6 3.2% 0.4    0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
9-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
8-8 0.0%
Total 19.7% 19.7 12.6 5.4 1.5 0.3 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0 0.4% 55.6% 55.6% 11.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2
15-1 1.6% 50.5% 50.5% 12.4 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.8
14-2 4.0% 42.8% 42.8% 13.0 0.0 0.4 0.8 0.4 0.0 2.3
13-3 7.3% 32.9% 32.9% 13.3 0.0 0.3 1.0 0.8 0.2 0.0 4.9
12-4 10.3% 26.9% 26.9% 13.9 0.1 0.8 1.2 0.6 0.0 7.5
11-5 12.7% 20.3% 20.3% 14.3 0.0 0.4 1.0 1.0 0.2 10.1
10-6 13.7% 14.6% 14.6% 14.8 0.0 0.1 0.6 0.9 0.4 11.7
9-7 13.5% 11.0% 11.0% 15.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 0.4 12.0
8-8 11.6% 7.8% 7.8% 15.4 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.4 10.7
7-9 9.5% 5.2% 5.2% 15.8 0.0 0.1 0.4 9.0
6-10 7.1% 3.6% 3.6% 16.0 0.0 0.3 6.8
5-11 4.3% 2.0% 2.0% 16.0 0.1 4.2
4-12 2.5% 1.4% 1.4% 16.0 0.0 2.4
3-13 1.2% 1.2
2-14 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.0 0.5
1-15 0.1% 2.3% 2.3% 16.0 0.0 0.1
0-16 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 15.7% 15.7% 0.0% 14.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 1.4 3.5 4.4 3.9 2.3 84.3 0.0%