UNC Asheville
Big South
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-1.2#188
Expected Predictive Rating+0.8#156
Pace69.2#165
Improvement+1.9#94

Offense
Total Offense+4.2#69
First Shot+1.5#130
After Offensive Rebound+2.7#32
Layup/Dunks-0.2#194
2 Pt Jumpshots+4.4#16
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.1#244
Freethrows-0.5#216
Improvement+4.6#11

Defense
Total Defense-5.4#333
First Shot-3.1#272
After Offensive Rebounds-2.3#335
Layups/Dunks-2.2#268
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.3#294
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.3#83
Freethrows-2.0#313
Improvement-2.7#314
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 14.3% 16.4% 12.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.8 14.6 15.0
.500 or above 90.5% 96.5% 84.4%
.500 or above in Conference 94.5% 98.5% 90.4%
Conference Champion 30.5% 41.3% 19.6%
Last Place in Conference 0.1% 0.0% 0.2%
First Four0.7% 0.4% 1.0%
First Round14.0% 16.2% 11.8%
Second Round0.5% 0.4% 0.5%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Gardner-Webb (Away) - 50.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 1
Quad 20 - 20 - 4
Quad 33 - 44 - 8
Quad 413 - 317 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 7   @ Alabama L 54-110 3%     0 - 1 -33.8 -14.0 -16.7
  Nov 09, 2024 146   @ Ohio L 76-82 31%     0 - 2 -2.1 +1.3 -3.2
  Nov 18, 2024 246   @ North Florida W 89-75 53%     1 - 2 +12.1 +13.2 -0.5
  Nov 22, 2024 271   Southeast Missouri St. W 72-64 68%     2 - 2 +1.8 -1.0 +3.0
  Nov 24, 2024 338   @ Central Arkansas L 83-92 2OT 76%     2 - 3 -17.7 -5.6 -10.7
  Dec 01, 2024 301   @ Tennessee St. W 92-74 65%     3 - 3 +12.9 +14.8 -2.5
  Dec 03, 2024 86   @ George Mason L 52-74 16%     3 - 4 -12.6 -9.3 -4.8
  Dec 14, 2024 341   Western Carolina W 78-61 89%     4 - 4 +2.7 -1.2 +3.5
  Dec 17, 2024 246   North Florida W 95-81 72%     5 - 4 +6.6 +8.4 -2.5
  Dec 21, 2024 135   @ UNC Wilmington L 74-85 29%     5 - 5 -6.5 +9.1 -16.6
  Jan 04, 2025 105   High Point W 103-99 42%     6 - 5 1 - 0 +4.9 +15.7 -11.2
  Jan 08, 2025 197   @ Longwood L 76-85 41%     6 - 6 1 - 1 -7.9 +4.2 -12.2
  Jan 11, 2025 275   @ Presbyterian W 96-87 59%     7 - 6 2 - 1 +5.4 +23.1 -17.5
  Jan 15, 2025 337   South Carolina Upstate W 93-92 88%     8 - 6 3 - 1 -13.2 +3.1 -16.4
  Jan 18, 2025 198   Winthrop W 93-84 62%     9 - 6 4 - 1 +4.6 +10.6 -6.5
  Jan 22, 2025 241   @ Gardner-Webb W 80-79 50%    
  Jan 25, 2025 279   @ Charleston Southern W 78-75 59%    
  Jan 29, 2025 205   Radford W 76-72 64%    
  Feb 05, 2025 241   Gardner-Webb W 83-77 72%    
  Feb 08, 2025 105   @ High Point L 78-86 23%    
  Feb 12, 2025 337   @ South Carolina Upstate W 86-78 75%    
  Feb 15, 2025 279   Charleston Southern W 81-73 79%    
  Feb 19, 2025 205   @ Radford L 73-75 42%    
  Feb 22, 2025 197   Longwood W 80-77 62%    
  Feb 26, 2025 275   Presbyterian W 79-71 77%    
  Mar 01, 2025 198   @ Winthrop L 83-85 41%    
Projected Record 15 - 11 10 - 6




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big South Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.9 6.5 11.1 8.2 3.1 0.7 30.5 1st
2nd 0.0 1.2 9.4 12.6 5.2 0.6 28.9 2nd
3rd 0.4 6.3 9.0 2.1 0.1 18.0 3rd
4th 0.1 2.8 6.1 1.4 0.0 10.5 4th
5th 0.0 0.9 3.8 1.5 0.0 6.3 5th
6th 0.3 2.0 1.3 0.1 3.6 6th
7th 0.1 0.8 0.9 0.0 1.8 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.4 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.0 9th
Total 0.0 0.3 1.3 3.9 8.4 15.3 20.7 21.2 16.4 8.7 3.1 0.7 Total



Big South Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0
15-1 100.0% 0.7    0.7
14-2 100.0% 3.1    3.0 0.2
13-3 93.5% 8.2    6.5 1.6 0.0
12-4 68.0% 11.1    5.5 5.1 0.6 0.0
11-5 30.7% 6.5    1.6 3.1 1.6 0.2 0.0
10-6 4.2% 0.9    0.0 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.1
9-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0
8-8 0.0%
Total 30.5% 30.5 17.2 10.0 2.6 0.5 0.1



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0
15-1 0.7% 33.8% 33.8% 12.4 0.1 0.1 0.5
14-2 3.1% 31.2% 31.2% 13.6 0.0 0.4 0.4 0.1 2.1
13-3 8.7% 26.5% 26.5% 14.1 0.4 1.3 0.6 0.0 6.4
12-4 16.4% 20.5% 20.5% 14.7 0.1 1.1 2.0 0.2 13.0
11-5 21.2% 15.1% 15.1% 15.0 0.0 0.6 2.1 0.5 18.0
10-6 20.7% 10.0% 10.0% 15.3 0.0 0.2 1.2 0.7 18.7
9-7 15.3% 9.0% 9.0% 15.5 0.0 0.6 0.7 13.9
8-8 8.4% 6.8% 6.8% 15.6 0.2 0.4 7.8
7-9 3.9% 5.7% 5.7% 16.0 0.0 0.2 3.7
6-10 1.3% 1.5% 1.5% 16.0 0.0 1.3
5-11 0.3% 0.3
4-12 0.0% 0.0
3-13
2-14
1-15
0-16
Total 100% 14.3% 14.3% 0.0% 14.8 0.2 1.0 3.6 6.9 2.7 85.7 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.2% 100.0% 12.4 56.5 43.5