UNC Greensboro
Southern
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-0.6#171
Expected Predictive Rating+2.8#143
Pace63.8#323
Improvement-0.4#224

Offense
Total Offense-0.3#183
First Shot+0.1#178
After Offensive Rebound-0.3#200
Layup/Dunks-1.2#225
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.6#212
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.6#91
Freethrows-0.8#222
Improvement-0.9#311

Defense
Total Defense-0.3#181
First Shot-1.3#225
After Offensive Rebounds+1.0#121
Layups/Dunks+5.8#35
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.0#330
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.1#256
Freethrows-2.0#288
Improvement+0.5#105
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.3% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.3% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 13.3% 21.6% 12.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.8 12.8 13.9
.500 or above 64.3% 87.2% 63.1%
.500 or above in Conference 74.9% 87.1% 74.3%
Conference Champion 15.6% 29.4% 14.9%
Last Place in Conference 2.1% 0.7% 2.2%
First Four0.7% 0.2% 0.7%
First Round13.0% 21.5% 12.6%
Second Round1.2% 3.4% 1.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.2% 0.8% 0.2%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.2% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Indiana (Away) - 5.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 20 - 4
Quad 34 - 65 - 9
Quad 412 - 416 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 218   Florida Gulf Coast W 73-64 69%     1 - 0 +3.3 +4.1 -0.1
  Nov 11, 2024 66   @ SMU L 68-81 13%     1 - 1 -1.6 -3.6 +2.6
  Nov 21, 2024 22   @ Indiana L 62-79 5%    
  Nov 25, 2024 263   Long Beach St. W 69-64 67%    
  Nov 26, 2024 250   San Jose St. W 69-65 65%    
  Nov 27, 2024 174   UTEP W 70-69 50%    
  Dec 03, 2024 125   High Point L 72-73 49%    
  Dec 07, 2024 285   @ N.C. A&T W 75-72 60%    
  Dec 14, 2024 177   @ North Florida L 72-75 40%    
  Dec 21, 2024 207   @ Elon L 69-70 45%    
  Jan 01, 2025 206   @ Wofford L 67-68 45%    
  Jan 04, 2025 133   Furman W 71-70 52%    
  Jan 09, 2025 169   @ Chattanooga L 68-71 39%    
  Jan 11, 2025 127   @ Samford L 74-80 30%    
  Jan 15, 2025 317   The Citadel W 71-60 83%    
  Jan 18, 2025 258   @ Western Carolina W 67-66 55%    
  Jan 22, 2025 252   Mercer W 73-66 73%    
  Jan 25, 2025 344   @ VMI W 77-68 78%    
  Jan 29, 2025 188   East Tennessee St. W 72-68 63%    
  Feb 01, 2025 206   Wofford W 70-65 65%    
  Feb 05, 2025 317   @ The Citadel W 68-63 67%    
  Feb 08, 2025 258   Western Carolina W 70-63 73%    
  Feb 12, 2025 344   VMI W 80-65 90%    
  Feb 15, 2025 133   @ Furman L 68-73 32%    
  Feb 19, 2025 188   @ East Tennessee St. L 69-71 42%    
  Feb 22, 2025 252   @ Mercer W 70-69 53%    
  Feb 27, 2025 169   Chattanooga W 71-68 60%    
  Mar 01, 2025 127   Samford W 77-76 51%    
Projected Record 15 - 13 11 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.6 2.4 4.2 4.3 2.7 1.1 0.3 15.6 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 1.2 4.4 5.6 3.2 0.8 0.1 15.4 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 1.5 5.1 5.5 2.1 0.3 0.0 14.6 3rd
4th 0.1 1.7 5.3 5.0 1.4 0.1 13.6 4th
5th 0.2 1.5 5.0 4.6 1.1 0.0 12.5 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 1.6 4.0 3.6 0.9 0.0 10.2 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 1.5 3.3 2.6 0.6 0.0 8.2 7th
8th 0.0 0.3 1.4 2.2 1.5 0.3 0.0 5.8 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.9 1.1 0.6 0.1 3.1 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 1.1 10th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.7 1.5 2.9 4.6 6.6 8.5 11.0 12.4 12.5 11.9 10.2 7.7 5.1 2.7 1.1 0.3 Total



Southern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.3    0.3
17-1 100.0% 1.1    1.1 0.0
16-2 97.0% 2.7    2.4 0.3
15-3 83.7% 4.3    3.2 1.1 0.1
14-4 54.7% 4.2    2.1 1.7 0.3 0.0
13-5 23.9% 2.4    0.7 1.1 0.5 0.1
12-6 5.1% 0.6    0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0
11-7 0.4% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0% 0.0    0.0
9-9 0.0%
Total 15.6% 15.6 9.8 4.4 1.2 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.3% 65.3% 65.3% 10.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1
17-1 1.1% 53.0% 52.8% 0.2% 12.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.5 0.5%
16-2 2.7% 39.6% 39.6% 12.5 0.1 0.5 0.4 0.1 0.0 1.7
15-3 5.1% 32.5% 32.5% 13.0 0.0 0.4 0.8 0.4 0.0 3.4
14-4 7.7% 27.4% 27.4% 13.4 0.0 0.3 0.9 0.8 0.2 0.0 5.6
13-5 10.2% 22.0% 22.0% 13.9 0.1 0.6 1.0 0.5 0.0 8.0
12-6 11.9% 16.3% 16.3% 14.3 0.0 0.3 0.8 0.7 0.1 10.0
11-7 12.5% 11.0% 11.0% 14.6 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.6 0.2 11.1
10-8 12.4% 7.9% 7.9% 15.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.2 11.4
9-9 11.0% 6.2% 6.2% 15.4 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 10.3
8-10 8.5% 3.3% 3.3% 15.7 0.0 0.1 0.2 8.2
7-11 6.6% 1.9% 1.9% 15.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 6.5
6-12 4.6% 1.0% 1.0% 15.9 0.0 0.0 4.6
5-13 2.9% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.0 2.8
4-14 1.5% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.0 1.5
3-15 0.7% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.0 0.7
2-16 0.2% 1.0% 1.0% 16.0 0.0 0.2
1-17 0.1% 0.1
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 13.3% 13.3% 0.0% 13.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 1.8 3.4 3.7 2.9 1.3 86.7 0.0%