Weber St.
Big Sky
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-7.6#297
Expected Predictive Rating-9.3#313
Pace64.8#272
Improvement-3.9#323

Offense
Total Offense-2.7#247
First Shot-3.3#274
After Offensive Rebound+0.5#149
Layup/Dunks-0.8#214
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.1#173
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.9#236
Freethrows-0.5#208
Improvement-2.9#310

Defense
Total Defense-4.9#317
First Shot-2.8#263
After Offensive Rebounds-2.0#327
Layups/Dunks-2.5#280
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.6#14
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.8#231
Freethrows-2.1#318
Improvement-0.9#239
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 1.5% 1.9% 1.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 50.6% 29.7% 65.3%
First Four1.5% 1.9% 1.2%
First Round0.8% 1.0% 0.7%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Portland St. (Home) - 41.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 30 - 3
Quad 20 - 10 - 4
Quad 32 - 92 - 14
Quad 47 - 98 - 23


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 08, 2024 87   @ Oregon St. L 48-76 7%     0 - 1 -19.1 -19.0 -2.5
  Nov 13, 2024 80   @ Nevada L 58-88 6%     0 - 2 -20.3 -5.0 -17.9
  Nov 17, 2024 207   @ Hawaii L 68-73 OT 23%     0 - 3 -5.0 -4.1 -0.8
  Nov 22, 2024 85   UC Irvine L 87-93 14%     0 - 4 -1.8 +14.0 -15.4
  Nov 29, 2024 301   Bowling Green W 73-70 51%     1 - 4 -4.8 -2.8 -2.0
  Nov 30, 2024 226   Pepperdine W 68-53 35%     2 - 4 +11.5 -6.1 +17.7
  Dec 04, 2024 136   North Dakota St. L 73-77 27%     2 - 5 -5.2 +4.5 -10.2
  Dec 07, 2024 278   @ North Dakota L 75-80 36%     2 - 6 -8.9 +0.5 -9.8
  Dec 13, 2024 290   @ Utah Tech W 73-71 38%     3 - 6 -2.5 +7.1 -9.3
  Dec 21, 2024 125   Utah Valley L 62-64 25%     3 - 7 -2.5 +2.8 -5.7
  Dec 29, 2024 39   @ Oregon L 49-89 3%     3 - 8 -25.3 -17.4 -7.9
  Jan 02, 2025 151   @ Northern Colorado L 72-89 16%     3 - 9 0 - 1 -13.8 -1.1 -12.9
  Jan 04, 2025 264   @ Northern Arizona L 77-80 33%     3 - 10 0 - 2 -5.9 +7.6 -13.8
  Jan 11, 2025 229   @ Idaho St. W 77-69 27%     4 - 10 1 - 2 +6.9 +8.1 -0.7
  Jan 16, 2025 182   Montana L 59-63 35%     4 - 11 1 - 3 -7.7 -8.3 +0.0
  Jan 18, 2025 188   Montana St. L 71-80 37%     4 - 12 1 - 4 -13.1 -0.5 -13.0
  Jan 23, 2025 201   @ Portland St. L 56-74 22%     4 - 13 1 - 5 -17.6 -9.8 -9.3
  Jan 25, 2025 332   @ Sacramento St. W 87-81 52%     5 - 13 2 - 5 -2.2 +15.8 -17.7
  Jan 30, 2025 253   Idaho L 74-82 51%     5 - 14 2 - 6 -15.7 -2.1 -14.1
  Feb 01, 2025 265   Eastern Washington L 49-72 52%     5 - 15 2 - 7 -31.0 -29.9 -0.4
  Feb 03, 2025 264   Northern Arizona W 77-73 52%     6 - 15 3 - 7 -4.0 -2.5 -1.6
  Feb 08, 2025 229   Idaho St. L 67-72 44%     6 - 16 3 - 8 -11.2 -5.4 -6.1
  Feb 13, 2025 188   @ Montana St. L 66-74 21%     6 - 17 3 - 9 -7.0 -4.6 -2.6
  Feb 15, 2025 182   @ Montana L 58-65 20%     6 - 18 3 - 10 -5.6 -7.5 +0.8
  Feb 20, 2025 332   Sacramento St. L 77-80 71%     6 - 19 3 - 11 -16.3 +7.6 -24.3
  Feb 22, 2025 201   Portland St. L 69-72 41%    
  Feb 27, 2025 265   @ Eastern Washington L 70-75 31%    
  Mar 01, 2025 253   @ Idaho L 71-76 31%    
  Mar 03, 2025 151   Northern Colorado L 73-79 31%    
Projected Record 7 - 22 4 - 14




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Sky Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 0.2 0.2 6th
7th 0.7 0.7 7th
8th 3.9 0.8 4.7 8th
9th 8.6 29.6 27.6 7.0 0.1 72.8 9th
10th 12.6 8.1 1.0 0.0 21.6 10th
Total 21.2 37.6 28.6 10.9 1.8 Total



Big Sky Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9
8-10
7-11 1.8% 1.7% 1.7% 16.0 0.0 1.7
6-12 10.9% 2.1% 2.1% 16.0 0.2 10.6
5-13 28.6% 1.8% 1.8% 16.0 0.5 28.1
4-14 37.6% 1.5% 1.5% 16.0 0.6 37.1
3-15 21.2% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.2 21.0
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 1.5% 1.5% 0.0% 16.0 1.5 98.5 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 8.9%