Western Carolina
Southern
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-5.0#258
Expected Predictive Rating-13.8#332
Pace67.7#230
Improvement+1.6#45

Offense
Total Offense-4.4#302
First Shot-7.6#351
After Offensive Rebound+3.2#41
Layup/Dunks+0.8#148
2 Pt Jumpshots-4.1#352
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.2#252
Freethrows-2.1#286
Improvement+1.9#13

Defense
Total Defense-0.5#190
First Shot+4.3#61
After Offensive Rebounds-4.9#354
Layups/Dunks+7.5#14
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.2#53
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.5#300
Freethrows-1.8#273
Improvement-0.3#231
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 3.9% 8.1% 3.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.1 14.4 15.2
.500 or above 17.9% 41.6% 15.9%
.500 or above in Conference 40.5% 59.4% 39.0%
Conference Champion 3.7% 8.4% 3.3%
Last Place in Conference 10.0% 3.9% 10.5%
First Four1.3% 1.2% 1.3%
First Round3.3% 7.7% 3.0%
Second Round0.1% 0.4% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Florida St. (Away) - 7.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 3
Quad 20 - 20 - 6
Quad 32 - 62 - 11
Quad 48 - 610 - 17


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 08, 2024 297   @ Queens L 54-67 47%     0 - 1 -17.2 -25.3 +9.4
  Nov 19, 2024 75   @ Wake Forest L 69-82 8%     0 - 2 -2.3 +1.6 -4.0
  Nov 26, 2024 81   @ Florida St. L 63-78 8%    
  Nov 30, 2024 15   @ Marquette L 59-82 2%    
  Dec 04, 2024 336   Bellarmine W 72-63 78%    
  Dec 07, 2024 313   South Carolina Upstate W 77-70 72%    
  Dec 14, 2024 176   @ UNC Asheville L 68-75 26%    
  Dec 17, 2024 9   @ Tennessee L 57-82 1%    
  Jan 01, 2025 133   Furman L 69-73 37%    
  Jan 04, 2025 127   Samford L 75-79 35%    
  Jan 08, 2025 206   @ Wofford L 65-71 31%    
  Jan 11, 2025 252   Mercer W 71-68 60%    
  Jan 15, 2025 344   @ VMI W 75-71 65%    
  Jan 18, 2025 171   UNC Greensboro L 66-67 45%    
  Jan 22, 2025 188   @ East Tennessee St. L 66-73 28%    
  Jan 25, 2025 317   @ The Citadel W 66-65 52%    
  Jan 29, 2025 169   Chattanooga L 70-71 45%    
  Feb 01, 2025 344   VMI W 78-68 82%    
  Feb 05, 2025 133   @ Furman L 66-76 20%    
  Feb 08, 2025 171   @ UNC Greensboro L 63-70 27%    
  Feb 12, 2025 188   East Tennessee St. L 69-70 48%    
  Feb 15, 2025 317   The Citadel W 69-62 72%    
  Feb 19, 2025 169   @ Chattanooga L 67-74 26%    
  Feb 22, 2025 127   @ Samford L 72-82 19%    
  Feb 26, 2025 206   Wofford W 68-67 50%    
  Mar 01, 2025 252   @ Mercer L 68-71 39%    
Projected Record 10 - 16 8 - 10




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.9 1.1 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.0 3.7 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.8 2.1 1.7 0.8 0.1 0.0 5.5 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.1 2.9 2.3 0.6 0.0 7.1 3rd
4th 0.0 0.1 1.6 4.4 3.0 0.5 0.0 9.7 4th
5th 0.0 0.3 2.1 5.0 3.6 0.7 0.0 11.6 5th
6th 0.0 0.5 2.6 5.8 4.0 0.7 0.0 13.6 6th
7th 0.1 0.8 3.6 6.0 3.9 0.7 0.0 15.2 7th
8th 0.0 0.3 1.7 4.9 5.5 2.8 0.6 0.0 15.8 8th
9th 0.0 0.6 2.1 4.0 3.5 1.5 0.2 0.0 11.9 9th
10th 0.2 0.8 1.5 1.9 1.2 0.3 0.0 6.0 10th
Total 0.2 0.9 2.2 4.2 6.9 9.5 11.0 12.0 12.5 11.4 9.9 7.4 5.3 3.3 1.9 1.0 0.3 0.1 0.0 Total



Southern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
17-1 100.0% 0.1    0.1
16-2 94.0% 0.3    0.3 0.0
15-3 86.4% 0.9    0.7 0.2 0.0
14-4 57.7% 1.1    0.6 0.4 0.1 0.0
13-5 28.8% 0.9    0.3 0.4 0.2 0.0
12-6 5.9% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
11-7 0.5% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0% 0.0    0.0
9-9 0.0%
Total 3.7% 3.7 2.0 1.1 0.4 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
17-1 0.1% 45.9% 45.9% 12.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
16-2 0.3% 31.3% 31.3% 13.2 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2
15-3 1.0% 28.5% 28.5% 13.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.7
14-4 1.9% 20.8% 20.8% 14.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 1.5
13-5 3.3% 15.1% 15.1% 14.6 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 2.8
12-6 5.3% 10.4% 10.4% 15.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 4.7
11-7 7.4% 6.7% 6.7% 15.4 0.0 0.2 0.3 6.9
10-8 9.9% 5.1% 5.1% 15.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 9.4
9-9 11.4% 3.7% 3.7% 15.9 0.0 0.0 0.4 11.0
8-10 12.5% 2.3% 2.3% 16.0 0.3 12.2
7-11 12.0% 1.2% 1.2% 16.0 0.2 11.9
6-12 11.0% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.1 11.0
5-13 9.5% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 9.5
4-14 6.9% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 6.9
3-15 4.2% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 4.2
2-16 2.2% 2.2
1-17 0.9% 0.9
0-18 0.2% 0.2
Total 100% 3.9% 3.9% 0.0% 15.1 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.0 1.9 96.1 0.0%