American
Patriot League
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-3.7#232
Expected Predictive Rating-1.2#182
Pace60.6#352
Improvement+2.1#68

Offense
Total Offense-1.3#213
First Shot+2.0#118
After Offensive Rebound-3.3#336
Layup/Dunks-2.1#256
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.5#314
3 Pt Jumpshots+6.7#19
Freethrows-0.2#186
Improvement+0.6#125

Defense
Total Defense-2.4#245
First Shot-2.7#266
After Offensive Rebounds+0.3#155
Layups/Dunks-6.6#360
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.4#234
3 Pt Jumpshots+6.6#5
Freethrows-2.4#329
Improvement+1.5#73
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 18.8% 20.8% 15.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.3 15.2 15.6
.500 or above 68.3% 76.8% 53.3%
.500 or above in Conference 80.5% 83.6% 74.9%
Conference Champion 27.3% 30.5% 21.5%
Last Place in Conference 3.2% 2.4% 4.6%
First Four5.1% 4.6% 6.0%
First Round16.3% 18.6% 12.2%
Second Round0.4% 0.5% 0.2%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Maryland Baltimore Co. (Home) - 64.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 16 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 20 - 4
Quad 32 - 32 - 6
Quad 415 - 817 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 165   @ La Salle L 52-65 27%     0 - 1 -10.4 -9.5 -3.2
  Nov 10, 2024 243   Harvard W 67-55 65%     1 - 1 +4.4 -1.3 +6.9
  Nov 12, 2024 304   @ Siena L 66-74 54%     1 - 2 -12.9 +4.0 -18.3
  Nov 15, 2024 22   @ North Carolina L 55-107 3%     1 - 3 -34.4 -13.5 -18.0
  Nov 18, 2024 123   @ High Point L 73-80 20%     1 - 4 -1.7 +13.4 -16.5
  Nov 22, 2024 222   UMKC W 64-60 49%     2 - 4 +0.6 -7.1 +7.9
  Nov 24, 2024 233   Albany W 81-77 50%     3 - 4 +0.2 +3.4 -3.3
  Dec 04, 2024 136   George Washington W 81-71 OT 42%     4 - 4 +8.3 -2.3 +9.6
  Dec 18, 2024 86   @ Saint Joseph's L 57-84 11%     4 - 5 -17.4 -8.1 -10.3
  Dec 22, 2024 92   @ Virginia L 58-63 13%     4 - 6 +3.6 +4.6 -2.0
  Dec 29, 2024 245   Maryland Baltimore Co. W 77-73 64%    
  Jan 02, 2025 318   @ Navy W 70-68 58%    
  Jan 05, 2025 313   Holy Cross W 72-64 77%    
  Jan 08, 2025 257   @ Boston University L 64-65 45%    
  Jan 11, 2025 266   Bucknell W 68-63 68%    
  Jan 13, 2025 322   @ Loyola Maryland W 68-66 58%    
  Jan 18, 2025 313   @ Holy Cross W 69-67 57%    
  Jan 22, 2025 246   Lehigh W 71-67 64%    
  Jan 25, 2025 241   Colgate W 69-65 63%    
  Jan 29, 2025 267   @ Lafayette L 64-65 46%    
  Feb 01, 2025 312   Army W 71-63 76%    
  Feb 05, 2025 266   @ Bucknell L 65-66 46%    
  Feb 08, 2025 246   @ Lehigh L 68-70 43%    
  Feb 10, 2025 267   Lafayette W 67-62 67%    
  Feb 15, 2025 322   Loyola Maryland W 71-63 77%    
  Feb 19, 2025 312   @ Army W 68-66 56%    
  Feb 22, 2025 257   Boston University W 67-62 66%    
  Feb 26, 2025 318   Navy W 73-65 77%    
  Mar 01, 2025 241   @ Colgate L 66-68 42%    
Projected Record 16 - 13 11 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Patriot League Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.8 3.9 7.0 7.1 4.9 2.5 0.9 0.2 27.3 1st
2nd 0.0 0.7 4.6 7.0 4.2 1.3 0.2 0.0 17.9 2nd
3rd 0.4 4.2 6.1 2.8 0.5 0.0 13.9 3rd
4th 0.1 2.8 5.7 2.3 0.2 0.0 11.2 4th
5th 0.0 1.5 4.9 2.2 0.2 8.8 5th
6th 0.0 0.7 3.5 2.5 0.2 0.0 7.0 6th
7th 0.0 0.4 2.3 2.5 0.3 5.5 7th
8th 0.0 0.3 1.4 1.9 0.4 0.0 4.0 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.8 1.2 0.4 0.0 2.8 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.5 0.2 0.0 1.6 10th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.6 3.3 5.4 8.1 10.9 13.1 14.0 13.8 11.6 8.4 5.1 2.5 0.9 0.2 Total



Patriot League Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.2    0.2
17-1 100.0% 0.9    0.9 0.0
16-2 99.8% 2.5    2.5 0.1
15-3 96.1% 4.9    4.5 0.4 0.0
14-4 84.6% 7.1    5.3 1.7 0.1
13-5 60.1% 7.0    3.6 2.8 0.5 0.0
12-6 28.0% 3.9    1.0 1.7 0.9 0.2 0.0
11-7 5.7% 0.8    0.0 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
9-9 0.0%
Total 27.3% 27.3 18.1 6.9 1.8 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.2% 53.7% 53.7% 12.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
17-1 0.9% 48.5% 48.5% 13.4 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.5
16-2 2.5% 40.9% 40.9% 14.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.3 0.0 1.5
15-3 5.1% 37.1% 37.1% 14.6 0.1 0.7 1.0 0.1 3.2
14-4 8.4% 31.5% 31.5% 15.0 0.0 0.5 1.6 0.5 5.7
13-5 11.6% 26.7% 26.7% 15.4 0.0 0.2 1.5 1.4 8.5
12-6 13.8% 21.7% 21.7% 15.7 0.1 0.9 2.1 10.8
11-7 14.0% 18.5% 18.5% 15.8 0.0 0.4 2.2 11.4
10-8 13.1% 13.8% 13.8% 15.9 0.2 1.6 11.3
9-9 10.9% 11.7% 11.7% 16.0 0.0 1.2 9.6
8-10 8.1% 6.6% 6.6% 16.0 0.0 0.5 7.6
7-11 5.4% 4.0% 4.0% 16.0 0.2 5.1
6-12 3.3% 3.1% 3.1% 16.0 0.1 3.2
5-13 1.6% 2.0% 2.0% 16.0 0.0 1.6
4-14 0.8% 1.5% 1.5% 16.0 0.0 0.8
3-15 0.3% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.0 0.3
2-16 0.1% 0.1
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18
Total 100% 18.8% 18.8% 0.0% 15.3 0.0 0.1 0.6 2.2 5.8 10.0 81.2 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 12.0 20.9 53.5 25.6