American
Patriot League
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-5.3#263
Expected Predictive Rating-7.7#287
Pace59.4#359
Improvement-0.2#214

Offense
Total Offense-0.3#183
First Shot+0.4#161
After Offensive Rebound-0.8#227
Layup/Dunks+1.0#143
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.4#342
3 Pt Jumpshots+5.5#36
Freethrows-2.7#310
Improvement+1.7#22

Defense
Total Defense-5.0#329
First Shot-4.4#304
After Offensive Rebounds-0.6#225
Layups/Dunks-8.4#356
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.2#193
3 Pt Jumpshots+6.5#23
Freethrows-2.6#310
Improvement-2.0#348
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 9.8% 12.1% 8.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.6 15.5 15.7
.500 or above 33.8% 48.0% 24.3%
.500 or above in Conference 63.4% 71.1% 58.2%
Conference Champion 12.5% 16.3% 9.8%
Last Place in Conference 7.0% 4.6% 8.6%
First Four4.9% 5.5% 4.5%
First Round7.6% 9.8% 6.2%
Second Round0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: UMKC (Neutral) - 40.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 20 - 4
Quad 31 - 51 - 9
Quad 412 - 914 - 17


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 130   @ La Salle L 52-65 17%     0 - 1 -8.0 -7.7 -2.7
  Nov 10, 2024 242   Harvard W 67-55 57%     1 - 1 +4.9 -1.6 +7.7
  Nov 12, 2024 307   @ Siena L 66-74 49%     1 - 2 -13.1 +4.1 -18.7
  Nov 15, 2024 9   @ North Carolina L 55-107 2%     1 - 3 -31.5 -12.6 -15.9
  Nov 18, 2024 124   @ High Point L 73-80 16%     1 - 4 -1.5 +13.8 -16.7
  Nov 22, 2024 217   UMKC L 65-68 40%    
  Nov 24, 2024 243   Albany L 72-73 46%    
  Dec 04, 2024 144   George Washington L 71-74 38%    
  Dec 18, 2024 89   @ Saint Joseph's L 63-77 10%    
  Dec 22, 2024 70   @ Virginia L 51-67 7%    
  Dec 29, 2024 314   Maryland Baltimore Co. W 78-72 71%    
  Jan 02, 2025 310   @ Navy W 69-68 50%    
  Jan 05, 2025 315   Holy Cross W 73-67 71%    
  Jan 08, 2025 288   @ Boston University L 65-67 43%    
  Jan 11, 2025 231   Bucknell W 68-67 54%    
  Jan 13, 2025 336   @ Loyola Maryland W 67-65 58%    
  Jan 18, 2025 315   @ Holy Cross W 70-69 51%    
  Jan 22, 2025 283   Lehigh W 73-69 63%    
  Jan 25, 2025 183   Colgate L 65-66 47%    
  Jan 29, 2025 244   @ Lafayette L 63-67 37%    
  Feb 01, 2025 294   Army W 67-62 66%    
  Feb 05, 2025 231   @ Bucknell L 65-70 33%    
  Feb 08, 2025 283   @ Lehigh L 70-72 43%    
  Feb 10, 2025 244   Lafayette W 66-64 57%    
  Feb 15, 2025 336   Loyola Maryland W 70-62 77%    
  Feb 19, 2025 294   @ Army L 64-65 45%    
  Feb 22, 2025 288   Boston University W 68-64 64%    
  Feb 26, 2025 310   Navy W 71-65 69%    
  Mar 01, 2025 183   @ Colgate L 62-69 27%    
Projected Record 13 - 16 10 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Patriot League Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.2 1.4 2.6 3.7 2.6 1.4 0.4 0.1 12.5 1st
2nd 0.3 2.7 4.2 3.5 1.5 0.3 0.0 12.6 2nd
3rd 0.4 3.2 5.7 3.0 0.7 0.1 13.0 3rd
4th 0.0 0.3 3.4 5.8 2.7 0.4 12.6 4th
5th 0.2 2.2 5.9 3.0 0.5 0.0 11.9 5th
6th 0.2 1.7 5.2 2.9 0.3 10.4 6th
7th 0.2 1.6 4.0 2.8 0.3 9.0 7th
8th 0.2 1.4 3.4 2.7 0.5 8.1 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.2 2.2 1.8 0.4 0.0 6.0 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.0 1.3 0.8 0.1 0.0 4.0 10th
Total 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.3 2.7 4.6 7.2 9.0 11.1 12.9 12.7 11.8 9.1 6.7 5.3 2.9 1.5 0.4 0.1 Total



Patriot League Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
17-1 100.0% 0.4    0.4
16-2 98.3% 1.4    1.4 0.1
15-3 88.9% 2.6    2.2 0.4 0.0
14-4 70.4% 3.7    2.2 1.3 0.2 0.0
13-5 39.2% 2.6    1.0 1.2 0.4 0.0
12-6 15.1% 1.4    0.2 0.6 0.5 0.1
11-7 1.4% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 12.5% 12.5 7.4 3.7 1.1 0.2



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.1% 53.6% 53.6% 13.3 0.0 0.0 0.0
17-1 0.4% 30.4% 30.4% 13.7 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3
16-2 1.5% 32.7% 32.7% 14.7 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 1.0
15-3 2.9% 33.6% 33.6% 14.9 0.0 0.3 0.4 0.2 2.0
14-4 5.3% 25.4% 25.4% 15.3 0.0 0.1 0.6 0.6 3.9
13-5 6.7% 19.3% 19.3% 15.7 0.0 0.4 0.9 5.4
12-6 9.1% 15.1% 15.1% 15.8 0.2 1.2 7.7
11-7 11.8% 11.5% 11.5% 15.9 0.0 0.1 1.3 10.5
10-8 12.7% 8.9% 8.9% 16.0 0.0 1.1 11.5
9-9 12.9% 6.8% 6.8% 16.0 0.9 12.0
8-10 11.1% 4.9% 4.9% 16.0 0.5 10.5
7-11 9.0% 1.4% 1.4% 16.0 0.1 8.8
6-12 7.2% 1.2% 1.2% 16.0 0.1 7.1
5-13 4.6% 1.0% 1.0% 16.0 0.0 4.5
4-14 2.7% 2.7
3-15 1.3% 1.3
2-16 0.5% 0.5
1-17 0.2% 0.2
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 9.8% 9.8% 0.0% 15.6 0.2 0.6 2.0 7.0 90.2 0.0%