Central Connecticut St.
Northeast
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-4.8#254
Expected Predictive Rating+2.3#155
Pace66.9#254
Improvement-1.9#339

Offense
Total Offense-4.2#295
First Shot-0.6#202
After Offensive Rebound-3.6#346
Layup/Dunks+0.0#171
2 Pt Jumpshots+3.2#40
3 Pt Jumpshots-5.1#316
Freethrows+1.2#122
Improvement-0.5#258

Defense
Total Defense-0.6#192
First Shot-1.1#220
After Offensive Rebounds+0.6#151
Layups/Dunks-2.1#245
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.1#54
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.6#242
Freethrows+0.4#155
Improvement-1.4#325
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 34.0% 37.6% 28.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.5 15.4 15.7
.500 or above 80.3% 87.3% 69.8%
.500 or above in Conference 92.7% 94.6% 89.8%
Conference Champion 47.7% 52.7% 40.3%
Last Place in Conference 1.1% 0.7% 1.7%
First Four17.2% 16.6% 18.1%
First Round24.7% 28.8% 18.7%
Second Round0.5% 0.7% 0.3%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Sacred Heart (Away) - 59.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 16 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 21 - 11 - 2
Quad 31 - 22 - 5
Quad 416 - 718 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 77   @ Providence L 55-59 9%     0 - 1 +6.4 -4.3 +10.3
  Nov 08, 2024 99   @ Saint Joseph's W 73-67 12%     1 - 1 +14.1 +5.6 +8.7
  Nov 16, 2024 149   Northeastern L 62-80 30%     1 - 2 -17.4 -10.4 -7.1
  Nov 21, 2024 333   @ Sacred Heart W 74-71 60%    
  Nov 24, 2024 330   Binghamton W 72-64 77%    
  Dec 01, 2024 155   Umass Lowell L 71-73 43%    
  Dec 04, 2024 128   @ Massachusetts L 65-75 18%    
  Dec 07, 2024 316   @ Holy Cross W 70-69 54%    
  Dec 15, 2024 113   @ Rhode Island L 69-80 15%    
  Dec 18, 2024 271   @ Fairfield L 67-69 42%    
  Dec 21, 2024 225   Quinnipiac W 71-70 54%    
  Jan 03, 2025 342   @ St. Francis (PA) W 71-67 65%    
  Jan 05, 2025 359   @ Mercyhurst W 67-60 72%    
  Jan 10, 2025 281   Wagner W 61-57 65%    
  Jan 12, 2025 338   LIU Brooklyn W 76-67 80%    
  Jan 18, 2025 347   @ Fairleigh Dickinson W 78-73 67%    
  Jan 24, 2025 337   @ Le Moyne W 70-67 61%    
  Jan 26, 2025 350   Chicago St. W 75-64 83%    
  Jan 30, 2025 338   @ LIU Brooklyn W 73-70 62%    
  Feb 01, 2025 343   @ Stonehill W 69-65 65%    
  Feb 06, 2025 347   Fairleigh Dickinson W 81-70 83%    
  Feb 13, 2025 359   Mercyhurst W 70-57 86%    
  Feb 15, 2025 342   St. Francis (PA) W 74-64 82%    
  Feb 20, 2025 350   @ Chicago St. W 72-67 67%    
  Feb 22, 2025 343   Stonehill W 72-62 82%    
  Feb 27, 2025 337   Le Moyne W 73-64 78%    
  Mar 01, 2025 281   @ Wagner L 58-60 45%    
Projected Record 16 - 11 11 - 5




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Northeast Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.7 4.0 8.8 12.5 11.6 7.3 2.6 47.7 1st
2nd 0.0 1.0 4.7 8.0 6.2 2.5 0.4 22.8 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.7 3.8 4.9 2.2 0.3 0.0 11.9 3rd
4th 0.0 0.3 2.6 3.1 1.0 0.1 7.1 4th
5th 0.1 1.4 2.3 0.7 0.0 4.5 5th
6th 0.1 0.7 1.4 0.4 0.0 2.6 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.9 0.4 0.0 1.8 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.3 0.0 1.1 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.5 9th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 1.1 2.0 3.5 6.1 8.6 11.3 14.3 15.4 15.1 12.1 7.3 2.6 Total



Northeast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0 100.0% 2.6    2.6
15-1 100.0% 7.3    7.2 0.1
14-2 96.3% 11.6    10.5 1.1
13-3 83.3% 12.5    9.5 2.9 0.1
12-4 57.5% 8.8    4.9 3.5 0.5 0.0
11-5 28.2% 4.0    1.2 1.9 0.9 0.1
10-6 6.4% 0.7    0.1 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
9-7 0.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
8-8 0.0%
Total 47.7% 47.7 35.9 9.7 1.8 0.3 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0 2.6% 70.7% 70.7% 13.9 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.5 0.1 0.8
15-1 7.3% 59.5% 59.5% 14.8 0.1 0.4 1.1 1.7 1.1 3.0
14-2 12.1% 51.5% 51.5% 15.3 0.0 0.2 0.7 2.3 3.0 5.9
13-3 15.1% 43.8% 43.8% 15.7 0.0 0.3 1.3 5.0 8.5
12-4 15.4% 34.5% 34.5% 15.9 0.0 0.0 0.5 4.8 10.1
11-5 14.3% 29.1% 29.1% 16.0 0.0 0.1 4.0 10.1
10-6 11.3% 22.9% 22.9% 16.0 0.0 2.6 8.7
9-7 8.6% 18.0% 18.0% 16.0 0.0 1.5 7.0
8-8 6.1% 13.7% 13.7% 16.0 0.8 5.2
7-9 3.5% 10.3% 10.3% 16.0 0.4 3.1
6-10 2.0% 7.5% 7.5% 16.0 0.2 1.9
5-11 1.1% 3.9% 3.9% 16.0 0.0 1.1
4-12 0.4% 2.3% 2.3% 16.0 0.0 0.4
3-13 0.2% 0.2
2-14 0.1% 0.1
1-15 0.0% 0.0
0-16
Total 100% 34.0% 34.0% 0.0% 15.5 0.0 0.3 0.9 2.8 6.4 23.6 66.0 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 12.0 14.3 76.2 4.8 4.8