East Tennessee St.
Southern
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-1.3#188
Expected Predictive Rating-14.9#342
Pace67.4#242
Improvement-0.1#189

Offense
Total Offense+0.8#156
First Shot+0.0#178
After Offensive Rebound+0.8#128
Layup/Dunks-3.5#292
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.7#90
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.5#74
Freethrows-1.6#266
Improvement-0.8#304

Defense
Total Defense-2.1#240
First Shot-1.2#216
After Offensive Rebounds-0.9#244
Layups/Dunks+2.9#92
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.4#228
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.5#232
Freethrows-2.3#299
Improvement+0.7#91
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 11.0% 11.8% 7.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.4 14.3 15.0
.500 or above 55.6% 60.4% 32.4%
.500 or above in Conference 69.8% 72.5% 56.6%
Conference Champion 13.3% 14.5% 7.4%
Last Place in Conference 2.9% 2.3% 5.4%
First Four1.4% 1.3% 1.9%
First Round10.4% 11.2% 6.4%
Second Round0.8% 0.9% 0.3%
Sweet Sixteen0.2% 0.2% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: South Carolina Upstate (Home) - 83.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 21 - 31 - 4
Quad 34 - 64 - 10
Quad 412 - 516 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 08, 2024 199   Eastern Kentucky L 78-82 63%     0 - 1 -8.9 +4.9 -14.0
  Nov 16, 2024 130   @ Davidson L 70-76 27%     0 - 2 -1.1 +6.7 -8.5
  Nov 22, 2024 314   South Carolina Upstate W 82-72 83%    
  Nov 24, 2024 299   Queens W 81-72 80%    
  Nov 27, 2024 142   @ Charlotte L 64-70 30%    
  Nov 30, 2024 231   Austin Peay W 72-67 68%    
  Dec 03, 2024 128   @ James Madison L 71-78 27%    
  Dec 07, 2024 94   @ Wichita St. L 68-78 19%    
  Dec 14, 2024 226   @ Jacksonville L 68-69 46%    
  Dec 18, 2024 263   Elon W 78-71 73%    
  Dec 21, 2024 215   @ UMKC L 69-71 44%    
  Jan 01, 2025 347   VMI W 83-69 90%    
  Jan 04, 2025 204   Wofford W 72-68 64%    
  Jan 08, 2025 254   @ Mercer W 73-72 51%    
  Jan 11, 2025 309   The Citadel W 74-64 81%    
  Jan 15, 2025 135   @ Furman L 71-77 30%    
  Jan 18, 2025 127   @ Samford L 77-84 28%    
  Jan 22, 2025 258   Western Carolina W 73-66 72%    
  Jan 25, 2025 168   Chattanooga W 74-72 58%    
  Jan 29, 2025 170   @ UNC Greensboro L 67-71 37%    
  Feb 01, 2025 135   Furman W 75-74 50%    
  Feb 05, 2025 347   @ VMI W 80-72 76%    
  Feb 08, 2025 127   Samford L 80-81 48%    
  Feb 12, 2025 258   @ Western Carolina W 70-69 53%    
  Feb 15, 2025 168   @ Chattanooga L 71-75 37%    
  Feb 19, 2025 170   UNC Greensboro W 70-68 58%    
  Feb 22, 2025 204   @ Wofford L 69-71 43%    
  Feb 26, 2025 254   Mercer W 76-70 70%    
  Mar 01, 2025 309   @ The Citadel W 71-67 63%    
Projected Record 15 - 14 10 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.7 2.3 3.7 3.4 2.2 0.8 0.2 13.3 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 1.2 3.9 4.6 2.6 0.7 0.0 13.3 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 1.5 5.1 5.0 1.8 0.2 0.0 13.8 3rd
4th 0.1 1.8 5.4 4.7 1.4 0.1 0.0 13.5 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 1.8 5.1 4.5 1.0 0.0 12.6 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 1.9 4.7 4.0 0.8 0.0 11.7 6th
7th 0.0 0.3 1.8 3.8 2.8 0.6 0.0 9.3 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 0.5 1.6 2.7 1.7 0.4 0.0 6.8 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.3 1.4 0.8 0.2 0.0 4.3 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 1.5 10th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.0 2.1 3.5 5.4 7.8 9.8 11.6 12.3 12.1 11.0 8.8 6.6 4.1 2.2 0.8 0.2 Total



Southern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.2    0.2
17-1 100.0% 0.8    0.8 0.0
16-2 98.0% 2.2    2.0 0.2
15-3 82.8% 3.4    2.5 0.9 0.0
14-4 56.7% 3.7    1.9 1.4 0.3 0.0
13-5 26.0% 2.3    0.6 1.1 0.5 0.1 0.0
12-6 6.0% 0.7    0.1 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0
11-7 0.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0% 0.0    0.0
9-9 0.0%
Total 13.3% 13.3 8.1 3.9 1.1 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.2% 56.5% 55.1% 1.4% 11.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 3.2%
17-1 0.8% 49.0% 49.0% 12.5 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.4
16-2 2.2% 41.5% 41.5% 12.9 0.0 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 1.3
15-3 4.1% 31.9% 31.9% 13.5 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.5 0.1 0.0 2.8
14-4 6.6% 26.7% 26.7% 14.0 0.1 0.4 0.7 0.4 0.1 4.8
13-5 8.8% 19.2% 19.2% 14.5 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.7 0.2 7.1
12-6 11.0% 14.7% 14.7% 14.9 0.1 0.4 0.7 0.4 9.3
11-7 12.1% 10.3% 10.3% 15.2 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.5 10.9
10-8 12.3% 7.0% 7.0% 15.6 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.6 11.5
9-9 11.6% 5.2% 5.2% 15.8 0.0 0.1 0.5 11.0
8-10 9.8% 3.1% 3.1% 15.9 0.0 0.3 9.5
7-11 7.8% 1.5% 1.5% 16.0 0.0 0.1 7.7
6-12 5.4% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.0 5.4
5-13 3.5% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.0 3.5
4-14 2.1% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 2.1
3-15 1.0% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.0 1.0
2-16 0.4% 0.4
1-17 0.1% 0.1
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 11.0% 11.0% 0.0% 14.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.9 2.7 2.9 2.7 89.0 0.0%