Idaho
Big Sky
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-5.3#259
Expected Predictive Rating-6.0#271
Pace64.1#303
Improvement+2.9#40

Offense
Total Offense+0.6#153
First Shot+0.2#170
After Offensive Rebound+0.5#154
Layup/Dunks-0.3#197
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.2#243
3 Pt Jumpshots+4.2#55
Freethrows-2.5#317
Improvement+1.6#71

Defense
Total Defense-5.9#343
First Shot-5.8#344
After Offensive Rebounds-0.1#200
Layups/Dunks-0.6#191
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.9#342
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.7#261
Freethrows-0.6#229
Improvement+1.2#90
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 5.5% 7.3% 4.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.6 15.5 15.7
.500 or above 14.4% 23.1% 8.3%
.500 or above in Conference 45.4% 60.9% 34.7%
Conference Champion 5.1% 9.5% 2.1%
Last Place in Conference 11.1% 5.6% 14.9%
First Four2.7% 2.9% 2.6%
First Round4.3% 6.0% 3.1%
Second Round0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Montana St. (Home) - 41.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 2
Quad 20 - 20 - 4
Quad 33 - 73 - 10
Quad 49 - 812 - 19


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2024 223   UC Davis L 75-79 55%     0 - 1 -10.5 +0.9 -11.2
  Nov 11, 2024 74   @ Washington St. L 67-90 8%     0 - 2 -12.4 -3.4 -7.9
  Nov 16, 2024 42   @ BYU L 71-95 4%     0 - 3 -9.6 +1.9 -10.9
  Nov 23, 2024 228   Southern Utah L 67-82 43%     0 - 4 -18.6 +6.3 -28.1
  Nov 24, 2024 316   @ San Diego L 61-68 52%     0 - 5 -12.9 -11.6 -1.3
  Nov 30, 2024 177   UC Riverside W 80-68 45%     1 - 5 +8.1 +14.1 -4.7
  Dec 04, 2024 222   @ UMKC W 82-77 32%     2 - 5 +4.6 +11.7 -7.0
  Dec 07, 2024 69   @ Oregon St. L 62-78 7%     2 - 6 -5.1 +2.3 -9.2
  Dec 15, 2024 90   UC San Diego L 56-80 21%     2 - 7 -20.8 -12.6 -9.2
  Dec 18, 2024 223   @ UC Davis L 66-74 32%     2 - 8 -8.5 -3.1 -5.3
  Dec 21, 2024 301   @ Pacific W 95-72 48%     3 - 8 +18.3 +26.2 -6.6
  Jan 02, 2025 155   Montana St. L 72-74 41%    
  Jan 04, 2025 191   Montana L 74-75 47%    
  Jan 09, 2025 335   @ Sacramento St. W 68-66 59%    
  Jan 11, 2025 251   @ Portland St. L 73-76 38%    
  Jan 18, 2025 254   Eastern Washington W 78-75 61%    
  Jan 20, 2025 191   @ Montana L 71-78 27%    
  Jan 23, 2025 180   Northern Colorado L 77-78 46%    
  Jan 25, 2025 265   Northern Arizona W 76-73 62%    
  Jan 30, 2025 210   @ Weber St. L 69-75 30%    
  Feb 01, 2025 250   @ Idaho St. L 66-69 38%    
  Feb 06, 2025 251   Portland St. W 76-73 59%    
  Feb 08, 2025 335   Sacramento St. W 71-63 78%    
  Feb 15, 2025 254   @ Eastern Washington L 75-78 38%    
  Feb 20, 2025 265   @ Northern Arizona L 73-76 40%    
  Feb 22, 2025 180   @ Northern Colorado L 74-81 26%    
  Feb 27, 2025 250   Idaho St. W 69-66 59%    
  Mar 01, 2025 210   Weber St. W 72-71 51%    
  Mar 03, 2025 155   @ Montana St. L 69-77 22%    
Projected Record 11 - 18 8 - 10




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Sky Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 1.0 1.7 1.3 0.7 0.2 0.1 0.0 5.1 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 2.1 2.8 1.4 0.4 0.0 7.1 2nd
3rd 0.3 2.7 4.0 1.5 0.2 0.0 8.7 3rd
4th 0.2 2.9 5.3 1.9 0.2 10.7 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 2.7 6.3 2.7 0.3 0.0 12.1 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 2.1 6.4 3.9 0.4 0.0 13.0 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 2.0 5.8 4.5 0.5 0.0 12.9 7th
8th 0.0 0.3 2.1 5.1 4.3 0.8 0.0 12.6 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.6 2.6 4.1 3.2 0.8 0.0 11.4 9th
10th 0.0 0.3 0.9 1.7 2.1 1.2 0.3 0.0 6.5 10th
Total 0.0 0.3 0.9 2.3 5.0 7.5 10.8 13.2 14.6 14.0 11.4 8.4 5.6 3.3 1.7 0.7 0.2 0.1 0.0 Total



Big Sky Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
17-1 100.0% 0.1    0.1
16-2 100.0% 0.2    0.2 0.0
15-3 93.8% 0.7    0.6 0.1 0.0
14-4 74.8% 1.3    0.9 0.3 0.0
13-5 51.6% 1.7    0.7 0.7 0.2 0.0
12-6 18.2% 1.0    0.2 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0
11-7 2.5% 0.2    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0
10-8 0.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
9-9 0.0%
Total 5.1% 5.1 2.7 1.6 0.6 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.0% 0.0
17-1 0.1% 30.8% 30.8% 13.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
16-2 0.2% 24.5% 24.5% 13.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2
15-3 0.7% 28.1% 28.1% 14.4 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.5
14-4 1.7% 23.9% 23.9% 14.8 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.0 1.3
13-5 3.3% 17.7% 17.7% 15.1 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.1 2.7
12-6 5.6% 13.7% 13.7% 15.5 0.0 0.4 0.4 4.8
11-7 8.4% 9.5% 9.5% 15.7 0.3 0.5 7.6
10-8 11.4% 8.1% 8.1% 16.0 0.0 0.9 10.5
9-9 14.0% 5.3% 5.3% 16.0 0.7 13.2
8-10 14.6% 3.6% 3.6% 16.0 0.5 14.1
7-11 13.2% 1.6% 1.6% 16.0 0.2 12.9
6-12 10.8% 1.3% 1.3% 16.0 0.1 10.7
5-13 7.5% 1.2% 1.2% 16.0 0.1 7.4
4-14 5.0% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.0 4.9
3-15 2.3% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.0 2.3
2-16 0.9% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 0.9
1-17 0.3% 0.3
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 5.5% 5.5% 0.0% 15.6 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.4 3.7 94.5 0.0%