Idaho
Big Sky
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-6.2#285
Expected Predictive Rating-9.8#308
Pace66.8#258
Improvement-0.4#237

Offense
Total Offense-2.3#239
First Shot+0.3#169
After Offensive Rebound-2.6#315
Layup/Dunks+1.9#112
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.4#254
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.9#84
Freethrows-3.1#322
Improvement-0.5#257

Defense
Total Defense-3.9#303
First Shot-6.5#350
After Offensive Rebounds+2.5#39
Layups/Dunks-1.0#204
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.9#325
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.2#171
Freethrows-2.8#317
Improvement+0.1#176
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 3.8% 5.2% 3.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.4 15.2 15.6
.500 or above 13.9% 23.2% 8.9%
.500 or above in Conference 33.4% 42.4% 28.5%
Conference Champion 3.3% 4.7% 2.5%
Last Place in Conference 22.1% 16.7% 25.0%
First Four1.7% 1.6% 1.8%
First Round3.0% 4.3% 2.3%
Second Round0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Southern Utah (Neutral) - 35.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 20 - 4
Quad 32 - 82 - 12
Quad 48 - 810 - 20


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2024 147   UC Davis L 75-79 34%     0 - 1 -6.1 +1.3 -7.3
  Nov 11, 2024 78   @ Washington St. L 67-90 7%     0 - 2 -12.5 -4.3 -7.0
  Nov 16, 2024 34   @ BYU L 71-95 4%     0 - 3 -9.1 +2.0 -10.5
  Nov 23, 2024 207   Southern Utah L 73-77 35%    
  Nov 24, 2024 299   @ San Diego L 72-74 43%    
  Nov 30, 2024 199   UC Riverside L 71-72 45%    
  Dec 04, 2024 217   @ UMKC L 66-73 27%    
  Dec 07, 2024 98   @ Oregon St. L 62-76 9%    
  Dec 15, 2024 149   UC San Diego L 68-72 36%    
  Dec 18, 2024 147   @ UC Davis L 68-78 18%    
  Dec 21, 2024 293   @ Pacific L 71-73 41%    
  Jan 02, 2025 157   Montana St. L 72-75 38%    
  Jan 04, 2025 208   Montana L 71-72 47%    
  Jan 09, 2025 306   @ Sacramento St. L 65-66 46%    
  Jan 11, 2025 221   @ Portland St. L 75-81 28%    
  Jan 18, 2025 246   Eastern Washington W 78-77 54%    
  Jan 20, 2025 208   @ Montana L 68-75 29%    
  Jan 23, 2025 148   Northern Colorado L 72-76 36%    
  Jan 25, 2025 277   Northern Arizona W 72-69 59%    
  Jan 30, 2025 226   @ Weber St. L 66-72 30%    
  Feb 01, 2025 232   @ Idaho St. L 63-69 31%    
  Feb 06, 2025 221   Portland St. L 77-78 49%    
  Feb 08, 2025 306   Sacramento St. W 68-63 65%    
  Feb 15, 2025 246   @ Eastern Washington L 75-80 34%    
  Feb 20, 2025 277   @ Northern Arizona L 69-72 38%    
  Feb 22, 2025 148   @ Northern Colorado L 69-79 19%    
  Feb 27, 2025 232   Idaho St. W 67-66 51%    
  Mar 01, 2025 226   Weber St. L 68-69 50%    
  Mar 03, 2025 157   @ Montana St. L 69-78 21%    
Projected Record 10 - 19 7 - 11




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Sky Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.6 1.0 0.7 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0 3.3 1st
2nd 0.2 1.5 1.9 1.3 0.4 0.1 5.4 2nd
3rd 0.3 1.7 2.8 1.5 0.2 6.5 3rd
4th 0.4 2.3 3.9 1.6 0.2 0.0 8.3 4th
5th 0.3 2.3 4.8 2.1 0.3 9.6 5th
6th 0.3 2.6 5.6 2.7 0.3 11.4 6th
7th 0.0 0.3 3.2 5.5 3.4 0.3 0.0 12.7 7th
8th 0.0 0.7 3.2 6.0 3.4 0.4 13.7 8th
9th 0.4 1.5 4.1 5.2 2.6 0.5 14.3 9th
10th 0.3 1.3 3.4 4.1 3.9 1.7 0.3 0.0 14.9 10th
Total 0.3 1.3 3.7 5.6 8.6 10.4 12.5 12.2 12.0 10.2 8.2 6.2 4.2 2.5 1.1 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 Total



Big Sky Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
17-1 100.0% 0.1    0.0 0.0
16-2 100.0% 0.3    0.3 0.0
15-3 83.1% 0.5    0.4 0.1 0.0
14-4 65.8% 0.7    0.4 0.3 0.0 0.0
13-5 38.4% 1.0    0.4 0.3 0.2 0.0
12-6 13.4% 0.6    0.1 0.3 0.2 0.0
11-7 1.8% 0.1    0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 3.3% 3.3 1.7 1.0 0.5 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.0% 0.0
17-1 0.1% 59.1% 59.1% 12.7 0.0 0.0 0.0
16-2 0.3% 39.0% 39.0% 13.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2
15-3 0.6% 26.6% 26.6% 13.9 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.5
14-4 1.1% 20.8% 20.8% 14.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.9
13-5 2.5% 17.2% 17.2% 15.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 2.1
12-6 4.2% 14.1% 14.1% 15.4 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 3.6
11-7 6.2% 8.1% 8.1% 15.7 0.0 0.1 0.4 5.7
10-8 8.2% 6.0% 6.0% 15.8 0.0 0.1 0.4 7.7
9-9 10.2% 4.7% 4.7% 16.0 0.0 0.5 9.7
8-10 12.0% 3.1% 3.1% 16.0 0.4 11.6
7-11 12.2% 1.3% 1.3% 16.0 0.2 12.1
6-12 12.5% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.1 12.4
5-13 10.4% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.1 10.3
4-14 8.6% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 8.6
3-15 5.6% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 5.5
2-16 3.7% 3.7
1-17 1.3% 1.3
0-18 0.3% 0.3
Total 100% 3.8% 3.8% 0.0% 15.4 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.8 2.4 96.2 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.1%