Incarnate Word
Southland
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-8.3#309
Expected Predictive Rating-6.1#269
Pace67.3#242
Improvement+0.2#149

Offense
Total Offense-1.2#205
First Shot-0.6#201
After Offensive Rebound-0.6#216
Layup/Dunks-4.2#306
2 Pt Jumpshots+5.2#11
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.1#182
Freethrows-1.7#267
Improvement-0.3#227

Defense
Total Defense-7.1#356
First Shot-6.8#355
After Offensive Rebounds-0.2#204
Layups/Dunks-2.7#269
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.8#70
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.7#307
Freethrows-2.2#291
Improvement+0.5#117
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 1.5% 2.3% 1.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.5 15.4 15.6
.500 or above 38.2% 56.7% 30.0%
.500 or above in Conference 47.0% 58.2% 42.0%
Conference Champion 1.2% 1.5% 1.2%
Last Place in Conference 5.4% 3.0% 6.4%
First Four0.5% 0.7% 0.4%
First Round1.2% 1.9% 0.9%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Northern Arizona (Away) - 30.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 1
Quad 20 - 10 - 2
Quad 31 - 41 - 7
Quad 412 - 913 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 206   @ California Baptist L 78-83 20%     0 - 1 -4.2 +7.5 -11.9
  Nov 12, 2024 347   Prairie View W 84-81 76%     1 - 1 -12.7 +1.3 -14.1
  Nov 16, 2024 362   Arkansas Pine Bluff W 92-64 85%     2 - 1 +8.7 +11.5 -1.6
  Nov 22, 2024 277   @ Northern Arizona L 70-75 31%    
  Nov 25, 2024 195   @ South Alabama L 68-78 19%    
  Nov 27, 2024 327   Western Illinois W 70-69 54%    
  Dec 05, 2024 316   Northwestern St. W 75-72 62%    
  Dec 07, 2024 352   Texas A&M - Commerce W 76-68 76%    
  Dec 10, 2024 5   @ Duke L 59-90 0.3%   
  Jan 04, 2025 202   @ Stephen F. Austin L 64-73 20%    
  Jan 06, 2025 292   @ Lamar L 74-78 34%    
  Jan 11, 2025 358   @ Houston Christian W 78-75 59%    
  Jan 13, 2025 229   Nicholls St. L 71-73 43%    
  Jan 18, 2025 223   TX A&M Corpus Christi L 76-78 41%    
  Jan 20, 2025 190   UT Rio Grande Valley L 78-82 37%    
  Jan 25, 2025 272   @ SE Louisiana L 70-76 31%    
  Jan 27, 2025 356   @ New Orleans W 79-76 59%    
  Feb 01, 2025 358   Houston Christian W 81-72 77%    
  Feb 03, 2025 95   @ McNeese St. L 63-80 7%    
  Feb 08, 2025 272   SE Louisiana W 73-72 52%    
  Feb 10, 2025 356   New Orleans W 82-73 77%    
  Feb 15, 2025 223   @ TX A&M Corpus Christi L 73-81 23%    
  Feb 17, 2025 190   @ UT Rio Grande Valley L 75-85 21%    
  Feb 22, 2025 202   Stephen F. Austin L 67-70 39%    
  Feb 24, 2025 292   Lamar W 77-75 55%    
  Mar 01, 2025 352   @ Texas A&M - Commerce W 73-71 56%    
  Mar 03, 2025 316   Northwestern St. W 75-72 61%    
Projected Record 12 - 15 9 - 11




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southland Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 1.2 1st
2nd 0.2 0.7 1.6 1.8 1.1 0.3 0.0 0.0 5.6 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.3 1.3 2.8 2.3 0.8 0.1 7.6 3rd
4th 0.0 0.3 2.3 3.8 2.2 0.5 9.1 4th
5th 0.0 0.3 2.4 4.6 2.8 0.4 0.0 10.6 5th
6th 0.0 0.4 2.5 5.1 3.1 0.5 11.7 6th
7th 0.0 0.5 3.2 5.9 3.4 0.6 0.0 13.5 7th
8th 0.0 0.5 3.2 4.7 2.9 0.4 0.0 11.8 8th
9th 0.0 0.5 3.2 4.7 2.8 0.4 0.0 11.5 9th
10th 0.0 0.9 2.4 3.2 1.7 0.2 8.4 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 1.0 1.8 2.0 1.0 0.1 6.0 11th
12th 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.0 0.7 0.2 0.1 2.8 12th
Total 0.0 0.2 0.7 2.0 3.5 5.1 7.9 10.1 11.4 12.0 11.7 10.8 8.6 6.1 4.6 2.9 1.6 0.5 0.2 0.1 Total



Southland Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1 81.8% 0.0    0.0 0.0
18-2 80.6% 0.1    0.1 0.0
17-3 51.9% 0.3    0.2 0.1 0.0
16-4 22.3% 0.3    0.2 0.1 0.0
15-5 11.8% 0.3    0.1 0.2 0.0
14-6 1.8% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.2% 0.0    0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 1.2% 1.2 0.6 0.5 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1 0.1% 18.2% 18.2% 14.0 0.0 0.0
18-2 0.2% 19.4% 19.4% 13.6 0.0 0.0 0.1
17-3 0.5% 17.0% 17.0% 14.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4
16-4 1.6% 9.4% 9.4% 15.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 1.4
15-5 2.9% 13.6% 13.6% 15.5 0.0 0.2 0.2 2.5
14-6 4.6% 6.7% 6.7% 15.7 0.0 0.1 0.2 4.3
13-7 6.1% 3.2% 3.2% 15.7 0.1 0.1 5.9
12-8 8.6% 1.5% 1.5% 15.8 0.0 0.1 8.5
11-9 10.8% 0.8% 0.8% 15.9 0.0 0.1 10.7
10-10 11.7% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.1 11.6
9-11 12.0% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 12.0
8-12 11.4% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 11.4
7-13 10.1% 10.1
6-14 7.9% 7.9
5-15 5.1% 5.1
4-16 3.5% 3.5
3-17 2.0% 2.0
2-18 0.7% 0.7
1-19 0.2% 0.2
0-20 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 1.5% 1.5% 0.0% 15.5 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.9 98.5 0.0%