Lafayette
Patriot League
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-4.0#240
Expected Predictive Rating-5.9#267
Pace64.3#316
Improvement+1.1#76

Offense
Total Offense-3.6#279
First Shot-1.9#234
After Offensive Rebound-1.8#266
Layup/Dunks+1.4#124
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.4#341
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.9#117
Freethrows-1.7#268
Improvement+1.2#43

Defense
Total Defense-0.4#183
First Shot+0.2#169
After Offensive Rebounds-0.5#222
Layups/Dunks-4.7#321
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.5#166
3 Pt Jumpshots+4.2#51
Freethrows+0.2#175
Improvement-0.1#211
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 14.3% 15.3% 9.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.4 15.4 15.7
.500 or above 64.1% 68.4% 42.8%
.500 or above in Conference 73.7% 75.9% 62.9%
Conference Champion 18.4% 19.7% 11.7%
Last Place in Conference 4.1% 3.6% 6.9%
First Four5.7% 5.8% 5.4%
First Round11.6% 12.6% 7.0%
Second Round0.3% 0.4% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: LIU Brooklyn (Home) - 83.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 20 - 20 - 3
Quad 31 - 41 - 7
Quad 416 - 717 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 69   @ Villanova L 63-75 9%     0 - 1 -1.0 -3.8 +2.6
  Nov 09, 2024 121   @ La Salle L 60-81 18%     0 - 2 -15.1 -10.0 -4.9
  Nov 12, 2024 267   Penn W 65-63 67%     1 - 2 -6.5 -2.1 -4.1
  Nov 16, 2024 170   @ Cornell L 71-81 27%     1 - 3 -7.6 -1.7 -6.0
  Nov 20, 2024 113   @ Rhode Island L 72-86 16%     1 - 4 -7.3 -1.5 -5.3
  Nov 29, 2024 338   LIU Brooklyn W 75-65 83%    
  Nov 30, 2024 324   Niagara W 72-64 77%    
  Dec 01, 2024 330   Binghamton W 71-62 79%    
  Dec 07, 2024 359   @ Mercyhurst W 66-59 75%    
  Dec 18, 2024 143   @ George Washington L 68-76 23%    
  Dec 21, 2024 289   @ Portland L 67-68 49%    
  Dec 29, 2024 343   Stonehill W 71-60 85%    
  Jan 02, 2025 286   Boston University W 68-63 69%    
  Jan 05, 2025 309   @ Navy W 68-67 55%    
  Jan 08, 2025 235   @ Bucknell L 65-68 38%    
  Jan 11, 2025 316   Holy Cross W 73-65 75%    
  Jan 15, 2025 293   @ Army L 63-64 50%    
  Jan 18, 2025 189   Colgate W 65-64 51%    
  Jan 22, 2025 335   @ Loyola Maryland W 67-63 63%    
  Jan 25, 2025 283   @ Lehigh L 70-71 47%    
  Jan 29, 2025 260   American W 67-63 64%    
  Feb 01, 2025 189   @ Colgate L 61-67 31%    
  Feb 05, 2025 335   Loyola Maryland W 70-60 80%    
  Feb 08, 2025 309   Navy W 71-64 74%    
  Feb 10, 2025 260   @ American L 64-66 44%    
  Feb 15, 2025 235   Bucknell W 68-65 59%    
  Feb 19, 2025 316   @ Holy Cross W 70-68 56%    
  Feb 22, 2025 283   Lehigh W 73-68 67%    
  Feb 25, 2025 293   Army W 67-61 69%    
  Mar 01, 2025 286   @ Boston University L 65-66 47%    
Projected Record 16 - 14 10 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Patriot League Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 1.7 3.9 5.1 4.2 2.3 0.8 0.2 18.4 1st
2nd 0.0 0.4 2.9 5.9 4.8 2.2 0.6 0.0 16.8 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.4 3.3 6.2 3.8 1.0 0.1 14.8 3rd
4th 0.0 0.2 2.7 5.9 3.0 0.6 0.0 12.3 4th
5th 0.1 2.0 5.3 2.7 0.3 0.0 10.5 5th
6th 0.1 1.4 4.0 2.6 0.3 0.0 8.4 6th
7th 0.1 1.0 3.2 2.5 0.4 0.0 7.3 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.7 2.2 1.9 0.4 0.0 5.4 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.6 1.2 0.3 0.0 3.9 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.8 0.5 0.1 0.0 2.2 10th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.6 2.9 4.7 7.0 9.1 11.4 12.6 12.6 11.9 9.7 7.3 4.7 2.3 0.8 0.2 Total



Patriot League Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.2    0.2
17-1 100.0% 0.8    0.8 0.0
16-2 98.2% 2.3    2.2 0.1
15-3 87.9% 4.2    3.5 0.7 0.0
14-4 69.3% 5.1    3.3 1.6 0.2 0.0
13-5 40.4% 3.9    1.7 1.8 0.5 0.0 0.0
12-6 13.9% 1.7    0.3 0.7 0.5 0.1 0.0
11-7 1.7% 0.2    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
9-9 0.0%
Total 18.4% 18.4 12.0 4.9 1.2 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.2% 58.7% 58.7% 12.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
17-1 0.8% 46.9% 46.9% 13.6 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.5
16-2 2.3% 41.7% 41.7% 14.3 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.1 1.4
15-3 4.7% 35.6% 35.6% 14.8 0.1 0.4 0.8 0.3 3.0
14-4 7.3% 29.7% 29.7% 15.2 0.0 0.3 1.0 0.9 5.2
13-5 9.7% 23.4% 23.4% 15.6 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.5 7.4
12-6 11.9% 17.9% 17.9% 15.8 0.0 0.3 1.8 9.8
11-7 12.6% 14.0% 14.0% 15.9 0.0 0.2 1.6 10.9
10-8 12.6% 9.6% 9.6% 16.0 0.0 1.2 11.4
9-9 11.4% 7.9% 7.9% 16.0 0.0 0.9 10.5
8-10 9.1% 4.6% 4.6% 16.0 0.4 8.7
7-11 7.0% 2.5% 2.5% 16.0 0.2 6.8
6-12 4.7% 1.4% 1.4% 16.0 0.1 4.7
5-13 2.9% 1.2% 1.2% 16.0 0.0 2.8
4-14 1.6% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.0 1.6
3-15 0.6% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.0 0.6
2-16 0.3% 0.3
1-17 0.1% 0.1
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 14.3% 14.3% 0.0% 15.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.4 3.5 8.9 85.7 0.0%