Morehead St.
Ohio Valley
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-6.1#279
Expected Predictive Rating-5.7#264
Pace64.4#315
Improvement+0.7#106

Offense
Total Offense-5.1#318
First Shot-3.9#288
After Offensive Rebound-1.2#245
Layup/Dunks+2.5#96
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.4#250
3 Pt Jumpshots-10.5#362
Freethrows+5.5#8
Improvement+0.1#151

Defense
Total Defense-1.0#200
First Shot+0.9#151
After Offensive Rebounds-1.9#293
Layups/Dunks-3.6#292
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.5#36
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.7#64
Freethrows-1.7#273
Improvement+0.5#106
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 14.4% 17.3% 11.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.6 15.5 15.8
.500 or above 50.3% 62.8% 37.3%
.500 or above in Conference 74.4% 80.1% 68.6%
Conference Champion 19.3% 24.1% 14.2%
Last Place in Conference 3.4% 2.1% 4.7%
First Four7.5% 8.0% 7.0%
First Round10.8% 13.6% 8.0%
Second Round0.2% 0.3% 0.2%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Austin Peay (Home) - 51.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 10 - 3
Quad 31 - 41 - 6
Quad 414 - 915 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 46   @ Louisville L 45-93 5%     0 - 1 -35.1 -24.8 -7.4
  Nov 08, 2024 18   @ Cincinnati L 56-83 3%     0 - 2 -9.9 -1.9 -11.4
  Nov 14, 2024 168   @ Chattanooga L 62-76 21%     0 - 3 -11.6 -11.2 -0.1
  Nov 20, 2024 231   Austin Peay W 65-64 51%    
  Nov 27, 2024 360   NJIT W 68-59 78%    
  Nov 29, 2024 219   @ Cleveland St. L 63-69 28%    
  Dec 04, 2024 195   @ Marshall L 66-74 24%    
  Dec 07, 2024 156   @ Ohio L 66-75 20%    
  Dec 19, 2024 302   Tennessee Martin W 73-69 65%    
  Dec 21, 2024 297   Tennessee St. W 70-66 64%    
  Dec 31, 2024 323   @ Southern Indiana L 66-67 49%    
  Jan 04, 2025 332   @ Tennessee Tech W 66-65 55%    
  Jan 09, 2025 247   @ Arkansas Little Rock L 66-71 34%    
  Jan 11, 2025 322   @ Southeast Missouri St. L 69-70 49%    
  Jan 16, 2025 325   Western Illinois W 66-60 70%    
  Jan 18, 2025 355   Lindenwood W 73-62 83%    
  Jan 23, 2025 315   @ Eastern Illinois L 66-67 47%    
  Jan 25, 2025 269   @ SIU Edwardsville L 63-67 38%    
  Jan 28, 2025 323   Southern Indiana W 70-64 69%    
  Jan 30, 2025 332   Tennessee Tech W 69-62 74%    
  Feb 06, 2025 322   Southeast Missouri St. W 73-67 69%    
  Feb 08, 2025 247   Arkansas Little Rock W 69-68 54%    
  Feb 13, 2025 355   @ Lindenwood W 70-65 67%    
  Feb 15, 2025 325   Western Illinois W 66-60 70%    
  Feb 20, 2025 269   SIU Edwardsville W 66-64 58%    
  Feb 22, 2025 315   Eastern Illinois W 69-64 68%    
  Feb 27, 2025 297   @ Tennessee St. L 67-69 43%    
  Mar 01, 2025 302   @ Tennessee Martin L 70-72 44%    
Projected Record 14 - 14 12 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Ohio Valley Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.7 2.7 4.5 4.6 3.6 2.1 0.9 0.2 19.3 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 1.3 4.1 5.0 3.4 1.2 0.3 0.0 15.4 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.4 4.6 4.8 2.1 0.5 0.0 13.5 3rd
4th 0.1 1.1 4.2 4.3 1.4 0.2 0.0 11.1 4th
5th 0.0 0.8 3.6 4.1 1.2 0.1 9.7 5th
6th 0.0 0.5 2.8 3.8 1.1 0.1 0.0 8.2 6th
7th 0.0 0.3 2.0 3.3 1.2 0.1 0.0 7.0 7th
8th 0.0 0.3 1.7 2.7 1.2 0.1 6.0 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.2 1.8 1.0 0.1 4.6 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.9 1.3 0.6 0.1 3.4 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.2 0.0 1.9 11th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 1.0 1.8 3.1 4.5 6.3 8.2 9.8 10.9 11.6 11.0 9.9 8.3 5.8 3.9 2.1 0.9 0.2 Total



Ohio Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.2    0.2
19-1 100.0% 0.9    0.9 0.0
18-2 98.9% 2.1    2.0 0.1
17-3 92.8% 3.6    3.2 0.4 0.0
16-4 78.7% 4.6    3.4 1.1 0.1
15-5 53.6% 4.5    2.4 1.7 0.3 0.0
14-6 26.7% 2.7    0.9 1.2 0.5 0.1 0.0
13-7 6.4% 0.7    0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.7% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 19.3% 19.3 13.1 4.7 1.2 0.3 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.2% 60.5% 60.5% 13.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
19-1 0.9% 54.1% 54.1% 14.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.4
18-2 2.1% 48.0% 48.0% 14.8 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.2 1.1
17-3 3.9% 42.2% 42.2% 15.2 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.8 0.6 2.2
16-4 5.8% 37.6% 37.6% 15.6 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.4 3.6
15-5 8.3% 30.9% 30.9% 15.9 0.0 0.4 2.2 5.8
14-6 9.9% 24.4% 24.4% 15.9 0.0 0.1 2.3 7.5
13-7 11.0% 15.9% 15.9% 16.0 0.0 1.7 9.3
12-8 11.6% 9.0% 9.0% 16.0 0.0 1.0 10.5
11-9 10.9% 5.3% 5.3% 16.0 0.0 0.6 10.3
10-10 9.8% 3.2% 3.2% 16.0 0.3 9.5
9-11 8.2% 1.9% 1.9% 16.0 0.2 8.1
8-12 6.3% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.1 6.3
7-13 4.5% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 4.4
6-14 3.1% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 3.0
5-15 1.8% 1.8
4-16 1.0% 1.0
3-17 0.4% 0.4
2-18 0.2% 0.2
1-19 0.1% 0.1
0-20 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 14.4% 14.4% 0.0% 15.6 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.9 2.6 10.6 85.6 0.0%