Morehead St.
Ohio Valley
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-6.6#281
Expected Predictive Rating-5.9#267
Pace64.6#288
Improvement+1.5#86

Offense
Total Offense-3.6#277
First Shot-2.8#258
After Offensive Rebound-0.8#236
Layup/Dunks-1.0#216
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.1#114
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.8#299
Freethrows+1.0#119
Improvement+0.8#113

Defense
Total Defense-3.0#269
First Shot-2.2#248
After Offensive Rebounds-0.8#254
Layups/Dunks+0.2#164
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.2#345
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.8#72
Freethrows-2.0#308
Improvement+0.6#140
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 13.2% 15.5% 8.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.8 15.8 15.9
.500 or above 48.6% 56.5% 31.3%
.500 or above in Conference 76.6% 83.2% 62.0%
Conference Champion 19.3% 23.7% 9.7%
Last Place in Conference 2.7% 1.4% 5.4%
First Four7.7% 8.7% 5.5%
First Round9.2% 11.1% 5.2%
Second Round0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Tennessee St. (Home) - 68.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 10 - 2
Quad 31 - 41 - 6
Quad 413 - 914 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 51   @ Louisville L 45-93 4%     0 - 1 -34.8 -24.5 -7.4
  Nov 08, 2024 26   @ Cincinnati L 56-83 3%     0 - 2 -10.3 +0.2 -13.8
  Nov 14, 2024 183   @ Chattanooga L 62-76 21%     0 - 3 -12.1 -12.8 +0.9
  Nov 20, 2024 273   Austin Peay W 63-58 59%     1 - 3 -4.1 -3.1 -0.3
  Nov 27, 2024 352   NJIT L 69-78 71%     1 - 4 -21.5 +1.5 -24.0
  Nov 29, 2024 224   @ Cleveland St. W 71-69 27%     2 - 4 +1.8 +1.0 +0.8
  Dec 04, 2024 190   @ Marshall L 77-80 21%     2 - 5 -1.3 +6.5 -7.8
  Dec 07, 2024 149   @ Ohio L 76-88 17%     2 - 6 -8.6 -0.1 -8.1
  Dec 19, 2024 324   Tennessee Martin W 70-69 OT 71%     3 - 6 1 - 0 -11.3 -9.3 -2.0
  Dec 21, 2024 316   Tennessee St. W 75-70 69%    
  Dec 31, 2024 282   @ Southern Indiana L 68-71 39%    
  Jan 04, 2025 328   @ Tennessee Tech L 69-70 49%    
  Jan 09, 2025 243   @ Arkansas Little Rock L 64-69 32%    
  Jan 11, 2025 289   @ Southeast Missouri St. L 68-71 40%    
  Jan 16, 2025 331   Western Illinois W 69-63 72%    
  Jan 18, 2025 351   Lindenwood W 73-64 79%    
  Jan 23, 2025 327   @ Eastern Illinois L 67-68 49%    
  Jan 25, 2025 269   @ SIU Edwardsville L 64-68 36%    
  Jan 28, 2025 282   Southern Indiana W 71-68 61%    
  Jan 30, 2025 328   Tennessee Tech W 73-67 70%    
  Feb 06, 2025 289   Southeast Missouri St. W 71-68 61%    
  Feb 08, 2025 243   Arkansas Little Rock W 67-66 54%    
  Feb 13, 2025 351   @ Lindenwood W 70-67 60%    
  Feb 15, 2025 331   Western Illinois W 69-63 72%    
  Feb 20, 2025 269   SIU Edwardsville W 67-65 57%    
  Feb 22, 2025 327   Eastern Illinois W 70-64 69%    
  Feb 27, 2025 316   @ Tennessee St. L 72-73 47%    
  Mar 01, 2025 324   @ Tennessee Martin L 69-70 49%    
Projected Record 14 - 14 12 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Ohio Valley Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 1.4 4.1 5.2 4.3 2.5 1.2 0.3 0.1 19.3 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 2.2 5.2 5.0 2.3 0.6 0.1 0.0 15.6 2nd
3rd 0.1 2.2 5.7 4.4 1.2 0.2 0.0 13.8 3rd
4th 0.0 1.3 5.5 3.9 1.0 0.1 11.8 4th
5th 0.0 0.7 4.4 4.3 0.9 0.1 10.4 5th
6th 0.0 0.4 3.1 4.1 1.0 0.0 8.6 6th
7th 0.2 1.9 3.6 1.2 0.1 7.0 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 1.1 2.8 1.3 0.1 0.0 5.5 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.8 1.8 1.3 0.2 4.1 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.1 0.9 0.1 2.8 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 1.2 11th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 1.0 2.3 4.1 6.5 8.9 11.2 13.2 12.9 12.1 10.4 7.7 5.0 2.6 1.2 0.3 0.1 Total



Ohio Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
19-1 100.0% 0.3    0.3
18-2 99.0% 1.2    1.2 0.0
17-3 97.1% 2.5    2.3 0.2 0.0
16-4 86.9% 4.3    3.5 0.8 0.0
15-5 67.8% 5.2    3.3 1.6 0.2 0.0
14-6 39.4% 4.1    1.7 1.8 0.6 0.1 0.0
13-7 11.7% 1.4    0.2 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0
12-8 1.5% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0
11-9 0.0% 0.0    0.0
10-10 0.0%
Total 19.3% 19.3 12.6 5.0 1.3 0.3 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.1% 45.2% 45.2% 12.6 0.0 0.0 0.0
19-1 0.3% 55.3% 55.3% 14.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1
18-2 1.2% 42.9% 42.9% 14.8 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.7
17-3 2.6% 41.5% 41.5% 15.3 0.0 0.1 0.6 0.4 1.5
16-4 5.0% 36.8% 36.8% 15.7 0.0 0.5 1.3 3.2
15-5 7.7% 30.5% 30.5% 15.9 0.0 0.2 2.1 5.3
14-6 10.4% 25.5% 25.5% 16.0 0.1 2.5 7.7
13-7 12.1% 16.3% 16.3% 16.0 0.0 1.9 10.1
12-8 12.9% 9.8% 9.8% 16.0 0.0 1.2 11.6
11-9 13.2% 5.8% 5.8% 16.0 0.0 0.8 12.5
10-10 11.2% 3.2% 3.2% 16.0 0.4 10.8
9-11 8.9% 2.0% 2.0% 16.0 0.2 8.7
8-12 6.5% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.1 6.4
7-13 4.1% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 4.1
6-14 2.3% 2.3
5-15 1.0% 1.0
4-16 0.4% 0.4
3-17 0.2% 0.2
2-18 0.0% 0.0
1-19 0.0% 0.0
0-20
Total 100% 13.2% 13.2% 0.0% 15.8 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.8 11.0 86.8 0.0%