North Dakota
Summit League
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-4.7#253
Expected Predictive Rating+1.8#164
Pace70.3#150
Improvement+2.2#19

Offense
Total Offense-2.4#243
First Shot+0.4#160
After Offensive Rebound-2.8#316
Layup/Dunks-0.7#202
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.7#134
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.9#207
Freethrows+1.3#121
Improvement+1.2#40

Defense
Total Defense-2.4#251
First Shot-3.8#294
After Offensive Rebounds+1.5#90
Layups/Dunks-11.9#364
2 Pt Jumpshots-4.9#356
3 Pt Jumpshots+9.7#9
Freethrows+3.2#38
Improvement+0.9#59
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 7.2% 10.0% 6.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.0 14.6 15.1
.500 or above 29.1% 47.6% 23.8%
.500 or above in Conference 46.6% 57.9% 43.4%
Conference Champion 7.9% 12.3% 6.7%
Last Place in Conference 17.1% 11.1% 18.8%
First Four1.9% 1.6% 1.9%
First Round6.3% 9.3% 5.4%
Second Round0.2% 0.3% 0.2%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Loyola Marymount (Away) - 22.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 20 - 4
Quad 33 - 63 - 10
Quad 49 - 612 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 101   @ Colorado St. L 56-82 12%     0 - 1 -18.2 -15.8 -0.8
  Nov 14, 2024 136   Utah Valley W 77-71 37%     1 - 1 +4.7 +5.0 -0.4
  Nov 19, 2024 53   @ Notre Dame L 58-75 7%     1 - 2 -4.7 -6.2 +0.9
  Nov 22, 2024 154   @ Loyola Marymount L 65-73 22%    
  Nov 26, 2024 287   Bethune-Cookman W 73-71 56%    
  Dec 04, 2024 243   @ Eastern Washington L 76-80 37%    
  Dec 07, 2024 227   Weber St. W 70-69 55%    
  Dec 11, 2024 136   @ Utah Valley L 66-75 20%    
  Dec 15, 2024 273   Texas San Antonio W 79-75 64%    
  Dec 18, 2024 7   Alabama L 71-91 4%    
  Jan 02, 2025 259   Nebraska Omaha W 75-72 62%    
  Jan 04, 2025 168   St. Thomas L 72-73 46%    
  Jan 09, 2025 294   @ Denver L 76-77 48%    
  Jan 11, 2025 249   @ Oral Roberts L 73-76 39%    
  Jan 16, 2025 153   @ South Dakota St. L 72-80 24%    
  Jan 18, 2025 217   UMKC W 71-70 53%    
  Jan 23, 2025 239   South Dakota W 78-76 58%    
  Jan 25, 2025 241   @ North Dakota St. L 70-74 37%    
  Feb 01, 2025 153   South Dakota St. L 75-77 42%    
  Feb 06, 2025 259   @ Nebraska Omaha L 72-75 41%    
  Feb 08, 2025 217   @ UMKC L 68-73 33%    
  Feb 13, 2025 294   Denver W 79-74 68%    
  Feb 15, 2025 249   Oral Roberts W 76-73 60%    
  Feb 22, 2025 241   North Dakota St. W 73-71 58%    
  Feb 27, 2025 168   @ St. Thomas L 69-76 26%    
  Mar 01, 2025 239   @ South Dakota L 75-79 37%    
Projected Record 11 - 15 7 - 9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Summit League Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.5 1.7 2.4 2.0 0.9 0.3 0.1 7.9 1st
2nd 0.0 1.0 3.3 3.5 1.5 0.3 0.0 9.6 2nd
3rd 0.0 1.1 4.6 3.9 1.1 0.1 0.0 10.9 3rd
4th 0.0 0.9 5.3 4.3 1.0 0.0 11.7 4th
5th 0.0 0.9 5.3 5.3 1.0 0.0 0.0 12.5 5th
6th 0.0 0.8 4.6 5.6 1.2 0.0 12.2 6th
7th 0.1 1.0 4.3 5.6 1.4 0.0 12.5 7th
8th 0.0 0.3 1.6 4.1 4.5 1.3 0.1 11.8 8th
9th 0.2 1.1 2.5 3.5 2.6 0.8 0.0 10.8 9th
Total 0.2 1.1 2.8 5.1 7.7 10.4 12.6 13.3 12.9 11.0 8.8 6.4 4.0 2.3 0.9 0.3 0.1 Total



Summit League Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
15-1 100.0% 0.3    0.3
14-2 97.9% 0.9    0.8 0.1
13-3 85.8% 2.0    1.5 0.4 0.0
12-4 60.6% 2.4    1.3 1.0 0.1 0.0
11-5 27.0% 1.7    0.5 0.8 0.4 0.1
10-6 5.6% 0.5    0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0
9-7 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
8-8 0.0%
Total 7.9% 7.9 4.5 2.4 0.8 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0 0.1% 75.0% 75.0% 12.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
15-1 0.3% 52.6% 52.6% 13.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1
14-2 0.9% 34.5% 34.5% 13.3 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.6
13-3 2.3% 28.4% 28.4% 13.9 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.0 1.7
12-4 4.0% 23.2% 23.2% 14.3 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.0 3.0
11-5 6.4% 16.2% 16.2% 14.7 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.1 5.4
10-6 8.8% 12.9% 12.9% 15.2 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.4 7.7
9-7 11.0% 8.2% 8.2% 15.5 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.5 10.1
8-8 12.9% 6.1% 6.1% 15.7 0.0 0.2 0.6 12.1
7-9 13.3% 4.7% 4.7% 15.9 0.0 0.6 12.7
6-10 12.6% 2.6% 2.6% 16.0 0.0 0.3 12.3
5-11 10.4% 1.4% 1.4% 16.0 0.1 10.3
4-12 7.7% 1.0% 1.0% 16.0 0.1 7.7
3-13 5.1% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 5.1
2-14 2.8% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 2.8
1-15 1.1% 1.1
0-16 0.2% 0.2
Total 100% 7.2% 7.2% 0.0% 15.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.4 2.2 2.8 92.8 0.0%